Bowl Season Newsletters

HAWAII BOWL
Notre Dame +1.5 vs. Hawaii O/U 48
Wednesday, December 24, 8 pm ET ESPN - Honolulu
Recommendation: Notre Dame

We know what the predominant story surrounding this game. It will read something like this, “Notre Dame, after a 4-1 start to the campaign limped their way into a bowl. Playing in Hawaii’s backyard doesn’t look conducive to breaking a nine-game losing streak in postseason play.” We don’t buy into that thinking. While Hawaii was struggling through their very weak WAC schedule, the Irish were in the midst of battling the likes of Michigan State, Boston College, Pitt and USC. While the results weren’t always pretty for Notre Dame, those tough opponents should have prepared them well. The Warriors offense was a work in progress seemingly all season long. They shuffled in three different quarterbacks throughout the year with spotty results. While they have finally settled on Greg Alexander,the output has remained inconsistent. Putting up 42 points on New Mexico State and Idaho is far from impressive. Probably more telling was the 14-point output against Utah State or the measly 24 they hung on Washington State – perhaps the worst FBS team in the country. Hawaii really hasn’t risen to the occasion against BCS teams. They were predictably terrible against Florida and Oregon State but again struggled to dispatch Washington State, who had just come off their only win this season against FBS competition. Hawaii also blew a lead over a Cincinnati squad that was as flat as a pancake after securing their first Big East title and a trip to Orange Bowl. At least we saw signs of improvement from Jimmy Clausen this season. The much maligned yet highly touted quarterback threw 20 touchdown passes this season. He also increased his completion percentage to near 60% and looked much more comfortable in the pocket. He still made some bonehead throws at times but largely had more highlights than lowlights. The emergence of Golden Tate as a game changing playmaker has really aided his progression as a quarterback. Tate averaged over 17.4 yards per catch this season while racking up over 900 yards. His eight total touchdowns led the team and he proved to be a dynamic kick and punt returner as well. When examined these two teams sport very similar stats but when we start to figure in the level of competition that each team faced, Notre Dame’s numbers look quite a bit more impressive. We don’t think the Irish simply come in and roll over Hawaii, instead we think it will be a surprisingly entertaining and hotly contested bowl. As such, it is worth noting that Hawaii was one of the worst field goal kicking teams in the country connecting on just 48% of its attempts. In a close game that can make all the difference in the world. We’ll side with Notre Dame and call for them to snap their long running losing streak in postseason play.

MOTOR CITY BOWL
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan -6.5 O/U 62.5
Friday, December 26, 8 pm ET ESPN - Detroit
Recommendation: Central Michigan

Central Michigan will make the short trip to Detroit for the third consecutive year to play in the Motor City Bowl. If recent history proves correct, the Chippewas will have plenty of success. CMU has played four games at Ford Field the past three seasons resulting in a perfect 4-0 spread record. This is a team that has been a consistent offensive juggernaut averaging at least 30 ppg in each of the past three seasons. Obviously scoring has not been an issue for CMU since Dan Lefevour took over play calling duties three seasons ago. Often referred to as the poor man’s Tim Tebow, the former MAC Player of the Year has done it again with his legs and his arm. Although he missed time with injuries, LeFevour posted a MAC best 309 yards per game of total offense yardage. On the season in impressive fashion he ran for over 550 yards, threw for over 2,500 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns.. At his disposal are two absolute matchup nightmares for the Owls secondary. First is the 6-5, 205-pound Bryan Anderson with 2,800 career receiving yards and 21 touchdown receptions.The second is speedy Antonio Brown who is cut from the same cloth as former MAC game changer Dante Love or the NFL’s Steve Smith. Where CMU was efficient offensively, FAU was sloppy. Despite returning every significant starter from a breakout campaign in 2007 the Owls offense early on resembled a high school junior varsity squad. Rusty Smith was erratic at best, the receivers dropped a ton of passes, the running game was nearly non-existent and the offensive line gave away far too many sacks. While the protection would eventually get better and the touchdown count began improving at the end of the year, the Owls reserved their best performances for their weakest opponents. Additionally they hardly looked comfortable on the road. These are not generally the traits of a team worthy of support in a hostile environment. The turnover problem remained a major issue throughout the season allowing lesser foes to stay in games and better teams to pull away. The Owls finished second to last in turnover margin in the Sun Belt with a whopping 28 giveaways. In comparison, the Chippewas gave it away just 11 times this season. Neither team passes the grade defensively as they both allow about 30 points per game so we start to look for our advantages elsewhere. The two biggest advantages have already been discussed and both belong to Central Michigan. First is their de facto home field edge here in Michigan in a venue with which they are comfortable. The second is the very real prospect of getting extra possessions in part to sloppy play and turnovers from FAU. In a back and forth game, those extra possessions
will prove the difference as CMU covers the number.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
North Carolina vs. West Virginia pk O/U 44.5
Saturday, December 27, 1 pm ET ESPN - Charlotte, N.C.
Recommendation: West Virginia

This is another ultra competitive matchup in a bowl season
that features 23 games lined at -5 or lower. Each team here finished at 8-4 and they both posted similar scoring margins with UNC recording a +7.2 average while WVA finished at +8.1. The solid 7-4 point spread record of the Tar Heels and the money burning 4-7 ATS number put up by West Virginia tells more about the exceeded and failed expectations of each team. But despite the pointspread marks, WVU is really the better squad. Remember, most of the Mountaineers’ spread failures in 2008 are due to the fact that they were over-priced based on past reputation. This is the first time all season that they are not a favorite. Initial reaction to this game would be that North Carolina is the more balanced offense because West Virginia is not a proficient passing team. Also acknowledged would be the fact that North Carolina benefits by playing in Charlotte. Yet a detailed examination of this contest tells a different story as there are plenty of edges for the West Virginia side. For starters, Carolina is not necessarily a more balanced offensive unit. They have a 67.2 yard per game differential between rushing and passing while West Virginia’s is 81.9. UNC gets there in different ways and are the better passing team but WVA owns the superior rushing unit. Digging beyond the surface and matching the styles presented here, West Virginia gains yet another edge. Their option-based rushing attack was seen only once by North Carolina and that was in their 28-7 win over Georgia Tech. The final score looks nice, but UNC was torched for 326 rushing yards and 6.0 per carry. That should be an advantage for quarterback Pat White and the Mountaineers’ ground game. The WVU pass rush could also be a deciding factor as North Carolina’s offensive line has been penetrated for 14 sacks in its last five games. West Virginia has allowed their last three opponents to rush for 167 yards or better and at least 4.4 per carry but North Carolina’s running game has gone south over that same season-ending span, generating just 310 yards on 99 carries for 3.1 yards per attempt. Additionally the Tar Heels have been out gained by 61.6 yards per contest versus the nine bowl teams they faced during the regular season. They lost the time of possession battle by 7:38 minutes per game. Simply put, North Carolina has survived this season on 23 takeaways. That method of survival could be tough in this game as West Virginia has only committed eight turnovers in seven games against bowl bound teams. WVA’s Big East leading red zone defense figures to be a help as well. This should be a very close game but in the end, West Virginia’s numerous small edges will add up to a victory

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Florida State -4.5 vs. Wisconsin O/U 52.5
Saturday, December 27 4:30 pm ET ESPN - Orlando, Fla.
Recommendation: Over

Despite shuffling in a new quarterback for the third time in his three years as head coach, Brett Bielema and the Badger Nation had high expectations for 2008. Most of those expectations rested on the fact the Badgers returned PJ Hill, four big offensive linemen and nine starters on defense. The rosy outlook was tempered by week four as Wisconsin suffered an improbable loss to Michigan. Undefeated at the time, they led the Wolverines by 19 at the half only to give up 27 unanswered second half points. That devastating defeat sparked a string of five losses in six games to the upper-tier Big Ten teams. Wisconsin did manage to win three straight in the end with a come-from-behind win against Minnesota, a lackluster overtime win against Cal Poly and an easy win against a fading Indiana team. That trio was hardly impressive.In the midst of the uglinessthe Badgers made a switch at quarterback to Dustin Sherer. The results were underwhelming as he completed just 54% of his passes with as many interceptions as touchdowns. However the ground game, which had struggled to assert dominance against upper level competition, finally started clicking as PJ Hill and John Clay combined for 14 touchdowns and 870 yards rushing over the final five games. The Badgers scored 35 points per game during this stretch. The defense never seemed to recover as the run defense was spotty, the secondary was easily confused and the opposition quietly tamed the pass rush. The time off between their last game and this bowl game will have provided ample opportunity to regroup but we aren’t sure they are up to the task in facing a solid ground attack and surprisingly potent FSU offense. The Seminoles present a tough challenge with dual quarterback threats in Christian Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson. The duo combined for over 650 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Paired with the game breaking tandem of Antone Smith and Jermaine Thomas who combined for over 1,200 yards and 17 touchdowns this offense clicked to the tune of 33 points per game. Much like the Wisconsin defense, Florida State had plenty of expectations coming into the season but was largely to blame for several key losses. The Seminoles posted abysmal defensive true rushing numbers allowing over 5.40 ypc according to our proprietary numbers.PJ Hill and John Clay should have plenty of success and this potential for success on the ground should open it up for better than expected quarterback play. Florida State in particular has shown a recent trend of playing wild bowl games with a 44-27 finish with UCLA two years ago and a 35-28 loss against Kentucky last year. The perception of these two schools seems to default back to the days when they were powerhouse defensive minded bullies but this year’s reality suggests a very entertaining,high scoring contest that flies over a relatively low total.

EMERALD BOWL
Miami (FL) vs. California -7 O/U 50
Saturday, December 27, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Francisco
Recommendation: California

California makes its sixth straight bowl appearance under head coach Jeff Tedford as the Bears stay home in the Bay Area to battle Miami. California has won four of their last five bowl games and all five of those contests had at least 55 points scored and eclipsed the posted total.Improving off of last season’s 5-7 finish,Miami’s second-year Head Coach Randy Shannon makes his first bowl appearance. This year the Hurricanes were one of many teams that finished 4-4 in the ACC. Miami, at one point during October, looked to be the favorite to win their division. That excitement was cut short after a handful of disappointing losses. They did manage to beat Virginia Tech and Wake Forest at home, but had just 16 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense in each contest. Miami is a below average running team and freshman quarterback Robert Marve completed just 54% of his passes with nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions. This is the third straight season that Miami has passed for less than 200 yards per game and while the Hurricanes tied for fifth in the nation in red zone efficiency, they only got inside the opponents 20-yard line 44 times. Miami’s run defense allowed 146 ypg and as a team they finished 11th in scoring defense in the ACC at 24 points per game. Miami’s sub-par run defense should struggle to contain Cal’s Jahvid Best. The super sophomore scored 14 touchdowns and gained nearly 1,400 rushing yards at a clip 8.0 yards per rush. California’s backup running back Shane Vereen provides a nice change of pace and the two combined to rush for more than 2,000 yards. Cal quarterback Kevin Riley will start behind center. Both he and backup Nate Longshore finished with a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio despite modest passing numbers. California worked through some injuries on both sides of the ball this season but its strength was an experienced defensive unit that finished top-25 nationally allowing just 315 yards per game. Cal can also bring consistent pressure to the quarterback and finished the season with 33 sacks.Cal also was third in the nation with 23 interceptions and was in the top ten in turnover differential at +14. That should be a huge edge versus a Miami team that was minus -9 in the turnover column with just four interceptions. Miami will need to make some special teams plays and avoid turnover troubles to pull off the upset. Cal coach Jeff Tedford has proven he can plan and prepare his team for key games and bowl contests while Miami coach Randy Shannon makes his bowl debut. This experience edge and several fundamental advantages gives California the edge. We anticipate Miami to continue its struggles on offense and Cal to come out with a spirited effort. The Golden Bears were 7-0 at home this season and with the home field advantage in this spot, we’ll call for yet another victory. Lay the points.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech +1.5 O/U 47
Sunday, December 28, 8:15 pm ET ESPN - Shreveport, La.
Recommendation: Louisiana Tech

In games against FBS competition, Northern Illinois’ victories came against teams with records of 4-8, 3-9, 6-6, 3-9 and 2-10. Their only win over an even semi-respectable opponent came at home on a last second field goal against Bowling Green. Throughout the season, the Huskies earned a reputation for playing solid defense and in the MAC they routinely ranked in the top tier in many defensive categories. But a closer examination shows that against the better offenses on the schedule, NIU was far from a defensive juggernaut. Against Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Minnesota, the Huskies allowed almost 35 points per game. Louisiana Tech’s resume isn’t great but with wins over Mississippi State, Fresno State and San Jose State, they have proved to be credible enough to compete and beat decent teams. As we turn to the fundamentals it should be noted that in Northern Illinois’ five FBS wins, they averaged 225 ypg on the ground. While on the surface that seems impressive, those five opponents showed no propensity for stopping the run this season as they allowed an average of 185 rushing yards per game. Louisiana Tech has been up to the task this season with its rush defense, holding opponents to just slightly more than 100 yards per game. Tech’s ability to run the ball as well as contain the run should put the onus on Northern Illinois to play out of its comfort zone. In their last game of the season against Nevada, they held the Wolfpack,a team that averages 290 rushing yards per season, to just 103 yards. However, Tech still lost that game as Nevada was able to adjust and torch the Bulldogs’ defense for nearly 400 passing yards. Northern Illinois will not be able to duplicate that passing game success. Freshman quarterback Chandler Harnish with 478 rushing yards is more of a run-first type option. He has just seven passing touchdowns on the season. As further evidence of the weak passing attack consider the fact that NIU doesn’t have a single receiver that ranks in the conference top ten in receptions or receiving yards per game. Offensively on the other side of the mix, Louisiana Tech is a completely different team since Ross Jenkins replaced Tyler Bennett as the starting quarterback. A more conservative run-oriented offense emerged and Louisiana Tech averaged 220 yards per game on the ground over its last seven games. The end result improved as well as the Bulldogs closed the campaign on a 5-2 straight up run while winning three games outright as an underdog. Overall, on defense Northern Illinois is better than most of the WAC competition that Louisiana Tech faced but the fundamental strengths for each unit in this game all favor Tech. The Accu-Stat numbers project that the Bulldogs should out rush the Huskies and with a significant advantage in yards per rush on the defensive side they are a very live underdog. With home crowd advantage and a fundamental edge, we’ll play Louisiana Tech with confidence.

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
NC State +7 vs. Rutgers O/U 52
Monday, December 29, 3 pm ET ESPN - Birmingham, Ala.
Recommendation: NC State

This may be a lower-tier bowl game but the selection committee got it right when they matched-up two teams that closed out the season on big runs. Rutgers endured a 0-3 start that turned into a 1-5 record.. At that point, with only a win against Morgan State, it did not look like the Scarlet Knights would be going bowling. Yet they caught fire and won their last six games to finish at 7-5. Three of their six wins were against bowl teams; Connecticut, Pittsburgh and South Florida. A review of their schedule shows that four of their five early losses were also against bowl teams. NC State can certainly relate to Rutgers. The Wolfpack were 2-6 before winning their last four games to finish at 6-6. They ended the season with three straight wins over ACC bowlers;Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami-Florida. Without question both teams got to this point because of their successful quarterback play. Mike Teel, Rutgers’ three-year starter, got off to a terrible start but was able to turn it around, looking like one of the top quarterbacks in the country down the stretch. The Scarlet Knights put up an incredible 46 points per game over their last five wins. Even with the slow start Rutgers season long numbers were a respectable 4.72 yards per rush and 7.78 yards per pass. But in their six-game winning streak, Teel averaged 316 yards per game at a rate of 9.76 yards per pass. NC State can also trace its turnaround to the quarterback position.Russell Wilson was not the starter to open the season and was injured in his first appearance. When healthy he was simply phenomenal. He earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors and was chosen to the all-conference team. Wilson threw just one interception all year and has a current streak of 226 passes without a pick. He has 16 touchdown passes and no interceptions over his last eight starts. Coupled with an ability to run the ball he kept alive many of NC State’s scoring drives with third down scrambles. Overall he means as much to his teams’ offensive success as any one player in the country. For the season, the NC State offense ran for 4.91 yards per rush and threw for 5.79 yards per pass. However those numbers include three games in which Wilson either was limited or did not play due to injury. Each team has holes in its defense as they both allowed nearly 5.0 yards per rush and 7.0 yards per pass for the season. These two hot offenses should have a significant edge over the defense.We had the game lined at pick’em in one set of our power ratings we fully expect the result to be decided late in the fourth quarter. Even with Teel on a tear we believe Wilson has the capabilities to match scores and make as many plays. We’ll take the points with NC State and consider
them a live underdog in what should be a great game.

ALAMO BOWL
Northwestern +13 vs. Missouri O/U 66
Monday, December 29, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Antonio
Recommendation: Northwestern

As further evidence that the Big Ten is significantly down this year consider the pointspreads here in the 2008 bowl season. The Big Ten has seven bowl teams and six of them are underdogs. All totaled five of them are underdogs of more than a touchdown and four of them are in the double digit range. In a bowl season in which only six games have double-digit pointspreads the betting marketplace clearly doesn’t respect the Big Ten. Northwestern wasn’t a very good team this year. The Wildcats somehow managed to eke out nine wins in the regular season despite finishing 83rd in true rushing yards per carry and 81st in true passing yards per attempt. Senior quarterback CJ Bacher was awful at times, finishing with as many interceptions as touchdowns. Senior running back Tyrell Sutton battled injuries all year and gained only 776 yards on the ground. The offense was largely dink and dunk, with only one receiver, Eric Peterman, averaging more than ten yards per reception. The Wildcats had -5 turnover margin and was ranked 85th in the country in turnovers per game. Despite all of these negative numbers, Pat Fitzgerald guided this mediocre team to a fourth place Big Ten finish and their first bowl appearance since 2005. The schedule was the primary factor for success as Northwestern played a ridiculously weak schedule. Only two of their nine victories came against bowl bound foes. They had a +4 turnover margin and beat Iowa early when the Hawkeyes were struggling. They also beat Minnesota on an interception return touchdown in the game’s final seconds. That’s it when it comes to quality wins in 2008 for the Wildcats. Missouri didn’t exactly step up in class this season either. The Tigers were annihilated against the spread in all four of their tough games in 2008. They lost outright as a double-digit favorites against Oklahoma State and Kansas. And they were blown off the field in ugly losses to Texas and Missouri. The Tigers covered only two pointspreads in their final eight games of the season and those two wins came against Colorado and Iowa State who combined to post a 2-14 straight up and 4-12 against the spread mark versus Big XII competition. Despite those failings down the stretch, the Tigers’ offense is extremely potent. Quarterback Chase Daniel was the Big XII Offensive Player of the Year as a junior and his senior year was every bit as good. Playmaking speedster Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman combined to catch 22 touchdowns and 178 receptions for more than 2,100 receiving yards. Overall, there is no question Missouri has the advantage on offense but the Tigers rarely showed much on the defensive side of the equation. In a game of motivation,Missouri can’t be all too excited about playing in a second-tier bowl. Meanwhile Northwestern has shown the ability to keep it close and will have enough in its offensive arsenal to keep this game within the number against a less than impressive defense.

HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Maryland vs. Nevada -1 O/U 58
Tuesday, December 30, 4:30 pm ET ESPN - Boise, Idaho
Recommendation: Over

Late in the season Maryland was positioned to win their ACC division in a crazy conference race. However they folded under the pressure and dropped three of their final four games. Despite the poor finish to the season, the Terrapins had hoped for a more enticing bowl invitation from the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Their hopes were dashed when the committee instead chose Florida State as West Virginia’s opponent. This headline explains the disappointment of all parties involved, “The Maryland football program wanted to play in a more prominent bowl game. The Humanitarian Bowl wanted a team with more national sizzle. Neither got its wish.” The Terrapins really struggled on the defensive side all season long. Although they lost half of their starters from their 2007 unit, the Maryland defense was projected as a solid if not unspectacular unit. But in a recurrent theme the defense disappointed on the field, finishing in the bottom quarter of the ACC in total yards allowed, pass defense and rush defense. Their inability to stop the run is of particular concern in this match-up as Nevada is one of the strongest ruhsing teams in the nation. The Wolfpack averaged over 290 yards on the ground per game at a clip of 6.5 yards per rush according to our Accu-stats. This group overcame the loss of their heart-and-soul leader when Luke Lippincott was lost for the season after just 17 carries. His replacement Vai Taua, has been phenomenal. After carrying the ball just 13 times last season the sophomore running back took full advantage of his opportunity this year racking up 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns on 214 touches. The Nevada “pistol offense” is directed by one of the nation’s top offensive players,the dynamic dual threat quarterback, Colin Kapernick. On the season, Kapernick ran for over 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns while throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 19 scores. But as good as the offense has been, the defense has been as bad. The Wolfpack will hang their hats on what amounts to FBS football’s third best rush defense but those numbers are pretty easily discounted by way of their pass defense which ranks dead last. Simply put, opponents don’t have to run the ball when they can pass for over 320 yards per game.Fundamentally speaking it will be a poor matchup here against Maryland who ranked second in the ACC in pass offense. Chris Turner may have been sloppy against some quality BCS defenses but he and star receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey should have a field day in Boise. This is a matchup where the two teams’ offensive strengths are matched up favorably against each team’s biggest defensive weakness. Those advantages should translate into a high scoring affair and with a total that hasn’t yet cracked the 60-point plateau we feel extremely confident in playing this one up and over.

TEXAS BOWL
Western Michigan vs. Rice -3 O/U 72.5
Thursday, December 30, 8 pm ET NFL Network - Houston
Recommendation: Rice

Rice was picked by most to finish in the bottom half of its six-team division. Yet the Owls surprised posting a 9-3 mark for the season while winning its last six games. Along the way they earned victories over solid bowl-bound teams; Houston, Southern Miss and Memphis. With just one winning season in its last six season, the Owls will be plenty excited about this bowl opportunity. Their opponent, Western Michigan and also ended the year with a 9-3 mark and delivered wins against Illinois and MAC conference bowl-bound teams; Northern Illinois and Buffalo. Their losses came against Nebraska, Central Michigan and Ball State -- all of which are bowl teams. As we see it, this should be a shootout as both offenses have been excellent this season. Teams and players from Conference-USA just don’t get much national attention unless they are in the hunt for an undefeated season. In fact, Rice may be the most unheralded top tier offensive team in the nation. The Owls gained 5,700 yards this season and topped 35 points scored in six straight games. They run the ball well at 5.23 yards per rush and throw it even better at 7.69 yards per pass. Like the team, Rice quarterback Chase Clement had a tremendous year without receiving much publicity. He is an excellent spread offense quarterback and has a bevy of solid receivers. Widouts Jarett Dillard and James Casey each posted over 1,200 yards while combining for 31 touchdowns. Only two players in the MAC posted equal numbers and one of them, Jamarko Simmons, plays for Western Michigan. Overall Western Michigan has not been as productive on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos rushed for 4.56 ypc and passed for 6.74 ypp, yet they still managed to score 22 or more points in 11 of its 12 games. They have much better defensive numbers than Rice as the Owls allow 5.99 ypc and 6.73 ypp. Still we expect defense to be an afterthought in this matchup. The Rice offense will move the ball and score plenty of points as no defense other than Texas has been able to slow down this group. When facing comparable speed and athleticism, Rice has had no trouble piling up the points and yards. The defensive edge for WMU is not going to be enough. Rice is plenty content to use its offense to just trade points and eventually outscore the opposition. It has worked well for the Owls this season as they covered eight of its nine straight up wins. Despite the spread and straight up success not one game was decided by less than five points. With the short price in this game we are essentially asking Rice to just win the game. With the benefit of playing it is hometown and this being the last chance for Clement and several other seniors to showcase their ability, we’ll call for the Rice Owls to earn its tenth win this season. Lay the points.

