CFL Week 15
Winnipeg (8-5) @ Hamilton (8-5) - Bombers beat Hamilton twice so far this season, 24-16 (+9) here in Week 1, then 30-27 (-3.5) at home seven weeks late. Winnipeg was 7-1 at its bye, but lost four of five since, with last three games all decided by 6 or less points- they're 4-2 on road, 4-0 as road dog (underdog covered all six of their road games). TiCats are 5-1 at home, 1-2 as home favorites-they're 5-0 allowing less than 28 points. Eight of last ten Hamilton games went over the total.
Calgary (8-5) @ BCLions (7-6) - Road team won both series games this season; Stamps (+1.5) won 34-32 here in Week 2, then lost 32-19 (-5) at home three weeks ago. Red-hot Lions won last six games, scoring average of 33.3 ppg- they were 1-6 before that. BC covered its last three tries as a favorite. Calgary is 3-3 since bye; they're 5-1 on foreign soil, with only loss at Hamilton- Week 2 win here was only other game thy've been dog all season. Seven of Lions'last nine games stayed under the total.
Toronto (3-10) @ Montreal (8-5) - Alouettes already beat Toronto twice this season, 40-17 (-10) here in Week 3, 36-23 (+5.5) three weeks later. Argos lost four of last five games, are 3-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 6-23-1-5-22-10 points. Five of their last seven games stayed under total. Montreal won three of last four games after 2-4 skid; they're 3-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 4-24-23-30 points, with losses to Saskatchewan/Montreal.
Saskatchewan (4-9) @ Edmonton (7-6) - Eskimos lost six of eight after a 5-0 start; they they beat Roughriders 42-28 (+6.5) in Week 1, are 2-2 as home favorites, but they've lost last three home games SU. Roughriders are 2-4 as road underdogs; after 1-7 start, they won three games in row, but lost last two weeks, by 42-5/40-3 scores. Nine of last 11 Roughrider games stayed under total. Edmonton is 5-0 when it allowed 23 points or less, 2-6 when it allows more. Riders scored 5-3 points last two games.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 15
By David Schwab
It getting to be crunch time in the CFL with just five weeks left in the regular season. Last week a few teams took a step closer towards securing a spot in the postseason, while a few continued their pace towards an early offseason. Montreal started things off last Friday by reclaiming a share of the East Division lead with a 32-26 victory over Winnipeg as a seven-point road favorite. In the second game on Friday, British Columbia ran its winning streak to six with a 33-24 win over Edmonton as a six-point home favorite.
Saturday’s action kicked-off with Calgary burying Saskatchewan 40-3 as a six-point home favorite to take the outright lead in the West Division. Week 14 wrapped-up with Hamilton making it a clean sweep for the favorite’s straight-up with a 27-12 victory over Toronto as a four-point road favorite.
The following is brief preview of this week’s games along with the opening point spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by TheGreek.com.
Friday, October 7
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-4) Over/Under (53)
Winnipeg’s two-game losing streak has dropped it into a tie with the Alouettes for the lead in the East at 8-5 SU (9-4 against the spread). It is 4-2 both SU and ATS on the road and the total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last four games. Hamilton is just one-game back in the East at 7-6 SU and ATS. It is 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) at home this season and the total has gone ‘over’ in eight of its last 10 games.
The Blue Bombers will be going for their third win over the Tiger Cats this season after beating them 24-16 in Week 1 as 8 ½-point road underdogs and again 30-27 win as 3 ½-point home favorites in Week 9. Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last eight games. A big factor in this one could be the health of Winnipeg quarterback Buck Pierce, who missed last week’s game with sore ribs.
Saturday, October 8
Calgary Stampeders at British Columbia Lions (-3½) Over/Under (52½)
Calgary has had trouble winning at home this season, going 3-4 SU and ATS so far, but is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) on the road. It is 8-5 SU (7-6 ATS) overall and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last five games. BC’s six-game winning streak has it just one game back in the West at 7-6 SU (7-5 ATS). It is 3-3 SU and ATS at home this year and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last eight games.
This game could have major tie-break implications after the two split the first two games this season. The Stampeders squeaked out a 34-32 win in Week 2 as 2 ½-point road underdogs and the Lions evened things up with a 32-19 victory as four-point road underdogs in Week 12. BC has a 3-1 edge ATS in the last four meetings and the total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last five games. These two are each averaging around 25 points a game, but the Lions lead the league in fewest points allowed; giving up an average of just 20.8 a game.
Monday, October 10
Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes (-13½) Over/Under (54)
Toronto is currently a longshot to make it back to the playoffs with an overall record of 3-10 SU (5-8 ATS). The club is 1-6 SU (3-4 ATS) on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its last six games. Montreal is now 8-5 SU (6-7 ATS) after two straight wins. It is 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) in seven road games this season and the total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last six.
The Argonauts took two out of three from Montreal last season, but is 0-3 this year both SU and ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in all three games. The Alouettes are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-0 ATS in the last four at home. Montreal continues to lead the CFL in scoring with an average of 31.2 points a game.
