Books, Public draw in Week 5
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
You have to hand it to the betting public in Sunday's Week 5 NFL action for knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. The day ended up being an overall wash for both the sports books and bettors, which is actually a win for the bettors, but it was pretty impressive how they had the foresight to bail one of their favorite teams and came out a winner.
The Broncos came off a Super Bowl championship and started the season 4-0 while also covering the spread in their last six games. The public loves siding with winners and they ride streaks. Denver's win over Tampa Bay last week was one of the most one-sided bet games of the week. But in Week 5, they jumped ship and hopped aboard the Falcons wagon, and they we're right as Atlanta won 23-16 at Mile High, a score that doesn't really detail the true wipe out it was.
"Yeah, they love the high octane offenses," Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said of average Joe betting approach. "Whoever thought the public would fall in love with Matt Ryan? He wasn't even drafted in a lot of fantasy leagues."
Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay expanded more on why Denver might have been dumped by it's regular supporters at the bet windows saying, "They just don't go with defensive teams, they never have. It's the high scoring teams that get them excited, because they want the best possibility of having an easy blowout with their bets."
Sharp money had bet the Falcons from +6 to +4 during the week and when it was announced that starting QB Trevor Siemian wouldn't start on Saturday, there wasn't much of an adjustment to the number because rookie back-up Paxton Lynch wasn't considered much of a drop off.
Kornegay, a die-hard Broncos fans, was impressed with what he saw out of the Falcons.
"The Falcons were very physical and held their own on both sides of the ball," he said. "They protected well and they got a nice pass rush in. I was kind of surprised their offensive line kept the Broncos pass rush in check."
Even though the Vikings are a defensive team, and definitely not sexy offensively, the betting public stayed on board, believing in them far more than they did the Texans on the road. They laid -6 and -7 and cashed with a 31-13 win. They also laid -10 with the Patriots at Cleveland in Tom Brady's triumphant return as he threw for over 400 yards in a 33-13 win. The Steelers (-9.5) were also a popular bet on parlays and they beat the Jets 31-13.
The only game the public needed to cash a bunch of four-team parlays in the morning was the Eagles laying -3.5 at Detroit. In another show of how the fickle public operates, they had bet the Steelers heavy in Week 3 action against the Eagles, a game Philly dominated 34-3. It sold them, and they had to wait two weeks to bet the Eagles, waiting through the Week 4 bye. And they came strong to the windows. The Eagles were the most sided bet game of the week -- sharps liked them too -- and it became the biggest decision for the books among the first 11 games. The Lions tried to give a 21-7 lead away, but came away with the 24-23 win which paid +165 on the money-line.
"The Lions winning was our best decision of the day," said Kornegay. "It felt like everyone in the house had a ticket on the Eagles of some kind. Every time the Eagles did something positive the entire crowd roared."
After getting a favorable decision with the Raiders failing to cover -3.5 in their 34-31 home win against the Chargers, the books were showing a win for the day but all the risk was tied into the Packers and Over, with a big emphasis on the Over.
"If tonight's game goes Over (50), we will end up a small loser on the day," Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said prior to the Sunday night kickoff where the Packers were 7-point home favorites over the New York Giants.
The game stayed 'under' but but it landed on the spread with the Packers 23-16 win. Sharp money took +7.5 earlier in the week got paid and all the other spread bets got a refund, which hurt the books who didn't kill any of the live parlays going into either side. Parlays from the day reduced down and both sides of the teaser won.
"Disaster," was all William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich replied with in a text.
On the day, favorites went 6-5-1 against the spread with four underdogs winning outright and the totals were split at 6-6.
Way to go bettors, you've had the books on the ropes for the past couple of weeks. Keep at it, stay focused and get your game plan of attack ready for week 6.