HOLIDAY BOWL
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon +3 O/U 76.5
Tuesday, December 30, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Diego
Recommendation: Oregon

For a significant portion of the season, Oklahoma State was on the cusp of being considered part of the Big XII elite. While they earned a big win over Missouri the Cowboys were unable to register a win against the “big three”. While they weren’t that far removed with a hard fought four-point loss to Texas, they were crushed by both Texas Tech and Oklahoma. In those games against the four above mentioned opponents OSU put up 28.3 points and 409.5 yards per game but they allowed 42 points and 536 yards per game. Oklahoma State is no question battle tested whereas Oregon was able to thrive with its funky offense in the mediocre PAC-10. Oregon’s offense may not feature the high-flying passing attack of those aforementioned teams but in terms of scoring output and yardage they are equal to the task. Still the Ducks fell short when asked to step up in class in conference. They were crushed by USC and failed to beat California in a rain-soaked game that should have favored their strong rushing attack. Fundamentally Oregon is the top rushing team in the country. The Ducks average 6.88 yards per rush and nearly a yard more per carry than an Oklahoma State team that averages an impressive 256 rushing yards per game. Defensively the edge also belongs to Oregon in stopping the run as the Ducks held opponents to just 3.87 yards per carry. OSU’s opponents netted 4.48 per attempt. Oklahoma State’s rush defense looks good on paper as they allowed just 124 yards per game. But opposing teams eschewed the run because success through the air was all but assumed as the Cowboys allowed 269 yards per game throw the air. Furthermore many opponents were forced to play from behind and abandon the run. The Ducks are fundamentally a good play as they enter here as an underdog that outplays the opposition in the running game on both sides of the ball. We also give Oregon the edge in terms of coaching and preparation.Oregon was forced to play four quarterbacks this season yet offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense continued to prosper. Coming out of two bye weeks this season, the Ducks put up 54 and 65 points respectively. Plus we must recall that last season when Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon went down late in the campaign the Ducks limped into the postseason on a three-game losing streak. Yet they showed up in the Sun Bowl and beat South Florida 56-21 as a 6-point underdog. This program will be prepared. While the offenses will be front and center both coaches have indicated that it will be the defense that makes the difference. If we rank these teams equal on offense, then the difference or advantage lies with the stop units. We expect the Oregon defense to earn the win as they force couple of turnovers or hold Oklahoma State to a couple of field goals instead of touchdowns. Take the points

ARMED FORCES BOWL
Houston -2.5 vs. Air Force O/U 64
Wednesday, December 30, Noon ESPN - Fort Worth, Texas
Recommendation: Houston

Air Force returns to the Armed Forces Bowl for the second consecutive year. The Falcons’ entered last season’s game on a three-game winning streak and built a 21-0 lead over California before the hibernating Bears woke up and piled up over 500 yards offense to emerge with a 42-36 win. In facing Houston, Air Force is again matched with a significantly superior offensive opponent. The Falcons previously faced Houston this season in an early September game down in Dallas when Hurricane Ike forced the game out of Houston. With the distractions,Air Force emerged with a 31-28 victory in rainy and windy conditions.The Falcons ran for 380 yards but did not complete a single pass in seven attempts. Houston piled up over 530 yards in the defeat as quarterback Case Keenum threw for over 360 yards and four touchdowns in the difficult conditions. The expectation in this contest is that Houston’s top rated offense will prove too powerful for Air Force as the Cougars get redemption for the early season loss. Overachieving Air Force enters off two lopsided losses to superior Mountain West Conference teams and will face a Houston team that has significant advantages on offense. The Falcons have a freshman quarterback operating the offense as Tim Jefferson took over in early October.He has attempted 10 or more passes in only one of his eight starts. He does however, possess good mobility and is another of many running threats for the Falcons. This game provides an interesting dynamic with the contrast in styles. The Air Force spread option with a zone-running scheme has averaged over 268 rushing ypg. Meanwhile, Houston prefers to travel through the air, piling up 414 passing ypg. The Cougars led the nation in total offense with 575 ypg and Keenum led the nation with 4,768 passing yards while throwing for 43 touchdowns behind a 67% completion rate. The Cougars scored at least 40 ppg in seven of their final eight contests and Air Force proved vulnerable against the MWC’s top offenses of Utah, BYU and TCU. As you might expect with a quick strike offense,Houston ranks among the nation’s worst in time-of-possession.Air Force will attempt to chew up the clock with its ground game and keep the Cougars’ offense off the field. The Cougars’ defense is vulnerable and did allow 169 rushing ypg. If Air Force can control the clock and run with success, then they will no doubt have a shot to beat Houston for a second time. But the belief here is that Air Force benefited greatly throughout the season with some timely turnovers and scheduling spots. They finished +12 in turnover margin but against the three other teams they faced with a winning record, the Falcons were just +1 in turnover margin and they lost all three. So while the Falcons hold the rushing advantage, Houston is the much better overall team and with an explosive offense that can extend the field, they’ll exact revenge.

SUN BOWL
Pittsburgh +3 vs. Oregon State O/U 53
Wednesday, December 31 2 pm ET CBS - El Paso, Texas
Recommendation: Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh finished the season 9-3 and for the first time during the four-year tenure of Dave Waanstadt, the Panthers had a winning record.In the minds of many however, the season was still a disappointment.Opening the season with an inexplicable loss to Bowling Green was the continuation of the established pattern of losing to inferior teams. This has been the knock against the Panthers and more specifically head coach Dave Wannstedt. The numbers over the past two seasons illustrate Pittsburgh’s inconsistency as the Panthers are 3-7 ATS as a favorite and have suffered three losses in straight up fashion as a favorite of more than a touchdown. However on the flip side, the Panthers are an impressive 10-3 as an underdog and have shown the ability to compete with anyone. Motivation can be a key factor in predicting winners in these second tier Bowl Games. With that in mind, Oregon State is probably disappointed to be in El Paso for the Sun Bowl. With their early season victory over USC, the Beavers were in position to face Penn State in the Rose Bowl but fell short in a season ending loss to their in-state rival, Oregon. While players will be expected to put that disappointment behind them, consider this quote from head coach Mike Riley; “There will be some residual effect, but this is no time for babies. We can’t whine about that. We’re going to have to get ready to go.” Even with a month to shake the disappointment we expect the loss of a Rose Bowl opportunity to leave this OSU team less than enthused. While motivation isimportant,fundamentally the blueprint for success against Oregon State has been in running the football as they have allowed nearly five yards per carry on the ground. When Oregon State was outgained on the ground, they are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. This season they were out rushed by Utah, Stanford, Penn State and Oregon to the tune of more than 100 yards per game. On the other side of the equation when the Beavers out rushed the opposition they were 8-0. In those eight victories, they averaged more than 200 ypg while allowing just 81. So our fundamental question for this game centers around the rush offense and defense of both teams. And in our projections, in each case Pittsburgh holds the edge. Pitt running back LeSean McCoy netted over 1,700 yards from scrimmage while averaging nearly five yards per carry saving his best performances for the Panthers’ toughest opponents. Additionally in 624 touches the last two seasons he has not had a single fumble. On the other side of the equation, Super Freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is battling a significant shoulder injury that kept him out of the Beavers’ game against Oregon. Injuries are always a concern and their second leading gainer James Rodgers is out for this game. Additionally all of the little advantages of being the more disciplined team should also contribute to our edge with Pittsburgh. On the season, Pitt has been called for only 55 penalties compared to the 80 called on the Beavers. Defensively Pitt is better against both the pass and the run and with so much else in our favor, we’ll take the points with the better defensive team.

MUSIC CITY BOWL
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt +4 O/U 41
Wednesday, December 31, 3:30 PM ET ESPN - Nashville, Tenn.
Recommendation: Vanderbilt

You would have thought Boston College was No. 1 in the country with a 34-0 lead heading in the fourth quarter of the ACC title game only to blow it by what we read in the newspapers after the loss to Virginia Tech. The disappointment of missing a BCS game was immense for a team that started the season with the expectations of being middle-of-the-road ACC club. Sitting a 2-3 in conference play after a home loss to Clemson, the Eagles shutout Notre Dame 17-0. Then in multiple must-win situations closed out the regular season with three straight. Included were back-to-back road wins over Florida State and Wake Forest. Few teams expended more energy over the last month of the season to get into their conference championship game. Getting to the game was an accomplishment but Boston College got beat decidedly in the most important game of the season and must now rebound. A lot of what occurred was similar to that of last season when they closed the season with huge wins and then lost to Virginia Tech in the league championship. In their disappointment last season the Eagles managed to rebound with a win over Michigan State in the Champs Sports Bowl – although they failed to cover the five-point spread. The problems we see in this matchup however transcend the motivational factors. With a newbie quarterback and an average running game, this team is almost as inept as Vanderbilt on offense. Boston College quarterback Dominuque Davis has delivered mixed results in replacement of the injured Chris Crane. Not that Crane was a game-changer but he had developed enough continuity to be effective.Davis completed less that 48% of his passes on 102 attempts and while there is nearly a month to prepare, the Eagles are unlikely to put the game in his hands. As for Vanderbilt, they also entered the campaign with little expectation. We actually predicted that they would go winless in SEC play. They pulled off a couple of stunners early on and found themselves 5-0 overall and 3-0 in conference before mid-October. Their inability to move the football eventually caught up with this team and proved too much to overcome. The Commodores’ strength lies in a 29th rated defense that posted 18 interceptions and 30 sacks. Those numbers are not too different from what we get with Boston College and despite ranking in the top ten nationally in total defense, the ACC found ways to score points on the Eagles. In nine league games, BC allowed 26 points per game despite the fact that only one team in the ACC ranked in the top 50 in total offense and that all but three ranked 81st or worse. From a motivational standpoint,all aspects favor the Commodores. Snapping a 26-year postseason drought and playing a bowl game in their hometown this team motivated and excited to perform. The same is not likely for Boston College. Motivation aside this is not going to be a fluid game and we expect a lot of three-and-outs on offense. In catching more than a field goal, we’ll lean with the “home” team Commodores.

INSIGHT BOWL
Minnesota +10.5 vs. Kansas O/U 58
Wednesday, December 31 5:30 pm ET NFL Network - Tempe, Ariz.
Recommendation: Minnesota

The Minnesota program showed tremendous growth in the second season under head coach Tim Brewster. Starting from scratch the Golden Gophers improved from 1-11 to a respectable 7-5. They have recruited well and are poised to make an even bigger jump in the years to come. In the here-and-now however, they still should be played with caution. While the end results were impressive, it must be noted that Minnesota took advantage of a weak schedule and avoided Michigan State and Penn State in conference play. Overall their non-conference slate featured wins over Montana State, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic. All of those team finished 6-6 with the exception of 7-5 Montana State. Overall, Minnesota didn’t beat a FBS team that was above .500. The Gophers do have talent on the offensive and defensive sides of the football. Their defense forced a Big Ten-best 30 turnovers which presented the offense a short field on multiple occasions. The offense relied heavily on two playmakers, wide receiver Eric Decker and quarterback Adam Weber. Decker, who finished the regular season with 925 receiving yards and six touchdowns, was hurt (ankle) late in the season but is expected to be fully recovered. We’ll also note that Brewster wasted little time in tweaking his coaching staff after the regular season as he brought in assistant Tim Davis to replace Phil Meyer as the offensive line coach/running game coordinator.Davis has worked at both the college and NFL levels, including as an assistant offensive line coach with the Miami Dolphins under Nick Saban. While his presence is an upgrade, it is not likely to have an immediate impact on a truly anemic rushing attack. Minnesota ranked last in the Big Ten and 104th in the nation in rushing averaging just 3.2 yards per rush. Freshman DeLeon Eskridge, the team’s leading rusher, averaged more than four yards per carry in only one of Minnesota’s last five games. On the other side of the equation, Kansas comes in battle tested after the Big XII schedule cycle put Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma onto the slate. As is the case with most of the Big XII, the Kansas’ offense had little trouble scoring as they averaged 32.7 ppg. That type of firepower puts Minnesota in a situation of having to play its best offensive opponent of the season. In analyzing Minnesota, we find similarities to a team like Vanderbilt. The early season success was reliant upon creating turnovers on a routine basis. Late in the season when those types of plays were void, the Gophers struggled. The defense was no longer assisted by easy scores from the offense and Minnesota was outscored by an average of over 20 ppg its last four contests.Kansas too had its fair share of defensive woes but when we account for the difference in conference play, the Jayhawks numbers were no better or no worse than that of Minnesota. Still while Kansas has posted some high-powered offensive numbers, it should be pointed out that the Jayhawks didn’t win a road game by more than three all season long. Additionally Big XII favorites of more than three are just 13-26 ATS in bowl games against other BCS conference teams. Take the Golden Gophers as they again prove to be better that the sum of their stats.

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
LSU vs. Georgia Tech -4 O/U 50.5
Wednesday, December 31, 7:30 pm ET ESPN - Atlanta
Recommendation: Georgia Tech

Critics said that Paul Johnson’s triple option attack would not work in a major conference. Even the most optimistic projections didn’t call for the type of season that was delivered. After all Georgia Tech was not supposed to compete for an ACC Championship and they certainly weren’t supposed to snap a five game losing streak to in-state rival Georgia. Yet that all happened and the naysayers have been left with egg on their face. The Yellow Jackets have been rewarded with a de facto home game in the former Peach Bowl after posting an impressive nine-win campaign. Despite not yet having the personnel recruited to run the option, the Jackets posted the nation’s third best ground attack and averaged over 288 yards per game. Their 6.38 yards per carry average puts them in the top five nationally according to our true rushing Accu-stats. While there were hiccups along the way, Tech really started to find a rhythm toward the end of the season. They exploded for 86 points in the final two games against Georgia and Miami(FL) and just two weeks prior had posted 31 points on Florida State. Jonathan Dwyer and Josh Nesbit have been a formidable duo and Roddy Jones who gained over 9.3 yards per touch, has been a solid change-of-pace spark for the offense. The defense also outperformed expectations showing well against both the pass and the run despite losing seven key contributors and Defensive Coordinator Jon Tenuta in the off season. Although the numbers dropped off at the tail end of the campaign due in part to injuries, the Jackets ranked 20th nationally with 32 quarterback sacks. Meanwhile the Bayou Bengals didn’t find the same success in trying to replace coordinators and key contributors this season.The Tigers’ offense has really struggled to find any rhythm as the quarterback play has been atrocious. None of the three quarterbacks completed more than 55% of their passes and the overall play was so poor that Les Miles opted to start freshman Jordon Jefferson in the season finale against Arkansas. Still while the struggles on offense garnered headlines, the real story has been the decline of the defense. Under coordinator Bo Pelini the Tigers had built championship caliber teams. This year’s in his absence the team has been unrecognizable to the faithful. Not only did they finish with the ninth overall rated defense in the SEC but they ranked dead last in conference play allowing 32 points per game. When you consider the fact that LSU faced South Carolina, Auburn and Mississippi State (three of the worst offenses in the conference) those numbers become extremely damning. Georgia Tech showed it its defeat of Georgia that it’s offense can work against the speed of the SEC. Playing at home in front of the Atlanta faithful gives Georgia Tech an advantage and with plenty of motivation, we’ll back the better of the two teams.

OUTBACK BOWL
Iowa vs. South Carolina +3.5 O/U 43
Thursday, January 1, 11 am ET ESPN - Tampa, Fla.
Recommendation: South Carolina

This game projects to be a defensive matchup with long-time coaches Kirk Ferentz and Steve Spurrier squaring off. When looking at these two teams we clearly notice that both closed out the campaign headed in different directions. The Hawkeyes finished the season winning three-straight with an upset over then undefeated Penn State and a 55-0 blowout over rival Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks lost their last two games to Florida and Clemson by a combined margin of 87-20. Still we must keep an open mind and consider the full body of work of both teams. Unquestionably, the Gamecocks played the much tougher schedule in the SEC. Games against Florida, Clemson, Ole Miss and Georgia are just a few of the speed orientated teams that littered the South Carolina slate. Iowa played a watered down Big Ten schedule and even avoided playing Ohio State. From a perception standpoint, how much should the win over Penn State play into handicapping this game? Outside of that contest, Iowa’s body of work is no better or no worse than that of South Carolina. Now we won’t discredit Iowa’s monster win, but it’s too easy to toss aside the team that looked bad down the stretch in favor of one that played well. It is important to remember that with the amount of time in between the end of the season and the bowl game, a team can lose momentum as quickly as it can be gained. On the field, the vital matchup just could be South Carolina redshirt freshman quarterback Stephen Garcia against a formidable Iowa defense. The Gamecocks’ offense threw 24 interceptions on the season, while Iowa picked off 20 passes. In addition, the Gamecocks found it tough sledding on the ground, running for an average of just 98.3 yards per game. Again, this all seems to favor Iowa with its stout defense that ranked tenth in the nation against the run. On the other side of the football, the Hawkeyes will have their own “green” quarterback with Ricky Stanzi taking the snaps. Stanzi was rarely in the position of having to make a difference as running back Shonn Greene and his 1,700+ yards keyed the success. This is a matchup however where the Hawkeyes are not going to be able to sit back, run the football and coast to victory. South Carolina has shown the ability to be one of the top stop defensive units in the SEC. The stats don’t necessarily show it but the speed and pursuit of the football are there. Let’s also acknowledge that USC’s offense was not as bad as the numbers suggest. They surprisingly outgained nine of their first 10 opponents on the season. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes were actually out gained in four of their last five football games. Reports out of Columbia had the Gamecocks holding a players’ only meeting after their fiasco against Clemson to close the season. Last season’s bowl season saw six teams close out the year on runs of 5-1 or better and all six lost outright and against the spread. We toss aside what is fresh in most people’s minds and look at the bigger picture, which makes South Carolina the play.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Michigan State vs. Georgia -7.5 O/U 45
Thursday, January 1, 1 pm ET ABC - Orlando, Fla.
Recommendation: Georgia

Despite facing perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, Georgia began 2008 with high aspirations for a BCS Title berth. Ranked as the No. 1 team in the nation for the first month of the season, they appeared to be well on their way with what were regarded as impressive wins at South Carolina and Arizona State. It all collapsed when in a “blackout” game at home against Alabama, the Bulldogs were throttled by the Tide in a 41-30 loss. Georgia never seemed to fully recover,struggling to dispatch Vanderbilt,Tennessee, Kentucky and Auburn. Losses outright to Florida and Georgia Tech in games of significant consequence down the stretch perhaps indicated that Georgia was overrated. Further indication of market inflation is the fact that the Bulldogs have failed to cover eight consecutive games as a favorite. Therein lies the value as the market has over adjusted in response to Georgia’s repeated failures against the number. Still our play here is more of a play against Michigan State. Outside of Javon Ringer there isn’t much to like about Michigan State’s offense. The receiving corps looked like a weak unit after losing Devin Thomas and Kellen Davis in the off-season. Those concerns played out on the field as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes and had as many picks (eight) as he did touchdowns. His worst performances came against the best competition as he combined to throw three interceptions and no touchdowns in games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State. Knowing that, it isn’t hard to understand why Ringer carried the ball a staggering 370 times this season. Yet while Ringer has proven to be a game breaker against lesser foes, he has largely failed when forced to play against a solid defensive unit. In the three biggest games of the season against Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State, he barely averaged three yards per carry as he was held to 163 yards on 54 carries. Those same three opponents racked up over 462 yards of their own on the ground. Furthermore the Spartans lost by a combined count of 104-25 to Penn State and Ohio State. These two teams were the only opponents on their schedule that held a comparable athletic edge like Georgia. Matthew Stafford will be displaying his skills for a number of pro scouts and we don’t expect him to disappoint. He finished the year as the SEC’s leading passer and sported a solid 22-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio. But the real key to Georgia’s rout will be Knowshon Moreno who against some of the toughest defenses in the country closed the season with five 100+ yard rushing efforts in his final seven games. This should prove to be a cakewalk as we lay the points with Georgia.

GATOR BOWL
Clemson -2.5 vs. Nebraska O/U 55
Thursday, January 1, 1 pm CBS - Jacksonville, Fla.
Recommendation: Clemson

What a turnaround for the Clemson Tigers. Mired in the malaise of another underachieving season, the program took action and fired Tommy Bowden after the Tigers fell to 3-4. More so than the actual results of the season, it appeared that the reason Bowden was fired was that he had lost his team. Several quotes attributed to key players after the coaching change spoke harshly regarding their opinion of Bowden. Team leaders CJ Spiller and Cullen Harper came out strongly and voiced their criticism. This program was in disarray until Dabo Swinney took over on an interim basis and led the Tigers to victory in four of its last five games. With the turnaround complete, he was given the head coaching position officially after the Tigers ended the regular season by crushing their in-state rival, South Carolina. In fairness to Bowden, the real cause for the lack of success was the overwhelming amount of injuries and attrition suffered along the offensive line. Trying to replace three lost starters Clemson used eight different starting combinations in its 12 games. They started three red shirt freshmen and in mid-season were forced to reactivate coach Bobby Hutchinson who had opted to forgo his final year of eligibility to join the coaching staff. It wasn’t until the final three games of the season that Clemson started the same five linemen for three consecutive games. Perhaps not coincidentally the Clemson offense started to pick up around the same time. Meanwhile State and even Baylor seemed to warrant more coverage. The Cornhuskers finished the campaign 8-4 under first year head coach Bo Pelini and the enthusiasm for the program has been restored. Expected to immediately have an impact on the defense, the results weren’t there as Nebraska allowed 362 yards per game and ranked just 66th nationally. These numbers were a far cry from Pelini’s previous successes. In 2003 his first year as Nebraska’s defensive coordinator the defense improved from 55th to 11th in the nation. In 2004 Pelini was Oklahoma’s co-defensive coordinator and the Sooners were 6th in rushing defense and 11th in scoring defense. He joined the LSU staff in 2005 as the Tigers’ defensive coordinator. LSU was ranked third nationally in overall defense for each of his three years with the Tigers. The same overwhelming improvement did not occur for Nebraska. Against both the run and the pass, the Cornhuskers were susceptible. While Clemson’s season long numbers don’t show it, this offense is capable as evidenced by the fact that they scored 27 or more in four of its last five games. Defensively Clemson performed well all season long allowing only two opponents, Alabama and Florida State, to score more than 21 points. All totaled they held six of their 12 opponents to 14 or fewer points. In this matchup Clemson holds advantages over Nebraska on both sides of the ball. We expect a strong effort from Tigers and will side with the better defensive team in a motivated setting. Lay the short price.

