Big XII on Last Legs
By Bruce Marshall
"A chain is only as strong as its weakest link" - Anonymous
We’ve seen the above quote many times in many places, including countless references to sport. But we have to wonder if its inverse might actually be true as the college conference landscape gets set for another round of ground shifting in the coming months.
Perhaps "a conference is as weak as its strongest link" would be more appropriate.
That would certainly seem to apply to the current doings in the Big XII, which is providing an ongoing forum in human behavior, not to mention a socio-economic lesson to proceedings in flyover country.
Whatever, the Big XII is on the ropes. And after plenty of shifting of tectonic plates in the college sports world over the past two years, the pending rupture in the Big XII will reverberate like a magnitude 9.0 earthquake.
The Big XII as we have known it was doomed over a year ago. It might be doomed completely by this time next year.
Texas A&M’s recent announcement that it is leaving the conference came as no surprise to anyone who has been following developments in the region. The Aggies have been seething forever at playing second fiddle to the University of Texas. And when the Pac-10 (now Pac-12) came calling last year, looking to annex most of the Big XII South to become the Pac-16 instead, it was A&M that initially put the brakes to the chatter. More specifically, ex-coach and Board member Gene Stallings, who not-so-gently suggested that the Aggies didn’t have to follow Texas anywhere, and that a move to the SEC would be in A&M’s better interests. That slowed down the secession talk long enough for the Big XII to plug the leaks in its dike and temporarily emerge as a 10-team league after the departures of Nebraska and Colorado, while giving the Longhorns their blessing of creating a new TV network along with ESPN.
All of that, however, was done through clenched teeth everywhere except Austin. But the seeds of the Big XII’s demise had been sewn long ago.
Political scientists would be well-served to take note of the Big XII and college athletic conference mechanics, and big-time sports in general, which provide their own test-tubes for various ideologies. That college sports, football in particular, has emerged as a massive money-maker is only part of the equation. It’s how the riches are to be divided that has set the stage for unrest and conference shifting, and will continue to do so in the future.
The NFL remains the standard to which all sports organizations, pro and college, aspire, but human nature being as it is, it’s not easy for other entities to play by similar rules. Simply, the NFL splits its collectively-negotiated revenue, via TV and its NFL Properties merchandising division, equally among its members. Credit former commissioner Pete Rozelle for hammering that idea home to the ownership group as the NFL entered the big time in the 1960s. Thus, nobody is getting richer or poorer than anyone else in the now 32-team NFL. Whatever differences in revenues have to do with stadium lease deals, luxury suites/ticket sales, and other factors. But the biggest money generators, the network TV deals, are divided equally.
Pro football differs from other sports in that the network TV deal is its biggest cash cow. Baseball has long grappled with inherent inequities in the sale of local broadcasting rights, which are fairly inconsequential in the NFL model but a very big deal in MLB, which still hasn’t figured out a way to level the playing field between the Yankees, Royals and others that generate such a disparate amount of local broadcast dollars. Unlike the NFL, the network TV deals are not the most important revenue source in baseball. The NBA and NHL have tried to mimic the NFL model as best as they could, but have been hamstrung by short-sighted Collective Bargaining Agreements that have turned franchise ownership mostly into a money-losing enterprise. Across the pond, European sport, soccer in particular, continues to struggle with the revenue inequity arguments that have forever tilted the playing fields to the advantage of the big-money clubs such as Manchester United, Real Madrid, and Barcelona.
Colleges have a similar set of circumstances, but not every conference works under the same sets of rules. Here, the Big Ten has actually set the standard, with an equal split of its TV revenues among its members, who all rake in the same amounts from deals with ESPN, ABC, and the recently-created Big Ten Network. The SEC also splits its TV revenues among member institutions. Unlike the NFL, however, colleges mostly go it alone on their merchandising deals; Minnesota doesn’t get a dime of Ohio State souvenir sales, and vice versa.
Still, TV money is hugely important in college sport, and the fair, or rather unfair, division of it can be a source of acrimony. Such as it has been in the Big XII, where conference-wide TV deals have always been slanted toward the power schools. Texas and Iowa State have never been equal partners in the Big XII TV lode. The Pac-10, in its former configuration, had a similarly imbalanced TV revenue formula.
The Pac-10, now Pac-12, saw the light, however, and its renegotiated TV contracts, spearheaded by visionary new commissioner Larry Scott, are now splitting the riches. Meanwhile, what’s left of the Big XII, though having signed lucrative new TV deals in the last year, still slants toward Texas, especially since the Longhorns have teamed with ESPN to form their own network.
