Books Clean Up - Again
By Micah Roberts
The tide has officially turned. After weeks of waiting for the NFL’s worst teams to show up against whatever number the Las Vegas Sportsbooks hung on the board, Week 11 had two of the leagues worst teams not only show up, but beat two of the leagues best teams.
Kansas City, an 11 1/2-point underdog, beat Pittsburgh 27-24 while Oakland, a 9-point dog, beat Cincinnati.
Through the first eight weeks of the season, the Sportsbooks had been inflating the line in hopes that eventually some of the leagues bad teams would find some takers. The public had been getting the best of the books all season, including the worst day in Las Vegas Sportsbook history in Week 7, but things have definitely shifted back into the books favor over the last four weeks.
“It was a good day for the books, said Lucky‘s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro. “Anytime you get that many underdogs to come through, we’ll do okay.”
The dogs once again did well going 8-5-1 against the number.
“We did well with the Chiefs and Washington early, and poorly with the Colts winning. We opened the Ravens a 1-point favorite and closed the Colts minus-1,” said Vaccaro,
The Colts continue to be the public’s steady source of reliability pushing their record to 10-0 and 7-3 against the spread.
“In the late games we actually needed Cincinnati against Oakland. We opened the Bengals minus-9 and closed at 7.5,” said Vaccaro. “San Diego was another game that didn’t go well for us. We opened the game minus-3.5, went to 4, 5, and then closed at 6. We couldn’t get any Broncos action, Looking at Chris Simms, it was like he was looking for his Dad (Phil Simms) to come in.”
The Broncos definitely got off on the wrong foot with Simms, who couldn’t muster anything in the pivotal AFC West game that saw the Chargers roll 32-3. The game had been off the board all week at most Las Vegas Books and wasn’t hung until late Saturday.
Tampa Bay still showed their true colors with a 38-7 loss to New Orleans, but overall, the books can’t ask for anything more than what was shown in Week 11 where the statement “On Any Given Sunday” still means something.
Woozy Warner
Everyone has kind of been mystified how Cardinals QB Kurt Warner has been able to stay around the league so long without having any type of injury since 2005 that has kept him out of a game. On Sunday, he took a hit from the Rams that took him out the game, which gave the reigns to back-up Matt Leinart with a 21-3 lead. Leinart held on to win 21-13, but gave up what looked to a be a certain cover for Cardinal bettors.
"It was one of those situations where I didn't feel perfect, so I just wanted to be cautious with it," Warner said after the game. "I actually feel pretty good right now. Just a very, very slight headache. I remember everything that happened. I didn't get knocked out."
Thanksgiving Thursday
The Packers-Lions and Raiders-Cowboys games are all likely to be bet one-sided with the favorites, but where do you go with the N.Y. Giants visiting Denver? Both teams are sliding with 6-4 records. The Giants were very fortunate to win against the Falcons last week and the Broncos have lost four straight after starting the season 6-0. The timing of the game couldn’t be worse for Denver with QB Kyle Orton’s ailing ankle on a short week.
College Football Saturday
College football was another winner for the books, making the season win-loss record 11-1. Despite faring poorly on straight bets with the Sharps having a very good season, the parlay action has carried the books to wins in just about every week thanks to many of the high profile teams not faring well against the number.
Last week saw a lot of strange two-way action on a few games, but only the South Florida-Louisville game came in as a middle. The Bulls opened as 12.5-point favorites and went back and forth from there to 11.5 until finally closing at 13. South Florida ended up winning by 12 points (34-22).
Hang on Sloopy
Still have to believe that THE Ohio State marching band is the best in the country. Their play as the Buckeyes won for the sixth straight time over Michigan resounded loudly to the somber Wolverine crowd, especially late in the game, almost in a taunting fashion. They must have played “Hang on Sloopy”, a Buckeye favorite, 100 straight bars as the final 2 minutes slowly ticked away and you could almost read the cartoon captions over Rich Rodriguez’s head saying, “stop playing that damn song”.
Depending on when you bet the game was the factor in winning or losing the game. Ohio State was a 12-point favorite for much of the week and dropped to 10 late Friday night and early Saturday morning. The game landed 11, 21-10 Buckeyes.
Halftime Hoot
One of the largest moves of last week was Kent State who opened as a 13-points 'dog at Temple and was bet down to 9.5 by kickoff. At halftime, the move looked to be just as prophetic as so many moves involving MAC teams with Kent State leading 10-9. Whatever the Temple halftime speech was, it worked! The Owls put a 38-3 second-half beat down on Kent State ultimately winning 47-13 with the Sportsbooks keeping all the chips.
Husky Angel & Touchdown Jesus
Connecticut’s 33-30 double-overtime victory over Notre Dame was considered to be the teams greatest win ever, not only because of who they beat and where, but more importantly -- it finally gave some relief to the UConn squad after losing one tough game after another following Jasper Howard’s death.
The Huskies played with heavy hearts for their slain teammate and it seemed kind of fitting that they win the game in front of Touchdown Jesus. The Huskies had lost three straight by a margin of four points or less since Jasper was killed. The win pushes U-Conn to 5-5 with a chance at making a bowl should they beat Syracuse on Saturday.
The Notre Dame loss may also be the end to the Charlie Weis era that has seen a worse winning percentage over his tenure than his predecessors Bob Davie and Tyrone Willingham over the same span. Weiss looked pretty good with Willingham’s recruits when he arrived, but his own crop hasn’t produced much.
Should the school let Weiss go they would be biting the bullet of $18 million for the remainder of his contract. Who says the economy is bad if decisions like that can be made without hesitation?
Presumptuous Cat fans
The Arizona Wildcats have never won the Pac-10 in their 32 years in the conference, nor have they been to the Rose Bowl. With less than a minute to go in the Oregon game leading 31-24, the Arizona Student body rushed through the aisles and crowded the sidelines anticipating the greatest celebration in Arizona football history. Had they won, they would be in control of their destiny.
In a scene straight of the “Bronx Tale”, they put the ultimate “Mush” on Arizona because Jeremy Massoli led them straight down the field for the tying score and eventually won in double-overtime 44-41. Not sure many of the kids took solace in the fact that Arizona still covered the spread as a home dog.