ROSE BOWL
Penn State vs. USC -10 O/U 45.5
Thursday, January 1, 4:30 pm ET ABC - Pasadena, Calif.
Recommendation: Under

Many would argue this Rose Bowl matchup would be a perfect game for a No. 4 versus No. 5 seed in an eight-team playoff system.While that projected “playoff” game won’t take place, this game still has plenty of meaning as Pasadena gets its traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-10 matchup. The overall story for both teams this season is strikingly similar. Both USC and Penn State played in conferences that were down, they both dominated inferior foes and they each had one small blemish on their otherwise impressive resumes. Penn State is expected to travel over 25,000 strong for this game and while they certainly had aspirations of an undefeated season and a National Championship, enthusiasm runs high. While the experience is new for Penn State, the Rose Bowl is becoming a regular part of USC’s schedule. This will mark their fourth straight year in the granddaddy of them all. The Trojans absolutely crushed its last two Big Ten opponents, Michigan and Illinois,by a combined score of 81-35. Most would agree that Penn State is better than those two previous Big Ten entrants. While we can’t take too much from the results these two teams do share one common opponent in the sturdy Ohio State Buckeyes. Early in the season USC as a 10.5-point home favorite blitzed Ohio State 35-3. Later in the season the Nittany Lions won in Columbus 13-6 as a small road favorite. Combined Ohio State scored just nine points total in the two games. Defense should rule the field in this match-up as well. On the field, the intriguing and perhaps deciding matchup will be the tremendous USC defense against Penn State’s “Spread-HD” offense.On the season, USC allowed just 206 yards a game and an amazing 7.8 points per contest. In fact, they allowed just two teams to score double-digits and allowed only two passing touchdowns their last eight games. Need more impressive defensive ammo, how about this stat? In Pac-10 play, USC allowed opponents inside the red zone just 22 times. We can not project the Penn State rush offense to produce even close to its 212 rushing yards per game average. Therefore the onus falls to the passing game and more specifically quarterback Daryll Clark. Clearly, he and the rest of the Nittany Lions will have their hands full. For much of the season, Clark was arguably the best quarterback in the Big Ten. However he failed against better competition.He was pulled from the game and benched against Ohio State and in their lone loss of the season to Iowa he was dismal with a 9-of-23 performance. USC’s offense was certainly not as potent as past editions. The Trojans’ seemed bogged down at key moments with Mark Sanchez under center. Outside of contests against both Washington schools, USC averaged a modest 28.5 points per game in league play. Throughout the season were numerous times when the Trojans looked more than comfortable to rely on its defense and to play it conservative on offense. We expect that same approach to be on display here as well. Play it under the number.

ORANGE BOWL
Cincinnati -1.5 vs. Virginia Tech O/U 41.5
Thursday, January 1, 8:30 pm ET FOX - Miami
Recommendation: Cincinnati

For the Hokies, a trip to the BCS is nothing new. Having a virtual stranglehold on the ACC and Big East over the past ten seasons, Virginia Tech has made it to four BCS games. Unfortunately they have lost each appearance including last year to Kansas. For the Bearcats, they will be in uncharted waters as Brian Kelly’s team wrapped up their first ever BCS appearance and Big East title. The path for both teams was quite different this season. The Hokies somehow escaped the ACC despite sporting the conference’s worst offense and having a pair of quarterbacks who failed to qualify for the season ending passer-rating category. Of course it was expected that this team would struggle for points early on after dismissing their best running back and losing numerous talented receivers to the NFL. But the widely held belief that this team would improve down the stretch just didn’t turn out to be true. The Hokies barely managed to score 20 points per game in ACC play, scoring just 14 offensive touchdowns in eight games. The opposition has dared Virginia Tech to beat them in one-on-one coverage and more often than not they failed to do so. Fundamentally this will prove to be a tough matchup against a stellar Cincinnati secondary that sports a DYPP of just 5.10 according to our Accu-Stat numbers – one of the best in the country. Cincinnati’s own offense has managed to overcome numerous setbacks at the quarterback position. First, they learned Ben Mauk would be denied eligibility and then they lost Dustin Grutza just weeks into the season. His replacement, Tony Pike, went down with an injury a few weeks later. Still the Bearcats persevered, going on to beat West Virginia, Rutgers, Pitt and Louisville en route to a conference championship. All told, the trio of starters under center combined to throw for 3,300 yards and 25 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions. Kelly’s “Cat Attack” system has proven to be a thorn in many a defenses’ side and their multiple spread formations should be a handful for the Virginia Tech defense. In their last five bowl appearances the Hokies have lost four times and the defense has allowed nearly 15 points per game more than their season average in those contests. So for as good as Frank Beamer’s teams have been in the regular season they have largely failed to live up to the hype come postseason play. While this could be considered just another game for Virginia Tech, it is a big deal for Cincinnati. Brian Kelly is a great coach and his teams are on a 34-12 spread run dating back to his time at Central Michigan. Finding ways to win regardless of the situation or opponent is something Cincinnati does regularly. No reason to expect anything different here.

COTTON BOWL
Ole Miss +5.5 vs. Texas Tech O/U 70.5
Friday, January 2, 2 pm ET FOX - Dallas
Recommendation: Ole Miss

Key questions need to be asked about any team when they take on Texas Tech. First, how good is their secondary? Can their cornerbacks tackle in man coverage? Can they tackle in the open field? How good is the fifth or sixth cornerback in the rotation? Teams that lack secondary depth or that don’t tackle well in space downfield are in big trouble against the Red Raiders offense. We think Ole Miss can answer all of these questions just fine. Texas Tech is undersized on their defensive front, but they are relentless at the line of scrimmage; a hard nosed, quick and physical group of linemen. They did not fare well against the biggest, most physical offensive lines that they faced, but dominated against all other units. Ole Miss measures up here as well. Texas Tech’s offense has been contained against quality defenses in bowl games throughout the Mike Leach era. The extra time to prepare for this explosive passing game is most certainly a factor, as is the overall team speed on defense. We saw Alabama hold the Red Raiders to ten points in a Cotton Bowl win three years ago. Two years ago, Minnesota shut TTU down for three quarters, holding them to 14 points before collapsing in the fourth quarter. Last year, Virginia accomplished that same task as Texas Tech produced only two touchdowns on ten drives through the first three quarters. In that game another fourth quarter offensive explosion earned the Red Raiders a non-spread covering three-point win. Texas Tech finished the 2008 regular season with their only one loss coming at Oklahoma. Senior quarterback Graham Harrell is a proven winner and is blessed with plenty of weapons. Playmaker Michael Crabtree caught 93 passes, 18 of them going for touchdowns in this his sophomore season. Moreover, if he is shut down, eight other receivers caught at least 15 passes. Running backs Shannon Woods and Baron Batch kept opposing defenses honest and overall this offense scored at least 35 points in all 11 of their regular season victories. Meanwhile their normally suspect defense held every opponent but the Sooners to 33 points or less. Ole Miss won its last five games in impressive fashion, closing out the regular season with dominating performances against LSU and Mississippi State. They were the only team to beat Florida but we can’t help but look at Ole Miss and wonder “what if”? In each of the Rebels’ four losses, they committed at least three turnovers and lost the turnover battle in each instance. Overall, Ole Miss is a legitimate top 25 team. They didn’t lose a single contest by more than a touchdown and after struggling early on with interceptions and fumbles, quarterback Jevon Snead closed out the campaign with a 13-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio during their five-game winning streak. If Snead performs at that level, Ole Miss is going to score enough points to make this a ball game. We also add in the motivation factor as we can not expect Texas Tech to be motivated or excited by playing an 8-4 team in what is no longer a premier bowl? If Ole Miss can avoid falling behind early, the confidence gained will lead to a competitive game that stays within the number.

LIBERTY BOWL
Kentucky vs. East Carolina -1.5 O/U 42
Friday, January 2, 5 pm ESPN - Memphis, Tenn.
Recommendation: East Carolina

** NO WRITE - UP FOR THIS AS THEY HAD MISTAKENLY PUT THE SAME WRITE - UP AS THE BC / VANDY GAME

SUGAR BOWL
Utah vs. Alabama -10.5 O/U 45.5
Friday, January 2, 8 pm ET FOX - New Orleans
Recommendation: Alabama

It is a certainty that the Sugar Bowl representatives will be hoping for a more competitive result than last year’s game between the undefeated mid-major entrant Hawaii and its SEC opponent, Georgia.Utah fans are dreaming of an upset and it’s second undefeated season in five years. Meanwhile Alabama supporters are counting on the Crimson Tide to show up in what could be a flat spot after losing to Florida in the SEC Championship. It’s certainly conceivable that Alabama players lost their edge and focus after losing to the Gators in the SEC Championship. That loss ended their hopes for a national title and the first undefeated season since 1992. However, if we were choosing one coach in college football who would demand of his players one last effort and get it, that coach would be Nick Saban. With heavy personnel losses due to injury and suspension Saban routinely got the absolute best from an influx of talented but inexperienced freshman. We’ll call for more of that “Saban Magic” in this matchup. Motivation aside, the Crimson Tide’s overwhelming advantage in size, speed and strength will be on full display in New Orleans. It starts up front with perhaps the two most dominating lines in college football.Led by Antoine Caldwell, Mike Johnson and Andre Smith the offensive line paved the way for Glenn Coffee and freshman Mark Ingram to run for over 2,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. This imposing ground game made even the most difficult defenses wilt and alleviated much of the pressure from quarterback John Parker Wilson. Utah will need to send a minimum of nine into the box with their undersized defensive line in hopes of slowing down Alabama. That will leave them exposed in the secondary where freshman sensation Julio Jones can do real damage. The onus then falls on Utah quarterback Brian Johnson and the offense to keep pace. Although they averaged a rock solid 400+ yards and 37.5 ppg on the year a quick analysis of the schedule shows they were troubled by physically imposing defenses. Their faced only two opponents, TCU and New Mexico, who even came close to the kind of size and speed up front that the Tide will offer. Both teams held Utah to just 13 points. Neither of those two defenses had a player that was capable of eating up two or even three blockers at a time like Terrance “Mount” Cody. According to our Accu-Stat numbers, Alabama was the second best team in the country in stuffing the run and Utah just doesn’t have the firepower to exploit the Tide as a one dimensional passing attack. New Orleans is SEC country and there will no doubt be a sea of crimson and plenty fan support on full display in the Super Dome. We saw Hawaii crumble when faced toe-to-toe with an SEC power and while Utah is probably cut from a tougher cloth we expect a similar outcome. We project no more than 17 points for the Utes in this one and with the relative ease in which Alabama scored against bigger and better defenses it seems highly unlikely that Utah can compete.

INTERNATIONAL BOWL
Buffalo vs. UConn -4 O/U 51.5
Saturday, January 3, Noon ESPN2 - Toronto
Recommendation: UConn

The Big East has come out victorious in both attempts in International Bowl’s short existence and the stars seem to be aligning that way once again. While the Huskies aren’t quite as balanced and dynamic as Rutgers was in 2007, they feature a very similar and quite dominant ground game. The Scarlet Knights were able to take advantage of their imposing size up front and control the game on the ground against Ball State a year ago and we expect Connecticut to follow a similar game plan. UConn junior running back Donald Brown led the nation in rushing with over 1,800 yards. With 300+ carries nobody in football had as much sustained success from a yards per carry perspective. His 17 touchdowns put him in the top six in the country. He’s a workhorse back in every sense of the word and should find plenty of daylight against the Buffalo defense. Huskies quarterback Tyler Lorenzen suffered a broken foot midway through the campaign forcing a pair of inexperienced signal callers into action. To no great surprise the offense suffered. Lorenzen came back late in the season to post predictably rusty performances, the worst of which came in the finale against Pitt. But Lorenzen has plenty of experience and he proved last year to be more than capable as a game manager with a better than 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. At full strength and having a solid month to work out the kinks, we expect a solid performance. Buffalo started the campaign slowly losing five of its first seven games. It wasn’t the start Turner Gill had anticipated after returning senior signal caller Drew Willy and 17 other starters from a team that was ultra-competitive in 2007. However, the early struggles would be a distant memory by the end of the year as the Bulls rallied to win six of their last seven games including a memorable upset of previously undefeated Ball State in the MAC Championship game. Willy was phenomenal over the course of the year completing a high percentage of his passes while firing 25 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He, like Lorenzen, was aided by a strong ground game as James Starks rushed for 16 touchdowns.Defensively Buffalo is suspect and on that side of the ball, UConn holds a distinct advantage. Three of Buffalo’s wins over the back half of the season came in overtime. Four of the wins came despite being outgained by the opposition. And their MAC title came in large part because of five turnovers from Ball State. The streak brought plenty of attention from the media and Gill is all of a sudden one of the hottest coaching commodities on the market. Distractions will be abundant during the time off which may leave Buffalo less than fully focused on an imposing opponent. We’ll ride the better defense and strong ground game to get the win with the Huskies.

FIESTA BOWL
Ohio State vs. Texas -9.5 O/U 53.5
Monday, January 5, 8 pm ET FOX - Glendale, Ariz.
Recommendation: Under

Ohio State has enjoyed tremendous success at the Fiesta Bowl this decade, winning a National Title against Miami, knocking off Kansas State as a seven-point underdog and earning their most recent bowl win against Notre Dame following the 2005 season. But since the win over the Fighting Irish, to say that Ohio State has not fared well on the national stage in recent years is something of an understatement. The Buckeyes were embarrassed in each of the last two BCS title games, losing to Florida and LSU by a combined 41 points. It didn’t get any better in their toughest non-conference test this season, a 35-3 wipeout at USC. And the offense was once again nowhere to be found when they lost their chance at another outright Big Ten title in a 13-6 loss to Penn State in Columbus. Can head coach Jim Tressel repair his squad’s national reputation in this matchup? It certainly won’t be easy against a Texas Longhorns team that got shafted by the much-maligned BCS process. The Pokes were left out of the title picture despite the fact they were the only team in the country to beat Oklahoma. Fundamentally, the Buckeyes’ offense has been mediocre at best this season; ranking 37th in the country in “true rushing” yards per carry and 68th in the country in passing yards per attempt. Freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor finished the season with just 1,245 passing yards on 95 completions but did gain 553 yards on the ground. He was the second leading rusher behind only Beanie Wells and his 1,091 rushing yards. Leading receivers Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie produced less than 900 receiving yards between them, which means if Ohio State can’t run, they can’t win. The Texas defense ranks No. 2 in the country against the run, allowing only 73.6 yards per game. The Longhorns led the nation in sacks, and held seven opponents to 14 points or less. Probably the most shocking feat is that UT held every opponent under its season average. Considering the explosive offenses in the Big XII this year, those numbers are downright impressive. Ohio State is going to need a very creative game plan on offense if this game becomes a shootout. But while the offense was lethargic for much of the year, the Buckeyes defense was tremendous. Malcolm Jenkins was arguably the nation’s best cornerback, while fellow senior James Laurinaitis won the Butkus and Nagurski awards as the nation’s top defensive player last year. Only USC produced more than three touchdowns against the Buckeyes’ stop unit and after the embarrassment of poor defensive showings in each of the last two national title games, motivation is clearly on their side. We project Ohio State doing whatever it takes to avoid a track meet-type scenario. In all reality, it is their only chance to win. Texas will score but it isn’t going to come as easy and we feel confident in this game going Under the total.

GMAC BOWL
Tulsa vs. Ball State -2.5 O/U 77.5
Tuesday, January 6, 8 pm ET ESPN - Mobile, Ala.
Recommendation: Ball State

Ball State’s loss to Buffalo should not have come as an absolute shock. With nearly everyone surrounding the program talking about an undefeated season and a potential upgrade to the Bowl assignment,the focus just wasn’t there. Now we have to wonder about the motivation for the Cardinals after having their perfectseason end in the conference championship game. It was especially tough considering that Ball State out gained Buffalo by over 200 yards but allowed two defensive touchdowns. Tulsa comes in with a similar disappointment. After starting the season 8-0, the Golden Hurricane dropped two straight and then as a double-digit favorite in the C-USA Championship, ran into a defensive buzz saw for the second straight year. In the loss to ECU, Tulsa moved the ball but seven turnovers were too much to overcome. In fact in Tulsa’s three losses they coughed the ball up 15 times and had just two takeaways. It is a very important stat when you consider that in those three games, even with a 641-yard outburst by Houston, the Golden Hurricane produced more total yards. Last season Tulsa hung 67 in their bowl game win over a Bowling Green team that ranked as one of the worst teams in the MAC. That Falcons squad allowed 32 ppg while this Ball State team is quite capable ranking second at 18.6 ppg allowed. However, no one on the Cardinals’ schedule featured a prolific passing attack. The top four passing teams Ball State played (all three directional Michigan schools and Buffalo) posted modest numbers (266 ypg, 8 TDs, 5 INTs). The top five defensive teams in C-USA played in the East Division. Tulsa didn’t play two of those schools and in the games against the other three, Tulsa was held to 10 points below their season average. Tulsa faced eight teams that allowed 30 ppg or more and Ball State played seven teams that allowed at least 30 ppg. So in all reality the offensive stats and the quality of competition for these two teams are virtually even. Both teams have prolific quarterbacks and offenses that have had little trouble scoring against all competition.The only games in which these two teams faltered were when multiple turnovers occurred. The advantage in the game might be found with Ball State’s seemingly better defense. If we eliminate Buffalo’s two defensive touchdowns, no team scored more than 30 points on Ball State. Tulsa gave up 30 points or more in five games and played only four games decided by a touchdown or less. In the four games decided by seven or less, Tulsa was 2-2 and was outscored 123-122. In assuming both squads will march the ball up and down the field all it will take is a turnover in the red zone or a special teams play to gain the edge. Tulsa’s success has been against teams that allow them to do whatever they want with the football and we project that Ball State is better equipped to make that key stop or big defensive play. With that in mind, we’ll back the Cardinals laying the short price.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Oklahoma vs. Florida -3 O/U 72
Thursday, January 8, 8 pm ET FOX - Miami
Recommendation: Over

It’s a long wait for these teams and for college football fans until this game is played – 27 days from the time of this writing. However, the delay is not likely to stop the anticipated offensive fireworks from happening. The offenses for both teams will be by far the best units on the field in this title game. For Florida’s defense, the Oklahoma offense is light years above anything they’ve seen thus far. Georgia’s attack was talented and diverse at the skill positions but the depth of game breaking personnel and the play of their makeshift offensive line is nowhere near what Oklahoma possesses.In their game against the Bulldogs,the Gators defense yielded 398 total yards. We project OU’s run/pass balance and dominant offensive line to assist in moving the football at a consistent rate against the speed-oriented Florida defense. Oklahoma’s offensive front allowed only 11 sacks in 476 pass attempts while paving the way to 4.8 yards per carry with a stable of running backs. On the flip side, Florida’s defense is arguably the best unit that Oklahoma will have faced. Statistically, TCU is better and the Sooners chewed them up for 35 points and 436 total yards, but Florida has more speed and better talent. What the Gators don’t have is a top-tier defensive line. Florida’s pass rush could only muster one sack against the supremely physical Alabama front, and figures to be a non-factor against OU’s equally talented unit. Without a strong rush, Oklahoma, quarterback Sam Bradford figures to have success against the Gator’s young secondary. Manny Johnson, Juaquin Iglesias Ryan Broyles and Jermaine Grisham should all combine for plenty of yardage and scoring. Every fundamental advantage for the Oklahoma offense exists for the Florida offense as well. The Gators team speed with wide receivers Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy and Riley Cooper will most surely overwhelm Oklahoma’s defense. Oklahoma’s defense has faced a multitude of explosive spread-style offenses in Big XII play and all of them accumulated significant yardage and points. Even more dynamic, quarterback Tim Tebow adds a dimension that the slew of gunslingers from the Big XII doesn’t often utilize. Tebow will force Oklahoma to respect the option running attack in addition to the short, intermediate and vertical passing games. The Gators have the whole package and there is no way for Oklahoma to simulate the speed and accuracy with which Florida runs its multi-pronged offense. We’ll will also factor in to the offensive projections the dynamic return games led by Florida speedster Brandon James and Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles and DeMarco Murray. Good field position and short drives set up by the return games should help our cause. While this may seem like the ultimate public-square play considering the amazing 11-1 trend to the “Over” in Sooners’ games, it is hard to ignore the fundamental matchups. If we had to take a side, the Gators would get the nod but the value in our opinion, lies in the “Over” as all factors indicate that we’ll get touchdown scores on virtually every possession.

