CFL Betting Recap - Week 11
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 5-0 SU in Week 11
Favorites went 4-1 ATS in Week 11
Road teams posted a 3-2 SU record in Week 11
Home teams posted a 3-2 ATS record in Week 11
The 'Over' went 3-2 in Week 11
Team Betting Notes
Toronto (4-6) continued their slide, dropping a pair of games in the past week. They lost Wednesday at home against the BC Lions (7-3), and then they fell 49-36 down the QEW in Hamilton (5-5). The Argonauts have dropped four in a row after a 4-2 start, and they have also failed to cover in each of the outings.
BC narrowly covered their road outing in Toronto Wednesday, improving to 8-2 ATS in 10 outings this season. After the low-scoring 16-13 victory, the 'under' has connected in three in a row for the Lions.
The Tiger Cats are a hard team to figure. They topped Toronto, but have won back-to-back games just once this season. That doesn't bode well for the second half of the home-and-home Sunday in Toronto.
Winnipeg (6-4) continued their upward ascent with a 28-25 road win at Saskatchewan (1-9). The Blue Bombers have won five in a row, although Sunday's three-point win marked the first time they haven't covered during the win streak. The 'over' was the third straight for the Blue Bombers. They have scored 28 or more points in each of the five victories.
The Roughriders have been improving, averaging 25.0 points per game over the past two, both covers. It is the first time all season Saskatchewan has covered back-to-back games this season. The 'over' has connected in three in a row for the Roughriders heading into the second half of the home-and-home with the Bombers Saturday night.
Calgary (8-1-1) won for the seventh consecutive game, topping Edmonton (5-5) by a 45-24 score in the latest installment of the Battle for Alberta. The Stampeders have covered in each of the past five games, and they're an impressive 8-2 ATS in 10 games this season. Their 'over' result was the first in five games for the Stamps.
The 'over' has connected in three in a row for the Eskimos heading into Saturday's rematch in Edmonton.
MONTREAL (3 - 7) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 3) - 9/9/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-3 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 9) at WINNIPEG (6 - 4) - 9/10/2016, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 113-84 ATS (+20.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-3 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (8 - 1 - 1) at EDMONTON (5 - 5) - 9/10/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
CALGARY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON (5 - 5) at TORONTO (4 - 6) - 9/11/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 8-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 7-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Montreal's last 23 games on the road
Montreal is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of British Columbia's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN vs. WINNIPEG
Saskatchewan is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games at home
CALGARY vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Calgary is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Edmonton is 3-12-1 SU in its last 16 games ,when playing Calgary
HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
Hamilton is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Hamilton is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Toronto is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
Montreal at British Columbia
Montreal: 3-11 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
British Columbia: 8-2 ATS in all lined games
CFL Betting Notes - Week 12
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The Toronto Argonauts pulled double duty in Week 11 of the CFL season with two games in six days. They got off to a rough start last Wednesday with 16-13 loss to British Columbia at home as 2½-point underdogs. Last Thursday night, Ottawa got past Montreal 19-14 while covering as a 2½-point favorite on the road.
In Sunday’s CFL action, Winnipeg kept its current winning streak alive by squeezing past Saskatchewan 28-25, but it could not cover against the spread as a four-point road favorite. In the first of two games on Monday’s Labor Day Holiday, Calgary ran past Edmonton 45-24 as a 6½-point home favorite followed by Hamilton’s 49-36 victory against Toronto as a 10-point favorite at home. Here is a look at this week’s lineup of games.
Friday, Sept. 9
Montreal Alouettes (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -9½
Total: 48½
Game Overview
Montreal is rapidly fading into the depths of the East Division standings with just one win in its last five games both straight-up and ATS. The Alouettes’ season scoring average of 20.5 points a game drops off to just 14.1 points over the course of their seven losses. Montreal quarterback Kevin Glenn has almost at many interceptions (11) as touchdown throws (13) this year prompting the team to turn to Rakeem Cato as its starter for Friday night.
