Capping the Noles: A Bet by Bet Schedule Analysis
By The Prez
Last year the ‘Noles finished 9-4 (5-3 in the conference), capped by a 42-13 win over Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl. It was the first time FSU finished with more than eight wins since 2004. Nine victories was once a given for Bowden's Seminoles, who hit that mark in 17 of 18 seasons before tailing off in following seasons.
QB Chris Ponder is the key player this year. He gave FSU a running threat QB last year that the school hasn’t had since Charlie Ward. He needs to work on his consistency as a passer, however. The Seminoles also need to find a young receiver who can step up, but the defense should be tough.
FSU's 2009 schedule (times remain in flux):
September 7 vs. Miami (FL)
September 12 vs. Jacksonville State
September 19 at Brigham Young
September 26 vs. South Florida
October 3 at Boston College
October 10 vs. Georgia Tech
October 22 at North Carolina
October 31 vs. North Carolina State
November 7 at Clemson
November 14 at Wake Forest
November 21 vs. Maryland
November 28 at Florida
FSU’s over/under for regular-season wins is eight and I think the Seminoles exceed that by one. That game with Miami was taken off Labor Day for a few years but is back on the holiday this year, although neither team likes playing the other that early.
It should be close. FSU pulled out a 41-39 win last year in South Florida, but being at home should be the difference for FSU. The Sept. 12 game with Jacksonville State is obviously a lock victory, but that Sept. 19 matchup at BYU will be a loss. Provo is one of the toughest places to play, and the Cougars are difficult to plan for.
It helps that FSU has such an easy game beforehand. The Seminoles will finish September at 3-1 by beating South Florida. USF has been angling to play Florida and Florida State for years and this is the Bulls’ first chance (they also play Miami again this year).
As for October, I look for another 3-1 record in that month. Boston College will take a big step back this year in breaking in yet another QB, while North Carolina State is getting better but won’t win in Tallahassee quite yet. Let’s just say the Seminoles split against ACC contenders Georgia Tech and rising North Carolina.
This leads to November, and yes, another 3-1 month. Wake Forest and Clemson seem in rebuilding mode. Maryland lost by 34 at home to FSU last year, so there’s no real reason for that outcome to change in Tallahassee this year. That leaves the big tilt with Florida in the season finale. Hard to see FSU breaking through against a Gator team that could very well be unbeaten and in line for another BCS title shot. The Seminoles have lost eight straight games in that series.
So that’s 9-3 for FSU overall and 6-2 in the conference. That should be enough to win the ACC Atlantic this season and earn Bowden and Co. a trip to the ACC Championship Game for the first time since the inaugural game in 2005. FSU is +250 to win the ACC on BetUS and probably will see either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech in Tampa next December.