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

COLLEGE BOWLS

Saturday, December 20th
EAGLEBANK BOWL
Navy over Wake Forest by 3
Oh, great… this is just what we DON’T need. Another meaningless bowl
matchup – there are two new bowls this year, by the way – instead of a
legitimate college football playoff. You’d think as handicappers we’d
welcome a pair of additional wagering opportunities during the CFB postseason
but the truth is we prefer quality to quantity. Take a good look at the
participants in the seven bowl games we’re analyzing this week and toss in
the after-Christmas Motor City Bowl spectacular so you come up with a list
of 16 teams. Now check out who we’d be watching in the opening round
of a 16-team playoff, seeded according to the fi nal BCS rankings: (9) Boise
St vs (8) Penn State, (10) Ohio St vs (7) Texas Tech, (11) TCU vs (6) Utah
in a rematch, (12) Cincinnati vs (5) USC, (13) Oklahoma St vs (4) Alabama,
(14) Georgia Tech vs (3) Texas, (15) Georgia vs (2) Florida in a rematch, and
fi nally (16) BYU vs (1) Oklahoma. Instead we get a system where Texas – who
beat Oklahoma straight up on a neutral fi eld – is denied a chance to play
for the national crown along with the nation’s only two unbeaten squads,
Utah and Boise State. And in order to supply fodder for this year’s glut of 34
bowl games, no less than EIGHT teams will take the fi eld with a 6-6 record!
Gee, remember the good old days when teams got invited to a bowl as a
reward for a winning season? Yet somehow the BCS prevails and we shake
our heads helplessly at this same time every year, shackled by a system so
corrupt that Congress is actually envious. But enough BCS bashing; let’s turn
our attention to this pulse-pounder scheduled to take place in our nation’s
capital. When these two teams met on September 27th at Winston-Salem,
the game marked a turning point of sorts for both. Following Navy’s 24-17
win (its fi rst over a ranked foe in 23 years) as a 16-point road dog, the Middies
fi nished the season with a strong 5-2 SU run while the Deacs struggled to a
lackluster 4-4 effort. Yes, Wake Forest has reached a 3rd consecutive bowl
game for the fi rst time in school history but today’s venue is a huge step
down from its 2006 Orange Bowl appearance. Throw the obvious revenge
motive into the mix with a superb 13-4 SU and 11-5 ATS mark versus Military
teams (including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS if not at home) and Jim Grobe’s team
looks promising as a short favorite – until we factor in a few more bits of
information. Despite returning just four starters on offense and breaking in
a new head coach in Ken Niumatalolo (just one of 10 fi rst-year coaches to
earn a bowl berth in ’08), Navy led the nation in rushing, including 292 yards
in its earlier ambush of Wake. Ironically, Middie QB Kaipo-long-name left
the game at Winston-Salem with an injury but was back recently to guide his
crew to a 34-0 destruction of Army – and should be rarin’ to go today. In fact,
this will mark Navy’s 3rd game in 19 days so don’t expect to see much rust on
the Mids’ precision option offense. And even though the folks at Annapolis
initially resisted a rematch with Wake, the anchors aweigh crowd bought
up 30,000 of the 45,000 available seats at RFK Stadium. That crowd support
looks especially good since pre-New Year’s Day bowl dogs that outrush their
opponents are a solid 122-55-1 ATS since 1980, numbers that fi t perfectly
with Wake coach Grobe’s weak 6-12 ATS log as non-ACC chalk (1-6 versus a
foe off a win). Navy WILL win the rushing battle today and with Deacon QB
Riley Skinner unable to perform with any consistency all season, look for WF
to go MIA in DC today.

NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno St over Colorado St by 1
Jeez, the second bowl game on this year’s schedule and we’re already looking
at one of those 6-6 teams we just mentioned in Colorado State. Do the Rams
really deserve to be playing today? Probably not but they’re a helluva a lot
more excited about being here than the downtrodden Bulldogs. First-year
head coach Steve Fairchild rescued a CSU program that was in a state of
slow decay under legendary Sonny Lubick (Rams were just 7-17 SU the fi nal
two years of the Lubick era) and a victory today over Fresno State would
give the folks in Fort Collins their fi rst winning season since 2003. Fairchild’s
boys didn’t just back their way into this bowl appearance – they had to win
their fi nal two games of the season to become bowl eligible. The Rams also
came within few plays of shocking a pair of powerful opponents earlier in
the year, losing by just 6 points to TCU and by 3 points to BYU. But while
Colorado State’s fans are ecstatic about heading to Albuquerque (school has
sold almost its complete allotment of tickets), Fresno State and its backers
are less than thrilled by the prospect. And why not? Armed with 15 returning
starters led by SR QB Tom Brandstater, the Bulldogs were expected to make
some major noise in ’08 and compete for a BCS bowl slot. But those dreams
where shattered by a slew of injuries to key personnel and FSU fi nished the
season on a 2-3 SU slide, capped off with a demoralizing 61-10 destruction at
the hands of Boise State. Both teams own rotten rush defenses, each allowing
more than 5.0 YPR, and the putrid Bulldog stop unit forced just 12 turnovers
all year. The ATS archives suggests we fade Fresno since Hill’s squad was just
1-7 versus the number as chalk in ’08 and WAC Bowlers are a miserable 4-11
SU and ATS against an opponent off BB SU wins this decade. In this battle of
former WAC rivals (CSU jumped to the Mountain West conference a decade
ago), we’ll pick the Rams to grab the green by the slimmest of margins.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
South Florida over Memphis by 7
Here we go again… ANOTHER 6-6 team in a bowl game. But if you take
a look at the way the season unfolded for both of today’s foes, the .500
Tigers appear to have a lot more left in the tank than USF. Much like Fresno
State, South Florida returned a ton of starters and an outstanding QB in
Matt Grothe and was expected to contend for the Big East championship
and a BCS bowl appearance. But USF turned out to be as bullish as this
autumn’s stock market, bursting out of the stall with a 5-0 SU start before
plummeting to a horrifi c 2-5 fi nish. A home loss to Pittsburgh as double-digit
favorites began the Bulls’ sharp decline and USF hasn’t scored more than 20
points since beating woeful Syracuse in mid-October. Tommy West’s Tigers
took the exact opposite route to this game, losing their fi rst 3 games of the
season (2 of the losses were to bowlers Ole Miss and Rice) before restoring
the roar with a 6-3 fi nish, including a 4-0 ‘In The Stats’ performance in the
fi nal 4 games. The striped cats get further support from our database, which
informs us that pre-New Year’s Day dogs of 7 or more points that were
favored by over 10 points in their previous game are a money-making14-2-2
ATS. From a fan standpoint, South Florida couldn’t have asked for a better
destination: Tropicana Field is little more than a stone’s throw across Tampa
Bay from the Bulls’ campus home. But with USF being outstatted in 3 of
the season’s fi nal 4 games and its players decidedly disappointed at being
relegated to such a minor bowl, we can’t bring ourselves to lay doubles with
the ‘home’ team here. Like Johnny Rivers sang, “Long distance information,
give me Memphis, Tennessee...”

LAS VEGAS BOWL
Byu over Arizona by 1
When Rodgers and Hammerstein penned the lyrics to the famous Broadway
show tune, ‘Getting to Know You’ they had no idea it would eventually
become the bowl theme song for BYU. It’s now four-straight years in bowl
games for Cougar head coach Bronco Mendenhall and four-straight years
to the Las Vegas Bowl. That’s a good thing if you’re a Mormon considering
the fact that dogs in bowl games they won the previous year are 23-12
ATS, including 15-3 ATS versus an opponent that won 8 or less games last
year. When the season started BYU had realistic visions of a 12-0 campaign.
Why not? After all, they had won 11 games in back-to-back seasons and
were returning ten starters on offense, led by heralded QB Max Hall. A 6-0
start saw those dreams shattered in a disappointing 32-7 loss at TCU. They
managed to rally back with 4 consecutive wins before falling at Utah in
their season fi nale. Today they’ll take the fi eld against an Arizona squad
that is fi nally bowling for the fi rst time in ten years. It certainly doesn’t
hurt knowing that BYU is 13-1 ATS as a dog off a loss when squaring off
against a sub .700 opponent. Enter the Wildcats, fresh off a season-ending
win over arch-rival Arizona State. That victory snapped a two-game losing
skid at the hands of the Oregonians. We’re not at all enamored with the
fact that PAC 10 bowl teams are just 1-12 ATS as favorites against foes off a
loss, while managing to win only 5 of the 13 games in SU fashion. To make
matters worse, the quality of opposition was weak, at best, for Arizona as
its opponents posted a combined win percentage of just .421 this season.
Considering the Mountain West’s surprising dominance (6-1 SU) against a
PAC 10 conference that was down this year, it would come as no surprise
to us to see the Cougars win their 11th game for the 3rd straight year here
today. As the song goes, “But nicely, you are precisely, my cup of tea.”

Sunday, December 21st
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Troy over Southern Miss by 7
If you’ve been following us all year, you know we like teams who win the
“stat battles”. And if we follow our powerful database, as we always do,
then we’re clearly behind the men of Troy in this matchup. The Trojans are
20-2 ‘In the Stats’ over their last 22 games, including 11-1 this season, while
the Golden Eagles have won the stat war just 5 of their previous 34 tries
versus Bowlers over the last 6 years! In addition, Conference USA Bowlers
as a whole haven’t fared well when tackling an opponent off a SU win,
registering an anemic 10-22 ATS mark. Southern Miss, in particular, has
dropped the ball in post-season play, recording a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS mark
in their last 13 bowl efforts. With Sun Belt Bowl teams 3-0 SU and ATS off
BB SUATS wins, this year’s New Orleans Bowl has the makings of a ‘Big Easy’
Troy victory. We know we’ll get the stat win, but it’s the scoreboard that
brings home the bacon. We’ll get that, too. Play it and lay it as Larry Fedora,
another 1st year coach, goes down in bowl fl ames today.

Tuesday, December 23rd
POINSETTIA BOWL
Tcu over Boise St by 6
Undoubtedly the best matchup of the non-major Bowl games, why are these
two teams meeting on December 23rd while Buffalo-UConn and Tulsa-Ball
State are the lead-ins to the BCS Championship game? Is Bud Selig behind
this one? All kidding aside, this looks to be a classic confrontation between
offense versus defense. We’ve all witnessed the Boise State offense in that
incredible Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma but let’s not forget about the
TCU defense. The Horned Frogs, along with Texas, held Oklahoma to their
lowest point total of the season (35) and their 2nd lowest yardage mark
(436), just ONE more yard than the Longhorns allowed. In fact, the Horned
ones have held 9 opponents to season low yardage this year, the best in the
FBS. In terms of pedigree, both squads arrive with suitable credentials. The
Broncos are 14-3 SU versus Bowlers over the last three years while TCU is 7-2
SU and 6-2-1 ATS in Bowl appearances since 1998. They tell us good pitching
stops good hitting and defense wins championships. Who are we to argue?
Especially when our wise database tells us that undefeated Bowl dogs of less
than 10 points off an ATS win of more than 10 points are just 1-5 SU and ATS.
Gary Patterson’s 7-1 ATS mark with rest against non conference opponents
seals it. ‘D’ before ‘O’, that’s how we’ll go.

Wednesday, December 24th
HAWAII BOWL
Hawaii over Notre Dame by 1
When Santa brings us a nice new plasma television this year and we open
it early on Christmas Eve, it’s doubtful that the fi rst channel we turn on will
be ESPN for this 8:00 snoozer. Yes, we still prefer reruns of ‘Charlie Brown’s
Christmas’ over watching two teams with a combined 13-12 SU record. And
it doesn’t look like we’ll be opening the wallet for this one, either. While
Hawaii boasts a strong 21-3 SU mark in its last 24 home games – including
the last 3 as a home bowler averaging over 51 PPG – this year’s version minus
Colt Brennan is just 1-6 ‘In The Stats’. Although the Irish are one of our 2008
“Mission Teams” to receive a bowl invitation, their 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS mark
in bowl games since 1994 doesn’t exude much confi dence. The visitors have
outstatted 8 of their last 9 opponents but thanks to their propensity for
turnovers on the road this season (22), their statistical dominance hasn’t
translated into “W’s”. While Weis has been able to bully .500 or less foes to
the tune of 16-4 SU, he hasn’t fared well against winning opposition, posting
just a 12-17 SU and ATS mark in those contests. Hawaii’s Greg McMakin has
done a credible job in replacing June Jones but our trusty database informs
us that coaches in their fi rst year with a new team are just 8-21-1 ATS in Bowl
games off a SU loss or win of less than 3 points. Tough call. We’ll leave this
one to you but we’ll be watching Snoopy as he prepares for his annual battle
with the Red Baron.

Nelly’s Green Sheet

EAGLE BANK BOWL 10:00 AM

RFK Stadium - Washington D.C. ESPN Wake Fore st (-3) Navy (42)

Navy finished the season 8-4 despite starting the year 1-2 and the Midshipmen led the nation in rushing offense, averaging 298 yards per game. Navy has also covered in f our consecutive bowl games but coach Ken Niumatalolo was not the head coach for all but last year’s narrow loss. Wake Forest closed the season on a 2-5 ATS run and finishing the year just 7-5 was a bit of a disappointment considering that the Demon Deacons were in contention for a division title for much of the year. Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe has 2-1 record in bowl games, splitting the last two years. Wake Forest should have a substantial defensive edge in this match-up as the defense allowed just 300 yards per game with strong numbers against the run and there has been ample time to prepare for Navy’s unique offense. The Demon Deacons were a team that was banged up most of the season and could finally live up to expectations with a solid bowl effort as a few key players should be at full health. Wake Forest and Navy have both been two of the top teams in the nation in turnover margin and Navy enters this game incredibly off back-to-back shutout wins. Those results may have watered down some very average defensive numbers for the Midshipmen for most of the season. Motivation might be a bit of a question for Wake Forest as this is not a marquee bowl game but playing Navy in a relatively nearby venue should keep the focus there. Wake Forest owns the more veteran team and coaching staff and Navy may be a bit overvalued based on recent competitive bowl efforts . Despite lacking an elite team, the ACC closed the
season as the strongest rated conference. WAKE 24-17

RATING 3: WAKE FOREST (-3) RATING 1: ‘UNDER 42’

NEW MEXICO BOWL 1:30 PM

University Stadium – Albuquerque, New Mexico ESPN Fresno State (-3) Colorado State (60)

The Bulldogs managed to make a return bowl trip but finishing 7-5 was well below preseason expectations. The Bulldogs only won twice ATS all season long, at one point failing to cover in nine straight games. The Bulldogs allowed more yards than they gained this season and had one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. On the year Fresno State allowed over 30 points per game on average. Coach Pat Hill owns a 4-4 bowl record for Fresno State including winning four of the last five games since ’02. It has to be considered a successful season for first-year Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild as the Rams finished 6-6 after going just 3-9 last year. The Rams got to .500 despite allowing 408 yards per game and nearly 30 points per game, numbers considerably greater than the offense produced. This game is being played on the New Mexico’s home field a venue that Colorado State played at last season so there should some familiarity for many players. The Mountain West rated considerably stronger than the WAC this season and Colorado State managed to go 4-4 in league play, playing competitive games against two of the top teams in the conference. Fresno State is likely not thrilled to be in this game and injuries have greatly weakened the Bulldogs defense. Colorado State should play tough in this game. CSU 31-27

RATING 1: COLORADO STATE (+3) RATING 1: ‘UNDER 60’

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL 3:30 PM

Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, Florida ESPN2 South Florida (-12½) Memphis (52)

The Bulls would have to be on the short list of the most disappointing teams in the nation as this appeared to be a team that could win the Big East. Statistically South Florida has the numbers to appear as a high quality team as they allow just 291 yards per game while gaining close to 400 yards per game but turnovers and inconsistent play have been problems. This will be a favorable venue for South Florida but the enthusiasm could be low for this bowl game given how poorly the team has played in the last several games, losing four of the past five to finish 2-5 in Big East play. Memphis started the season 0-3 but rallied to win six of the final nine games to make the postseason. Like USF, Memphis has severely out-gained opponents this season but it has not always translated into wins. Both of these teams lost badly in bowl games last season but Memphis may be more motivated to deliver a redeeming effort this season. South Florida should own significant edges on defense but the Bulls have been unreliable in the favorite role while Memphis can be a dangerous underdog with an offense that can score points. Memphis dealt with significant injuries this season and given the rest and recovery period prior to this game the Tigers could have a stronger team at this point in the year than the unit they played with most of the season. South Florida likely continues to underachieve. MEMPHIS 31-27

RATING 4: MEMPHIS (+12½) RATING 2: ‘OVER 52’

LAS VEGAS BOWL 7:00 PM

Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, Nevada ESPN Arizona (-3) Byu (62)

In his fifth season at Arizona, Coach Mike Stoops finally has the Wildcats playing in a bowl game. Arizona finished 7-5 and had a winning Pac-10 record led by a defense that allowed only 302 yards per game. Arizona also scored 37 points per game this season, although the numbers are a bit misleading with a few blowouts padding the statistics. After going 11-2 last season and winning this bowl game each of the past two years BYU is back with a 10-2 mark and ready to face another Pac-10 team. Earlier this season BYU beat Washington and UCLA and last season BYU beat Arizona in Provo, 20-7 so these teams will be familiar with one another. Arizona has a higher scoring average than BYU despite the Cougars having a far more productive offense in terms of yardage. Arizona was just 1-4 ATS on the season away from home and BYU will be much more comfortable in this venue, having played in Las Vegas twice last year. The Arizona defense is allowing considerably more yardage per game but BYU is giving up fewer yards per rush and actually has the superior scoring defense. BYU will not be intimidated by the bowl game or a Pac-10 opponent and Arizona has not played in a post-season game since 1998. Although BYU had higher expectations going into the season this is not a game that will be taken lightlywhile Arizona may simply be happy to be there. BYU 31-28

RATING 1: BYU (+3) RATING 2: ‘UNDER 62’

NEW ORLEANS BOWL 7:15 PM

Louisiana Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana ESPN Troy (-4) Southern Mississippi (55)

Many questioned the decision by Southern Miss to go another direction and part with longtime coach Jeff Bower but in his first season new coach Larry Fedora has the Golden Eagles back in a bowl game. Last year Southern Miss actually finished the regular season 7-5 so at 6-6 it has actually been a small step back and the Eagles needed four straight wins to close out the season to get there. The Southern Miss offense has been productive, posting 434 yards per game with a solid run/pass balance. The defense stepped up late in the year with just 35 points allowed in the final four games and turnovers have gone the Eagles way most of the season with a strong margin. Most expected last year’s Sun Belt champion Florida Atlantic to again take the conference but Troy dominated most Sun Belt games and returns to a bowl game after missing out last year despite an 8-4 record. 8-4 was good enough to make the postseason this year even though the Trojans were dealt a major blow with an injury to the original starting QB Jamie Hampton. Levi Brown has filled in admirably as the offense has averaged 34 points per game since he took over. Troy has a solid edge defensively in this match-up and the strength of schedule edge for Southern Miss is not that significant as Troy played several strong non-conference games and Conference USA had several marginal teams this year. Troy dominated Rice at the end of the 2006 season in this bowl game and a similar result may be in order this year as the Trojans have been impressive. TROY 38-28

RATING 4: TROY (-4) RATING 3: ‘OVER 55’

POINSETTIA BOWL 7:00 PM

Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California ESPN Tcu (-2½) Boise State (46)

Many of the early bowl games often lack intrigue but this year the Poinsettia Bowl has a gem with two of the top non-BCS conference teams in the nation. Boise State is undefeated but was left of the BCS roster as Utah also went undefeated. Utah barely beat TCU this season so this will be an opportunity to make a statement for the Broncos. Boise State has incredibly dominant numbers this season, out-scoring opponents by an average of over 27 points per game with only two games all season being decided by single-digits. TCU faced a much tougher schedule and the two teams that beat the Horned Frogs are playing in BCS bowls. Although Boise State has excellent numbers on defense, TCU has incredible numbers on defense with the top ranked run defense in the nation while allowing fewer than eleven points per game and only 215 yards per game. TCU is not known for offense but the Frogs averaged 35 points per game and often the offense is set up in favorable situations from the defense. Everyone remembers Boise State’s big win over Oklahoma two seasons ago but the Broncos have lost outright in three of the last four bowl games. TCU meanwhile is 5-0 ATS in the last five bowl games including a close loss to Boise State in the 2003 Forth Worth Bowl. At first glance it appears odd to see Boise State as an underdog with a perfect record but TCU has been that impressive. The Frogs have been a fantastic favorite with an 11-3 ATS mark in the last 14 games but Boise State has also excelled in the rare instances that they have played as underdogs . Although both teams are considered among the best of non-BCS conference teams neither has many impressive wins. Boise State won at Oregon but the rest of the schedule was light and TCU lost its two toughest games. TCU 28-21

RATING 3: TCU (-2½) RATING 1: ‘OVER 49’

HAWAII BOWL 7:00 PM

Aloha Stadium – Honolulu, Hawaii ESPN HAWAII (-1½) Notre Dame (48)

Increased scrutiny continues to pile on the Notre Dame program and coaching staff but a reluctant vote of confidence was given to Coach Charlie Weis despite considerable late season speculation. Weis has never won a bowl games and the Irish have now lost nine consecutive bowl games, including losing ATS in each of the past seven. Hosting this game did not look like a possibility early in the season in Coac h McMackin’s first year but the Warriors won six of eight down the stretch before a narrow loss in the finale to become bowl eligible. Hawaii has won each of the last three times they have played in this home bowl game but the Warriors lost twice at home this season and played a very weak schedule. These teams feature nearly identical numbers on offense with both teams partial to the passing game but defensively the Irish have stronger overall numbers. Hawaii allows more sacks than just about every team in the nation with a sound game plan the Irish should be able to create some big plays on defense. The last three wins for Hawaii came against teams that have a combined 7-30 record and Hawaii also had a win against a FCS team early in the year so there is not much substance on the resume. Notre Dame has solid numbers against the pass this season and five of the six losses came against major conference bowl teams. Notre Dame scored 23 or more points nine times this season so the offense is capable despite the negative press. NOTRE DAME 28-24

RATING 2: NOTRE DAME (+1½) RATING 1: ‘OVER 48’

MOTOR CITY BOWL 6:30 PM

Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan ESPN Central Michigan (-7) Florida Atlantic (62½)

The Chippewas were unable to defend the MAC title and the final two games of the season were ugly losses for Central Michigan. Central Michigan allowed 424 yards per game and surrendered nearly 31 points per game on the season. Central Michigan can score with a high powered passing offense that averages 292 yards per game but the defense took a huge step back this season. Central Michigan has played in the Motor City Bowl each of the past two seasons, losing to Purdue last season and beating the Sun Belt’s Middle Tennessee State two years ago. Florida Atlantic received its second consecutive bowl bid despite falling short of expectations this season through a tough schedule. The Owls won the New Orleans Bowl last season and Coach Schnellenberger has never lost a bowl game in his career. Statistically the Owls have been a little stronger defensively but not quite as productive on offense compared with Central Michigan. After a 1-5 start to the season where Florida Atlantic played four road games in five weeks the Owls closed the year winning five of six and the offense put up huge numbers late in the season. FAU is playing better ball heading into this game and the location edge should not be a huge advantage for Central Michigan even though the Chippewas have experience at Ford Field. FAU is a veteran team that has proven itself in big spots before. FLORIDA ATLANTIC 38-31 RATING 2:

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+7) RATING 2: ‘OVER 62½’

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL 12:00 PM

Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina ESPN North Carolina (PK) West Virginia (44)