The Lions remain a game and a half off the pace in the West Division with their fourth SU win in their last five games and they come into this interdivision matchup with a 6-1 record ATS in their last seven games. BC quarterback Jonathon Jennings put the ball up 31 times in last Wednesday’s win at Toronto and he completed 21 passes for 199 yards. He is now third in the CFL in total passing yards this season with 2,689.
Betting Trends
These two met in early August with BC coming away with a 38-18 victory as a two-point road favorite. The road team in this matchup has now won the last three meetings both SU and ATS while the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings.
Saturday, Sept. 10
Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-9 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -7½
Total: 52½
Game Overview
You got to give credit to the Roughriders for keeping their last two games close enough to cover in light of such a dismal season overall, but with just one win in 10 games they are now officially riding out the string in these next eight contests. Darian Durant continues to put up some big numbers with 399 yards passing and a completion rate of 76.6 percent on 47 passing attempts in the first game of this home-and-home, but Saskatchewan’s defense continues to show why it is the worst in the league in points allowed (347).
The Blue Bombers’ SU winning streak has reached five games and this last win was the first time they closed as actual favorites. Matt Nichols has made his way into the discussion for this season’s CFL Most Outstanding Player with how well he has thrown the ball during this current run. He went 27-for-39 in last week’s game against the Roughriders for 341 yards and a score.
Betting Trends
With last week’s win, the Blue Bombers have now won three of the last four meetings SU with the series tied 2-2 ATS. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings.
Calgary Stampeders (8-1-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (5-5 SU, 3-6-1)
Point-spread: Calgary – 2½
Total: 55
Game Overview
Calgary can really take a big step towards the West Division title with a sweep in this home-and-home matchup. The Stampers’ current SU winning streak now stands at seven games and they have covered ATS in their last five games on the strength of a combined margin of victory of 82 points. Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 380 yards and two scores and Jerome Messam added 110 yards and two more scores on the ground in last week’s win.
The Eskimos took a big step backwards with last week’s loss after stringing together a trio of SU wins in their previous three games. Mike Reilly still leads the CFL in total passing yards with 3,315 and he also leads the way in touchdown throws with 17. Most of Edmonton’s problems this season have been on the other side of the ball with a defense that is allowing an average of 29.2 points a game.
Betting Trends
Calgary beat Edmonton SU for the first time in the past four matchups with last week’s win and it is now 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The total has now gone OVER in four of the last seven games between these two division rivals.
Sunday, Sept. 11
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -4
Total: 56
Game Overview
This home-and-home series features two teams headed in opposite directions. Fortunately for Tiger-Cats’ fans their team has some upward momentum at 5-5 with two wins in their last three games both SU and ATS. Zach Collaros continued to shake off the rust from a long layoff with 359 yards passing and four touchdown strikes in Monday’s win while completing 28-of-35 passing attempts.
Toronto is clearly headed in the wrong direction with four losses in a row both SU and ATS. It returns home for Sunday’s game with an unexpected 1-5 record at brand new BMO Field this season both SU and ATS. Ricky Ray still put on a show in Monday’s loss with 386 yards passing and three scores behind a completion rate of 75.6 percent on 41 attempts.
Betting Trends
Hamilton ran its record to 11-1 ATS against Toronto in the last 12 meetings. The Tiger-Cats have also covered ATS in the last eight games of this division tilt and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.
StatFox Super Situations
SASKATCHEWAN at WINNIPEG
Play On - Any team vs the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) after 6 or more consecutive straight up losses, in weeks 10 through 15 21-12 since 1997. ( 63.6% | 0.0 units )
SASKATCHEWAN at WINNIPEG
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (WINNIPEG) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team 40-9 since 1997. ( 81.6% | 30.1 units )
HAMILTON at TORONTO
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (TORONTO) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season 22-3 since 1997. ( 88.0% | 18.7 units )