CFL Week 14 Odds and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+6.5, 49.5)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are dealing with injuries at key positions. Quarterback Buck Pierce, who has been nursing a rib injury, will be out of this showdown for first place in the East, leaving the starting job to Alex Brink.
That could prove to be a fatal blow to any hope the Bombers had in winning their division. The hiring of journeyman Michael Bishop is a clear sign that all is not well in Swaggerville. Of course we must also mention the loss of both starting RB Fred Reid and Carl Volny for the remainder of the season, weakening considerably their offense. On defense, Winnipeg will be without DT Doug Brown.
The Alouettes had better news this week when it was announced that Anthony Calvillo didn’t suffer a concussion after the brutal hit he took last Friday in Edmonton. Wideout Kerry Watkins will be back in the lineup for Montreal, giving Calvillo another option to go deep. On defense, Montreal still has a number of injuries but the players who were promoted as starters - Seth Williams, Greg Laybourne, Jeff Hecht and Marc-O Brouillette - have no reason to be ashamed of their play so far.
Pick: Montreal
Edmonton Eskimos at B.C. Lions (-5.5, 49)
The Lions will be back at their newly-renovated B.C. Place after an 18-month exile and with more than 41,000 spectators on hand, it should be quite an explosive welcome.
B.C. has won five in a row and it’s no surprise that after a terrible 0-5 start that this club is seen as a heavy favorite to participate as West division representative in the 99th Grey Cup at B.C. Place.
Lions quarterback Travis Lulay is showing poise and confidence, appearing more and more like one of the best quarterbacks in the CFL. He’s developing some great chemistry with receivers Geroy Simon and Arland Bruce.
The Eskimos are much healthier than they were when they were hammered 36-1 by the Lions earlier this season, but while the score shouldn’t be that lopsided, the end result in the standings should be the same.
Also note that veteran kicker Paul McCallum, the dean of active players in the CFL, has hit 24 consecutive field goals. He only needs four more to tie the all-time record established by former Roughrider Dave Ridgeway.
Pick: B.C.
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Calgary Stampeders (-6, 55.5)
These teams need some major defensive help. The Roughriders gave up 42 points against the Lions last week while the Stamps were mauled for 55 points by the Tiger-Cats in the second Touchdown Atlantic Classic played in Moncton.
Saskatchewan’s lack of depth has been evident from the start of the 2011 season, but the collapse of the Stampeders over the last few weeks is stunning. Calgary gave up 142 points in its last four games, three of which turned out to be losses.
Coach John Hufnagel has announced that veteran running back Joffrey Reynolds will be a healthy scratch for the second straight game. Reynolds is having one of the worst seasons of his career with an average of only 4.8 yards per carry.
In front of their fans in Calgary, against a Riders team that can’t carry the “Miller effect” on forever, the Stampeders have a great opportunity to prove they can contend in the West.
But they must improve on their turnover ratio (minus-9) and penalties (1169 yards, the worst record in the CFL). The Riders will likely be without slotback Andy Fantuz (right ankle) and WR Dallas Baker (concussion).
Pick: Calgary
Hamilton Tiger Cats at Toronto Argonauts (+4, 54)
The Argos may have pitched an upset 25-24 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but they have lots of work to do.
Their front seven had its best game of the season against Winnipeg with four sacks and 13 tackles. Ricky Foley, who was chosen Canadian Player of the Week, had six of those tackles plus a pair of sacks. It will take another stellar performance on defense if Toronto has any hope against Hamilton.
Meanwhile, the Tiger-Cats are coming back from the Maritimes with renewed confidence after a huge win against the Stampeders. The bottom line is that Hamilton has a much better team with much more speed than the Argos.
The secondary remains suspect at best but the acquisition of DB Milt Collins from Calgary should fill a big hole. Collins will replace Ryan Hinds at safety against the Argos. The Tiger-Cats have only managed six interceptions in 12 games and are dead last in the league with four turnovers.
Pick: Hamilton
CFL Betting Notes - Week 14
By David Schwab
The underdogs were out in full force last week in the CFL as not only did all four ‘dogs cover against the spread, they each won their game straight up as well. Montreal got the ball rolling last Friday as a one-point road underdog with a 34-21 victory over Edmonton. In the first of a Saturday double-header, British Columbia rolled over Saskatchewan 42-5 as a 1½-point road underdog. Toronto then shocked Winnipeg 25-24 as a three-point home underdog to pick-up just its third win of the year. Hamilton completed the sweep this past Sunday with a 55-36 rout of Calgary as a one-point home dog.
The following is brief preview of this week’s games along with the opening point spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.com.
Friday, September 30
Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (OFF) Over/Under (OFF)
Montreal’s win last Friday moved it just one game back in the East Division with an overall record of 7-5 SU (6-6 ATS). It is 3-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in two of its last three games. Winnipeg is feeling the heat in the East at 8-4 SU (8-4 ATS) with losses in two of its last three games. It is 4-2 SU and ATS at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its 12 games this year.