Both teams had successful but somewhat underwhelming seasons as West Virginia fell well short of lofty preseason expectations and North Carolina faded after a hot start had the Tar Heels in the ACC driver’s seat. In his second year at UNC Butch Davis has turned around the program with the first winning season since ‘01 and the first bowl trip since ’04. In what looked like an easy path to through the Big East, West Virginia stumbled to two conference losses and two non-conference losses although two losses came in OT. North Carolina will have a favorable location for this match-up and West Virginia has not been a strong bowl team in recent history sans last year’s big win over Oklahoma. The Mountaineers feature one of the top rushing offenses in the nation and although QB Pat White did not live up to Heisman-type expectations he is still a dynamic playmaker. West Virginia’s defense is allowing 16 points per game and the Mountaineers have slightly superior numbers on both sides of the ball but North Carolina did play through a tougher schedule. Injuries derailed some momentum for the Tar Heels but North Carolina beat six bowl teams this year and three of four losses came by three points or less. West Virginia had success under Coach Stewart in last year’s Fiesta Bowl but this is a much different situation and motivation will not be nearly the same as Stewart’s job was in limbo at that time. Although North Carolina did not play its best ball down the stretch the overall body of work is strong for the Tar Heels and West Virginia may still be overvalued based on what was supposed to be for the Mountaineers. West Virginia has not risen up to play well in big games this year. UNC 17-14RATING 1:

NORTH CAROLINA (PK) RATING 4: ‘UNDER 44’

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL 3:30 PM

Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, Florida ESPN Florida State (-5) Wisconsin (52½)

The Seminoles were embarrassed by Florida in its last game of the season on a national stage and this will be a key game for seasoned Coach Bowden to finish the season strong. FSU finished the season with great numbers on defense allowing only 291 yards per game and according the Sagarin ratings the Seminoles were the best team in the best conference in the nation. Wisconsin quickly climbed high into the rankings early in the season but a four-game collapse to start the Big Ten season has led to a very disappointing year for the Badgers. In a season that began with Rose Bowl hopes this is not the bowl game the Badgers expected to be in and enthusiasm around the program is as low as it has been in several years. Wisconsin’s defense allowed at least 20 points in eight of the last nine games and the offense has really struggled in games where the running game has not been effective. Turnovers have been a problem for Wisconsin and QB Dustin Sherer has had limited playing time in big games after starting the season as the back-up. The Badgers have been a lousy ATS team and Wisconsin’s best two wins are pretty unimpressive with narrow wins over Fresno State and Minnesota as the only wins over bowl eligible programs. Florida State beat five bowl teams this season through a tough ACC schedule and Florida State has a great history of success in bowl games. Wisconsin has lost three of its last five bowl games and this venue will feature an obvious location advantage for the Seminoles. FSU 31-13 RATING 5:

FLORIDA STATE (-5) RATING 2: ‘UNDER 52½’

EMERALD BOWL 7:00 PM

AT&T Park – San Francisco, California ESPN California (-7) Miami, FL (49½)

The Bears will have a big location advantage in this bowl games and California has been a very successful bowl team in recent years, winning S/U in seven of the past nine games with many high scoring results. Cal did not quite live up to expectations this season with four losses but the Bears were a great ATS team, covering in nine games. After a five-game win streak midseason the Hurricanes appeared back on the national map but Miami lost the final two games of the season as the defense uncharacteristically allowed 79 points in those two games. The Bears did not match the huge offensive production of past recent seasons under Coach Tedford but the defense was pretty strong, allowing just 314 yards per game and also producing a great deal of turnovers. Over the last six games Cal allowed an average of just 18 points per game and with Miami ’s offense struggling to find consistent gains on the ground or in the air this should be a lower scoring game. Both teams are in the top 25 in the nation in terms of sacks so both QBs should be under significant pressure and neither team should have a strong enough running game to carry the way. If you take away blowout wins over Washington State and Washington the scoring numbers drop considerably for the Bears and the big games for California have generally been low scoring defensive games. The conditions in San Francisco in late December are typically windy and cool so this could be a bowl game that is more impacted by weather than many of the other locations and a lower scoring game should be expected between two strong defenses and two offenses that never quite got going to its full potential this season. CALIFORNIA 24-13

RATING 3: CALIFORNIA (-7) RATING 5: ‘UNDER 49½’

INDEPENDENCE BOWL 7:00 PM ESPN

Northern Illinois (-2) Louisiana Tech (47)

The Independence Bowl has some great history and in the last four years this game has been decided by a touchdown or less featuring major conference teams such as Alabama, Oklahoma, Colorado, Missouri, and South Carolina. With due respect to Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech for making the postseason, bowl organizers and the Shreveport chamber of commerce have to greet this match-up with dread as neither the Big 12 or the SEC could fill this spot. Northern Illinois has had a remarkable season after just two wins in 2007 and with three losses by four points or less the Huskies nearly had an even stronger season. Louisiana Tech makes a short trip to play its first bowl game since 2001 and the Bulldogs are headed in the right direction with substantial improvement in each of the first two years for head coach Derek Dooley. Both teams run the ball effectively although the numbers give Northern Illinois a substantial edge on defense. Louisiana Tech faced a tougher schedule with several high powered offenses in the WAC and a tough non-conference schedule that hurt the statistics. Louisiana Tech typically enjoys a very strong home field edge and that advantage should carry over to some degree in this neutral but convenient venue for the Bulldogs. Northern Illinois has an experienced team but the Huskies closed the season losing three of the final four games while Louisiana Tech won four of the final five and nearly beat Nevada in the final game of the season. The Bulldogs should make the most of this opportunity. LA TECH 28-24RATING 2:

LOUISIANA TECH (+2) RATING 3: ‘OVER 47’

GOLDSHEET FIRST 14 COLLEGE BOWLS

EAGLEBANK BOWL

NAVY (8-4) vs. WAKE FOREST (7-5)

Saturday, December 20 Day at Washington, DC (P.A.T.)

Wake Forest 20 - Navy 13--Regular-season meetings have never been foolproof indicators of results in bowl rematches. Nonetheless, a quick review of 16½-point dog Navy's surprising 24-17 win at Winston-Salem Sept. 27 is probably in order. Normally-efficient Wake Forest was its own worst enemy that day, committing an uncharacteristic six TOs, including a career-worst 4 picks by QB Riley Skinner. The Deacs were in a 17-0 hole before the end of the first half, and could not contain the Mid option, in particular bruising FB Eric Kettani, who rumbled for 175 YR. Navy eventually held on despite losing QB Kaipo-Noa Keahaku-Enhada to a hamstring injury before halftime.

We don't, however, envision the dynamics being the same for the rematch. By simply keeping better care of the ball, Wake is unlikely to dig itself another hole and allow Navy to rigidly adhere to its chain-moving option strategy. Granted, the apparent improvement of the Mid "D" (off back-to-back shutouts) is a noteworthy recent development, but Skinner & Co. have been dealing with better stop units all season in the ACC. Skinner rarely self-destructed as he did Sept. 27, tossing only 3 more picks in the other 11 games. A healthier TB Josh Adams and emerging RS frosh RB Brandon Pendergrass should aid the Deacs' ability to establish their own infantry. And though we have respect for Navy's trademark spunk, we don't envision shrewd Wake HC Jim Grobe slipping twice in the same year vs. the Mids.

(08-Navy 24-W. FOR. 17...W.16-14 N.59/292 W.31/43 W.26/40/4/270 N.3/4/0/51 N.2 W.2)

(07-W. For. 44-NAVY 24...W.28-23 N.67/328 W.44/196 W.22/28/0/213 N.4/12/0/39 W.0 N.3)

(08-Navy +16' 24-17; 07-Wake Forest -3 44-24...SR: Wake Forest 6-3)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Navy 11 7-4 6-5 27 22 275 65 36-27-5 135 205 32-16-14 +16 2.6 15.5
Wake Forest 12 7-5 5-7 20 18 112 189 27-11-13 116 184 25-9-15 +16 1.7 12.0

NEW MEXICO BOWL

FRESNO STATE (7-5) vs. COLORADO STATE (6-6)

Saturday, December 20 Day at Albuquerque, NM (Grass Field)

Colorado State 31- Fresno State 26--Kudos to CSU's 1st-year mentor Steve Fairchild for restoring respectability to a program that had slipped under Sonny Lubick. Balanced. pro-style Ram attack features 6-5 sr. QB Farris (62%, 2677 YP, 17 TDs, 12 ints.), hammering RB G. Johnson III (1191 YR, 4.7 ypc, 10 TDs, 27 catches) & solid trio of targets in WRs Greer (62 catches), Morton (48, 10 TDs) & 6-6 sr. TE Sperry (37, 5 TDs). Yielding defense (30 ppg, 119th in sacks!) had cluster DB injuries, but that unit will be boosted with the return of difference-making Ss Kubiak & Pagnotta.

FSU's more ground-oriented offense (29 ppg), directed by 6-5 sr. QB Tom Brandstater (60%, 17 TDs, 11 ints.) missed injured big-play RB Matthews (603 YR, 6 TDs in 7 games) down the stretch, as Harding (702 YR) & Miller (699 YR, 6.5 ypc) lacked that extra gear. Vanilla, seldom-blitzing defense (30 ppg) had big trouble vs. the rush (197 ypg, 5.3 ypc) after injury to run-stuffing DT Monga (he won't be back), while soft 2ndary had nation-low 4 ints. (only 3 in '07).

So, in clash between old WAC rivals, prefer healthier, combative CSU (nearly upset TCU & BYU!) vs. disappointed, error-prone Bulldogs (109th in TO margin), who never fully shook off bitter 13-10 home loss vs. Wisconsin Sept. 13, when RS frosh PK Goessling shanked 3 FGs. Coach Pat Hill, who interviewed for the Washington job but withdrew his name, is "bowling" for 9th time in L10Ys (dog has covered all 8 of his bowls; Fresno 0-2 vs. MWC!). But Fairchild no neophyte, having helped Lubick prepare for 5 bowls as his assistant.

Morever, the MWC has the best winning bowl % L3Ys (9-4 SU), and the Bulldogs are 4-20 as chalk since their 50-42 USC defeat in late 2005. Plus, judging from shrinking, increasingly-disenchanted fan base, doubt usually-large Red Wave contingent makes trek to Land of Enchantment.

(06-Colorado State +13' 35-23...SR: Colorado State 6-5)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Fresno St. 12 7-5 2-10 29 30 177 207 44-19-17 197 196 43-21-18 -11 -.2 18.1
Colorado St. 11 5-6 6-5 24 31 133 241 33-14-16 193 224 44-18-20 +2 -2.0 13.3

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

MEMPHIS (6-6) vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (7-5)

Saturday, Dec. 20 Night at St. Petersburg, FL (FieldTurf)

*SOUTH FLORIDA 32 - Memphis 28--Although this "newbie" bowl game at the domed home of baseball's Tampa Bay Rays is only a short drive from campus of South Florida, seriously doubt disappointed Bulls fans will show up in droves after USF dropped 5 of its last 7 games to fall out of the top 10 all the way down to this minor postseason bid.

While the superior speed & athleticism of their defense might allow the Bulls to eventually prevail over Memphis, believe tenacious Tigers (9-2 last 11 as double-digit dog) stand excellent chance of staying inside roomy pointspread. No USF RB has even as many as 400 YR this season, and that very spotty infantry support found star QB Matt Grothe (only 3 TDP vs. 11 ints. in last 5 games!) forcing too many throws into coverage down the stretch. True, Tiger star RB Curtis Steele (1175 YR & 7 TDs on 5.7 ypc) might be stymied by the hard-hitting Bull front 7 permitting fewer than 100 ypg on ground. But with top QB Arkelon Hall now fully recovered from earlier thumb injury and in possession of a deep, veteran stable of WRs (UM's top 5 are all upperclassmen with at least 28 catches in 2008), the Tigers should mount enough of an aerial attack to take this one the distance.

(DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Memphis 11 5-6 5-6 28 27 199 231 39-21-18 149 209 39-18-16 -3 -2.3 20.8
SO. FLORIDA 11 6-5 4-7 24 22 147 239 31-18-11 101 208 28-11-15 -4 -2.0 13.0

LAS VEGAS BOWL

BYU (10-2) vs. ARIZONA (7-5)

Saturday, December 20 Night at Las Vegas, NV (FieldTurf)

*Byu 30 - Arizona 24--These programs aren't unfamiliar with one another, having met in early-season clashes during both '06 (a 16-13 Arizona win) and last year (BYU prevailing 20-7). Moreover, there are Mike Leach/Texas Tech roots in both offenses, as respective coordinators Robert Anae (Cougars) and Sonny Dykes (Wildcats) arrived at their current positions via Lubbock. But those familiarity aspects stand in contrast to a variety of other elements that appear to favor the Provo bunch, such as BYU making its fourth straight Las Vegas Bowl visit, while Arizona is making its first bowl appearance in ten years. Psychology could also favor the Cougs, licking their wounds after a 48-24 beating administered by blood rival Utah, while the Cats are off a satisfying 31-10 win over hated Arizona State. And remember that Mountain West entries won a surprising 6 of 7 against the Pac-10 this season.

Mostly, however, we slightly prefer the BYU spread offense to that of the Wildcats, who despite uncovering a nice infantry component (slashing frosh RB Keola Antolin, a Las Vegas product), lacked a consistent "vertical" threat this season, with QB Willie Tuitama reluctant to stretch defenses downfield. The Cougs move a bit smoother with QB Max Hall (70% and 34 TDP) and a veteran receiving corps led by WR Austin Collie (95 catches) & TE Dennis Pitta (78 receptions). And Hall is unlikely to self-destruct two games in a row after his uncharacteristic 5-pick effort vs. the Utes.

(07-BYU 20-Arizona 7...B.22-11 B.32/104 A.19/32 B.26/39/0/288 A.28/38/0/223 B.1 A.0)

(07-BYU -3' 20-7...SR: Arizona 11-9-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Byu 11 9-2 3-8 35 22 140 293 50-15-32 143 207 31-16-14 +4 3.8 17.3
Arizona 12 7-5 7-5 37 21 164 237 58-31-22 132 170 29-16-11 +6 3.3 14.6

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

TROY (8-4) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (6-6)

Sunday, December 21 Night at New Orleans, LA (Dome; FieldTurf)

*Troy 30 - Southern Miss 21--We're not hard-pressed to find reasons to support underdog Southern Miss in this matchup. After wobbling through a 5-game losing streak, the Eagles peaked down the stretch, winning & covering their final 4 reg.-season tilts to get back to .500 for rookie head coach Larry Fedora. The rebuilt USM defense finally jelled, permitting just 35 total points over those last 4 games. And the creative Fedora (former o.c. at Oklahoma State) has a multi-dimensional QB in RS frosh Austin Davis (12 TDP, only 2 ints. in last 6 games; 331 YR during last 5), as well as top-notch weapons such as star jr. RB Damion Fletcher, all-conf. sr. TE Shawn Nelson, and terrific true frosh WR DeAndre Brown (12 TDC), a 6-6 mega blue-chipper who was recruited by the likes of Florida & LSU.Still, prefer to lay fair price with a money-making Troy side that's brought home the bacon in 20 of its last 28 games on the line! Trojans not lacking for confidence after TY's highly-competitive losses at Ohio State and LSU, with the latter needing 30 fourth-quarter points to stave off the scrappy visitor's upset bid. Troy's potent spread attack is in the capable hands of quick-trigger Richmond transfer QB Levi Brown (63% for 1711 yards & 14 TDs in last 7 games), and the tough-minded Trojan defense has held 15 of its last 20 foes to 28 points or fewer.

(DNP...SR: Southern Miss 6-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Troy 11 7-4 7-3 30 22 163 230 42-18-21 146 192 31-15-16 +3 2.1 16.3
Southern Miss 12 6-6 7-5 31 24 196 238 49-28-21 145 224 36-12-24 +13 1.3 18.9

POINSETTIA BOWL

TCU (10-2) vs. BOISE STATE (12-0)

Tuesday, December 23 Night at San Diego, CA (Grass Field)

*Boise State 22 - Tcu 19--In truth, both of these entries might be BCS-worthy, as many gridiron aficionados believe TCU (and not Utah) was the best Mountain West squad in '08, while many WAC sources suggest Boise might be even better than its last unbeaten squad from '06, one that made it to the BCS and upset Oklahoma in a memorable Fiesta Bowl classic.

While most pundits are quick to note (and correctly so) that the Broncos have not faced a defense as voracious as TCU's 2nd-ranked (only 215 ypg!) platoon, Boise's high-pressure stop unit is formidable in its own right, allowing only 12.3 ppg (ranks 3rd nationally). With the Broncos' hard-hitting safeties Jeron Johnson, Ellis Powers, and George Iloka consistently stuffing the run and setting a physical tone, we're not sure the Frogs' bread-and-butter ground game will prove the necessary diversion to QB Andy Dalton's preferred play-action tactics. And if any OL can slow TCU's sackmeister DE Jerry Hughes, it's a Boise forward wall that allowed QB Kellen Moore to be sacked only 11 times all year. With plenty of playmakers on offense, and hellbent to erase the memory of last year's sleepwalking Hawaii Bowl loss vs. East Carolina (HC Petersen vowed to never go as easy on his troops in bowl preparation again), the Broncos are capable of solving the Frogs' defensive riddle and finishing unbeaten once again.

(DNP...SR: Boise State 1-0)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Tcu 11 9-2 8-3 32 11 206 201 45-30-13 53 169 16-8-7 +9 7.0 14.5
Boise State 11 11-0 7-3 39 13 157 289 55-23-27 104 198 18-6-8 +8 12.2 17.7

HAWAII BOWL

NOTRE DAME (6-6) vs. HAWAII (7-6)

Wednesday, December 24 Day at Honolulu, HI (FieldTurf)

HAWAII 27 - Notre Dame 19--It's not a stretch to say that we found out more about these respective entries during their losing efforts this season. Whereas Notre Dame surrendered meekly vs. almost every quality foe on its slate, and embarrassed itself when allowing lowly Syracuse to beat it at South Bend in November, Hawaii was impressive in keeping potent Boise State within earshot (on the blue carpet, no less) in October, and had BCS-bound Cincinnati on the ropes in the recent regular-season finale at Aloha Stadium. And unlike the Irish, the Warriors improved as '08 progressed, especially after 1st-year HC Greg McMackin's QB roulette finally landed on juco Greg Alexander, who was efficient (12 TDP/4 picks) if not spectacular piloting the Red Gun after assuming the starting role at midseason.

All of that is more than we can say about Notre Dame and HC Charlie Weis, whose job status proved an extra distraction after the regular season concluded. And even though Weis has been granted a stay of execution, that doesn't portend a sudden transformation of the sluggish Irish attack, which too often abandoned the run, subjecting QB Jimmy Clausen to intense pressure, and was its own worst enemy with 26 TOs. With plenty of established playmakers (including LBs Elimimian & Leonard, & DE Veikune), Hawaii's aggressive "D" (which forced 30 TOs) could wreak havoc. The Warriors aren't as potent as recent editions, but with the home-field edge, they might not have to be to beat the uninspiring Irish.

(DNP...SR: Notre Dame 2-0)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Notre Dame 12 6-6 6-6 23 22 113 231 33-10-20 143 185 32-18-12 -5 -.5 12.6
HAWAII 12 6-6 7-5 24 28 97 241 37-16-18 162 201 40-15-21 -6 -1.1 16.8

MOTOR CITY BOWL

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (6-6) vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4)

Friday, December 26 Night at Detroit, MI (Dome; FieldTurf)

*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 37 - Florida Atlantic 35--Central Michigan is visiting the Motor City Bowl for the third straight season, and this will be the Chippewas' 5th game at Ford Field in just over 25 months (they covered in 2 MAC championships and 2 bowl games). Losses in the last 2 games this season (to Ball St. & E. Mich.) cost the Chips a third straight trip to the MAC title game. While we definitely respect CMU attack, led by QB Dan LeFevour (11th in the nation in total offense), the Chippewas have flaws on defense. CMU yielded 38 ppg in its last 4, and the Chip stop unit ranks 118th against the pass and 104th overall. Part of the reason the pass defense gives up so many yards is the lack of a solid pass rush; CMU ranks 98th in sacks this season.

Howard Schnellenberger's Florida Atlantic side had bowl success last season, ripping Memphis 44-27 in the New Orleans Bowl. This season's edition had a choppy start, but QB Rusty Smith had a turnaround at midseason that propelled the Owls to a 5-1 second half. Smith threw 9 ints. and just 5 TD passes in FAU's 1-5 start, but the lights went on and he tossed 18 TDPs and just 5 ints. in the second half of the season (5-1 SU). The Owls protect Smith well, ranking 8th in sacks allowed, thanks to a veteran OL and a fairly solid ground game led by Charles Pierre (103 ypg rushing in last 6 games). Defensively, FAU, while not statistically impressive, possesses four first-team all-Sun Belt players.

Smith should trade scores with LeFevour and keep it close all night. Looks like a high-scoring affair, with two high-quality QBs against permissive defenses.

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Florida Atlantic 12 6-6 6-5 25 29 141 251 39-15-23 184 219 46-23-21 -9 -1.8 18.9
C. MICHIGAN 11 7-4 5-4 30 32 131 300 42-18-23 144 293 47-23-22 +3 -.8 15.1

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL

WEST VIRGINIA (8-4) vs. NORTH CAROLINA (8-4)

Saturday, December 27 Day at Charlotte, NC (Grass Field)

NORTH CAROLINA 23 - West Virginia 17--History might reveal 2008 to be a watershed year for both of these programs. Under first-year HC Bill Stewart, the Mountaineers scratched out 8 wins during the regular season, but looked somewhat mediocre when compared with the elite squads former mentor Rich Rodriguez fielded in his last few campaigns. On the other hand, Carolina is clearly a team on the rise in just its second season under respected veteran mentor Butch Davis. True, the Tar Heels enter this game with the same 8-4 record as West Virginia, but it's the first time since 2001 that UNC has managed more than 6 victories.

While the Mountaineers own the most dynamic weapon on the field in record-setting star sr. QB Pat White, their offense (just 24 ppg) hasn't been nearly as productive as the dazzling WV attacks of recent seasons. And the Heels have a few things going for them besides a coaching edge. How about a staunchly partisan crowd in Charlotte cheering on their speedy, ball-hawking defense (27 takeaways)? And don't forget that Carolina has two battle-tested QBs, productive soph RB Shaun Draughn (801 YR), plus the game's top WR in jr. Hakeem Nicks (60 catches for 1005 yards & 9 TDs). (DNP...SR: N. Car. 1-0)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
West Virginia 11 7-4 4-7 22 15 223 129 28-14-14 135 184 20-11-8 +10 4.5 11.8
NO. CAROLINA 11 7-4 6-5 27 20 122 190 36-15-16 140 215 25-12-11 +6 6.4 10.7

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

WISCONSIN (7-5) vs. FLORIDA STATE (8-4)

Saturday, December 27 Night at Orlando, FL (Grass Field)

*FLORIDA STATE 24 - Wisconsin 23--Two bowl-tested teams meet for the first time. Wisconsin is going to a school-record 7th straight bowl, while Florida State is riding the longest bowl appearance streak in the country (29).