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (-5½) Over/Under (51½)
Saskatchewan is in serious danger of missing the postseason with an overall record of 4-9 SU (4-8 ATS) that, right now, has it three games behind for the final playoff spot. It is 2-4 SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games. Edmonton has lost six of its last eight games to fall to 7-6 overall (6-7 ATS). It is 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) at home this season and the total has gone ‘over’ in its last three games.
This series is tied 3-3 SU in the last six meetings, but the Eskimos are 4-1 ATS in the last five. They opened the season with a 42-28 victory as six-point road underdogs with the total easily going ‘over’ the 51.5-point line. The total has now gone ‘over’ in six of the last nine meetings. The Roughriders’ defense has been torched for an average of 26.5 points a game, which is tied with Calgary for the highest in the league.
Canadian Bacon: CFL Week 15 Odds and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-3, 53)
Buck Pierce should be back behind center and that’s good news for the Bombers although they are still without their two best running backs.
Despite injuries and with Alex Brink starting at QB, Winnipeg came a yard short of beating the Montreal Alouettes for the second time. With Pierce back in the lineup, the Bombers will be even more threatening even though he has thrown more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (12). The Bombers lost four of their last five and should be hungry but the defense must step up and prove as intimidating as it was in the first eight games of the year.
That starts with DE Odell Willis. Willis managed only four sacks and eight tackles in his last six games after notching eight sacks and 12 tackles in his first six.
The Tiger-Cats have won their last two games against Calgary and Toronto but have been showing some inconsistency all year long. This said, RB Terry Grant brings tons of speed and with Avon Cobourne as well, the Tiger-Cats have a dual threat on the ground. Wideout Marcus Thigpen also makes the offense more explosive.
Pick: Hamilton
Calgary Stampeders at B.C. Lions (-3.5, 54)
Both teams are coming off impressive wins last week and are now battling for first place in the West.
The Stampeders have been excellent on the road with a 5-1 record but their defense has allowed 348 points, fourth from the league’s basement. Meanwhile, the Lions lead the league having allowed only 273 points.
With a win the Stampeders would stay alone on top of their division while taking the season series against the Lions – which could prove huge when the bye weeks are decided. Calgary is also trying to avenge a 32-19 home loss to the Lions at McMahon Stadium on Sept. 17.
Jon Cornish, named Canadian player of the week and of the month, has kicked Joffrey Reynolds out of the lineup and makes the Stampeders offense more balanced. He has rushed for 233 yards in two games.
The Lions’ offense, led by QB Travis Lulay, remains one of the most potent in the league. Wally Buono’s squad also has an explosive young running back in Andrew Harris, who scored two touchdowns last week against the Eskimos. The Lions are on a six-week winning streak but most importantly, they come into this one relatively healthy and with lots of depth.
Pick: B.C.
Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes (-13, 54)
Jeremaine Copeland and Cory Boyd are both frustrated by the way they are used in the offense. Copeland spoke out to TSN about it before Boyd voiced his complaints over Twitter.
Copeland says the Argos record would probably be much better if he was thrown the ball more often. So despite a change at QB, team spirit can’t get much lower in the Argos locker room with a 3-10 record.
Head coach Jim Barker even admitted he made a mistake by sticking so long with QB Cleo Lemon while saying he can now build around Steven Jyles. The only positive thing going for the Argos is that Chad Owens is about to become the only professional football player in history with more than 3000 combined yards two years in a row (he now has 2431).
Meanwhile, the Alouettes could secure a playoff berth with a win but all the attention will be on QB Anthony Calvillo. He is only 258 yards away from surpassing Damon Allen’s record for the most passing yards in a career in all of pro football history (CFL and NFL).
Pick: Montreal
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (-6, 50.5)
The Eskimos are in the thick of the race for first place in the West while the Roughriders are in a survival mode.
The Eskimos defense has been impressive (ranked third in the league) while no team has given more points this season than Saskatchewan (385, almost 30 points per game). The Riders’ offense has only scored 275 points on the year and were been beaten by the Lions and the Stampeders by a combined score of 82-8 in their last two games.
After losing the first game of the season to the Eskimos, the Roughriders absolutely need this win to avoid being out of the playoff picture for the first time since 2001.
But the Eskimos offense is much more balanced and the rushing game might be the difference in this one. Edmonton averages 104 yards on the ground while the Riders have allowed 155 yards per game to opposing running backs.
Also note that the Roughriders have had their share of difficulties at Commonwealth Stadium, winning only three times in their last 16 trips to Edmonton.
Pick: Edmonton
WINNIPEG (8 - 5) at HAMILTON (7 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
WINNIPEG is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in October games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 6-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-4 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (8 - 5) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (3 - 10) at MONTREAL (8 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.
TORONTO is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1996.
MONTREAL is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 8-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 9) at EDMONTON (7 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 102-65 ATS (+30.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-58 ATS (+24.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
EDMONTON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 6-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG vs. HAMILTON
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Hamilton's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 5 games at home
CALGARY vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Calgary's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Calgary
British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
SASKATCHEWAN vs. EDMONTON
Saskatchewan is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Edmonton's last 12 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan