Bowl Forecast
By The Gold Sheet
Like our beloved "Bracketology" leading up to March Madness, early bowl projections are almost as fun in college football. Despite the fact none of these gridiron exhibitions, save the national title game, are as interesting or as meaningful as even one of the NCAA first-round games in the Big Dance, predicting their compositions in early November provides a bit of a guide and roadmap about where the college postseason lineup appears to be headed.
Having said all of that, we're not sure how much we're looking forward to this endless succession of bowl games, which thankfully hasn't expanded this season; indeed, it's miraculous that it didn't contract, and that corporate sponsors were found for the games that lost them from a year ago (such as local Little Caesars Pizza coming to the rescue of the Motor City Bowl in Detroit). Already, however, there are plans for at least one more bowl next year, the Yankee Bowl in New York City at the new Yankee Stadium, featuring a Big East-Big XII matchup. Shades of the old Gotham (at the Polo Grounds) and Garden State (at the Meadowlands) Bowls, neither of which lasted for more than a few years!
Our biggest complaint about the bowls, however, is how the BCS has devalued so many of them. That would include all of the "major" BCS bowls save the title game. And for those who think the Rose Bowl remains "something special" in the postseason lineup because it has mostly retained that Pac-10/Big Ten matchup, well, we'll invite you to revisit these pages in December when we reiterate why the Rose Bowl is the one event keeping the rest of the college football world in limbo while the Big Ten and Pac-10 continue to act as lords of the kingdom. It is the biggest block to ever having a real playoff system, and we'll explain in more detail when the bowl season is upon us.
In the meantime, following are our "way too early" bowl projections. And remember, December is just around the corner...
NEW MEXICO: Nevada vs. Air Force...Fascinating ground-oriented battle featuring Nevada Pistol vs. Air Force Option. With Boise likely headed for a BCS berth, WAC queue likely sends Wolf Pack to Albuquerque, Fresno to Honolulu, and surprising Idaho to Boise's Roady Humanitarian. Falcons might not want a third straight trip to Fort Worth's Armed Forces Bowl and opt for this assignment instead. Both bowl-eligible with one more win.
ST. PETERSBURG: South Florida vs. East Carolina...USF would be making a repeat appearance, but local flavor might not be a bad call in St. Pete. ECU will be instead gunning for a return trip to the Liberty Bowl (that goes along with the CUSA title). Watching football in The Trop remains a bit odd, however.
LAS VEGAS: Utah vs. Oregon State...We're not sure BYU wants to go back to the Las Vegas Bowl for a fifth straight year, although the heavy LDS population in Vegas would guarantee a sellout. Utah also has a lot of LDS support and should be a good draw at Sam Boyd Stadium, although the Utes could still knock TCU out of the BCS and somewhat jumble the Mountain West bowl picture. These teams met in the regular season during 2007 & '08.
NEW ORLEANS: Troy vs. UCF...The Trojans continue to draw clear in the Sun Belt and could have the crown sewn up by mid-November. George O'Leary might not enjoy this week's trip to Texas but has the Golden Knights poised for a return to the postseason after a one-year hiatus.
POINSETTIA: Cal vs. San Diego State...Cal is still gunning for a higher-profile assignment but has four more tough tests in the Pac-10 (Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford, and Washington) to worry about, so this spot seems about right. If Brady Hoke can steer the surprising Aztecs to their first bowl in 11 years it might be a more remarkable accomplishment than making Ball State relevant in the MAC the past two seasons.
HAWAII: Fresno State vs. SMU...With hometown Hawaii out of the bowl mix, Fresno becomes a logical WAC pick for Honolulu after spending the last two postseasons in Boise & Albuquerque. Surprising SMU is making a run at bowl eligibility and would be an intriguing choice for this game with the chance HC June Jones would return to the islands after his successful stint with the hometown Warriors between 1999-2007.
LITTLE CAESARS: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan...This would be CMU's fourth straight visit to what was formerly known as the Motor City Bowl, although we think the Chips' regional appeal would be welcome by the Detroit bowl sponsors. The Wildcats get bowl-eligible with one more win (we're guessing it could come November 14 vs. Illinois).
MEINEKE CAR CARE: North Carolina vs. Pitt...The Tar Heels could return to Charlotte for a second straight year. After upsetting Virginia Tech last week, Butch Davis' troops need just one more win to become bowl eligible. Pitt is aiming higher but the Big East bowl slots beyond the BCS are these sorts of mid and lower-level affairs.
EAGLE BANK: UConn vs. Boston College...This bowl would like to pit Army vs. an ACC rep but we don't think the Black Knights of the Hudson will win the requisite six games for eligibility. With the Big East likely having an extra bowl-eligible team, RFK Stadium could be a nice landing spot for the Huskies. A northeast matchup vs. surprising BC would be an interesting regional attraction in D.C.
