Books survive Title 'chalk'
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Before the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship game started, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted a Super Bowl line with the Patriots -3 over the Falcons and a total of 58, the highest Super Bowl total ever. More of the Super Bowl later, but let's talk about how the books did on Championship Sunday. The big question coming in was whether or not the bettors would continue to win big they they had the first two weekends of the playoffs.
The score was Patriots 33-9 when the Super Bowl spread was posted with the only wagering decision really left in the game being whether or not the total would go 'over' 51 points, and it did with 11 points scored in the fourth-quarter to make it 36-17 much to the dismay of the sports books.
That decision coupled with the Falcons easily covering 6-points in a 44-21 win over the Packers NFC Championship game, in a game that went 'over' a playoff record total of 61, left the books as a small winner on the day with most of the win coming when championship futures and the ties-lose parlay card were posted.
"We did well on the first game just because we took lots of Packers action taking the points and the money-line a few hours before kickoff. The 'under' would have made it better for us, but we were off to a good start and didn't have a lot of parlay risk heading into the late game," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay.
The Falcons high-scoring offense didn't waste any time scoring on their first drive for the eighth consecutive game and they'd take a 24-0 lead into the half and then scored immediately in the second-half to derail any Aaron Rodgers and the Packers might come back. If you had a wager on the Falcons, the victory cigar came out very early. Most had the total 'over' and had to wait a little longer to be a winner.
"We lost on the Patriots cover," said Kornegay, "but it still turned out to be a pretty good day."
Kornegay also said they did well to Atlanta and New England conference futures that were also posted.
"If you had asked me weeks prior how I thought we'd do if the both favorites and overs occurred in the conference championship games, I would have said it would be an awful result, so I consider ourselves fortunate to have won what we did."
Super Bowl 51
My first thought on the Super Bowl was to stay high with the Patriots and offer them at their true value over the Falcons. I have the Patriots 3-points better than Atlanta. I also don't want anything to do with messing around with '3' so early in the Super Bowl game, so -3.5 would have been what I recommended despite the market showing -3.
Most books started with low wagering limits Sunday just to get a feel for what the public was feeling early on until ironing out their own strategy. The last few years we've seen public opinion flip from week to week causing the books to give more value on a team the public eventually came hard with over the final weekend when 70 percent of the overall action is taken. Last year it was all Carolina money early on after their blowout win against Arizona, but then Denver money came strong the final few days.
Another consideration the books have to account for that may have made them feel more comfortable with a safe -3 to start with is that the public loves taking the underdog in the Super Bowl, and they've been correct the past five years with outright wins. The underdog money-line is always bet upon heavily so no value is ever offered.
Early wagering strategy: If liking the Patriots, lay the money-line now instead of the points. Boyd Gaming and Coast Resorts are offering -145 while the Westgate and Wynn are sitting closer to what a 3-point spread money-line should be at -160. If you like the Falcons I think you can wait and at least try to get +3.5 or higher.
Part of the reason I think the Patriots spread will get higher is just because they've covered inflated numbers in 15 of 18 games this season. I can't ever remember a point-spread success rate as good for a Super Bowl team. Of course, the Patriots have that evil empire moniker that will automatically force a few bets on the Falcons from the masses.
The bottom line for me is that I don't think the Falcons secondary will slow Tom Brady and the only way to rattle him is with a tenacious pass rush and the Falcons don't really have that despite having the NFL sack leader. I also don't think the Patriots defense gets enough credit for what it's done all season and I like them to slow Matt Ryan's hot hand.
Anyway, those are my first thoughts. We'll see how it goes the rest of the way and my opinion on the game could change, but overall I'm excited for the match-up and can't wait to watch the betting story unfold in Las Vegas. I'll be keeping a daily betting notebook on Vegas happenings over the next two weeks here, so be sure to come back and check it out.