CFL Betting Notes - Week 12
By David Schwab
British Columbia’s 28-6 rout of Toronto as a 7½-point home favorite last Saturday and Saskatchewan’s 45-23 pounding of Winnipeg as a six-point road underdog completed the two-game sweep for these teams in the CFL’s home-and-home series over the past two weeks. It was a complete reversal of fortunes for two other teams as they successfully avenged a previous loss. Last Friday night, Calgary smothered Edmonton 30-20 as a three-point road favorite, and on Sunday, Montreal ran roughshod over Hamilton 43-13 as a five-point home favorite.
The following is brief preview of this week’s games with the opening point spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by TheGreek.com.
Friday, September 16
Edmonton Eskimos at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-6½) Over/Under (51)
Edmonton’s loss last week dropped it one game in back of Calgary in the West Division with a 6-4 record straight-up (5-4 against the spread). The Eskimos are 3-2 on the road both SU and ATS and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of their last nine games. Hamilton now trails Winnipeg by two games in the East with a 5-5 SU record. The Tiger-Cats are 4-1 at home SU and 3-2 ATS and the total has gone ‘over’ in six of their last seven games.
These two teams met in Week 2 with the Eskimos rolling to a 28-10 victory as 1½-point home favorites. The total stayed ‘under’ the 53-point line. Edmonton is just 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the last 10 games. Hamilton is ranked second in the league in scoring with 260 points, which is 51 points more than the Eskimos.
Saturday, September 17
Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-8) Over/Under (51)
Toronto’s season is fading into oblivion with just one win in its last nine games. It is 4-6 ATS and the total has been evenly split at 5-5. Saskatchewan’s two straight wins over Winnipeg moved it to 3-7 SU on the year (3-7 ATS). It is just 1-4 SU at home this season (1-4 ATS) and the total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last eight games.
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The good news for the Argonauts is that their last win was a 24-18 victory over the Roughriders as three-point home favorites. The total stayed ‘under’ the 53½-point line. They are actually 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two and the total has stayed ‘under’ in the last three games. Toronto is ranked last in the CFL in points allowed; giving up an average of 29.1 points a game.
British Columbia Lions at Calgary Stampeders (-6) Over/Under (50½)
BC is currently in third-place in the East with an overall record of 4-6 SU (5-5 ATS). It is 2-3 SU on the road (3-2 ATS) and the total has stayed ‘under’ in its last six games. Calgary is 7-3 SU on the year and 5-4 ATS. It is 2-3 SU and ATS at home and the total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last four games.
The Stampeders squeaked out a 34-32 victory over the Lions in Week 2 as 2½-point road underdogs. The total went way ‘over’ the 54-point line. BC is now just 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four games. Calgary leads the league in total time of possession, holding the ball for an average of 34:13 minutes a game.
Sunday, September 18
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes (-8½) Over/Under (52½)
Winnipeg still leads Montreal by a game in the East with an overall record of 7-3 SU (7-3 ATS). It is 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six games. The Alouettes are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS overall. They are 2-3 SU and ATS on the road and the total has gone ‘over’ in four of their last six games.
Montreal has won the last four games of this series SU including a three-game sweep last season. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last five meetings overall and in six of the last nine games played in Montreal. Alouettes’ quarterback Anthony Calvillo threw for 421 yards last week against Hamilton and leads the league in total passing yards with 3,100.
CFL Week 12 Betting Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Edmonton Eskimos at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-5, 50.5)
Both the Eskimos and Tiger-Cats had a brutal reality check last week.
Edmonton, plagued with injuries, must find a way to stop its skid after a strong start, while the Tiger-Cats need to rebuild their confidence after being mauled by the Alouettes.
To fill a gap in the secondary, Hamilton will move CB Ryan Hinds to safety and Jason Shivers will take the spot of all-star LB Markeith Knowlton, who missed practices this week and probably won’t play this Friday.
On offense, expect to see Aaron Kelly taking over for rookie Bakari Grant, who dropped a few easy passes against the Alouettes last Sunday. Center Marwan Hage is doubtful and Mark Dewitt should replace him for a second week in a row .
While the Eskimos also have a long injury list, keep in mind the Tiger-Cats will be playing their third game in eleven days and fatigue is expected. But that shouldn’t be enough for the Eskimos to pick up a win in Hamilton, where they’ve gone just 1-8 since 2003. Their last win at Ivor Wynne Stadium goes back to 2008.
Pick: Hamilton
Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7, 50.5)
The return of Andy Fantuz didn’t produce a bang but the Roughriders kept rolling nonetheless. Despite resting for a few days and missing practices, MLB Barrin Simpson will play. Same goes for RB Wes Cates, who was also granted a day off.
Toronto's QB change didn’t turn things around, even if Steven Jyles has nowhere to go but up after Cleo Lemon. The acquisition of WR Preachae Rodriguez will bring more vertical plays but that isn’t enough to make this team competitive.