Bobby Bowden's Seminoles arrive in Orlando with the 13th-ranked defense in the nation. Meanwhile, FSU soph QB Christian Ponder hasn't impressed with his accuracy, throwing 15 interceptions and just 7 TDs in his career facing TGS-rated teams. RBs Antone Smith (753 YR, 15 TDs) and Jermaine Thomas (478 YR) proved an effective 1-2 combination.

After a shaky first game, Wisconsin QB Dustin Sherer produced 186 ypg passing in the Badgers' last 6 games, helping balance the 14th-ranked rushing attack. The run game is led by jr. P.J. Hill (3802 career rushing yards, 44 TDs), RS frosh John Clay (845 YR, 9 rush TDs '08) and a typically huge Wisconsin OL.

FSU has had some success in bowl games recently, sporting a 3-0-1 spread mark the last 4 years, but Wisconsin is 3-1 in the same span, including a pair of wins here in Orlando (Capital One Bowls). The Badger fans love getting out of Wisconsin at this time of year, and generally flock to warm-weather bowl locations like migrating birds.

This looks like a ground-oriented, slug-it-out type of game, with the value in the "under" and in taking the points.

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Wisconsin 11 6-5 5-6 28 24 215 188 36-27-9 120 198 32-18-12 -4 -1.3 10.1
FLORIDA ST. 10 6-4 5-5 28 24 168 166 29-18-8 144 173 27-12-13 -4 1.0 6.5

EMERALD BOWL

MIAMI-FLORIDA (7-5) vs. CALIFORNIA (8-4)

Saturday, December 27 Night at San Francisco, CA (Grass Field)

*CALIFORNIA 34 - Miami-Florida 21--In 2007, head coach Randy Shannon's rookie year, the Hurricanes suffered through their first losing season since 1997 (and just the second sub-.500 campaign in nearly three decades for the storied Miami program!). So credit the enthusiastic Shannon, a former Cane LB, for quickly getting his squad back into bowl action, even if it's only this relatively minor postseason bid. Miami is now oozing young talent on both sides of the ball and seems destined for bigger & better things in the near future.

However, the still-learning 2008 Hurricanes might have drawn more than they can handle in well-coached, veteran Cal bunch that covered 5 of its final 6 reg.-season games. Brainy Bear mentor Jeff Tedford will have some surprises in store for the frequently over-pursuing Miami defenders, and mercurial Cal RBs Jahvid Best & Shane Vereen (combined for 2533 yards from scrimmage & 19 TDs) can "house the rock" from anywhere on the field with just a sliver of daylight. Sure, maligned Bear QBs soph Kevin Riley & sr. Nate Longshore aren't the most consistent duo, but they're certainly no more erratic than the Hurricanes' RS frosh Robert Marve (9 TDP vs. 13 ints.) & true frosh Jacory Harris. And the nearby Bay Area venue can only help Cal's cause. (DNP...SR: Miami-Fla 2-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Miami-Florida 11 6-5 4-7 26 26 122 197 33-12-19 153 178 35-19-13 -9 .4 8.2
CALIFORNIA 12 8-4 9-3 33 20 184 196 51-20-24 123 193 31-16-10 12 4.3 11.1

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)

Sunday, December 28 Night at Shreveport, LA (FieldTurf)

*LOUISIANA TECH 26 - Northern Illinois 21--Jerry Kill's first year at NIU has to be considered a success, as the Huskies bounced back from a 2-10 record to return to a bowl for the 3rd time in 5 years. NIU's sporadic offense was a problem, as the Huskies were shut out by Navy in the season finale, and scored just 14 ppg in October & November games against Tennessee, Miami-Ohio, Bowling Green and Ball State. It's doubtful NIU QB Chandler Harnish will suddenly "flip the switch" and successfully attack Louisiana Tech's weak pass defense after Harnish threw for just 137 ypg in the Huskies' last 7 games upon his return from injury. The NIU defense looks good on paper, ranking 16th in scoring defense, but further examination reveals Huskies did well facing bad offensive teams and "minor league" opposition, but failed to slow good offensive teams.

La Tech's jr. RB Daniel Porter came on in the second half of the season, churning for 115 ypg (6.4 ypc) in the last 7 games. That production boosted the Bulldogs to a 4-1 SU mark down the stretch and their first bowl bid since 2001. Louisiana Tech ranks 116th against the pass, but not sure NIU has the receivers or QB to exploit that weakness. Improving Bulldog soph QB Ross ******* has thrown just 2 ints. in his last 144 pass attempts, and is coming off a 258-yard, 2-TD performance against Nevada.

Shreveport isn't a dream destination for NIU fans, as ticket sales were extremely slow despite personal pleas from Kill. It's doubtful the Huskies will sell their allotment of 12,000 tickets. Conversely, a return to the bowl picture and the convenient location sparked sharp interest on the Louisiana Tech side, with reportedly brisk sales starting as soon as the game was announced.

(DNP...SR: Louisiana Tech 5-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Northern Ill. 11 5-6 6-5 23 19 163 170 30-19-10 150 166 26-12-13 +3 2.0 18.1
LA. TECH 11 6-5 5-6 24 25 190 153 33-19-8 104 271 36-12-23 +8 .7 16.5

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL

NORTH CAROLINA STATE (6-6) vs. RUTGERS (7-5)

Monday, December 29 Day at Birmingham, AL (FieldTurf)

North Carolina State 31 - Rutgers 30--No team has been a better bankroll buddy over last couple months than these two. Rutgers is 8-0 against the line in its last 8 games, while N.C. State has covered 7 straight (and 9 of its previous 10)!

The Scarlet Knights' impressive stretch drive notwithstanding, very eager to grab substantial points with resilient young Wolfpack squad that needed to win its final 4 reg.-season games just to get to .500 and become bowl eligible. Sure, locked-in Rutgers sr. QB Mike Teel (20 TDP in last 5 outings!) is bound to fire a few strikes to NFL-caliber 6-4 jr. WR Kenny Britt. But there's every reason to believe Pack's precocious RS frosh triggerman Russell Wilson (16 TDP & 0 ints. his last 8 games!) will be able to trade scores, especially with injured sr. DE Jamaal Westerman (team-high 6 sacks) out of commission for the Knights. Plus, the stiffening State stop unit did hold each of its last 6 foes to 28 points or fewer.

Wolfpack HC Tom O'Brien knows Rutgers well from his time in Big East at Boston College, where he once won (and covered) six straight bowl appearances! And O'Brien has bagged outright victories in 8 of his last 12 as a dog at State. Upset alert.

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
No. Carolina St. 11 5-6 9-2 23 26 131 196 30-11-16 147 248 33-16-16 +9 .5 6.4
Rutgers 11 6-5 8-3 28 20 132 272 41-16-23 149 195 25-14-9 -3 2.7 12.0

ALAMO BOWL

NORTHWESTERN (9-3) vs. MISSOURI (9-4)

Monday, December 29 Night at San Antonio, TX (Dome; FieldTurf)

*Missouri 38 - Northwestern 20--Despite the double-digit pointspread, there are an inordinate number of reasons to support Missouri. Prolific, Texas-native, sr. QB Chase Daniel (74%, 37 TDs, 15 ints.). Dynamic WR/KR Jeremy Maclin (95 recs., 12 TDC; 250 YR & 2 TDR; 1 TD on a KOR). Mackey Award-winning TE Chase Coffman (83 recs. & 10 TDs). Tough-to-tackle WR Tommy Saunders (66 recs., 7 TDs). Underrated RB Derrick Washington (992 YR & 17 TDs). And reliable PK Jeff Wolfert (17 of 23). MU (-3½) routed Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Arkansas 38-7 in LY's Cotton Bowl. In fact, the Tigers have scored exactly 38 points in their bowl games each of the L3Ys!

Yes, the Mizzou defense didn't fully meet coaches' expectations TY, finishing 99th in the nation in total yards. But the Tigers faced a plethora big-time passers in the Big XII. Meanwhile, this was far from a vintage year in the Big Ten, helping Northwestern's quality defense to shine with 19.3 ppg allowed, finish 13th with 33 sacks, and permit only 33.9% conversions on third down. However, QB Daniel and Mizzou appear a tough matchup, allowing only 15 sacks in 13 games and converting 54.4%. Wildcat QB C.J. Bacher is a heady senior, but he was frequently off target TY (59.7%, 14 TDs, 14 ints.), with NW -5 in turnovers.

Lastly, 29 Tigers are from Texas, where HC Pinkel recruits heavily. And the perfect conditions indoors only figure to accentuate Mizzou's speed and matchup edges on offense. (DNP...SR: Even 4-4)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Northwestern 11 8-3 6-5 24 20 148 213 31-12-17 132 219 27-14-11 -5 1.9 13.4
Missouri 12 8-4 5-7 42 30 147 341 66-25-36 133 288 47-19-26 -4 2.7 7.1

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK:

COLORADO ST

Has there been a more-formful pointspread performer in bowl
games over the last decade than Fresno State? That’s doubtful,
because the Bulldogs have made themselves pretty easy to peg in
the postseason. Simply, the best course of action has been to take
the underdog in Fresno’s bowl games since HC Pat Hill took over
the program in 1997. In Hill’s eight bowl games, the “short” has
covered on each occasion (five times when the Bulldogs have been
receiving points, three times when they’ve been laying points). And
for the December 20 New Mexico Bowl at Albuquerque, Fresno will
be laying points, which is good news for opponent Colorado
State. Bowl favorite or not, the Bulldogs have been having enough
trouble vs. the number lately, dropping 9 of their last 10 spread
decisions this season, and losing 8 of 9 overall vs. the number as
chalk. Going back a bit further, Fresno’s overall spread record is
a decidedly subpar 10-28-1 its last 39 games on the board since late
in the ‘05 campaign. As for the Rams, they at least closed the season
on an uptick, winning and covering their last two.

HAWAII
Bowl games and Notre Dame simply haven’t gone well together
in recent years, at least as far as the Fighting Irish are concerned.
And we see no reason for that pattern to change when Notre Dame
makes the long trek to Honolulu for a Christmas Eve date at Aloha
Stadium to face host Hawaii in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. How
tough has it been for the Irish in recent bowls? Try losses in their
last nine postseason appearances dating back to the ‘94 Cotton
Bowl, and no covers in their last seven bowl games. And Notre
Dame hasn’t been faring very well against the number in any
category lately for beleaguered HC Charlie Weis, standing a poor
15-25-1 vs. the number its last 41 games on the board. Meanwhile,
the Warriors managed to turn their season around after a slow start,
covering 7 of their last 9 on the board in ‘08, including 4 of their last
5 at Aloha Stadium. Hawaii has also won and covered convincingly
in its last two appearances (2004 & ‘06) in the home-field bowl game.

LOUISIANA TECH
We’re not quite sure why Northern Illinois is favored in the
December 28 Independence Bowl at Shreveport. Nearby Louisiana
Tech, the Huskies’ bowl foe, has played home/neutral games
at Independence Stadium before, and will be making the short trip
from Ruston for the game. And even if Shreveport isn’t the Bulldogs’
own on-campus Joe Aillet Stadium, it’s close enough for us to
consider La Tech a home/neutral dog for this game. Which means
we ought to pay serious attention to the fact the Bulldogs have
covered their last six chances as a home underdog. And there is
certainly no reason whatsoever to fear NIU, which not only dropped
4 of its last 5 games vs. the number this season, but historically has
been an underachiever as chalk (Huskies just 4-13 vs. number last
17 when favored).

NC STATE
In a perfect bowl world, Rutgers and North
Carolina State wouldu be playing different opponents. The Scarlet
Knights and Wolfpack closed the regular season as two of the
hottest pointspread teams in the land, and in a sense it’s a shame
that they’ve been pitted against one another in the December 29
Papajohns.com Bowl at Birmingham’s venerable Legion Field. But
that’s no reason to shy away from supporting NC State, which has
several tech factors stacked in its favor. Specifically, the extended
pointspread success of HC Tom O’Brien, especially as an underdog.
O’Brien’s recent teams with the Wolfpack and Boston College have
covered 13 of their last 16 and 22 of their last 30 when receiving
points, qualifying NC State as a featured College Coach as
Underdog bowl recommendation. O’Brien is also an accomplished
bowl coach, covering his last six postseason appearances while
coaching BC. And O'Brien's Wolfpack has been growling vs. the
number since midway through the ‘07 campaign, covering 14 of their
last 18 on the board. Plus. don't forget that bowl underdogs (such as
NCS) receiving 7 points or more have offered tremendous value over
the years, including a sterling 52-24 spread mark this decade!

RICE
It’s not quite home, but it’s within the city limits of Houston. Which
is good enough for explosive Rice as it prepares to face MAC
representative Western Michigan in the Texas Bowl December 30
at futuristic Reliant Stadium. In the city of Houston this season, the
Owls are a spotless 6-0 straight up, and a solid 5-1 vs. the line, the
same as Rice’s spread mark as a favorite this year. Overall, the
Owls were a solid 8-4 vs. the number in ‘08, and now stand 11-5
vs. the points their last 16 games on the board. As for the Broncos,
they’ve covered just 5 of 13 games away from their home Waldo
Stadium in Kalamazoo since a year ago.

SOUTH CAROLINA
There’s been no question that SEC teams have performed
better than those from any other conference in recent bowl action.
Over the past two seasons, SEC “bowlers” stand a noteworthy 12-
5 vs. the number. And trying to uphold the honor of the league in
Tampa’s Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day will be combative South
Carolina, an underdog against Big Ten rep Iowa. That underdog
role should appeal to the Gamecocks, a featured bowl Power
Underdog recommendation and 8-4-1 vs. the line their last 13 as
the “short” away from Columbia since 2005, when HC Steve
Spurrier arrived on the scene. As for the Hawkeyes, consider their
recent subpar performances as a favorite, just 7-15-2 vs. the
number their last 24 as chalk.

OLE MISS
There are underdogs...and there are live underdogs.
And we suggest that dangerous Ole Miss qualifies in the latter
category as it prepares for a January 2 date at the Cotton Bowl in
Dallas against Texas Tech. Certainly, the Rebels were “live” when
getting points from the oddsmakers this season, covering all four of
their chances as an underdog. Such dog success is nothing new
for HC Houston Nutt, whose Arkansas and Ole Miss teams have now
covered their last six as the “short”. Overall, the Rebels were a solid
8-2 vs. the number in 2008, including covers away from Oxford at
Florida (also a straight-up win for Ole Miss!) and at Alabama, which
almost became another victim of Houston Nutt’s squad. As for the
Red Raiders, note they haven’t covered their last three bowl games,
and despite their flash are only 20-24 vs. the number their last 44
games on the board.

BOWL TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!

NAVY vs. WAKE FOREST (Eagle Bank)...Teams split the last two
seasons, with Navy scoring 24-17 upset win TY. Deacs 4-6 as chalk
TY, 1-2 as chalk away from home. Navy covered its last 4 away from
Annapolis TY, now 22-8 vs. number last 30 away from home. Mids
have also covered their last 4 bowls. Tech edge-Navy, based on
team trends.

FRESNO STATE at COLORADO STATE (New Mexico)...FSU
covered only 1 of its last 10 TY and was just 1-8 as chalk in ‘08.
Bulldogs just 10-28-1 vs. number last 39 on board overall. In Pat Hill’s
8 bowl games, the underdog has covered each time (FSU 5-0 as dog,
0-3 as chalk!). Tech edge-CSU, based on Fresno spread woes
and dog bowl trend.

MEMPHIS vs. SO. FLORIDA (St. Petersburg)...Memphis 10-4 vs.
number last 14 as double-digit dog. USF only 3-7 vs. line as chalk TY,
3-8 last 11 as favorite. Tech edge-Memphis, based on team trends.
BYU vs. ARIZONA (Las Vegas)...Teams split meetings in ‘06-07,
although BYU covered both. Cougs no covers last 4 vs. non-MWC
teams away from Provo. Cougs also no covers last 2 as dog. Cats
11-5 vs. number last 16 on board. Tech edge-slight to Arizona,
based on team trends.

TROY vs. SOUTHERN MISS (New Orleans)...Troy quite an
accomplished spread performer, now 20-7-1 vs. number last 28 on
board. Trojans also 15-6 vs. line 21 away from home, and 13-5-1 last
19 as chalk. USM closed with a flourish in ‘08, winning and covering
its last 4, and has covered its last 2 bowls. This is also Eagles’ 7th
straight bowl appearance! Tech edge-slight to Troy, based on
team trends.

NOTRE DAME at HAWAII (Sheraton Hawaii)...Irish only 1-4 vs.
line last 5 TY, and Weis just 15-25-1 vs. number last 41 on board. Irish
no covers last 7 bowls, and no SU wins last 9 bowls (last SU win was
Jan. 1 ‘94 Cotton Bowl, 24-21 over Texas A&M with Holtz in charge!).
Hawaii covered 7 of last 9 on board TY, and has won and covered
last two appearances in Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (‘04 & ‘06). Tech
edge-Hawaii, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC VS. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Motor
City)...Third straight Motor City for CMU, 1-1 SU and 2-0 vs. line in
those games. Chips only 1-3-1 as chalk TY, and 0-2-1 as chalk away
from Mt. Pleasant. Howard won and covered bowl LY and is 5-0 SU
and. vs line in bowls with Miami, Lvl, and FAU! Tech edge-FAU,
based on team and Schnellenberger bowl trends.

WEST VIRGINIA vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Meineke Car
Care)...WVU only 4-7 vs. line TY. Mounties also just 2-4 vs. line last
6 bowl games. Tech edge-UNC, based on WVU negatives.
WISCONSIN vs. FLORIDA STATE (Champs Sports)...Badgers
only 3-8 vs. line away from Madison since LY, and just 3-6 as dog
since LY (2-2 TY). Meanwhile, Bowden 3-0-1 vs. line his last 4 bowl
games. Tech edge-FSU, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA vs. CAL (Emerald)...Cal a rather remarkable 7-
0 SU and vs. line in Bay Area TY, 9-3 vs. line overall in ‘08. Shannon
just 8-15 vs. line since LY (4-7 TY) and failed to cover last 3 on board
in ‘08, and just 3-4 as dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Cal, based
on recent trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. LA TECH (Independence)...This was
supposed to be an SEC vs. Big XII matchup! Shreveport is sort of a
home game for LT, which is 6-0 vs. points its last 6 as home (Ruston)
dog. NIU no covers in 4 of its last 5 TY but has covered 5 of its last
6 away from DeKalb. Yet Huskies just 2-4 as chalk TY, 4-13 last 17
in role. Tech edge-LT, based on team trends.

NC STATE vs. RUTGERS (Papajohns.com)...Both very hot! NCS
on 7-game spread win streak, and has won its last 4 outright as a dog!
Wolfpack on 14-4 spread run since mid ‘07 and O’Brien now 13-3 vs.
number last 16 as dog. O’Brien teams at BC & NCS now 22-8 their
last 30 as dog! Rutgers did end season on uptick with 8 straight
covers, and Schiano has covered last 3 years in bowls. O’Brien,
however, won and covered his last 6 bowl appearances with BC!
Tech edge-NCS, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. MISSOURI (Alamo)...Mizzou covered only
3 of last 10 TY and only 1 of last 5 away from home. Pinkel, however,
has covered his last 3 bowl games. NU was 4-2 vs. line as dog TY
and covered all 3 tries as a dog away from Evanston in ‘08. Tech
edge-Northwestern, based on team trends.

NEVADA vs. MARYLAND (Roady’s Humanitarian)...If Nevada
favored note 21-11 chalk mark under Ault (3-3 TY) since returning
as coach in ‘04. Pack has covered last two trips to blue carpet
although it lost both of those games close (21-20 vs. Miami-Fla. in ‘06
Humanitarian, and 69-67 in multiple OTs vs. Boise State LY). Ralph
just 3-9 vs. spread his last 12 away from Byrd Stadium (1-4 TY). Tech
edge-Nevada, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. RICE (Texas)...Rice 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs.
line within city limits of Houston TY! Owls also 5-1 as chalk in ‘08. Rice
still a solid 8-4 vs. spread TY, and 11-5 vs. number last 16 on board
since late ‘07. WMU only 5-7-1 vs. number away from Kalamazoo
since LY. Tech edge-Rice, based on team trends.

OREGON vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Holiday)...Bellotti 1-2 vs. line
as dog TY but solid 15-8 vs. line in role since ‘03. Underdog team has
covered in 8 of Oregon’s last 9 bowl games. Gundy, however, has
won and covered last 2 bowl games. OSU dropped last 3 spread
decisions TY after covering first 8 on board. OSU also 8-1 last 9 as
chalk. Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE vs. HOUSTON (Armed Forces)...Rematch of AFA’s
31-28 win Sept. 13 in a game that was moved to SMU’s stadium in
Dallas. Now these teams get to play in Fort Worth! Falcs failed to cover
last 2 as dog TY after covering first 3 as short. Calhoun 16-7 vs. line
since taking over at AFA LY. Houston 0-6 vs. line away from
Robertson Stadium TY, now no covers last 9 away from home (and
no covers last 6 as chalk away from home)! Tech edge-AFA,
based on team trends.

PITT vs. OREGON STATE (Sun)...Mike Riley 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line
in bowls with OSU since ‘03. Riley also 22-9-1 vs. spread last 32 as chalk.
‘Stache, however, is 9-3 vs. line last 12 as dog, and 8-3 vs. line away
last 2 years. Tech edge-slight to Pitt, based on dog trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. VANDERBILT (Music City)...Dores were
6-2 as dog TY but covered just 1 of last 5 on board in ‘08. Bobby
Johnson 19-8 vs. number last 27 as dog away from Vanderbilt
Stadium. First Dore bowl game since 1982 All-American Bowl in
Birmingham, a 36-28 loss vs. Air Force! BC just 1-8 vs. number last
9 laying points away from home (1-2 TY), and Eagles no covers last 4
postseason games (0-2 in ACC title, 0-2 in bowls since ‘05) despite
winning SU last 8 bowls. Tech edge-Vandy, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS (Insight)...KU only 3-3 as chalk in ‘08
after 12-1 mark previous 13 in role. Mangino has won and covered
last 2 bowls, and 7-1 vs. number last 8 vs. non-Big XII. During Glen
Mason era, Gophers’ last 4 bowl games were all decided by 4 or
fewer. Minnesota lost last 4 games SU this season and covered just
1 of last 4 on board after hot start. Gophers were 4-1 as dog TY,
however. Tech edge-slight to Kansas, based on team trends.

