Teddy's Tidbits: Capper Betting Notes on the AFC
By Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy’s weekly look at the NFL. Teddy spends every Sunday typing furiously at his laptop as he watches the games, giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have.
This week: AFC tidbits from around the league from Week 6 of the NFL season.
Buffalo Bills:
This offensive line is a penalty waiting to happen. Holding and false starts seem to plague every drive. They had nine false starts last week and a holding and a false start on third down in the red zone on their first drive. Let’s not forget that four of the Bills five starting linemen earned their first-career start in 2009, the single most inexperienced unit in the NFL.
It's only going to get worse if Ryan Fitzpatrick is the quarterback for any length of time. Fitzpatrick is a miserable quarterback, with no arm strength to throw downfield, a true bottom-tier starter. This defense has been unable to stop the run since Week 3, when the injuries started to pile up. Miami, Cleveland and now the Jets are simply lining up and running the ball down Buffalo's throat.
Don’t be fooled by this overtime win – the Bills aren’t about to turn their season around.
Cleveland Browns:
Josh Cribbs is the most electric special teams playmaker in the NFL, making something happen with the return game on a weekly basis. Why can't Eric Mangini and company find ways to get him more involved in the offense?
Considering the fact that this receiving corps has suffered from the dropsies all year, one would think that they'd give somebody else a chance. Cribbs got a handful of snaps in the wildcat formation, but not nearly enough.
The only receiver making any plays at all is the rookie Mohammed Massaquoi. When you score four offensive touchdowns in your first six games (one of which came in garbage time), there’s clearly something wrong.
This pass rush is absolutely bottom tier and unable to generate any pressure whatsoever. When there's no pass rush, there's no pass defense: 417 yards allowed on 23 Steelers completions.
Kansas City Chiefs:
The timing and the rhythm of the passing game have been terrible. Kansas City just demoted their wide receivers coach this past week because this receiving corps hasn't improved since the start of the season. We’re seeing very poor route running and the entire passing game seems just a tick or two off. Every receiver except for Dwayne Bowe is a complete non-factor.
To make matters worse, Larry Johnson has the lowest yards-per-carry average of any starting running back in the league, by a wide margin. The hidden factor in both offensive weaknesses is, of course, a truly bottom-tier offensive line. And that line is most assuredly worse without starting left tackle Brandon Albert.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
Mike Sims-Walker is the most impactful WR in the league that no one is talking about. Tory Holt is playing mentor for this young receiving corps, and we're seeing improvement from week to week in the Jags’ passing game - even on a day when David Garrard threw more than his fair share of bad passes. Let’s not forget that Garrard entered the game as the NFL's all-time career leader in fewest interceptions per pass attempt.
The defense responded well in the second half, allowing only one first down until the two-minute warning. But with the game on the line on the final drive, the 'D' completely collapsed - dropped interceptions, poor tackling and big plays galore - allowing a team without any healthy wide receivers to march down the field for the game-tying score. With a 33-13 first down advantage, you’re supposed to at least sniff a pointspread cover.
Oakland Raiders:
Shane Lechler is one punter capable of covering pointspreads when Oakland is likely to be catching double digits repeatedly in the weeks to come. Lechler flips the field with regularity when the Raiders are pinned deep and he's a master at dropping the ball inside the 20, forcing their opponents into long drives. He averaged 51 yards per punt today with only one touchback on seven punts.
These receivers are just awful. JaMarcus Russell put the ball right in Louis Murphy's hands, but Murphy tipped it up and it was picked off. That being said, Murphy's blocking on Zack Miller's 86 yard catch-n-run touchdown was amazing, a bit of redemption.
There was a completely different level of intensity from this defense today, putting all kinds of pressure at the line of scrimmage. In fact, it was the first time in three years that Oakland’s D didn’t allow a touchdown.
Baltimore Ravens:
This pass defense is getting worse, not better. The Vikings had open receivers running downfield nearly every time that Favre dropped back to pass. And, after 39 consecutive games without allowing a 100 yard rusher, the Ravens have now allowed one in consecutive weeks.
The Ravens’ impressive fourth-quarter comeback overshadowed some big issues that Baltimore has with its receivers right now. Derrick Mason used to have some of the best hands in the NFL. Sunday, he was wide open downfield for an 85 yard touchdown, but let the ball bounce off his fingertips. He had another drop on a key third down in the second half.
Let's not forget that Baltimore lost the game at New England on a Mark Clayton drop. Kelley Washington had a key drop here as well. But with the game on the line, these receivers really stepped up, in large part due to absolute excellence from Joe Flacco during crunch time once again.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
Bettors seem to forget how mediocre the Steelers were on offense for much of the regular season last year, before they got hot down the stretch and went on to win the Super Bowl. The Steelers same weaknesses from '08 are still on full display in '09, most notably their complete inability to run the football.
But Ben Roethlisberger continues to hold the ball for an eternity, then thread the needle to find a receiver downfield. If I was offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, I'd be throwing on nearly every down.
We're talking about a team with only one pointspread cover all year, and even in that game (San Diego), they did their best to blow the cover in the fourth quarter.
Tennessee Titans:
Tennessee has looked like a “quit” team for the last three weeks now. The Titans haven't covered a pointspread since their opening night loss at Pittsburgh. This secondary is beyond horrible without both starting cornerbacks, even on a snowy day in Foxboro.
Quit teams tend to fumble a lot and they don't recover those fumbles. Quit teams don't get third-down stops or force many three-and-outs. Quit teams can't stop the run, giving up chunks of yardage on the ground. Quit teams tend not to connect on passes downfield - they're always a smidgeon off. Quit teams tend to commit poor effort and poor execution penalties. The Titans shared every one of those characteristics Sunday.