Books take wild weekend
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Las Vegas sports book were rocking Sunday with a buzz surrounding the day that we haven't seen since Week 1. Part of it had to do with almost every media outlet hyping New England's visit to Denver, which helped spur the largest single game handle of the season for many books, and the other part was all the wonderful upsets that occurred through the day that kept everyone ohhhing and awing throughout the day.
Although the bettors experienced a rare collective loss on the day, the price of admission was almost worth it as the early games gave us five outright underdog winners, two of which we saw for the first time of the season. The Packers’ 19-14 loss at Kansas City as 14-point underdogs ended their hopes of an undefeated season and we also witnessed the winless Colts take down an opponent for the first time of the season.
While small money was laying whatever spread there was on the Packers, sharp money came in strong on the Chiefs on Sunday morning dropping the line as low as minus-11 by kickoff. The combination of veteran quarterback Kyle Orton making smart passes, a good running game, and strong defense kept the Packers off-balance all day like we hadn’t seen all season. Other than a few sharp players out there, who would have guessed the Chiefs would be the one to knock off this team of destiny.
Just last week Lucky’s sports books had taken down their odds asking if the Packers would go undefeated because it looked too inevitable with only three games remaining. Their final price on the proposition was YES, they would go undefeated -140 (Bet $140 to win $100).
Between the Packers loss and the Patriots impressive 41-23 win at Denver, the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book immediately dropped their Super Bowl line from NFC -4.5 to -3.5. The Packers remain 9/5 favorites (Bet $50 to win $90) to win the Super Bowl, but the Patriots were dropped down to 4/1.
The Patriots were also lowered to win the AFC as the 7/5 favorite due to being two steps closer to securing home field advantage while the Ravens and Texans, both of whom came into Week 15 at 10-3 and were contending for home field.
For Baltimore, not getting home field will be a huge disadvantage for them. Its loss to San Diego as 2 ½-point favorites was their fourth road loss of the season. Losing at San Diego in December where Philip Rivers is now 23-2 as a starter in understandable, but it adds to the bad losses at Jacksonville, Seattle and Tennessee.
Houston was popular bet Sunday with the public laying any number from the opener of -7 to -6½, but sharp money started floating in Friday on the Panthers and pushed the game down to -5½ by kickoff. It was a tough spot for rookie signal caller T.J. Yates to bounce back off a huge emotional win last week in Cincinnati. Moving forward, the Texans could be in trouble and more questions will surface why they didn't go after Orton when Matt Schaub went down.
The Patriots game went as planned by the public and sharps. Small money came in at a 3-to-2 ratio on the Patriots while large money pushed the Patriots from 5-point favorites to -7.5 at most books. Cantor Gaming sports books were way ahead of the curve on the game with their -9 ½ (+105) line.
For the first time all season we saw Tim Tebow and the Broncos set the early fast pace and take an early 17-6 lead behind 167 yards of rushing in the first-quarter. However, things quickly turned as three critical second quarter turnovers allowed the Patriots to run off 27 unanswered points.
Missing from the game was the Broncos pass rush that has pestered opposing quarterbacks all season. It was almost as if head coach John Fox was giving Tom Brady too much respect by keeping defenders back and not blitzing as much as we have seen throughout Denver games this season. The Broncos defense was also severely weakened by not having Brian Dawkins patrol the outfield. Dawkins replacement, rookie Rahim Moore, made Tony Lilly from the Broncos past look like a good tackler.
Despite the loss, most will agree that Tebow played very well and just got outgunned by one of the league’s all-time best.
The Broncos (8-6) aren’t clear in the AFC West just yet. We’ve seen the Chargers (7-7) catch them from way behind before and they’re coming on strong again, just one game behind. The Raiders (7-7) are also in the hunt despite losing three games in a row.
The winner of the AFC West will be the fourth seed in the playoffs with a home game likely against the Ravens or Steelers, which isn‘t going to be easy. With so much up in the air, odds to win the AFC have the Broncos 13/1, Chargers 10/1 and Raiders 75/1. Should the Chargers get in, their offense provides more possibilities for running the playoff table, especially if they come in with a five-game winning streak.
The NFC still has a nice battle going with Philadelphia still alive and well, as crazy as that sounds. It was just two weeks ago where the Eagles were 500/1 to win the NFC. After a few Giants and Cowboys losses, they are down to 15/1 while the Cowboys are 10/1.
For the Eagles to get in, it’s pretty simple. They need to beat the Cowboys and have the Jets beat the Giants this week. In Week 17, they’ll have to beat the Redskins and have the Giants beat the Cowboys. That would make all three teams 8-8 with the Eagles holding a 5-1 division record.
Crazier things have happened. It was just two months ago we witnessed the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series when the sports books adjusted them to 1,000/1 midway through September and five games out.
For the week, favorites went 7-7-1 against the spread making the season total 106-109-5.