Books roll in Week 1
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
What comes around always goes around, and the boomerang effect for Las Vegas sports books came flying back in their favor in Week 1 NFL action where the public struggled to cash their favorite wagers.
Last year was the worst NFL season Las Vegas had ever experienced, but they came roaring out of the gate this year with almost a perfect wish list of games working for the house.
"Anytime you get a popular favorite like Houston losing outright, it's a good start for the book,' said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci. "And then on top of that we get the Browns (+10) and Bears (+7) covering, it really gave us a nice early start."
The Jaguars were getting +6 at Houston and the Texans garnered lots of support from the public, especially considering expected emotions of Hurricane Harvey that would have the Texans at their best. Jacksonville, with their own hurricane issues dealing with Irma, came strong early and never let up in a 29-7 win which paid +220 on the money-line.
The Bears came close to winning late, but settled for a 23-17 loss to the popular Falcons who had 84 percent of all tickets written at William Hill sports books. The chain of 108 books also had 75 percent of their tickets written on the Steelers who escaped with a 21-18 win at Cleveland where rookie QB DeShone Kizer (20-30-1-1- 222) looked pretty good. Or least he gave some optimism compared to recent years at the QB position.
"The Bears would have been the game of the day for us if they won," said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay, "but it still all turned out well for us, coupled with the Browns and Jaguars getting there."
It was the same story all around town as the books struck back early with revenge from 2016's awful NFL season.
"We did pretty good today," said CG Technology VP of risk Jason Simbal. " We won our two biggest games of the day with the Browns and Bears, but we gave some of it back late with the Panthers and Packers covering."
Most books gave a bunch back in the three afternoon games, but still held well heading into the late game with the Giants getting +5.5 at Dallas, and later +6 at a few shops.
"We needed the 49ers and we also needed the Colts while the Seahawks-Packers was evenly split with us seeing more Seahawks parlay action but more straight wagers on the Packers," Avello said.
The Colts were originally -3 when QB Andrew Luck was supposed to play, but the Westgate closed the Rams as the 4-point favorite without him and the Rams rolled to a ho-hum 46-9 win. Without Luck, these Colts looked to easily be the worst team in football. Keep him in mind with every wagering equation moving forward because he's worth 7-points to the number.
The Panthers (-5) won 23-3 at San Francisco and the Packers (-3) beat the Seahawks, 17-9, for their third consecutive meeting.
In then end, after the Cowboys' 19-3 win against the Giants, the books still came out ahead.
Something that was a regular occurrence with a free roll of NFL bettors in 2016, turned out nice for the books in 2017. The bookmakers that lost some hair while it turned gray, and had a lot of sleepless nights last season thanks to the public piling on, can have carefree night of sleep knowing they won the first of 17 weeks a winner.
Under was the word with 10 of the 12 games staying Under. Six of the 12 games stayed Under with four of the underdogs winning outright.
There wasn't a lot unveiled for each team other than the Bengals looking awful at home in 20-0 loss to the Ravens and the Colts being terrible without Luck. All the best for Week 2.
Lessons Learned From NFL Week 1
Vegasinsider.com
That had to be one of the worst Week 1 slates I’ve seen in a long time. Most of the games were awful to watch, and there was perhaps no bigger surprise than seeing Cincinnati get skunked at home by Baltimore, where they’re notoriously good.
So what do we do when we’re trying to bet on football and make money? We gain from our mistakes and move forward.
Presenting Buyer’s Remorse Week 1, a look back at five of Sunday’s biggest surprises and how they measured up against the odds at BetOnline.ag.
Let’s live and learn.
Cleveland Browns +10.0 over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns surprised everyone by covering a +10.0 line that not too many backed. DeShone Kizer looked like a lost lamb at times because the offensive playbook was far too complicated for a rookie, but overall he seemed capable enough to make Cleveland a stronger play than you’d think. The Browns also held the Steelers to just 35 rushing yards, ranking them as the best ground defenders of Week 1. And they did that without top overall pick Myles Garrett, who could be back soon.
Cleveland has possible layups against Baltimore and Indianapolis and are due for some more credit. If the BetOnline.ag oddsmakers don’t give them that credit, then it’s money on the table for you.
Detroit Lions +2.5 over Arizona Cardinals
Because the Cardinals have two-time Coach of the Year Bruce Arians at the helm, there’s always the thought that they’re going to be a threat. Toss in big names in the secondary, and a capable front-seven, and you should have a viable playoff threat. On Sunday, we saw just how bad they could be. Add to that the fact that the Cardinals have lost running back David Johnson for what might be the entire season as well.
Things just went from bad to worse for Arizona, while Detroit found a way to win 35-23 regardless of a brutal first quarter that had everyone wondering if Stafford was worth that mammoth contract extension. Detroit might be a great live-betting team if they’re willing to put themselves in holes like they did in Week 1. They were the best fourth-quarter comeback team in 2016, and that’s a trend that might continue this year.
Chicago Bears +6.5 over Atlanta Falcons
Is Mike Glennon worth $16 million? After his performance on Sunday, I’d say he is. Jordan Howard should be ashamed for being too scared to catch a game-winning touchdown.
The problem is that the Bears might not have much more to show than their heroic comeback effort against a Falcons team that looks completely out of sorts without Kyle Shanahan calling the shots. I’m not willing to sell the Falcons up the river just yet, but it’s worth noting that they may not be the world beaters we took them for last season.
Chicago is interesting, and have my attention, but if everything is riding on Tarik Cohen saving this franchise as a 5-foot-6, 180 pound prodigy…I’ll pass. This performance by Chicago felt like a once-in-season game. They’re more likely to come crashing back down considering that they lost their most talented wide receiver – Kendall White – to injury.
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.0 over Houston Texans
In a game that the Texans simply had to win, they couldn’t come up with a single ounce of positivity. They were brutal in the trenches on both sides, getting manhandled by Jacksonville’s offensive and defensive lines. I’d say this is more positive for the underrated Jacksonville Jaguars.
Houston has a lot of ground to make up, and I’m not even sure that Deshaun Watson can fix the problems. Teams that aren’t good up front are never solid bets. Houston is prime example of that, which is tragic because the city needed this win in a big way.
Green Bay Packers -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks
Speaking of bad offensive lines, how about the Seahawks. What was supposed to be the Game of the Week turned in to an absolute bore-fest as Aaron Rodgers went to work in the second half while Russell Wilson couldn’t get anything going. Seattle looked bad and overmatched up front, and I don’t see how any of that gets better moving forward with Rees Odiahmbo and Germain Ifedi looking completely outmatched on the edges of the offensive line.
Facing the Niners in Week 2 might offer some reprieve, but Seattle is by no means the legitimate Super Bowl contender we thought they might be. Their +1000 Super Bowl odds at BetOnline.ag are a complete no-no right now.