Books get some gifts
By Micah Roberts
Weather played its first major role of the NFL season during week 14 as we saw totals drop dramatically for a few games. For one game held scheduled for Minnesota, the weather was so bad the stadium broke under the force of the compiling weight of snow on its roof. Because the Giants-Vikings game was moved to another location and the date was changed, all original bets were refunded.
While the elements were causing havoc in Minnesota, over in Chicago, Tom Brady was having his best game of the year and it came during a snow storm. Why is it that Brady seems to be so good, or lucky, in the snow? We saw him wipe up the Titans last year and we all remember the tuck-rule game, but putting up 369 passing yards in impossible throwing conditions was pretty amazing.
The Patriots opened a small -2½-point favorite and closed at -3 (EV), but the big adjustment was on the total which opened at 42 ½ and closed at 37. Ironically, the total landed 43, but it took an amazing day for a quarterback on an amazing streak right now for it to go over. In Brady’s last five games, he has put up some crazy statistical numbers en route to the Patriots putting up more than 30 points in each. You hate to say there’s any correlation between letting Randy Moss go and what they are doing now, but the shoe does seem to fit.
The public loved the Patriots in this game, but there was some sharp money supporting the Bears to help balance out some of the sports books losses, which paired with the Falcons, were pretty large.
However, before we start to sympathize with the books, just know that it was a pretty tough week for both the public and sharps which is good news for the house. All reports indicate that the sports books cumulatively had a decent day despite many of the favorites coming through like the Chargers, Steelers and Saints.
The combination of the Lions upsetting the Packers and the Dolphins handing the anemic offense of the Jets a loss was a huge lift for the sports books. The Seahawks got some surprising support at San Francisco in a game the 49ers won 40-21 making them both look like the teams we thought they were coming into the season.
The Broncos-Cardinals game may have been hard to find at your local sports pub, but all the sports books had the luxury of seeing this epic battle where the Broncos had six turnovers losing 43-13. However, the public had seen what the interim coaches had done the last two times a coach had been whacked and felt the Broncos would win easily based on ticket counts. Come on, the Cardinals were using a fourth-string quarterback named Skelton, why wouldn't you bet the Broncos.
Usually when the favorites come in at an 8-4 clip from the first two waves of games, it’s bad news for the house and party time for the players, but that wasn’t the case last week as parity is playing it’s own game in the bettors mind, still, as we roll into week 15 next week.
The sports books even got a bigger gift with the late game when the Eagles, another popular public team, didn’t cover against the Cowboys as 4-point favorites. Had the Eagles covered, it would have been the difference for many sports books winning and losing on the day.
Odd Sight
One of the strangest oddities on the day, beyond seeing Brady throw so well in the snow again, was seeing the Patriots game from Chicago with swirling winds and snow making the television screen white, sit side by side with another game held in San Diego where the weather was a 90 degrees and super sunny to the point where you had to adjust your tint.
He’s No John Brodie
Brodie Croyle had to step in for Matt Cassel in the Chiefs pivotal AFC matchup at San Diego and failed miserably, but it should come as no surprise since Croyle hasn’t won as a starting quarterback since playing College ball at Alabama. Croyle is now 0-10 as a starter in his first 10 starts of his career. Because of the move, the Chargers had went from 7-point favorites to 10-point favorites by kickoff. Incidentally, Troy Aikman and Warren Moon each started their NFL careers off going 0-11.
Game of the Week
It’s fair to say because of the constant lead changes, where the spread was also involved, that the Raiders game at Jacksonville had the most ohh’s and aaahh’s. The Jaguars were laying 4-points and for a while it looked like the points wouldn’t matter as the Raiders handled them nicely. But then the Jags stormed back late with 17 unanswered points to take a 31-24 lead. Not long after, the Raiders countered with a tying score on a long run to tie the score with just under 2 minutes to go.
If you had the Jaguars, you’re hoping for the gift touchdown late, which rarely happens because team’s usually set-up for the winning field goal. The Jaguars were doing exactly that, when the defense broke down and Maurice Jones-Drew broke loose for a 30-yard score.
Gift of the Week
Bettors felt pretty good early on with their Redskins ticket getting 2½-points at home against the Buccaneers, but soon the lead and cover was gone for bettors as the Redskins had a 17-10 deficit. With time almost gone, Santana Moss scored, but the Redskins failed to convert the extra-point ending the game at 17-16.