LSU vs. GEORGIA TECH (Chick fil-A)...LSU just 2-9 vs. line TY
and just 4-16-2 against spread last 22 on board. Les Miles, however,
has won and covered bowls the last 3 years with Tigers, and LSU
0-1 in rare dog role the past two years. Paul Johnson covered his
last 3 bowls with Navy (remember, he didn’t coach LY’s Navy bowl
game) and GT solid 8-2 vs. line in ‘08. His Navy & GT teams are 44-
23-1 vs. line last 68 games on board! Tech edge-GT, based on
team trends.

IOWA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Outback)...Spurrier 8-4-1 vs. line
as dog away from Columbia since arriving at SC in ‘05. Iowa 3-3 as
chalk TY but only 7-15-2 last 24 in role. Tech edge-South Carolina,
based on team trends.

CLEMSON vs. NEBRASKA (Gator)...Rematch of fabled ‘82 Orange
Bowl, when Clemson with Homer Jordan at QB knocked off
Nebraska 22-15 to claim ‘81 national title! Dabo won last 3 and covered
4 of last 5 on board TY, although note Tigers didn’t cover their last 3
bowls with Tommy Bowden as coach. Bo Pelini 1-2 as dog TY but
did cover 3 of 4 as visitor. Huskers just 3-8 their last 11 as dog dating
to the Callahan years. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, based on
recent Dabo trends.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. GEORGIA (Capital One)...Spartans 0-3 as
dog TY after 5-0-1 mark in role last season. But Georgia failed to cover
its last 4 and 7 of its last 8 on board TY, also no covers last 6 as chalk
in ‘08. Richt 5-1 SU, 4-2 vs. line last 6 bowls. Tech edge-slight to
MSU, based on team trends.

PENN STATE vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Rose)...Shades 23-11 vs. line
in bowl games during long career. Pete 5-1 SU and vs. line last 6 bowls,
but SC only 1-4 its last 5 laying points away from Coliseum TY, and 9-
13 last 22 in role. Tech edge-Penn State, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Orange)...Beamer 4-2 vs. line
as dog away from Blacksburg TY, also 10-3 in role since ‘04. Beamer
also 23-9 vs. spread last 32 away from Blacksburg. Dog team is 5-
1 vs. number last 6 Hokie bowl games. These teams met as recently
as ‘06, with VT winning 29-13 at Blacksburg but failing to cover huge
number. Bearcats no covers last 2 bowl games (both with Kelly as
coach) and Cincy only 3-4 vs. line away from home TY. Tech edge-
Beamer, based on team trends.

OLE MISS vs. TEXAS TECH (Cotton)...Leach no covers last 3
bowls (won last 2 by 3 points each, and lost the previous game by
exactly 3 points as well), and he’s 3-5 vs. line in bowls since taking
over TT in 2000. Leach only 20-24 overall vs. line since ‘05. Rebs
covered last 4 TY and were 8-2 vs. number for Houston Nutt, including
4-0 as dog. Nutt’s teams have covered their last 6 as dog overall!
Tech edge-Ole Miss, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA vs. KENTUCKY (Liberty)...ECU began to heat
up at the end of the season, winning and covering last two after
dropping 8 of previous 9 vs. number. Skip, however, still 17-10 vs.
line away from Greenville since ‘05. Rich Brooks only 1 cover in
previous bowl games (two years ago in Music City), but UK is 6-1-
1 vs. line last 8 against non-SEC opposition. Tech edge-slight to
UK, based on team trends.

UTAH vs. ALABAMA (Sugar)...Utah has won its last 7 bowl
games (5-2 vs. line in those), with its last bowl loss coming in the 1996
Copper Bowl vs. Wisconsin. Kyle Whittingham 3-0 SU in bowls, and
his Utes are 9-4 vs. line as dog since ‘05. Nick 9-4 vs. line TY and
had covered 5 straight in '08 prior to SEC title game loss vs. Florida.
Saban only 3-5 vs. line in career in bowls, however. Tech edge-
Utah, based on team trends.

BUFFALO vs. UCONN (International)...Buffalo 7-0 vs. line as dog
this season! Bulls have now covered their last 9 as dog for Turner Gill!
All of those 9 on the road as well, giving Bulls 9 straight covers away
from home. UConn only 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board, 2-7 last 9 away
from the Rentsch. This year’s 4-7 Huskies spread mark was also their
worst under Edsall. Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE vs. TEXAS (Fiesta)...These programs are familiar
with one another after hookups in 2005 & ‘06, games in which the
(short-priced) road underdog won both times. Mack has won his last
4 bowl games and covered as chalk at Holiday LY vs. Arizona State,
but he’s still just 2-6 as bowl chalk with Horns. Texas 5-1 vs. line last
6 away from Austin, however. Tressel no wins or covers last 2 in
bowls (both in BCS title games) after covering previous 4 bowls.
Buckeyes did cover last 4 on road TY and are 16-5 vs. spread last
21 away from Columbus. OSU 0-2 in rare dog roles the past two
years. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on team trends.

BALL STATE vs. TULSA (GMAC)...Both cooled a bit at the end of
the season (Tulsa 1-4 vs. line last 5, Ball State 1-2-1 last 4). Note Todd
Graham teams 10-5 vs. line as dog the last 3 years (but no record as short
TY with Tulsa). Tech edge-slight to Tulsa, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. OKLAHOMA (BCS Championship)...Seldom have
we seen two title game teams also dominate vs. the spread as these
two (Florida 11-1 vs. number, OU 10-2 vs. points). But Bob Stoops
has struggled in bowls lately, losing and failing to cover 4 of last 5.
Combined with no covers last 4 vs. Texas and he is no longer “Big
Game Bob” these days. Urban Meyer 4-1 SU and vs. line in bowls,
and Gators now 21-5 vs. spread last 26 on board. Tech edge-
Florida, based on team trends.

Logical Approach

As we have done for many seasons we will have selections on both Sides and Totals in every Bowl game, using a five tiered scale to indicate the strength of selections. Here's how the Star ratings relate to the strength of the recommendations/opinions:

Rating Strength of Selection Units or % of Bankroll

5 Star Best of the Best - Our Strongest Recommendation 3.0 Units - 5.0% of BR
4 Star A Best Bet - A Strong Recommendation 2.0 Units - 3.0% of BR
3 Star A Solid Opinion - Worth a Regular Play 1.0 Unit - 2.0% of BR
2 Star A Slight Opinion 0.5 Unit - 1.0% of BR
1 Star A Lean - We'll Just Sit and Watch ? ? ?

Eagle Bank Bowl - Washington, DC - Saturday, December 20, 2008

This is one of two Bowl rematches of games played during the regular season. On September 27 Navy, 2-2 at the time, traveled to Wake Forest (3-0). Wake was a 17 point home favorite but was upset by Navy 24-17. Navy outgained Wake 343-313. Navy's offense was strongly rush oriented (292 yards) while Wake relied predominantly on the pass 270 yards). Navy never trailed, leading 17-0 at the half and 24-10 in the fourth quarter. The Midshipmen are in their sixth straight Bowl game and first under coach Ken Niumatalolo as Navy continued their solid play following the departure of ex-coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech after last season. Wake is in their third straight Bowl game. Navy enjoys a solid home regional edge as Annapolis is just a short 37 miles away whereas Wake's fans must travel over 300 to show their support. Clearly Wake played their best football early in the season whereas Navy was much more consistent over the course of the season, winning their final 2 games and 7 of their last 9. Overall, the ACC was very ordinary this season with no team standing out or challenging on the national scene. Historically Wake Forest has fared well when an underdog but not as well when favored. Navy's offense caused problems for Wake the first time around. This is the sixth meeting between these teams over the past decade and prior to Navy's win this season Wake Forest had won all four meeting. So even though this revenge for Wake from earlier this season Navy will still be motivated to show that the earlier win was no fluke. Navy's discipline and the fact they knew long ago that they would be in this Bowl game if the were Bowl eligible makes them the call. Wake Forest had some higher aspirations for post season play. The call is for Navy to pull the mild upset, winning 20-17 and making NAVY a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER a 1 Star Selection

New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque, NM - Saturday, December 20, 2008

This appears to be the most unattractive of all 34 Bowl matchups but that does not mean it won't be a well played competitive game. These teams appear very evenly matched. Fresno State was expected to have a better season than the one that unfolded whereas Colorado State exceeded expectations in the first season in the post Sonny Lubick era after the long time coach retired after last season. Fresno's 2-10 ATS record shows just how much the Bulldogs underachieved as Fresno averaged being favored by under a TD this season. Neither team distinguished itself when stepping out of conference. Fresno's home 13-10 loss to Wisconsin was not as impressive as it appeared at the time considering how the Badgers struggled for much of the season. The same can be said of their road win at UCLA. Yes, they did rout Rutgers on the road to start the season but Rutgers did not gain their stride until mid season. CSU lost one sided games at Cal and to Colorado. Their most notable win came against Houston. There are more negatives than positives for both of these teams which means there are no real edges. Fresno has an edge in rushing offense while CSU has the passing edge. Fresno State does have more recent Bowl experience including a 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in last season's Humanitarian Bowl. CSU is familiar with the site as a conference affiliate of host New Mexico. One large negative for Fresno is a defense that created on average just 1 turnover per game, ranking ahead of only Washington in that stat. The intangibles tend to favor the underdog as the Rams look at this game as a reward for a season in which steady progress was made. Fresno was thinking in much larger terms when the season began. Colorado State wins 24-20, making Colorado State a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

St Petersburg Bowl - St Petersburg, FL - Saturday, December 20, 2008

This Bowl is a major disappointment for South Florida on two fronts. First, the Bulls were expected to contend in what turned out to be a weak Big East conference this season, making their failure to do so all the more disappointing. Secondly, this Bowl is hardly a reward being played basically in their own neighborhood. Even a trip elsewhere within Florida would have generated more interest from the team, fans and alumni and thus the motivation for USF must be called into question. Memphis had a rather nondescript season with no notable wins. Their only win over a Bowl bound team was a 36-30 home win over Southern Miss. Memphis lost to the only other 2 Bowl bound teams they faced, Ole Miss and East Carolina. South Florida can at least claim wins over 3 Bowl bound teams (Kansas, North Carolina State and Connecticut) while losing to Pitt, Cincinnati, Rutgers and West Virginia. South Florida played the tougher schedule with mixed success. The Bulls have a decided edge on defense, allowing 51 yards and 5.5 point per game less than Memphis. South Florida was # 9 nationally against the run, allowing just 98 yards per game. South Florida is clearly the better team but, again, motivation must be questioned. This is one of our least attractive games because of the big pointspread and the overall mediocrity of the teams. Still, taking huge points in a minor Bowl has historically been profitable as its hard to justify such large favoritism for what is essentially an average football team regardless of the opponent or site of game. As such we have a very lukewarm call for the side in this game with a slightly stronger preference for the Total. South Florida gets the win but by only 27-20, making MEMPHIS a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection

Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas, NV - Saturday, December 20, 2008

BYU is making their fourth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl yet the program and team remains enthusiastic about getting to defend the Las Vegas Bowl title they've won the past 2 seasons following a loss 3 years ago. Arizona will be the fourth different Pac 10 opponent for the Cougars who have enjoyed tremendous crowd support the past three years. Arizona makes their first trip to a Bowl game in a decade and they will also have fan support as the Wildcats' men's hoops team is in town to face UNLV earlier in the day. BYU has one of the more dramatic S/U vs ATS records as their 10-2 straight up mark shows tremendous success on the playing field while their 3-8 ATS mark shows underachievement relative to expectations. But what this means is that BYU was heavily favored in most of their games, winning but failing to cover. In fact, BYU averaged being a 14.8 point favorite this season and they fell short of covering by an average of just 1.5 points. Here they are the underdog against a "Bowl Virgin" - a team that has not been to a Bowl in many years. Historically such favorites make for poor propositions when facing an experienced underdog such as the case here. BYU is familiar with the pageantry surrounding the Bowl and likely takes a ho-hum approach. Arizona is more apt to take in the festivities and thus be more distracted than their foes. There is recent history between these teams as they opened the season playing each other in 2006 and 2007. Arizona won the first meeting at home 16-13 as a 6 ½ point favorite. In 2007 BYU exacted revenge as a 3 ½ point underdog, winning 20-7. Both games were very low scoring perhaps because it was the season opener and the defenses were ahead of the more sophisticated offenses. Note that BYU will have been idle for 4 weeks and Arizona for 2 when this game kicks off, perhaps portending another low scoring affair. Both teams averaged 35+ points per game this season while each allowed just over 21 ppg. The weather could be cold with the late afternoon kick off which could work to keep scoring down as well. BYU had the nation's # 7 pass offense. Arizona was # 14 vs the pass. Arizona had slight statistical edges in the ground game although BYU had a lower yards per rush allowed average (3.9 vs 4.2). BYU was 2-0 against Pac 10 teams this season, fortunate to defeat lowly Washington 28-27 (Arizona beat the Huskies 48-14) and followed that win up with a 59-0 home rout of UCLA (Arizona won 31-10 at UCLA0. Arizona sis not step up in class outside Pac 10 play but did face one MWC foe, losing 36-28 at New Mexico (BYU defeated the Lobos 21-3 at home). BYU was thumped in mid season at TCU but then ran off 4 straight wins before losing at arch rival Utah to end the season. Arizona was more spotty down the stretch but did end their season by beating arch rival Arizona State 31-10. BYU has a major edge in Bowl experience and that edge combined with their talent, senior leadership and their program being in a more mature stage gives them the nod. BYU wins 27-23, making BYU a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .

New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA - Sunday, December 21, 2008

Southern Miss enjoys a slight regional edge in this game but Troy will be well represented at the site of their only previous Bowl win, 41-17 over Rice two years ago. Troy went 8-4 last season but did not win the Sun Belt title and thus went uninvited to a Bowl game. They will be very excited to be here. Southern Miss played one Sun Belt team this season, winning at Arkansas State 27-24 but being outgained 447-348. Troy soundly defeated ASU at home 35-9 to end the season, barely outgaining ASU 337-332. Southern Miss faced one team from a BCS conference, losing 27-13 at Auburn. They also lost 24-7 at home to unbeaten Boise State in mid season. Troy faced 3 members of BCS conference, losing at Ohio State (31-10), Oklahoma State (55-24) and their memorable 40-31 loss at LSU in which they led 31-3 in the third quarter! The game against Ohio State was closer than the final score shows, indicative of a team whose starters can compete for much of the game against more talented foes but whose lack of depth is what ultimately is too much. Southern Miss ended the season on a roll, winning 4 straight conference games to close their season. They are making a seventh straight Bowl appearance. Long time coach Jeff Bower was let go following last season's Bowl loss to Cincinnati. Our Conference Power Ratings show both Conference USA and the Sun Belt having improved this season with C-USA still higher rated but the Sun Belt closing the gap. Troy does enjoy most of the statistical edges in this game which is impressive considering their non-conference slate. Southern Miss did benefit from not having to face the two most high powered offenses in their conference (Tulsa and Houston) but did defeat ultimate conference champ East Carolina (21-3 at home). By scheduling tough Troy has shown it is not intimidated by mightier programs and here they only step up to face another non-BCD team. Troy's body of work justifies them being favored in this game and their overall performances suggest they should be able to get by a middle of the pack Conference USA foe. Troy wins 34-24, making TROY a 2 Star Selection and the OVER a 1 Star Selection .

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA - Tuesday, December 23, 2008

This is one of the most attractive of all 34 Bowl matchups including the BCS games. It is also very intriguing on several fronts as Boise State looks to complete their second unbeaten season in 3 years. Included in their 12-0 season is a 37-32 road win at Oregon in which the Ducks closed the gap late to make the game look close. Boise was in control all the way. TCU stepped up in class but lost at Oklahoma 35-10. But no other team held Oklahoma to under 35 points all season (Texas held the Sooners to exactly 35). In fact, defense is the key in describing this game. In total yards allowed TCU ranked # 2 nationally, Boise State # 15. In points allowed TCU was # 2, Boise State # 3. Against the rush TCU was # 1 (49 yards per game) while Boise was # 15 (105 ypg). Other than Oklahoma no team scored more than 14 points against TCU all season. And other than the 32 points allowed at Oregon and 34 allowed at Nevada (in a 41-34 win) Boise did not allow more than 16 points to any of their other 10 foes. TCU held 7 teams to 7 points or less. Boise did the same to 6 of their foes. Both teams have above average offenses and also each averaged at least 35 points per game, allowing for the seemingly high total. But many of the points these teams scored came as a result of defensive plays. These teams are very evenly matched and this game handicaps as one of the best played and most competitive of all Bowls. Defenses should dominate offenses. TCU does have the better balanced offense and they rarely turn the ball over, losing just 13 turnovers all season. Yet Boise's defense forced 31 turnovers this season, # 4 in the nation at 2.6 per game. Boise is the underdog despite being unbeaten and if the line rises to + 3 they would be upgraded one star. As it is the preference is for a low scoring game and that is where the strength of this selection lies. Look for Boise State to complete their undefeated season by beating TCU 23-16, making BOISE STATE a 2 Star Selection and the UNDER a 4 Star Selection .

Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HI - Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Notre Dame has lost 9 consecutive Bowls since their Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M on New Year's Day 1994. During this span over 90 colleges have won at least one Bowl game. That's rather remarkable given the storied history of the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame bottomed out last season with a 3-9 mark but their 6-6 mark this season is considered disappointing. Hawaii was also down this season after Georgia ruined their hopes of a 13-0 when the Bulldogs walloped Hawaii 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl, exposing the class difference between the programs, Hawaii's coach and QB from last year's team are gone and the results showed on the playing field. Hawaii struggled against the quality teams they faced with their lone win over a Bowl bound team being at Fresno. Notre Dame's only win over a Bowl bound team was over Navy. Still, Notre Dame does have the better athletes. Hawaii has the home field. But even at home should Hawaii be favored over a team such as Notre Dame? Not if Notre Dame is motivated. And while early reports suggest there is not all that much enthusiasm for this Bowl expect that to change as game time nears. Look for Notre Dame to make a priority of building towards next season by ending their long time Bowl failures. Hawaii is by far the weakest Bowl foe Notre Dame has faced during their 9 Bowl losing streak. Even on the road Notre Dame is the better team. They played better opposition and have the better defense, especially against the pass. Sure, Hawaii usually gets some officiating breaks at home but that cannot be counted upon going in. Look for Notre Dame to be focused for this game and at least temporarily ease the pressure on coach Charlie Weis. This is not one of our stronger recommendations but we cannot overlook the class difference between the athletes and the fact that the better athletes are the underdogs. Notre Dame wins34-27, making NOTRE DAME a 3 Star Selection and the OVER also a 3 Star Selection

Pointwise BOWLS

Bowls are rated 1 through 6, with 1-4 being Key Releases (1 being the highest rating). Games rated "5" are considered "best of the rest". Games rated "6" are light opinions only.

BOWL SYSTEM

BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the simplest & most successful bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Let's see how this
simple & uncomplicated trend has fared over the last 34 bowl campaigns.

YEAR BOWL FOE OF HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER

RESULT: 24-8-1: 75% VS SPREAD

Bowls are rated 1 through 6, with 1-4 being Key Releases (1 being the highest rating). Games rated "5" are considered "best of the rest". Games rated "6" are light opinions only.

EAGLE BANK BOWL
WAKE FOREST (7-5) vs NAVY (8-4)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20
11:00 AM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Wk Forest ... 43.1 ...20-21 ... 17-16 ...112-116 ...189-184 .. +16 . Navy
Navy............ 39.9 ...28-21 ... 17-18 .. 298-126 .....63-216 .. +16 . by 2.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
Here we go! The first of no less than thirty-four Bowl Games! As we noted the
past 2 years, we released our very first bowl edition (Tues, Dec 16, 1969), and it
consisted of exactly 8 Bowls: Sun, Gator, Peach, Blue Bonnet, Rose, Cotton,
Orange, & Sugar. And again, as lifted from last year, we noted that the "bowl
eligible" mission seems the main quest for the vast majority of marginal squads.
Yes, a 6-6 record is actually coveted in most quarters. Sad. That being said, this
post-season kicks off with a rare treat, namely a same-season revenge setup.
For the Middies of Navy, this marks the 2nd consecutive year that they've opened
the Bowl Season, as they took 7½-pt chalk, Utah, to the final gun, in a hard
fought 35-32 setback LY. In that one, they ran for their usual 316 yds, but nailed
the cover on a 58-yd Kaheaku-Enhada TD pass in the final 0:57. We say "usual"
because they have now led the nation in rushing for the 4th straight year. Not
only that, but this marks their 6th straight winning season, the most since their
10-season run from 1952-61. For the Deacons of Wake Forest, this is their 3rd
consecutive bowl campaign, after never before playing in back-to-back holiday
contests. They came in a year ago, as a "1" Rated play, in their rout of UConn
(200-yd edge), in the Meineke Bowl. Down a bit from 11-3 & 9-4 campaigns, the
past 2 years, & rank only 103rd in total "O", with Skinner just 7/12, including 4
INTs in Deacons' earlier 24-17 loss to Mids, as 16-pt chalks. Nothing wrong with
their "D", which finished 21st vs the run. But note that Navy dented it for a 292-
43 RY edge in their first meeting. Wake was a 16-pt favorite in that one, & hasn't
allowed another team to reach 150 RYs. But we can't buck Navy as a bowl dog.
PROPHECY: NAVY 27 - Wake Forest 24 RATING: 6

ST PETERSBURG BOWL
AT ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDA (7-5) vs MEMPHIS (6-6)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN2 TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
So Florida ... 42.2 ...27-21 ... 22-17 .. 160- 98 ...238-193 .. - 7 . So Florida
Memphis ..... 34.2 ...28-26 ... 25-16 .. 206-146 ...227-196 .. + 0 . by 7.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
First year for this bowl, as they continue to mount. The Bulls of South Florida
surely own the home field advantage, as their campus is just a stone's throw
from the site of this contest. It has been a highly disappointing season for the
Bulls, who reached the #10 spot in the nation, after opening with 5 straight wins,
including a narrow escape over Kansas, & culminating with a complete throttling
of bowl-bound NCSt, 41-10 (21½ pt cover). But it wasn't to be, as USF followed
that brilliant start, with a 2-5 windup, with 2 of their 3 covers in those final 7
games coming by a single pt each. QB Grothe was a pre-season AA candidate,
but he has been sporadic at best down the stretch, throwing for no less than 11
interceptions in his last 5 games, winding up the season with 15 TDs & 14 INTs.
Overland, the Bulls topped 184 yds, in just 2 of 11 lined games. But their "D" has
been super, finishing as the 13th best stop unit in the nation, holding UConn &
WVa to 13 pts apiece, in their final 2 games. And that unit had better be at its
best, if it is to contain the Tigers of Memphis, who are making their 5th bowl
appearance, in the past 6 years, with the chalk winning & covering the previous
4. This seemed like a lost season, when their first 3 QBs went out vs EastCaro,
but they've rebounded by winning 3 of their last 4. Check their 25-16 FDpg edge
above, as well as their nicely balanced "O". They rank 18th in the country in
running, & 22nd in the land in total offense. But can they do it against the quality
Bull defense? A year ago, SoFlorida was simply carved up in its bowl match with
Oregon, losing 56-21, as a 5½ pt chalk, suffering through a 38-7 second-half
deficit. Thus, they will be prepared. But the spot isn't reflective of their season.
PROPHECY: South Florida 30 - MEMPHIS 21 RATING: 6

NEW MEXICO BOWL
AT ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO
AT WASHINGTON, D.C.

