By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The perfect storm was brewing at sports book all across the Las Vegas valley during Week 12 NFL action on Sunday. As each game got posted, the losses were piling up and the risk for the remaining games to be posted kept multiplying with parlay risk.
Favorites would go 9-2 against the spread in the first 11 games, which included the ultra-popular Eagles and Patriots covering healthy double-digit numbers.
Doomsday, or Black Sunday, was right around the corner if the Steelers covered 14-points at home against the reeling Packers and back-up quarterback Brett Hundley. But the former UCLA standout performed well and the Steelers were able to get away with a 31-28 win as time expired. Large money-line parlays cashed on that three-teamer, but risky teasers and parlays dropped out due to Pittsburgh winning by just three points.
Still, the events of the first 11 games of the day shaped the end result and it was a stone cold loser for the house. The Patriots (-16.5) beat the visiting Dolphins, 35-17, for their seventh straight win (6-1 ATS). The Eagles (-13.5) made easy work at home against the over-matched Bears, 31-3, and kept the public cashing on them which is a the hottest ongoing trend in Las Vegas. Philly has won nine straight, covered its last eight and MGM books dropped them to 3/1 co-favorites to win the Super Bowl with the Patriots. It's an easy case to make seeing these two beasts playing each other in the Super Bowl this February from Minnesota.
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"The Steelers and Eagles both covering early was no good, but the game that kind of kept everything flowing after those decisions was the Panthers covering in the final minutes," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick of the popular Panthers (-6) 35-27 win at the Jets.
The underdogs helping were limited to just two, but they turned out to be huge risk choppers.
"As things turned out, the biggest savior for us on the day to not make losses more extreme was the Chiefs (-10) losing outright to Buffalo," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood of the Bills 16-10 road win. "It would have made this easily the worst weekend of the season for us due to big money-line parlays and teasers."
The Chiefs dropping their third straight loss and fifth in six games after a 5-0 start was the silver lining on a bad day for books. One week after Bills QB Tyrod Taylor got benched for some bizarre reason, he bounced back executing a conservative game plan to victory and kept Buffalo in the playoff hunt.
"We were fortunate to have some big house players play a lot on the Chiefs money-line, parlayed to other games, so our risk on the day wasn't too big," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "We were up on the day heading into the Steelers game, but will lose six figures if they cover the spread."
Kornegay and the Westgate got off much easier than most books. I heard one book director after the Packers cover say it was still the worst loss of his career which spanned 31 years.
The only other positive for the house, before the Packers cover, was the woeful Cardinals winning 27-24 at home over the Jaguars and their top-ranked defense. Arizona was the worst betting team in the NFL (2-7-1 ATS) prior to the game, but it would be former Jags No. 1 pick, QB Blaine Gabbert, who would shine in somewhat of a revenge game against his former team. Gabbert has looked sharp the past two games and with Arizona being at its lowest rating of the season it might be time to buy on decent value with them.
Don't forget about Thanksgiving leftovers from all three favorites covering. Those favorites provided a rolling head start for the public parlay bettors heading into Sunday's card. Ask anyone you know that bet over the weekend and it's likely they cashed a two-team parlay at 13/5 (Bet $100 to win $260) odds with New England and Philadelphia. Perfect timing with all the Christmas bills piling up following Black Friday.
"Thursday and Friday we were small losers, but Saturday was great with Clemson and Washington covering. Our big loser on the day was Oklahoma State," said Kornegay. "So if we can get out with a Packers cover, we'll consider ourselves fortunate for the holiday weekend."
Good news for the Westgate, but everywhere else in Las Vegas got buried.