CFL Betting Recap - Week 12
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 12
Favorites went 2-1-1 ATS in Week 12
Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 12
Home teams posted a 2-1-1 ATS record in Week 12
The 'Over' went 3-1 in Week 12
Team Betting Notes
Toronto (5-6) pushed aside Hamilton (5-6) by a 33-21 count to snap a four-game losing streak. They also pumped the brakes on an 0-4 ATS slide. The 'over' is 4-2 in the past six games for the Argos heading into Winnipeg (7-4) against the red-hot Blue Bombers.
The Bombers have won six straight games and they're 4-1-1 ATS over their past six outings. The two sides met Aug. 12 in Toronto with Winnipeg doubling up the Argos 34-17 while the 'over' connected. The over is 3-1 in the past four for Winnipeg.
Calgary (9-1-1) picked up their eight straight victory, completing the home-and-home sweep against fizzling Edmonton (5-6). The 'over' has connected in back-to-back games for the Stampeders for just the second time this season. One slightly alarming trends for the Stamps is that their defense has allowed 24 or more points in three straiht outings after allowing more than 22 points in just two of their first eight games.
Montreal (3-8 ) was dumped at BC Lions (8-3) in a tale of two teams. The Alouettes failed to cover for a third straight games, and they're 1-5 ATS over the past six outings. For the Lions, they have covered three in a row and they're 7-1 ATS over the past eight and 9-2 ATS in their 11 games overall this season.
MONTREAL (3 - 8 ) at HAMILTON (5 - 6) - 9/16/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 4-3 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (5 - 6) at WINNIPEG (7 - 4) - 9/17/2016, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA (5 - 4 - 1) at CALGARY (9 - 1 - 1) - 9/17/2016, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 122-88 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
CALGARY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
OTTAWA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-1 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (5 - 6) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 10) - 9/18/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 124-91 ATS (+23.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 114-84 ATS (+21.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 7-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL vs. HAMILTON
Montreal is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Montreal is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Hamilton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto's last 16 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
OTTAWA vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games
Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Ottawa
EDMONTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Edmonton's last 14 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Edmonton is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
CFL Betting Notes - Week 13
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
It has been a tough go of things betting home favorites in the CFL this season with a 34.4 winning percentage, but British Columbia was able to buck that trend to get Week 12 started with a 38-27 victory against Montreal on Friday night as a nine-point favorite at home.
The road team covered in the next two games when Saskatchewan lost to Winnipeg 17-10 as an eight point underdog and Calgary pulled off the home-and-home sweep over Edmonton with a 34-28 victory as a 2½-point favorite.
The week’s action closed things out on Sunday with Toronto stunning Hamilton 33-21 as a 6 ½-point home underdog to climb right back into the East Division title race.
Here is a look at all four CFL matchups in Week 13.
Friday, Sept. 16
Montreal Alouettes (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -9
Total: 53
Game Overview
Montreal is faced with an almost do-or-die situation on Friday night after dropping five of its last six games both straight-up and against the spread. The Alouettes woes on offense improved a bit with the changeover to Rakeem Cato at quarterback, but they were playing from behind all game long against BC after going down 15-3 at the end of the first quarter. Cato finished the game with 255 yards passing and one touchdown.
The Tiger-Cats have been taking a start and stop approach to this entire season at 5-6 and they have now followed up a win with a loss (both SU and ATS) over their past four contests. This lack of consistency was evident on Sunday. Following a scoreless opening quarter, Hamilton posted 20 points to take a four-point lead into halftime, but it was once again shutout in the third quarter and held to one point in the fourth.
Betting Trends
Hamilton rolled to a 31-7 victory in the first meeting this season as a two-point road favorite on July 15. It has now won four of the last six games against Montreal both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in the last four games of this East Division tilt.
Saturday, Sept. 17
Toronto Argonauts (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -7
Total: 50
Game Overview
The saga of Ricky Ray’s multiple string of injuries over the past few seasons continued with a fractured rib in Week 11 to pave the way for Dan LeFevour to make his first CFL start in almost two years in last week’s game against the Tiger-Cats. There were no major signs of rust in his performance and he ended the day completing 75 percent of his 36 passes for 329 yards and a score. Kevin Elliott led the way with six catches for 91 yards.
The Blue Bombers keep cruising along with six SU wins in a row, but for the second week they have failed to cover as favorites after winning the first four games as underdogs. None the less, they are now third place in the West behind Calgary and BC. During this impressive run, Winnipeg has averaged 29.6 points a game, while holding its opponents to a total of just 103 points.
Betting Trends
This will be the second meeting this season with Winnipeg holding the early edge as a result of a 34-17 victory on Aug. 12 as a four-point road underdog. Toronto had won the previous three meetings both SU and ATS and the total has now gone OVER in four of the last six meetings in this interdivision clash.
Ottawa RedBlacks (5-4-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (9-1-1 SU, 9-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -10
Total: 53
Game Overview
The RedBlacks return to action following last week’s bye and they currently hold a game and half lead over Hamilton and Toronto in the East. Even with a 19-14 win against Montreal in Week 11 as 2½-point road favorites, they are still 2-4 SU in their last six games and a costly 1-5 ATS over this same stretch. Trevor Harris has thrown for 2,133 yards and 11 touchdowns while missing some time to injuries and Chris Williams leads the team in receiving yards with 991.