The Alouettes dropped a 25-23 decision to the Blue Bombers earlier in the season as 7½-point home favorites. They are 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings, but just 2-4 ATS in the last six. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last two games. Both starting quarterbacks, Anthony Calvillo for Montreal and Buck Pierce for Winnipeg, are listed as questionable for Friday’s game so keep an eye on the lines as the week progresses.
Edmonton Eskimos at British Columbia Lions (-5½) Over/Under (48½)
Despite last week’s loss, Edmonton is still tied for first-place in the West Division with a 7-5 SU record (6-6 ATS). It is 4-2 SU and ATS on the road this year and the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its last seven games. BC’s five-game winning streak has it just one-game back in the West as 6-6 SU (7-5 ATS). It is 2-3 SU and ATS at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in its last seven games.
These two teams split their first two games this season with the Eskimos winning 33-17 as 2½-point home favorites in Week 3 and the Lions returning the favor with a 36-1 romp as 5½-point road underdogs. The total stayed ‘under’ in both games. BC and Edmonton are ranked one and two in the CFL in points allowed as both defenses are giving up less than23 points a game.
Saturday, October 1
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Calgary Stampeders (-6) Over/Under (55)
Saskatchewan has fallen two games back in the playoff chase in the West with an overall record of 4-8 SU (4-7 ATS). It is 2-3 SU and ATS on the road and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games. Calgary is tied for the lead in the West at 7-5 SU (6-6 ATS), but is just 2-4 SU and ATS at home this season. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games.
The Stampeders have already won the first two games of this season’s four game series both SU and ATS. They are now 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the six games. Saskatchewan’s offense is averaging 22.3 points a game, while Calgary’s is averaging 24. Defensively, the Roughriders are giving up an average of 27.5 points a game and the Stampeders are giving up 26.4.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-3½) at Toronto Argonauts Over/Under (54)
Hamilton is two games back in the East at 6-6 SU (6-6 ATS). It is just 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) on the road this year and the total has gone ‘over’ in eight of its last nine games. Toronto is still in the playoff hunt at 3-9 SU (5-7 ATS) but cannot afford any more losses in the division. It is 2-3 SU and ATS at home this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last five games overall.
The Tiger-Cats have won five of the last six meetings SU including a 37-32 victory as 7½-point home favorites earlier this season. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the last nine meetings. Both teams rank at the bottom of the league in points allowed this season as each is giving up over 28 points a game.
Friday, September 30
MONTREAL (7 - 5) at WINNIPEG (8 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-4 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (7 - 5) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (6 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-4 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-4 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, October 1
SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 8) at CALGARY (7 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 102-64 ATS (+31.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-57 ATS (+25.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-4 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON (6 - 6) at TORONTO (3 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 6-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL vs. WINNIPEG
Montreal is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 13-4-2 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games at home
EDMONTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
CFL Week 14
Montreal (7-5) @ Winnipeg (8-4) - Bomber QB Pierce is out here, bad news for Winnipeg squad that is 4-2 at home, losing by point to Calgary and 22 to Saskatchewan. Bombers are 6-1 vs spread as underdogs, 2-1 at home. Alouettes are 4-5 in last nine games after 3-0 start; they're 3-3 on road after 34-21 win in Edmonton last week. Bombers' only win in last four games was 25-23 at Montreal two weeks ago. All six Montreal road games went over the total. Under is 8-4 in Winnipeg games.
Edmonton (7-5) @ BCLions (6-6) - Teams split pair of meetings earlier this year in Edmonton; Eskimos (-2.5) won first meeting 33-17, then got crushed 36-1 (-6) five weeks later. Red-hot Lions won last five games by average score of 33-9 after a 1-6 start; four of five wins in winning streak were on road- BC is 2-3 as home favorite. beating Riders by 13, Argos by 22. Edmonton lost five of last seven games after 5-0 start; they're 4-3 an an underdog, 4-1 on road, losing by 12 at Winnipeg, 23 at Montreal.
Saskatchewan (4-8) @ Calgary (7-5) - Stampeders already beat Riders in Regina twice this year, 22-18 (-2.5) in Week 5, 45-35 (-3.5) two weeks later. Calgary lost three of last four games after 6-2 start; they're 5-5 as favorites, 2-4 at home, as visitor won nine of their 12 games this season. Roughriders had three-game win streak snapped 42-5 at home last week; they're 3-6 as underdogs, 2-3 on road, losing road games by 30-13-6 pts. Under is 8-2 in last ten Rider games, 2-5 in last seven Calgary games.
Hamilton (8-4) @ Toronto (3-9) - Argonauts (+7.5) lost 37-32 back in Week 7 in Hamilton; Argos snapped 3-game losing skid last week with 25-24 upset of Winnipeg. Toronto is 4-5 as an underdog this year, 1-1 at home- they're 2-3 SU at home, losing by 9-9-13 points. Hamilton lost its last three games on foreign soil, by 12-3-30 points- they're 1-2 as a fave, all at home. TiCats are 2-4 on road, winning 24-16 at Winnipeg, 39-31 at BC Place. Eight of last nine Calgary games went over the total.