Books strike back in Week 2
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
When Week 2 NFL opening numbers were posted at the beginning of last week, it was apparent that there was luxury tax placed on a few of the teams that beat the sports books in Week 1.
The books knew who the public was going to play, and they set numbers against their emotion, and played it brilliantly to a winning week.
"We had a house player on the Steelers pretty heavy," said MGM Resorts Vice President of Race and Sports Jay Rood, referring to the Steelers easy 43-18 win as six-point home favorites over the 49ers, "but it turned out to be a good day for us."
CG Technology VP of risk management, Jason Simbal, said their books had a good day as did Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. Every book was in the black and most of it was based on the public riding the teams hard that fared well last week believing what they saw last to be gospel.
They laid more points than they should have on overpriced teams like New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore, Miami, and St. Louis, much to the delight of the books.
One of the few games where the public was correct on was the Patriots, who had moved to a 2-point underdog at Buffalo, and won 40-32. Rood said his MGM books had taken sharp action on the Bills, but that it was one-sided with public parlay money on the Patriots.
McCormick cited the Cardinals, Steelers and combination of Patriots to OVER as being their worst decisions.
The most one-sided game of the day at the books was the public rolling with the Rams (-3.5) at Washington at a 90 percent clip on the Rams, who had just come off a big win against the Seahawks.
Washington controlled the game throughout in a 24-10 win. And things like that just continued to roll on the day for the books, just one week after having things go against them in the same fashion.
Tampa Bay, a 10-point road underdog, would take out a popular Saints squad, 26-19, the Browns (PK) won at home over the Titans, 28-14, and then in the afternoon the Raiders (+6) beat the Ravens 37-33 and Cowboys (+6.5) won 20-10 at Philadelphia.
"Yeah, it was a big day," said Simbal. "The Redskins were the biggest game of the day, Raiders next and then the Browns."
So what happens in Week 3 with the betting public?
Yes, the masses enjoyed the riches of Week 1 and they felt they had momentum and a crystal ball that was going to carry into Week 2 with another nice win. But they didn't care that prices were inflated and some forgot that this is the NFL where any team on any given Sunday can beat any other team.
One week after being down on the Buccaneers, you have to kind of respect its road win at New Orleans and think a little more when they're getting up to seven points this Sunday at Houston, who has started 0-2.
The odds on this matchup in my opinion should be Houston -5 and -5.5, which are dead numbers, but since the Bucs still have that public stigma against them, the books opened higher and that is going to give you value with them, at least for one more week. If Tampa Bay wins on the road again this week, Love Smith and company will definitely be on the radar screen for many because the public loves winners.
One game that won't see too much action just because the public won't have an easy decision is Oakland getting four points at Cleveland. They hate both the teams, but at the same time, both teams showed some offense and life in their Week 2 wins at home. The Browns might actually be a little cheap at home in this spot, but who wants to lay over a field goal with them. With so many betting options in the 1:00 p.m. ET start times, this game will get buried on the level of importance while the parlays are being filled out.
One of the most popular public teams over the past decade has been the Saints, but they're on the slow descend out of favor with many bettors, and this week they're catching three points at Carolina. The combination of the Saints on the road and on grass hasn't been a good combination for New Orleans even when they were good.
Despite a 0-2 start, you can believe the public will come strong again with the Eagles this week, a team bettors absolutely fell in love with during preseason and a team the books jacked up a team rating rarely seen so drastic during the exhibition season.
Philadelphia opened -2.5 at the New York Jets while the total is sitting at 47.5. This was a team expected by many to regularly be cashing side to OVER parlays at 13/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) all season, but it hasn't happened yet. Look for the public to go to the well one more time with a desperate Philly squad until finally jumping off Chip Kelly and his troops.
Tough choices to make this week, but you can bet they will be made.
Best of luck on the decisions!