Calgary has the longest SU winning streak in the CFL at eight games and following its home-and-home sweep of Edmonton, it has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six outings. Things continue to click on both sides of the ball for the CFL’s most complete team. With 338 passing yards and three touchdown throws in last week’s win, Bo Levi Mitchell has now thrown for 3,575 yards and a league-high 20 touchdowns in his first 11 games.
Betting Trends
The Stampeders have a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings after battling Ottawa to a SU 26-26 tie earlier this season as slight 1½-point road underdogs. The total ended as a PUSH in that game after going OVER in three of the previous four matchups.
Sunday, Sept. 18
Edmonton Eskimos (5-6 SU, 3-7-1) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -4½
Total: 55½
Game Overview
The defending champs have once again fallen below .500 with last week’s loss and the Eskimos have now failed to cover in their last three games. The total went OVER 55 in the Week 12 loss to Calgary and it has gone OVER in Edmonton’s last four contests. This team continues to find the end zone at a clip of 29.5 points a game, but the Eskimos’ defense has been torched all season long with a matching points-allowed average of 29.6.
The Roughriders would probably opt to call it quits right now if given the chance, but they have been a decent betting team lately with three covers in a row. The one bright spot has been the play of veteran quarterback Darian Durant in one losing cause after another. Last week against Calgary, he completed 64 percent of his passes for 283 yards and a touchdown. On the year, he is fifth in the CFL in total passing yards with 2,476.
Betting Trends
This will be the third meeting this season in this bitter West Division rivalry. Edmonton has won the first two games SU, but the Roughriders have been able to cover as heavy road underdogs each time. Going back over the past 10 meetings, the Eskimos have an 8-2 edge SU with a 7-3 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in the last three games.
CFL Week 13
Montreal (3-8 ) @ Hamilton (5-6) – Not only is Montreal 3-8, they haven’t covered any of their losses, with 7 of 8 losses by 11+ points. Alouettes are 1-3 as road underdogs, with only win at Ottawa. Three of last four Montreal games went over total. Hamilton lost four of last six games, but scored 49-53 points in winning its last two home games; they’re 2-2 as home favorites. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Hamilton games. TiCats won four of last five series games, whacking Als 31-7 in Montreal in first meeting July 15. Alouettes’ win here LY snapped their 10-game skid in Hamilton. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.
Toronto (5-6) @ Winnipeg (7-4) – Blue Bombers won last six games, beating lowly Saskatchewan by total of 10 points last two weeks; Winnipeg is 6-0 when it scores 28+ points, 1-4 when it doesn’t. Toronto held six of 10 foes to 21 or less points; they snapped 4-game skid by upsetting TiCats at home LW. Argos are 3-1 as road dog with three SU wins; their only road loss was 49-36 at Hamilton two weeks ago. Argonauts are 10-3 in last 13 series games, but lost 34-17 (-4) at home in first meeting August 12. Argos won five of last six visits here. Under is 10-1-2 in Bombers’ last 13 home games.
Ottawa (5-4-1) @ Calgary (9-1-1) – Calgary won its last eight games since teams tied 26-all in first meeting July 8; Stampeders are 3-1-1 in series with only loss 29-26 in OT here LY. Over is 3-1-1 in series. Calgary needed OT to win at Edmonton LW, their third OT game of season- they covered four of last five as a home favorite. Ottawa lost four of last six games, with four of last five staying under total. RedBlacks are 4-1 SU on road; they covered only game as an underdog this season, in opener at Edmonton. Stamps are 13-3 vs spread in last 16 games; Ottawa covered seven of last eight road games.
Edmonton (5-6) @ Saskatchewan (1-10) – Eskimos are 8-1 in last nine series games, winning 39-36 OT/33-25 in two meetings this year (Saskatchewan 2-0 vs spread). Edmonton won three of last four visits here; they lost to provincial rival Calgary last two weeks, allowing 79 points. Last four Edmonton games went over total. Eskimos are 2-2 SU on road, 2-0 as road favorites. Roughriders lost last seven games but covered last three, with last three losses all by 8 or less points. Saskatchewan is 5-4 as an underdog this year, 2-1 at home. Over is 8-2 in Riders’ last 10 home games.
Armadillosports.com
StatFox Super Situations
EDMONTON at SASKATCHEWAN
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season 37-11 since 1997. ( 77.1% | 24.9 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
EDMONTON at SASKATCHEWAN
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) after 5 or more consecutive straight up losses, in weeks 10 through 15 26-11 since 1997. ( 70.3% | 0.0 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | 0.0 units )
TORONTO at WINNIPEG
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (WINNIPEG) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team 40-10 since 1997. ( 80.0% | 29.0 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
Toronto at Winnipeg
Toronto: 1-7 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Winnipeg: 4-1 ATS in non-conference games
Ottawa at Calgary
Ottawa: 3-13 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Calgary: 7-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Edmonton at Saskatchewan
Edmonton: 1-7 ATS in games played on turf
Saskatchewan: 44-23 ATS as a home underdog