FRESNO STATE (7-5) vs COLORADO STATE (6-6)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20
2:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO
Fresno St .... 36.9 ...29-30 ... 21-20 .. 177-197 ...207-196 .. - 11 . Colo St
Colo St ........ 41.7 ...40-30 ... 20-22 .. 130-186 ...248-222 .. + 2 . by 8.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
Third year for this bowl, & first without the Lobos of New Mexico, who, obviously,
played host the past 2 years (1-1, both SU & ATS). The Bulldogs of Fresno St
opened the campaign with a bang, upsetting Rutgers, 24-7, before a nationally
televised audience, with a 206-106 RY edge, including 163 from Mathews. So, it
appeared that Fresno was off-&-running toward a highly successful season, not
only on the field, but also in the battle with the oddsmakers. Early season spread
success has been a Bulldog staple over recent campaigns. But it wasn't to be, as
Fresno was to lose its next 9 games ATS, despite winning 5 of those 9, straightup.
That's right, one nailbiter after another. Six of those nine were decided by 5 pts or
less, including the Bulldogs' 55-54 OT win over Toledo, as 6-pt chalks. As the
season drew to a close, they would cover only one other game, & that against a
San Jose St team, which was a total basket case as the season drew to a close.
And that win was followed by a disastrous showing in their closing 61-10 loss to
perfect Boise. At season's end, QB Brandstater, who entered the season with
much acclaim, was a decent 17/11, but nothing special, & that Bulldog "D" ranked
87th. And check a "minus 11" in the all-important TO column. The Colorado St
Rams return to the bowl scene for the first time since '05, with Fairchild becoming
the first coach in Ram history to direct his team to a bowl in his first season. CSU
is the ultimate 6-6 "bowl eligible" squad, as it had to win its last 2 games to enter
the post-season picture, doing so vs a demoralized New Mexico team, as well as
Wyoming, which proved a true dreg. The Rams outrushed exactly 2 teams, &
lost by such margins of 21, 33, 45, & 21 pts. Hold our noses, & call this Fresno.
PROPHECY: FRESNO STATE 31 - Colorado State 24 RATING: 6

LAS VEGAS BOWL
AT LAS VEGAS, NEVADA
ARIZONA (7-5) vs BYU (10-2)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Arizona ....... 40.4 ...37-21 ... 22-15 .. 164-132 ... 237-170 .. + 6 . Arizona
BYU ............. 37.7 ...35-21 ... 24-21 .. 134-143 ... 310-207 .. + 2 . by 4.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
Oh, what a match! The Cougars of BYU return to the Las Vegas Bowl for the 4th
consecutive year: losing 35-28 (push) to Cal in '05; winning 38-8 (26½ pt cover)
over Oregon in '06, & sneaking past UCLA, 17-16 (5-pt ATS loss) in '07. This
season, they had dreams of a much greater reward, especially after opening with
6 consecutive wins, & climbing to the #8 spot in the nation. Led by QB Hall, who
has thrown for 3,629 yds (69.6%), along with 34 TDs (60 the past 2 years) & only
13 INTs, and WR Collie, who led the nation with 1,419 receiving yds (15 TDs),
they wound up the regular season with the 6th best overhead attack. They have
also had their moments, overland, with power back Unga running for 1,061 yds &
10 TDs. So why the Las Vegas Bowl again? In a word: "defense". It just couldn't
compete down the stretch, allowing 36.6 ppg in 5 of the Cougars' last 6 games,
with the only decent showing vs woeful SanDiegoSt. Try 25 & 24 pt losses to
TCU & Utah, along with a spread slide of 1-7 to wind things up. As crazy as it
seems, this is Arizona's first bowl appearance in 10 years, a 23-20 win, as FG
dogs, over Nebraska in the '98 Holiday Bowl. They finished 12-1 that season, but
nary a winning campaign, before this year's 7-5 mark, which could have been so
much better. A 1-pt loss to Stanford in the final 0:25; a 2-pt loss to OregonSt as
time expired; & a 7-pt loss to mighty USC. Only Stanford & Oregon ran on 'em in
Pac10 play. Overland, offensively, they are middle-of-the-road. QB Tuitama is
their catalyst, with 21 TD passes, & only 8 picks. And their rushing "D" ranks
20th in the land, with their pass efficiency "D" at #16. BYU was pegged as a dog
just twice all year, those 25 & 24 pt losses. We'll give the FG with the better "D".
PROPHECY: ARIZONA 38 - Byu 27 RATING: 3

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

TROY (8-4) vs SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (6-6)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21
8:15 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Troy ............ 38.7 .. 33-21 .. 23-18 .. 175-140 .. 246-180 .. + 6 . Troy
So Miss ...... 36.1 .. 31-24 .. 22-20 .. 196-145 .. 238-224 .. +13 . by 4.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
As we wrote a year ago, the Golden Eagles of So Mississippi have become a
near permanent holiday fixture. Participating in 10 bowls in 11 years, previous
to this season, they seemed headed for 11-of-12, when they opened at 2-1,
with that loss coming at Auburn. But things took a decided turn for the worse,
with 5 consecutive losses, allowing 35.8 ppg, & losing all 5 to the spread by a
combined 45 pts. Thus, a 2-6 slate, with the tunnel light just about out. But,
with their backs to the wall, this squad found itself. The result? A 4-game run,
by a cumulative score of 136-35, as well as a 4-0 spread run by 73 pts. So,
here they are, in their 11th bowl slot in 12 years. As the dust settled, SoMiss
ranked 20th in the land in total "O", behind the exploits of frosh QB Davis:
2,852 yds (21/8), frosh WR Brown: 16.8 yds per catch (12 TDs), & junior RB
Fletcher, whose consistency is a thing of beauty: 1,388, 1,431, 1,235, & RYs.
Defensively, the Eagles were vastly improved down the stretch. For the Troy
Trojans, this marks their 3rd bowl shot in the last 5 years, with a loss to NoIllinois
in the '04 Silicon Valley Classic, but a 41-17 rout of Rice (29-pt cover) in this
bowl, just 2 years ago, picking off 5 Owl passes, in the process. No bowl in
'07, despite an 8-4 record. Thus 3 straight 8-win seasons for Troy, despite
losing QBs Hampton & Jones in October. Enter Levi Brown, who has thrown
for 1,775 yds & 14 TDs in just 7 games as a starter. RB Harris motors at 5.4
ypr, while WR Jernigan is a threat (803 receiving yds). We are fully aware that
the SunBelt has covered the last 2 NewOrleans bowls by 29 & 20½ pts. But
the bowl tested Eagles are hitting on all cylinders. So we'll grab the FG spot.
PROPHECY: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 31 - Troy 30 RATING: 5

POINSETTIA BOWL
AT SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA

TCU (10-2) vs BOISE STATE (12-0)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
TCU............. 40.5 .. 35-11 ... 23-12 .. 216- 49 .. 201-166 .. +13 . Boise St
Boise St ...... 37.3 .. 34-12 .. 23-17 .. 163-105 .. 294-190 .. + 7 . by 5.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
This one should be played on New Year's Day. A December 23rd slot just isn't
right for teams which finished the season with a combined 22-2 record, while
ranking 9th & 11th in both final regular season polls. As a matter of fact, the
only losses suffered by either of these teams came at the hands of top-ranked
Oklahoma & 7th-ranked Utah. That's right, the TCU Horned Frogs were the
victims of both powers. They held the Okies to 25 RYs, but couldn't withstand
the Sooners' overhead bombardment, with a 4-0 TO deficit sealing the verdict.
In their loss to the perfect Utes, the Frogs held a 416-275 yd edge, but lost in
the final 0:48, 13-10. A true power, this marks TCU's 10th bowl trip in the last
11 years, covering their last 5 holiday games, including the '03 Fort Worth vs
none other than Boise. At season's end, the Frogs ranked 2nd, 1st, 4th, & 1st
in total, rushing, passing, & scoring "D". And TCU is a brilliant +136½ pts ATS
in its last 16 games. Thus, the perfect Broncos will have to be at their best, if
they are to post their 3rd 13-win season in the last 6 years. That's right, they
just keep on doing it. From Koetter, to Hawkins, to Petersen, the excellence of
Boise hardly wavers. Since 1999, this team has posted a cumulative record of
108-19 on the field, as well as a spectacular 84-42 spread record. This year,
they are led by frosh QB Moore, who finished the season as the 15th-ranked
signal-caller in the nation: 70% (25/9), as the Broncos finished with the 12th
rated overhead game. Overland, Boise topped 180 RYs in only 3 lined games,
vs teams which ranked 116th, 109th, & 105th in running "D". A perfect team
as a pup is indeed a juicy proposition. But that Frog "D" is the difference here.
PROPHECY: TCU 24 - Boise State 17 RATING: 2

MOTOR CITY BOWL
AT DETROIT, MICHIGAN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4) vs FLORIDA ATLANTIC (6-6)
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cent Mich ... 39.9 .. 30-31 .. 23-22 .. 134-139 .. 293-286.. + 4 . Cent Mich
Fla Atlantic . 36.1 .. 25-29 .. 20-22 .. 141-183 .. 251-219.. - 9 . by 7.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Defense! Defense! Surely, that's not the byword, as far as either of these two
teams are concerned. Check the score of the final game for each squad: a
57-50 win for the Owls of Florida Atlantic, and a 56-52 loss for the Chippewas
of Central Michigan. The Owls needed it for a "bowl eligible" 6-6 record, after
opening at 1-5, following '07's campaign, in which they finished at 8-5, with a
44-27 thrashing of Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl (20½ pt cover). The
Chips, on the other hand, were safely ensconced in a bowl slot, before losing
to 3-8 EasternMich, to wind up a disappointing season. We say disappointing,
as they had won the MAC in '06 & '07, with resounding 31-10 & 35-10 rompers
in their conference title games (24½ & 22 pt covers). Led by Dan LeFevour,
who has been a brilliant manager, throwing for 8,760 yds & 67 TDs the past 3
years, the Chippewas have posted a 26-14 mark in '06, '07, & '08. But their
bane is a "D" which ranks 105th, overall, allowing 38 ppg in their last 4 outings.
As noted above, the Owls needed a spectacular finish to get to this point. A
check above shows the overwhelming edge to Central, in the all-important TO
category, as FAU turned the ball over at least twice in 9 of its 12 games, & at
least 3 times in 5 games. Pure suicide here, if they are to continue that trend.
But like the Chips, FlaAtlantic is led by a proven QB in the person of Rusty
Smith, who finished the year with 2,918 PYs & 22 TDs, including 389 PYs & 5
TDs in his last game vs FlaInternational. We would love to grab the TD & the
Owls, but a year ago, FAU led the nation in TO ratio (+19), & that stat just can't
be overemphasized. Fifth game on this field for Chips in last 3 years. Grab it.
PROPHECY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 48 - Florida Atlantic 37 RATING: 5

HAWAII BOWL
AT HONOLULU, HAWAII

HAWAII (7-6) vs NOTRE DAME (6-6)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 24
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Hawaii ......... 38.2 .. 25-27 .. 18-18 .... 99-148 .. 246-204.. - 5 . Hawaii
No Dame .... 42.4 .. 23-22 .. 19-18 .. 113-143 .. 231-185.. - 5 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a difference a couple of years make. The arrival of Charlie Weiss as
head coach of the Irish of Notre Dame, in '05, seemingly ushered in the return
of the "Glory Days", with apologies to Bruce Springsteen. A combined 19-4
regular season record for the Irish in '05 & '06, directly on the heels of 3 non
winning campaigns in the previous 4 years. Everything was right with the
world, despite a pair of devastating bowl losses by scores of 34-20 & 41-14 (9
& 19 pts ATS). But a funny thing happened on the road to Charlie's coronation
as a genius. A 3-9 season in '07, in which NotreDame finished dead last in the
nation in total offense, as well as 2nd worst in scoring, put a quick end to most
of the dreams. However, 16 returning starters surely boded well for a fast
turnaround, and the Irish did break out to a 5-2 start. But it must be noted that
not only did their victims wind up with a combined 14-46 record, but NoDame
had little in the tank, overland (98th), with QB Clausen their main weapon.
However, he was prone to the INT, throwing 17 during the course of the year,
& the Irish limped in with a 6-6 record, including losing as a 20-pt chalk to
Syracuse, & posting 4 FDs at USC. But a trip to Hawaii, nonetheless, to take
on a Rainbow team which is just a shadow of its former offensive titan status.
As everyone knows, June Jones, who led the 'Bows to at least 9 wins 6 times
in his 9 years with Hawaii, is now pacing the sidelines at SMU. In '06 & '07, the
'Bows led the nation with 46.8 & 46.2 ppg displays, ranking 1st & 3rd in total
"O". Not the same under McMackin (63rd in scoring, 73rd in total "O"), but a
4-0 windup, covering 7 of their last 9, behind QB Alexander. We lay the deuce.
PROPHECY: HAWAII 30 - Notre Dame 20 RATING: 4

MEINEKE BOWL
AT CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA

WEST VIRGINIA (8-4) vs NORTH CAROLINA (8-4)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
1:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
W Virginia .. 43.2 .. 24-16 .. 18-20 .. 217-135 .. 135-191.. +12 . W Virginia
N Carolina .. 44.3 .. 28-20 .. 16-20 .. 125-141 .. 192-217.. + 6 . by 5.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
Seventh straight bowl appearance for the Mountaineers of West Virginia, the
first under the tutelage of Bill Stewart, who inherited the unenviable task of
replacing Rich Rodriguez, who led the Mounties to 11-win seasons in each of
the past 3 years. The trigger, of course, is QB White, who has sent tremors
through more than a few opposing defenses over the past 4 seasons. He not
only is dynamite, overhead (1,510 yds, 18 TDs, & only 6 INTs), but is near
impossible to bring down in the open field, rushing for 919 yds. Ditto a year
ago, when he finished 9th in passing efficiency, with 1,724 yds (14/4). He has
averaged 7.3, 7.4, 6.9, & 5.4 in rushing for 4,425 yds the past 4 years. Gone
is running mate, Steve Slaton, but Devine is no slouch, with his 1,228 RYs (6.4
ypr). Add to that, a defense, which ranks 9th in scoring, & you have a near
unbeatable team, right? Technically, yes, but this year's results have been a
major step down from the past 3 years, when WVa ranked 4th, 3rd, & 3rd in
rushing, while scoring at 32, 39, & 40 ppg clips. A ticking bomb, to be sure, but
the results pale in comparison to recent editions. The Tar Heels of North
Carolina return to the bowl scene for the first time since the '04 Continental, &
for just the 2nd time in a decade. That's right, this marks only their 2nd winning
year since 1998. Thus, Butch Davis is obviously righting this listing ship,
altho it certainly isn't overland, where the Tars rank a lowly 87th, never topping
187 yds. So it's overhead, right. Wrong: just 83rd, altho Sexton & Yates have
combined for 18 TDs & 2,218 yds. But note 'Heels 45-24 FD deficit in their
stretch run losses to Maryland & NCSt. Home field is not enough for Carolina.
PROPHECY: WEST VIRGINIA 27 - North Carolina 17 RATING: 2

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
AT ORLANDO, FLORIDA

FLORIDA STATE (8-4) vs WISCONSIN (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Florida St ... 48.3 .. 33-21 .. 20-17 .. 180-127 .. 186-165.. - 3 . Florida St
Wisconsin .. 44.8 .. 28-25 .. 20-17 .. 205-132 .. 188-189.. - 5 . by 1.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
First-ever meeting for these 2 perennial bowl participants. For the Seminoles
of Florida State, this marks their 27th straight bowl season, & 30th in Bobby
Bowden's 33 years of leadership. However, as is the case every year, a bit of
history shows that this makes 3 straight years without a premier New Year's
Day slot for FlaSt. From '87 thru '00, the Sems suffered no more than 2 losses
in any season, an incredible 14-year run. However, they've tasted defeat 36
times since 2001, including 21 setbacks over the past 4 years. But at least in
'08, they've somewhat stopped the offensive bleeding, with saw them ranked
59th, 75th, & 82nd in total "O" the past 3 years. Their current 55th rating isn't
anything special, but at least it's a turn in the right direction. And their 33 ppg
average is a full 10 pts better than '07, moving from 90th to 22nd. Overland,
they've had their moments, averaging 248 yds vs Miami, GaTech, & Clemson,
but try 89 & 73 vs VaTech & BC. Unreliable. Nothing wrong, defensively, as
they rank 14th overall - 30th vs the run. Thus, that unit must contain what has
been the Badgers' bread-&-butter for the past dozen year, the overland game.
This marks UW's 7th straight bowl season, & 12th in the last 13 years. They
are led by Hill & Clay (combined 1,866 RYs, 22 TDs). The insertion of Sherer
at QB resulted in a rebirth of that running game, somewhat, but the fact of the
matter is that they've topped 179 RYs in just 3 lined games. Defensively, they
throttled such teams as Illinois, MichSt, & Minnesota (71 RYpg), but finished
with the 58th ranked scoring "D". The past 3 years have seen the dog cover 5-
of-6 bowls, involving these 2 squads, with the only miss by just 2½ pts. Again.
PROPHECY: WISCONSIN 27 - Florida State 24 RATING: 2

EMERALD BOWL
AT SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIA (8-4) vs MIAMI OF FLORIDA (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
California ... 43.8 .. 33-20 .. 18-18 .. 184-123 .. 196-193.. +14 . California
Miami .......... 46.9 .. 30-24 .. 17-17 .. 130-144 .. 197-169.. - 9 . by 11.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
The Hurricanes of Miami return to the bowl scene, after a rare miss LY, which
ended a 9-yr run. Their downward trend was obvious. Check it out beginning
with '00: 11-1, 12-0 (national title), 12-1, 11-2, 9-3, 9-3, 7-6, 5-7, & 8-4. So a
rebirth of sorts, with 11 new starters. They've had their moments, with such pt
explosions of 41, 39, & 49 pts, but 2 of those 3 came vs Duke & TexasA&M, a
pair of 4-8 squads. And overland they managed a meager 159, 51, & 154 yds
in those 3. As you can see from the above stats, 130 RYpg hardly translates
into a power. Cooper is the only back with more than 62 carries, checking in at
4.9 ypr, & just 4 TDs. Overhead, it is a mixed bag, with the combo of Marve &
Harris throwing for 2,294 yds, but with their 19 TDs offset by an identical 19
INTs, which has contributed to the 'Canes' 101st ranking in the nation in TO
ratio. Defensively, UM fared much better: 23rd overall. But check being skinned
for 41 & 38 pts in their final 2 games, along with 472, 219 RYs (518, 439 TYs):
15-pt, 12-pt spread losses. Those losses (GaTech & NCSt) were on the road,
which is exactly where this game takes place. A definite home game for the
Bears of California, who mark their 6th consecutive bowl season, with this
one. A year ago, they rose from the ashes in the Armed Forces Bowl, turning
a 21-0 deficit vs AirForce, into a 42-30 lead, winning 42-36, as a 4½ pt chalk.
They are led by the scintillating Best: 1,394 RYs (8.0 ypr), with QBs Riley &
Longshore contributing 22 TDs & just 10 INTs. The Bears rank 7th in the land
in TO margin, & have been a special force at home. As a matter of fact, the
host is on a 12-2 spread run in Cal games. No reason to be leary of TD spot.
PROPHECY: CALIFORNIA 33 - Miami of Florida 17 RATING: 1

INDEPENDENCE BOWL
AT SHREVEPORT, LOUISIANA

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-6) vs LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28
8:15 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
No Illinois ... 36.6 .. 25-18 .. 18-17 .. 169-137 .. 161-163.. + 4 . La Tech
La Tech ....... 38.5 .. 25-25 .. 19-20 .. 195-100 .. 157-280.. + 7 . by 0.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly the match that the country has been eagerly awaiting, but these 2
seemingly non-entities could provide a very entertaining show. This marks
just the 3rd time in their gridiron history, that the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech
play in a bowl game that includes a national line. They participated in the '77
& '78 Independence Bowls, against Louisville & East Carolina, when neither
the Cards, nor the Pirates were on the Vegas rotation. Their other 2 holiday
contests took place in the '90 Independence, when, as a 1-pt dog they tied
Maryland, 34-34, as time expired. And in '01, they were fodder for Clemson in
a 49-24 Humanitarian Bowl mauling. But here they are again, less than 100
miles from their campus, to boot. Thus, the 10-2 ATS home record in games
involving Tech, must be taken into account. The Bulldogs rely on an overland
game which finished as the 26th best in the nation, with Porter & Jackson a
combined 1,730 yds & 16 TDs. Defensively, Tech was stung for 35, 38, 31, &
35 pts in 4 of its final 5 outings, but managed 38, 45, 38, & 31 pts in those 4.
As we said, entertaining. The Huskies are just the opposite, ranking only 83rd
in total offense, but with a suffocating "D", which finished 14th in scoring. Check
holding 8 of their last 10 opponents to 3, 0, 13, 7, 13, 14, & 16 pts. Sure, they
were stung for 45 & 33 pts in their 2 misses, but 1 was an OT loss to potent
CentMich. Only vs BallSt, were the Huskies overmatched, as 4 of their other
5 losses came by just 4, 3, 4, & 3 pts, with the fifth a 16-0 setback to Navy. Try
just 12 TD passes, along with 10 INTs, for the season. We normally shade the
better defense, but Tech has been a solid "host" play all season. A weak call.
PROPHECY: LOUISIANA TECH 19 - Northern Illinois 16 RATING: 6