We should let history decide whether that move turns out to be folly; our early thoughts are that the Longhorn Network is a case of ESPN biting off more than it can chew, and that there is no real market for the enterprise outside of the Lone Star State. Whatever the fate of the Longhorn Network, the sounds you hear from the midlands are the gnashing of teeth by other remaining Big XII members having to again play second fiddle to the Longhorns.
Simply, college sports, and sports in general, function a lot better with elements of socialism built into the revenue splits. At least those revenues that are collectively negotiated. When that basic economic tenet is altered, the foundation of the alliance is forever at risk. Which is exactly what has happened in the Big XII.
What is ironic is that none other than Texas is apparently wondering again if it ought to abandon the Big XII and hitch up with the likes of Oklahoma, and likely Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, in a belated bolt to the Pac-12, an idea first broached last year by aforementioned commissioner Scott, who wanted to annex most of the Big XII South and Colorado a year ago. Now, however, with A&M casting its eyes upon the SEC and Oklahoma apparently leaning toward alignment with the Pac-12, Texas sees the handwriting on the wall. The Big XII, in danger of losing more schools than A&M, risks becoming a watered-down regional league not too different from the Mountain West on Conference USA. Suddenly, Texas’ future, either in the Big XII or as an independent, doesn’t seem quite as appealing.
What should we expect? Don’t be surprised if A&M sits in limbo for a little while; like Noah’s Ark, such conference moves are best made in pairs, and it is doubtful the SEC will officially welcome the Aggies until a partner school can be found. It won’t be hard, as candidates will be scurrying to get into the queue. Any delay is nothing more than a formality, with the only question being if the SEC wants to add one more school along with A&M to reach 14 teams, or go whole hog and add three more to get to the magic 16 level, where many observers believe all of the big leagues are eventually to be headed anyway.
Who joins A&M in the SEC? Oklahoma would be a natural addition, but school president David Bren, a former US senator, is apparently not interested in joining such a lawless alliance. Reports are that he would much rather the Sooners look west to the Pac-12, and bring along Oklahoma State. Missouri, however, is one Big XII school itching to escape from the current alliance; the Tigers were reportedly crestfallen at being bypassed for Big Ten membership last year in favor of Nebraska. Mizzou brings a new fan base and TV markets to the SEC, so the Tigers would not apparently ruffle any existing feathers in the SEC, which needs "yay" votes from only 9 of its 12 members to expand. If the SEC is really hungry for exposure in the Lone Star State beyond A&M, it could also court TCU (which would probably unravel its deal with the Big East, pronto, to hook up with the SEC), or perhaps Texas Tech. Sources say the current SEC membership might not look favorably upon adding any more Florida schools, of which Florida State and Miami might be candidates, simply because the Gators from Gainesville would frown upon it. Virginia Tech has also been mentioned as a possibility and certainly fits the SEC football prototype. As might Clemson and Georgia Tech (once an SEC member itself), although in-state South Carolina and Georgia might object to the Tigers and Yellow Jackets, respectively.
We expect that before the 2012 football season commences, the future of the Big XII will be determined. A&M is on the way out, and we suspect Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri are ready to bolt as well. We suspect the chances are about 50-50 that Texas decides to go to the Pac-12 along with the Oklahoma schools and perhaps Texas Tech, although the Longhorn Network could pose problems. The Longhorns could also do an about-face and tell the SEC that they’re interested, but we find that scenario to be very unlikely; the Horns would not want to go anywhere they might not be the big boys on the block.
Texas’ future, should it stay aligned with what is left of the Big XII, would diminish its appeal. Should Texas bolt, either for another conference or independent status, we suppose the likes of Baylor, Iowa State, and the Kansas schools could try to cobble together a "new" Big XII alliance (how about reinstating the old "Big 8" name?) with the likes of Houston, SMU, perhaps BYU, and maybe another current Conference USA school. Which is why we won’t at all be surprised to see the Kansas schools and, if anyone is interested, Iowa State and Baylor, soon look to secure their futures somewhere outside of the Big XII as well. Stay tuned for further developments, which could include a domino effect with other leagues outside of the region (Big Ten, ACC, and Big East) looking to make further moves as the college landscape realigns.
Whatever, the grand plan of the Big XII, hatched in 1996, now looks to be in shambles, thanks mainly to Texas’ hubris and greed. Ironically, all of these shenanigans, including most of the inane conference shifting of the past two decades, could have been avoided by instituting a real college football playoff, and the riches it could deliver. As we mentioned last autumn, picking up a copy of Dan Wetzel & Co.’s excellent book, Death to the BCS, will spell out things exactly.
Another subject, however, for another day.