Books survive and look ahead
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
While most of us are looking forward to spending time with family and eating great food over the Thanksgiving weekend, Las Vegas sports book directors take a deep breath before the first game Thursday and hope by the time the late game is over that the liability heading into the rest of the weekend is manageable.
From Thursday through Monday, the books will have a five-day stretch of activity that can make it one of the toughest on the revenue sheets. Unlike a regular weekend schedule of Saturday and Sunday games that culminate with a Monday matchup -- a game that is routinely a 4-way loser for the books because of weekend liability -- the sports books now have the added pressure of hoping to skate through Thursday’s and Friday’s games.
The ultimate hope for the sports books is to beat at least three of the six major decisions on Thursday’s NFL games, which more than likely includes beating the favorites.
Recreational bettors come from all over to get a part of what has become a tradition on Thanksgiving, having a little action on the games. Most of these players like the reward of betting a little to win a lot which is why they parlay. The popular play is always the favorites to the OVER.
“I think the real key to any successful Thanksgiving for us is to beat the OVER’s,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “We’re fortunate this season that we have a competitive Lions team along with Miami playing some great football lately and then in the late game with the Harbaugh brothers going head-to-head, I think we can expect great two-way action there.”
Osborne did concede that despite Detroit and Miami playing well, the public is still going to be on two of their weekly favorites, the Cowboys and Packers. However, he still likes the numbers.
“Usually we get a couple of large favorites for the two early games and then the late game is a mismatch,” said Osborne, who opened the Packers -5½, Cowboys -7 and Ravens -3½. “That's not the case this year, we've got some great matchups which gives us a fighting chance."
Should all those favorites come in for the public with all three of the OVER’s getting there, it will start a chain reaction of events that begin with having one of their worst individual days of the season on top of having massive risk heading into Friday’s college games.
“We’ve had a couple of those Thanksgivings before and it’s like a snowball effect where the liability just gets bigger and bigger each day, with 5 and 6-team parlays just waiting to hit on almost every game posted the next few days because of the live tickets from Thursday,” said Osborne.
Regardless of how many games the sports books win on Thursday, there is still going to be that chain reaction of liability, but it’s always nice to get off to a winning start on the first day and then worry about the other days as they come knowing that Monday is still going to be a lose-lose situation.
Sports Books Survive Sunday
The sports books were able to survive last Sunday’s NFL games despite not getting much support from the underdogs. Although their two biggest wins of the day did come from the Buccaneers (+14) who played it close at Green Bay in a 35-26 loss and the Seahawks (+3) winning outright at St. Louis, 24-7.
The Seahawks, Raiders (+2) and Eagles (+7) were the only underdogs to win on the day, not counting Denver’s 17-13 victory last Thursday night against the Jets. Overall, the favorites went 5-6-2 with not a lot of big decisions on straight bets, but just enough losses in parlays and teasers to make the day very unspectacular and a wash.
The gateway to success for many teaser players across town was Dallas (-7½) getting the chance to kick the game winning field goal in over-time for a 27-24 win after Washington had just missed one. In addition to Dallas, the popular 6 and 7-point teasers on the day included the Packers (-14), 49ers (-9½), Ravens (-7) and Falcons (-6).
Fearless Turkey Selections
Look for the Packers to take advantage of the Lions mistakes and make them pay before they can get back into the game like they did last week. Packers 34 Lions 20
The Dolphins have been playing a terrific brand of football and will give Dallas all they can handle. Taking the points here should get the money. Cowboys 21 Dolphins 20
The 49ers have to travel back east for the fifth time this season. They’ve won the previous four, but this one will be too much to ask. Ravens 27 49ers 16