Biggest Bowl Mismatches and Trends

Biggest Bowl Mismatches and Trends
By DAVID PAYNE

Statistical matchups or trends: Which are more important in handicapping bowl games?

Heck, why not have both?

Major mismatches

Penn State’s pass rush vs. LSU’s pass protection: Penn State’s 35 sacks were tops in the Big Ten and tied for eighth nationally. Louisiana State was last in the SEC in sacks allowed, giving up nearly three a game (2.92).

Houston’s 112th-ranked run defense vs. Air Force’s third-ranked rushing offense.

Bowling Green’s eighth-ranked passing offense vs. Idaho’s 114th-ranked pass defense.

Ohio’s opportunistic defense vs. Marshall’s turnover-prone offense: Ohio has benefited from 36 turnovers this season, tops in the nation. Marshall has turned it over 21 times and has a -.41 turnover margin.

Texas’ fourth-ranked kickoff return team vs. Alabama’s 117th-ranked kickoff return defense.

Navy’s discipline vs. Missouri’s discipline: The Midshipmen average only 3.4 penalties per game, fewest in the nation. The Tigers average nearly six per game.

Nevada’s fourth-ranked third down offense vs. SMU’s 97th-ranked third down defense: Opponents converted nearly 43 percent of their third down opportunities against the Mustangs. The Wolf Pack has converted nearly 52 percent of its third downs.

Five biggest strength-of-schedule mismatches

(Strength of schedule rankings according to the Sagarin Ratings)

EagleBank Bowl, Dec. 29: Temple (114) vs. UCLA (11)

International Bowl, Jan. 2: Northern Illinois (125) vs. South Florida (50)

Outback Bowl, Jan. 1: Northwestern (88) vs. Auburn (14)

Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1: Penn State (80) vs. LSU (18)

Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 22: BYU (77) vs. Oregon State (15)

Conference Bowl ATS records since 2004

SEC: 22-15
Big 12: 19-19
MWC: 13-9
Big 10: 13-13
Big East: 10-10
WAC: 9-9
Independents: 5-5
Pac-10: 15-15
ACC: 18-17
CUSA: 14-14
Sunbelt: 4-4
MAC: 6-12

Jet Leg

Bowl teams traveling the furthest are 26-57 ATS the past three years.

Home-state advantage

Teams playing their bowl game in their home state are 22-11 ATS the past three years.

Underdogs Rule

In the last five bowl seasons, underdogs getting six points or more are 98-75 ATS. Double-digit bowl dogs are 14-8 during that stretch. Those two tasty trends come courteous of Allen Moody, About.com’s sportsbetting blogger.

Underdogs Really Rule

Over the last 23 years, bowl favorites coming off two or more straight-up losses are 7-21 ATS. That one from Covers member PistolPete21