Bowl Betting Report
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
About a week since the matchups were announced and less than three weeks before the games will be played, the betting market seems to have found the right numbers for the two 2016 College Football Playoff semifinals.
No. 1 Alabama, far and away the top team on every bookmaker’s power ratings, opened Dec. 4 at the Wynn as a 13.5-point favorite against Washington in the Peach Bowl. That line drew immediate action from bettors looking to lay the points, and by the next day, the Crimson Tide had been bet up to -16, the number at which underdog bettors got involved.
“A lot of money on Alabama going up and some pretty good sized bets on Washington (at the bigger numbers), so we settled at 15.5,” John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, said this Tuesday. “That’s the biggest betting game so far (of the 2016-17 bowl game slate).”
Avello, who said his book is relatively balanced on the game, doubts the buy-back on Washington +16 came from wiseguys playing the number.
“I don’t think the wiseguys (laying the points with ‘Bama) would be interested again until you hit 17,” he said.
CG Technology, meanwhile, was on the low end of the market when wagering opened but ended up at 15.5, along with most of its competing bet shops.
CG tested the market by dealing Alabama in the -10.5, -11 range on look-ahead lines on the Tide’s potential matchup with Washington. Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG, said his group “took some Alabama money (at those prices) but nothing out of control.”
So when the Huskies were unveiled as Alabama’s opponent, CG opened the game 11.5.
”That lasted all of like five minutes,” Simbal said Tuesday. “Some other books opened 13.5, 14, so we quickly followed them to that number, and (bettors) kept laying Alabama. The peak we’ve been at is 15.5, which is where we are now, and it’s been pretty crazy movement to get there. ... They laid it up to 15.5, and then they bought back Washington to 15, and then they laid Alabama again at 15. ...
“At 15.5 is where we stopped getting one-sided action. The Alabama folks seems to be willing to lay 15 and the Washington folks seem willing to take 16, so it’s kind of quiet at this number.”
Public bettors, as is to be expected, have been playing Washington at about 6/1 odds on the money-line, setting up a big-game scenario with which bookmakers are familiar.
“Kind of like the Super Bowl, where we need the favorite to win without covering,” Simbal envisions as the position CG will be on New Year’s Eve.
Ohio State (-3/-120) vs. Clemson
As it does with the Peach Bowl, early action on the Fiesta Bowl, the second national semifinal set for Dec. 31, indicates the number is around where it needs to be: Ohio State -3 (-120) at most shops and -3.5 at the Westgate SuperBook (Ohio State bettors in Las Vegas should head to the South Point, which currently has OSU -3 and whose policy it is to never to come off the standard -110 vig).
CG opened Ohio State -3.5, the Wynn CG hung -2.5, and naturally, CG took dog action and the Wynn got money on the chalk. As of this writing, CG is dealing OSU -3 (-115), while the Wynn has -3 (-120).
“We took some Clemson action right away when we opened 3.5, but since we moved to 3, it’s been really good two-way action,” Simbal said. “Not a ton of sharp play on the game at all. It’s been mostly public two-way action.”
Said Avello, “We opened that game 2.5 and we’re up to 3 and trending a little higher because of Ohio State money, but we haven’t gotten off that number.”
Both Fiesta Bowl participants have been burning money at the bet window most of the season – Ohio State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, Clemson is on a 2-5 ATS run.
Avello, though, believes the Tigers are in better form ahead of this matchup.
“I respect the Ohio State coach (Urban Meyer),” Avello said. “He’s been there before, he wins a lot of football games, but I don’t know if this team is as talented as the Ohio State team that won a national championship a few years ago. You look at the end of the Ohio State season – Michigan State could have beaten them, they ended up winning by a point; Michigan was a double-overtime game. They’ve had their scares this year – Penn State beat them, Northwestern gave them a tough game.”
While Meyer is tough to beat with so much time to prepare, Avello said, “I would take the ‘dog in the game. I like the way Clemson played at the end of the season. They certainly had their tough spots, but they ended up strong... It seems like their offense is where they want it right now, and it’s Ohio State’s job to slow it down. I think Clemson can win this football game.”
Here are a few bowl games beyond the semifinals that have our attention.
LSU (-3) vs. Louisville
Louisville, not long ago regarded as one of the best teams in the country, has lost respect among the betting market, thanks to consecutive loses (at Houston, vs. Kentucky) to close out the regular season. The Cardinals are between 3- and 3.5-point dogs against LSU in Orlando.
When Louisville was putting up 50, 60, 70 points a game at the beginning of the season, public bettors couldn’t get to the window fast enough to bet them. But the Cards have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games. That sort of performance will change people’s minds about a team.
“Louisville being a public team has certainly changed,” Simbal said.
LSU opened -2.5 at CG and was bet to as high as -3.5 by public gamblers reacting to news that running back Leonard Fournette is likely to play.
“I don’t know how much Louisville play we’re going to get in this game,” Avello added. “I think we’re going to need Louisville when the game goes off.”
Avello envisions a motivated LSU side under Ed Orgeron, who was recently hired as head coach of the Tigers after serving on an interim basis since Les Miles was fired in late September.