CHAMPS SPORTS: Michigan State vs. Florida State...We'll bet that this lesser of the two Orlando bowls attracts at least one 6-6 team. Maybe two. If it's the Seminoles, might this be the last game of Bobby Bowden's long career? Both FSU & MSU, however, need to scramble and win 2 of their remaining 4 games to get eligible.
EMERALD: Stanford vs. Duke...Wouldn't this be an interesting "academic" bowl matchup? Duke could be bowling for the first time since Fred Goldsmith's first Blue Devil team in 1994, but remember that the Durham bunch needs to get to seven wins (it has five right now) to get eligible because of two non-FBS wins on the schedule. Stanford has a tough closing schedule (Oregon, USC, Cal, Notre Dame) but needs just one win to become bowl-eligible for the first time since Ty Willingham's last season on the Farm in 2001. The Tree would be a popular nearby choice for this San Francisco-based bowl.
INDEPENDENCE: Texas Tech vs. Georgia...This assignment would hardly endear Mark Richt to the Georgia faithful who are used to more glamorous postseason destinations. But it might be the best the Dawgs can do this year. Already-eligible Tech can still do a bit better than this but probably needs to beat either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma in the coming weeks to get a more-appealing postseason date.
PAPAJOHNS.COM: West Virginia vs. Kentucky...If this matchup occurs (which it might), some trivia expert is going to pull out the fact that these two met at this same Legion Field venue in the now-defunct All-American Bowl way back in 1983 (a game, by the way, won by the Mountaineers, 20-16). Kentucky gets bowl-eligible if it can beat Eastern Kentucky and Vanderbilt in its next two games. West Virginia looks to be one of those Big East non-BCS bowl teams subject to a choice of some mostly lower-tier bowls.
ALAMO: Oklahoma State vs. Minnesota...If the Big Ten can get a BCS at-large team (we're guessing it would be Iowa or Penn State), the Alamo gets pushed down a rung in the Big Ten bowl ladder and might be stuck with a team like the Gophers instead of Wisconsin or Ohio State. Oklahoma State could end up in the Cotton Bowl if it can beat rival Oklahoma in the "bedlam" finale.
ROADY'S HUMANITARIAN: Idaho vs. Wyoming...The surprising Vandals are already bowl-eligible and should garner Robb Akey several Coach of the Year votes. Boise appears a natural destination specially with the hometown BSU Broncos likely BCS-bound. Wyo would make this a very unexpected matchup, and the Mountain West's involvement gives this a more regional flavor after annually inviting misplaced ACC reps in recent years.
TEXAS: Navy vs. Texas A&M...Unlike Army, unlikely to qualify for its bowl date in D.C., Navy (ticketed for this assignment) should safely secure passage to the postseason for the seventh straight season. A&M has been a bit bipolar this season but the nearby Ags would be a popular pick for this date in Houston.
HOLIDAY: Southern Cal vs. Kansas State...SC will stay in the mix for a BCS at-large berth if it doesn't lose another game but could get pipped for one of those prime slots by, say, Penn State or Miami. In which case the Holiday would be more than happy to host the Trojans for the first-ever time. Kansas State would be a very intriguing opponent, not only with Bill Snyder making a triumphant return to the sidelines this season, but also because his KSU teams were 2-0 vs. Pete Carroll's first two Trojan squads in 2001 & '02.
ARMED FORCES: BYU vs. Tulsa...After four straight trips to the Las Vegas Bowl, it's time for a change of scenery for the Cougs, who likely end up in Fort Worth instead of other MWC slots elsewhere. Fort Worth also seems about right for Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane has to hustle to get bowl-eligible by winning two more times. These two have also played some wild games in recent memory (including Tulsa's 55-47 win in 2007).
SUN: Arizona vs. Missouri...This would be Arizona's third visit to the Sun Bowl, and Wildcat fans would be hoping for better results than 1968 (when Cat QBs completed only 13 of 44 passes and tossed five interceptions in a 34-10 loss to Auburn) or 1992 (when UA lost to Baylor in Grant Teaff's final game, 20-15). Mizzou was last in El Paso three years ago when losing a wild 39-38 decision vs. Oregon State. Someone would have to fare better this time around.
MUSIC CITY: Clemson vs. Auburn...Auburn might still be hoping for one of those more glamorous New Year's Day assignments in Florida (Capital One or Outback) or maybe the Cotton Bowl, but we suspect they'll be pushed down the SEC queue and into Nashville instead. Clemson would provide a rematch of the 2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl (won by Auburn in overtime 23-20). Either way, the Tigers win this one.
INSIGHT: Nebraska vs. Michigan...These teams met in a memorable 2005 Alamo Bowl when coached by Bill Callahan and Lloyd Carr, respectively. Tempe might be the best either can settle for this season; the Wolverines had better beat Purdue this week to get bowl-eligible, because they'll likely be underdogs in their last two games vs. Wisconsin and Ohio State.
