Bowls heat up Books
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Before you begin to make your selection for the Dec. 28 Alamo Bowl between Baylor (-9 ½) and Washington, you may want to consider a trend that has proved pretty profitable the last 37 years and is hitting at 71 percent. Yes, it’s the Heisman jinx.
You may not be into the jinx or curse thing, but it can be pretty powerful. Just ask the Red Sox and the Bambino, the Cubs and the goat, and the player featured on the Madden football game each year -- how’s that contract coming along Peyton Hillis?
Winning the Heisman Trophy carries a burden with it that seems to spill over onto the field of play in their next game, which is the bowl game, unless your Andre Ware who won in 1989 with Houston and didn‘t go to one.
While the last two Heisman winners, Cam Newton (Auburn) and Mark Ingram (Alabama), won and covered their bowls, collectively, it has been pretty strong. If you simply bet against the Heisman winner since 1974, you have covered at a rate of 25-10-1. I’ll take that any day.
Washington should have been pretty enticing already getting points. Last season, the Huskies shocked the nation with the biggest upset of the Bowl season by beating Nebraska (-13) 19-7 in the Holiday Bowl.
It’s hard to look pass Baylor’s impressive five-game winning streak coming in that include wins against Texas and Oklahoma, but the Big 12 isn’t what it’s all cracked to be just because they don’t play any defense. This is why the Big 12 struggles collectively in bowl games, almost on par with the MAC.
Over the last three bowl seasons the Big 12 has gone 7-16 (30%) against the spread matched up against other conferences. Their style of play works well against each other in with no defense and they pile up a bunch of points, but if they get frustrated by a harassing defense, it ruins their flow and usually results in defeat.
So when analyzing Washington and Baylor for the game, be sure to consider the Heisman jinx. The cause for the jinx probably has more to do with all the sudden publicity that comes from winning the honor and takes the player to a new level. It’s also puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the winner to perform well along with a bulls-eye on him from opposing teams.
So Much for Trends
While discussing the Heisman trend and how conferences have done in the past, it’s important to note how two conferences did in their first attempts at bowl games this year. The MAC had been 3-10-1 ATS over the last three bowl seasons, but have come out firing with a 2-0 record. The Mountain West had gone 8-2 ATS in their last two bowl season and yet they’ve started this year 0-2.
Conference affiliation and recent past trends
- SEC top heavy (9-11 ATS last 2 bowl seasons)
- Big 12 terrible collectively (7-16 ATS last 3 bowl seasons)
- MWC 8-2 last 2 seasons
- MAC 3-10-1 last 3 bowls
Favorites vs Underdogs - what has happened last 3 seasons
- 2010 Favorites: 20-13, OVER 17-16
- 2009 Favorites: 14-20, UNDER 19-14
- 2008 Favorites: 16-18, UNDER 21-13
Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State comes limping into this game losing their last four games, all games in which they were favored in. Boise State hasn’t covered in their last six games, but four of the spreads were 30 points or higher. Boise State has played solid defense in their last three bowl games allowing only 30 combined points. Look for Boise State (-14) to take out their BCS frustrations on ASU and win quite easily as they send off quarterback Kellen Moore and the other seniors in impressive style.
Sports Books do well!
Last season started out as a disaster for sports books as favorites won the first six bowl games, but Saturday’s kickoff to the bowls went much better. The combination of Temple (-7), Ohio (+1½) and Louisiana-Lafayette (+5) winning was enough to keep bettors off balance and not gain any momentum to ensuing bowls which lessens liability and allows for the books to start the rest of the bowls with a clean slate. Last season’s rough start created a snow-ball effect that multiplied risk through each bowl.