In the past, Jyles has proven inconsistent and is with his fourth team in six seasons. The Argos offense is the worst in the league with an average of 19.8 points per game while their defense is giving up 28 points per game.
Another revealing stat: The Argos have scored only 12 touchdowns in 25 trips inside their opponents’ 20-yard line. Plus, they haven’t scored a TD since the third quarter of their game against Saskatchewan on August 18. That’s more than 140 minutes of football without a major.
Pick: Saskatchewan
B.C. Lions at Calgary Stampeders (-4.5, 50.5)
The Lions have had a terrible start but they can put themselves back in the thick of a pennant race by playing six of their next eight games against West Division rivals.
Geroy Simon, the second-best receiver in the CFL behind Montreal’s Jamal Richardson, has 812 yards and is heading towards a ninth-consecutive 1,000-yard season.
The Stampeders offense, led by Henry Burris, can still light up the scoreboard even without receiver Jabari Arthur (thigh) and it will be interesting to see how it fares against a stout B.C. defense that gave up no touchdowns and only 23 points in its last three games.
Besides Arthur, linebacker Brandon Isaac (groin) and DE Charleston Hughes should be out of the Stampeders lineup. The good news for Calgary is that LBs Juwan Simpson and Malik Jackson should play after nursing injuries.
The Leos defense has multiple threats up front and a strong secondary, but most importantly features MLB Solomon Elimimian, who can already be considered the best defensive player of the CFL. He leads the league with 62 tackles.
Also keep in mind that the Lions won in their two visits to McMahon Stadium last season.
Pick: B.C.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes (-7.5, 52.5)
Injuries are taking their toll on the Blue Bombers, who will have to go on without MLB Joe Lobendahn (knee) for the remainder of the season. Quarterback Buck Pierce (ribs) could miss Sunday’s game, which would bring substitute Alex Brink under center. Young receiver Kito Poblah (shoulder) won’t play either against the Alouettes.
Those injuries aren’t the only concerns for Winnipeg, which just can’t seem to run the ball and has coughed up 10 turnovers in the past two games. Those losses of possession resulted in a 72-30 stomping in the Banjo Bowl - a cold shower for Winnipeg fans who love to brag about “Swaggerville”.
The Alouettes seem back on track after a few bumps, despite the numerous casualties on defense. Although, Seth Williams and Marc-Olivier Brouillette, both off the nine-game injured list, have stepped up nicely.
Pick: Montreal
CFL Week 12
Edmonton (6-4) @ Hamilton (7-3) - TiCats are 4-0 at home, averaging 37 ppg- they lost 28-10 (+1.5) at Edmonton way back in Week 2, when Eskimos were on way to 5-0 start. Eskimos have now lost four of last five games, scoring 20 or less points in each loss- they scored 24+ in all six of their wins. All four Eskimo losses are by 10+ points. Eight of last nine Edmonton games stayed under the total; six of last seven Hamilton games went over. .
Toronto (2-8) @ Saskatchewan (3-7) - Roughriders (+2.5) lost 24-18 at Toronto three weeks ago, at which point they were 1-7; a bye, coaching change and two upset wins over Winnipeg later, and Riders are hoping to make playoffs again. Argos lost last five road games, by 6-23-1-5-22 points- they're 3-3 as a road dog. Saskatchewan is favored this week for first time since its season opener. Last three Toronto games and six of last eight Roughrider games stayed under the total.
BC Lions (4-6) @ Calgary (7-3) - Stampeders (+1.5) upset Lions 34-32 back in Week 2, despite turning ball over five times; Calgary won five of last six games- they're 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 12-7 points. Lions won four of last five games after 0-5 start; they allowed just 7.7 ppg in winning last three games. Calgary is 6-0 when it scores more than 21 points, 1-3 when it doesn't. Last six BC games stayed under the total. Lions allowed 16 or less points in their wins, 25+ in their losses.
Winnipeg (7-3) @ Montreal (6-4) - Dogs are 8-2 against spread this year in Winnipeg games; Bombers got whacked 27-7/45-23 in last two games by Saskatchewan squad that had been 1-7. Winnipeg won three of four road games- they're 3-0 as a road underdog. Alouettes won four of their five home games- they're 3-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 4-23-23-30 points. Under is 7-3 in Winnipeg games, 3-1 on road; over is 7-3 in Montreal games, but only 2-3 at home.
EDMONTON (6 - 4) at HAMILTON (5 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (2 - 8) at SASKATCHEWAN (3 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 87-56 ATS (+25.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA (4 - 6) at CALGARY (7 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (7 - 3) at MONTREAL (6 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON vs. HAMILTON
Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Edmonton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
TORONTO vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Toronto is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games at home
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
British Columbia is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,when playing on the road against Calgary
British Columbia is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
Winnipeg is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games