“I think they come into the game focused and ready to move on for next year. I think they have something to play for here,” Avello said. “I think (playing against Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson) gives them little more motivation to try and stop him. “
Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin (-7.5)
Western Michigan will get its shot against a legit Power 5 program by virtue of its 13-0 record, built mainly through the Broncos’ MAC schedule. P.J. Fleck’s men do have road wins over two Big Ten teams on their resume, albeit Northwestern in the first week of the season and lowly Illinois.
That’s not enough to interest public bettors in taking the points against Wisconsin.
As about 2:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday Dec. 14, CG had written six bets on Western Michigan for a total of $125, compared to 40 bets on Wisconsin worth $4,000, mostly from fans, according to Simbal.
CG opened Wisconsin -6.5 and moved to -7.5, but action this small won’t prompt Simbal’s group to adjust to a number that would be enticing to wiseguys.
“You can’t inflate the line too much, because the sharp guys really like to attack these bowl games early on when a line is off,” Simbal said.
Avello doesn’t seem particularly impressed with Western Michigan, despite its perfect record, and he also does not see a problem with motivation for the Badgers.
“It’s not like they destroyed all those teams,” Avello said of the Broncos. “Those teams have all hung around, staying within a couple of touchdowns. They’re up against a team that could have very well been in the national championship game. We’re going to find out how good they really are…“The team does score a lot (43.5 points per game, 8th in the nation). ... But Wisconsin’s defense has shut down a lot of teams during the year.”
He added of Wisconsin’s motivation after being eliminated from national title contention, “When there’s so much time between games, it changes things a little bit for teams – maybe they lose their momentum, maybe they don’t care as much – we don’t know that. But in this case, I would bet Wisconsin comes to play and win the game.”
USC (-7) vs. Penn State
USC, winners of eight straight (7-1 ATS) after a 1-3 start to the season, opened -6.5 for its Rose Bowl date vs. Penn State, and the line has hovered between that number and -7 around Las Vegas the past week and a half.
Despite nearly missing a playoff bid, No. 5 Penn State, as Avello sees it, faces a daunting task in Pasadena.
“Penn State had a miraculous win against Wisconsin (in the Big Ten championship game), being down that many early in the game, and I respect what that team has done this year, but they’re up against a lot here,” Avello said... “If there were two or three games left in the season, (USC) might end up in that final four.”
He added, “USC is going to be bet this game. I guess I’ll get some Penn State money if I get to the right number.”
At least one sharp player liked Penn State plus the touchdown, as Avello’s team moved the Rose Bowl line from 7 back to 6.5 after we spoke Tuesday.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma (-3.5)
Oklahoma opened -5.5 at the Wynn, but the line has swung 2 points in Auburn’s direction, a move driven largely by sentiment that the SEC is superior to the Big 12, Avello believes.
“Not a great season for them, but there are quality athletes on the team and they’re a very well-coached team,” Avello said of Auburn. “They didn’t finish the season well, but they did cover the point spread against Alabama. They weren’t scoring a lot the last couple of games, but still, Gus Malzahn does a great job with this team.”
He added of the Sugar Bowl favorite, “Oklahoma’s a tough team to bet, because Oklahoma can come with all of it or (not). They can score, but they can also give up a lot.”
Opinions on conferences still taking shape
Despite certain games, like the Sugar Bowl discussed above, being bet based on conferences, more meaningful opinions on leagues are developed as the bowl season plays out. In other words, it’s too early to find patterns on which conferences are being backed or faded in the postseason.
“You’re not going to find it now, you’re going to find it after the bowl season starts,” Avello said, “and this is what happens: if the Pac 12 goes 3-0 the first three games, then they’ll start betting the Pac 12 teams, figuring they must be a stronger conference; and if they see conferences starting to lose, they’ll bet against them.”
Simbal offered this as an example of how opinions continue to be shaped: “If San Diego State is able to win (the Las Vegas Bowl this Saturday) and their defense handles Houston, then you have to look at the teams Houston beat down the stretch of the season. Houston gave a licking to Louisville, so if San Diego State is beating up Houston pretty good, then how good can Louisville be?”
More early action at CG Technology
Simbal pointed out a few under-the-radar bowl games that have attracted early action from respected bettors at his shop.
CG took two limit bets ($5,000) on N.C. State, one laying 3.5, one laying 4, against Vanderbilt in the Dec. 26 Independence Bowl. After moving the number to 4.5, though, the book is back to 4.
Houston opened -2.5 and was bet up to -3.5, although CG also took a limit bet on the San Diego State money line (+145), opening up a nice 3-point middle for the book.
Wyoming is an 8.5-point dog against BYU in the Dec. 21 Poinsettia Bowl, but Simbal said CG booked a five-figure money-line bet on the Cowboys +270.
Totals
‘Under’ is being bet in the Peach Bowl between Washington and Alabama, as the total opened 55 at CG Technology and is down to 54. But, Simbal cautions, “It’s hard to lay 16 and bet the under.”
The total for this Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl featuring Texas-San Antonio vs. New Mexico has been relatively heavily bet, according to Simbal, with gamblers playing the ‘under’ from an opening number of 63.5 down to 62.5.
The Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium between Pitt and Northwestern on Dec. 28 is seeing ‘over’ money, pushing the number from 66 to 66.5.