Books win holiday weekend

Books win holiday weekend
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Who says there's no Santa Claus?

After a rough nine weeks of NFL action, Las Vegas sports books got a Christmas wish delivered by the bearded big man over the holiday weekend that started on Thursday and continued through Christmas Day with a perfect mix of decisions helping them to a winning Week 16.

At the same time, wise-guys -- who have been struggling most of the NFL season, also came along for the victory parade ride as their persistence of taking 'value' with the Cleveland Browns finally paid off after seven straight weeks of failing to cover the number. The Browns didn't just cover (+4), they'd win their first game of the year, 20-17, over the Chargers on Christmas Eve making the Cleveland faithful have their Christmas wish come true as well.

The winning Christmas wish-come-true story all started started Thursday night with the New York Giants playing at Philadelphia where the line opened earlier in the week with the Giants -3 and quickly went to -2.5. Sharp money liked the situation of a struggling Eagles squad to play well at home against the red-hot Giants and on game day had driven the number to Philly being a one-point favorite, despite overwhelming public support playing the Giants. Public money would eventually push the Giants back to -2 at a few books.

The Eagles would pull off a 24-19 win and despite taking lots of sharp action, the books were able to come away winners because of all the public small money adding large.

The thing that really impressed me about the booking strategy in that game was how the books stayed true to their proven methods of the past three decades that always netted profits rather than adjusting on the fly to match the anomaly of a rough losing stretch.

It may not sound like a big deal, but when the book's bosses are constantly hearing grumbles from upstairs about losing NFL Sunday's that were forecasted as big wins, there could be reason to alter the proven methods and change due to the climate. But through all the losses, they continued to book with the large money and move based on respected faces.

And give it up for the wise guys as well for staying true to their betting methods of taking any ounce of perceived value and putting the continued losses in the rear-view mirror like it never happened. Once again, they were on the Browns and drove the number from +6 down to +4 and that persistence paid off.

The public were still all over the Chargers at most bet shops. William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada had 78 percent of all tickets written on the game siding with San Diego and 65 percent of the cash despite large sharp play on the Browns. When the sharps win, the books usually do which has been part of a long standing relationship between the two sides.

The rest of the Christmas Eve games on Saturday turned out well for the books with underdogs covering six of the 12 games and eight of the games going 'over' the total.

"It was our best NFL Sunday since September....and it happened on a Saturday," said Wesgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "The Jaguars outright win started us off and the icing on the cake was the crazy Arizona win. For the first time in many moons the Browns contributed. We also went undefeated in the four afternoon games as we took some bigger plays on Indy."

The Tennessee Titans were playing for a playoff position and were laying five points at Jacksonville who had lost its last nine games and had just fired the head coach. Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota fractured his fibula, but the Jaguars had controlled the game throughout and finally held on to a fourth-quarter lead and won 38-17.

Arizona had nothing to play for and had covered only four of 14 games this season, but they'd hang on to win, 34-31, at Seattle as a nine-point underdog despite some very questionable clock management by Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians. It was the Cardinals third straight win at Seattle and paid +360 on the money-line, which was the largest payout of the six underdogs that won outright on the weekend.

The Raiders (-3) would cover in a 33-25 win over the visiting Indianapolis Colts, but their Super Bowl dreams were dashed when MVP candidate Derek Carr broke his leg in the second-half. Back-up Matt McGloin will take over the reins for the rest of the season. The effect of losing Carr will be felt throughout conference and Super Bowl futures will several teams becoming bigger favorites.

Kornegay also said the 49ers' 22-21 win at Los Angeles (-6) was a big boost for his book. And then in the late game, the Texans would clinch a playoff berth by beating Cincinnati 12-10, but not cover the three-point spread which had moved from pick 'em on game day. Most of the larger public action was laying -2, -2.5 and -3 closer to kickoff.

Christmas Day featured two NFL games featuring divisional rivals and five NBA games including an incredible Cavs 109-108 home win over the Warriors (-3) which helped the books to a solid win. The Steelers 31-27 win over Baltimore (+6) was a small winner for the house and the Chiefs 33-10 win over the Broncos was a small loss even though the sharps were all over the Broncos all week dropping the number from Chiefs -6 to -3. Both the Ravens and Broncos were eliminated from postseason contention.

Moving forward into Week 17 action, the books have to be on their toes with information involving several cliched teams and what their strategies will be regarding whether to rest key starters or play them to avoid rust heading into the playoffs.