CHICK-FIL-A: Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina...This would be a return visit to the Georgia Dome by the Hokies, who opened their season in Atlanta against Alabama. Although the ACC bowl queue could be altered if Miami can squeeze out a BCS at-large berth. Meanwhile, South Carolina would be a perfect fit in Atlanta.
OUTBACK: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee...These teams met in this matchup two years ago, with the Vols prevailing 21-17. UT is picking up momentum late in the season and we now project Lane Kiffin to steer his team into one of the desirable New Year's Day games in Florida. If the Big Ten lands two teams in the BCS, Wisconsin likely either ends up here in Tampa or in Orlando for the Capital One Bowl.
CAPITAL ONE: Ohio State vs. Ole Miss...We're guessing that the Buckeyes land this Orlando assignment, although they could be bumped to Tampa (and Wisconsin likely then to the Alamo) if the Big Ten can't get a pair of BCS teams. Ole Miss also looks a possible candidate for the Cotton Bowl or maybe a spot in the Outback.
GATOR: Notre Dame vs. Miami-Florida...Since we cannot bear the thought of the Fighting Irish reaching a BCS bowl, we instead slot them into the Gator (where they have a provisional contract). And wouldn't it be a hoot to see the Irish renew hostilities vs. the Canes, their once-despised rival who haven't faced ND since 1990?
COTTON: LSU vs. Oklahoma...LSU might be one of the few teams that can realistically reach the BCS title game as long as it wins out. We think it's possible the Tigers win at Alabama this week then stumble in a rematch in the SEC title game vs. Florida, which would ironically probably send the Tide into the BCS as an at-large and the Tigers to one of the Florida New Year's games or this once-again very appealing assignment now that the game is being played in Jerry Jones' Cowboys Stadium. Oklahoma, out of the BCS mix, would welcome a return trip to Arlington and a chance to erase the memory of its season-opening loss vs. BYU on this field.
LIBERTY: Houston vs. Arkansas...We'd make sure to watch this likely shootout in what would also be an old SWC matchup, although there was always a kinship these two shared as the "outsiders" to the old-Texas school alliance.
INTERNATIONAL: Rutgers vs. Temple...Does anyone recall Temple's last bowl game? It's been 30 long years since the Owls went "bowling" in the 1979 Garden State Bowl when Wayne Hardin's charges beat Cal, 28-17. The Owls would be doubly motivated to face an old Big East foe like Rutgers after being unceremoniously kicked out of the league a few years ago. The Toronto venue is undeniably cool.
GMAC: Ohio vs. Middle Tennessee...Middle is likely to end up somewhere, as it figures to finish with 7 or more wins and thus hop ahead of 6-6 teams in the bowl queue. We suspect Mobile might be the destination at the expense of an ACC rep (if, indeed, the ACC gets enough eligible teams; Miami's possible BCS at-large status could come into play). Frank Solich's Bobcats are already bowl eligible and could return to the GMAC they participated in three years ago (losing to Southern Miss).
FIESTA: Boise State vs. TCU...A rematch of last year's Poinsettia Bowl would be very interesting if both finished the season unbeaten and earned respective BCS bids. We also think the system could possibly rig up a matchup between these two so the BCS "power conference" schools could miss both the Broncos and Frogs.
ROSE: Iowa vs. Oregon...Not the Rose Bowl matchup most would have anticipated prior to the season. Iowa's unlikely unbeaten run has the Hawkeyes lurking just outside the BCS title game mix, and if Texas should slip, Iowa has a decent chance of facing the SEC champ in the title game. Hot Oregon has even longer odds of reaching the title game but would nonetheless be favored over the Hawkeyes.
ORANGE: Alabama vs. Georgia Tech...This is likely the consolation prize for the Tide, either if losing the SEC title game to Florida or watching LSU do the same vs. the Gators. Meanwhile, Paul Johnson is quietly securing some Coach of the Year votes while moving his Yellow Jackets (improving by the week) to the top of the ACC.
SUGAR: Penn State vs. Cincinnati...We're projecting the Nittany Lions as a BCS at-large entry, although a loss this week vs. Ohio State probably knocks Joe Paterno down to the Outback or Capital One Bowl. Cincy looks a better bet to end up unbeaten than Iowa and thus might have a better shot to reach the title game if Texas or the SEC frontrunners stumble. We'll be happy to remind Brian Kelly how Shades ran up an 81-0 score on a weaker bunch of Bearcats many years ago. Bigger question: could an unbeaten Cincy really play for the national title?
BCS TITLE GAME: Florida vs. Texas...We called for this in our preview issue and still think this is the most-likely title pairing. We think.
Stay tuned...