Buyer's Remorse - Week 8

Buyer's Remorse - Week 8
By BetOnline.ag

Watson Wastes An Historic Day

Most of the NFL Week 8 Sunday went chalk after the Baltimore Ravens eviscerated the Miami Dolphins on Thursday. The Eagles kept scoring on the planet, the Saints continue to look abnormally tough, the Redskins are falling apart at the seams and the Steelers are turning back in to a big-play machine. There was a lot of easy money on the table, and six games provided some seriously alarming takeaways.

Let’s dig them out down below.

Indianapolis Colts +10.5 over Cincinnati Bengals

(CIN wins 24-23)

Let’s cut right down to it: Cincinnati is one of the worst home bets in the league. Their 1-3 ATS record is only better than the New York Giants (who have their own problems). It’s just too difficult to trust the Bengals overall. They are too allergic to running the football, and Andy Dalton is regressing at an incredibly unpredictable pace.

None of this makes the Colts bankable, but they might be worth a measure against monster lines. They’re by no means great, and if they trade T.Y. Hilton, they’ll continue to face double-digit odds which might not be the worst thing.

All in all, do you trust either? You’re right not to toss blind faith behind either. Marvin Lewis and Chuck Pagano are not long for the headsets these days.

Buffalo Bills -1.5 over Oakland Raiders

(BUF wins 34-14)

While not an upset, this game is absolutely worth mentioning for NFL futures purposes. The Raiders are now the third worst team in the conference according to the real life standings. We’re not even kidding. Aside from their jaw dropping victory over the Chiefs, the Raiders have lost pivotal tie-breakers to the Chargers and Bills. This puts them desperately up against the ropes.

Even worse is the fact that Vegas can’t seem to get a handle on them. On paper, the Raiders glowed like a nugget of plutonium in the off-season. Derek Carr signed a huge extension and Marshawn Lynch unearthed himself from the grave of retirement to play for his home town. Alongside Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack, one of the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year, this team was supposed to have it all.

Most big names carry their teams given the opportunity, but none of the four listed players for the Raiders seems capable. Mack is an incredible player, but the Raiders rank 25th in total defence (356.9 yards against and 23.8 points allowed). The offence is even less spectacular, mostly because Carr is as erratic as “elite” passers get. To give you perspective on how badly Carr is performing, he’s barely outpacing Jacoby Brissett in terms of production.

The rest of Oakland’s schedule is an absolute gauntlet as well. They play Miami next, and then have a bye week. After that it’s the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles and Chargers. To be fully honest, they need to win six of those games to make the playoffs.

And even that relies on Buffalo losing games which doesn’t seem to be happening anytime soon. The Bills remain the hottest betting team in the NFL at 5-1-1 ATS and while very little is as sexy as what the Raiders propose on paper, honor’s in the dollar and Buffalo is flat out paying.

Carolina Panthers +1.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(CAR wins 17-3)

The Panthers are the boom-or-bust bet of the year. They can beat the Patriots, hang tough with the Eagles and then lose outright to the Bears. You’re really risking it all sanity wise by betting on this team, but that’s about par for the course with the 2017 NFL betting season isn’t it?

As for Tampa, their four-game losing skid is abominable. Jameis Winston looks terrible, and I know he wants to blame a sore shoulder but get real. The Bucs have so much firepower and can’t seem to put it together because of a weak offensive line that gets shellacked against almost everybody. Tampa Bay has now only beaten Eli Manning (barely) and their former quarterback Mike Glennon. They’re barreling towards a 4-12 season yet again, while Jameis is costing himself tens of millions in guarantees. Stay the hell away.

New England Patriots -6.5 over Los Angeles Chargers

(NE wins 21-13)

Both teams have a bye week heading in to Week 9, but here’s the important parts: What New England did after losing Don’t’a Hightower was an exceptional display of simple strategy. They played keep-away the whole game basically. The Patriots held the ball for 37 minutes against the Chargers who only had 23 minutes with the ball in hand.

Why is this important? Because while New England remains a touch-and-go bet overall because of how badly the lines are stacked against them, there’s no reason to give up hope on the Chargers. Melvin Gordon is having a quietly prolific season but is hurt. No matter what you want to qualify the Chargers as, they’re a smash mouth football team and they need their lead battering ram to invoke the style that they’re best at.

Anytime you see a little too much Branden Oliver, it’s time to get to live betting to hedge the Chargers. They should be better out of the bye week, and lost no respect from those who know a thing or two (or fifty) about betting on football.

New York Jets +6.5 over Atlanta Falcons

(ATL wins 25-20)

It’s easy to suggest that Atlanta struggled in the heavy downpour over the Meadowlands on Sunday, but it’s not like they’re playing that well even when they’re sheltered from the elements by their billion dollar stadium either. Nobody seems to have noticed the last few weeks.

For some dumb reason, the line on this game moved two whole points after opening at -4.5 for Atlanta. It was good then, and it was a lock at nearly a touchdown. The Jets had some problematic play calling in the second half which submarined their chances of scoring a real upset, but that’s not on the players. For whatever reason, the only team that’s really blown the Jets out of the water is Oakland and that was back in Week 2.

This is a team that embraces playing ugly, something that the Falcons simply don’t seem equipped to handle.

Houston Texans +6 over Seattle Seahawks

(SEA wins 41-38)

This was a [expletives removed by writer] game!!! The Houston Texans rallied behind an historic effort from DeShaun Watson that fell short because Russell Wilson is just so damn good at keeping hope alive. This was simply one of those games where whomever had the ball last was going to win.

Watson threw for 402 yards, led the team in rushing with 67 yards on just 8 carries and amassed 4 touchdowns in the loss. DeAndre Hopkins totaled 224 yards and a beautiful 72-yard score, while the Will Fuller rampage continued with his 125 yards and 2 touchdowns. In other words, there’s no slowing down the Texans, who have undressed an insane amount of teams this year since Watson’s ascension.

The good news for Houston is that they won’t have to face guys like Russell Wilson that often. Wilson is amassing a low-key MVP caliber season and the guy simply excels at winning football games while mitigating costly mistakes. Thanks to a generous head start, the Seahawks look like a prime playoff contender with a make-or-break date with the Rams in Week 15.

Both teams are surefire bet-on teams, especially considering how soft Houston’s schedule is. Beware of Seattle against monster lines, which they likely won’t have to deal with that much considering their next batch of home games include Washington, Atlanta and Philadelphia while they travel against softer lines to play Arizona, San Francisco and Jacksonville in the immediate future.

The Monday Night chaser is the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Denver Broncos as -7.0 favorites in a must-win game for both!