Canadian Bacon: CFL Week 16 Odds and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Calgary Stampeders at Toronto Argonauts (+6, 52.5)
The Argos are now officially out of the playoff picture, so from now on it’s every man for himself in Toronto’s dressing room with each player having to prove he belongs on the team.
The acquisition of receiver Maurice Mann from the Tiger-Cats can only benefit QB Steven Jyles, who couldn’t rely on his wideouts since taking over Cleo Lemon’s job. Mann and Jyles know each other well having played with one another in Edmonton, but the Argonauts need a lot before becoming anything close to a respectable team.
Also keep in mind that they will host the Stampeders only four days after losing in Montreal. The Stampeders are going to Toronto needing a win to stay in contention for first place in the west where they are in the thick of a three way-tie. Calgary is 5-2 on the road and should leave Toronto with another road win.
Pick: Calgary
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Eskimos (-2.5, 49)
The Blue Bombers need a win here to secure at least a home game in the playoffs, while Edmonton is battling for first place in its division. The Bombers will benefit from two extra days of rest and preparation with Edmonton coming off a short week. It could make a difference.
Winnipeg’s running game is coming around with the emergence of running back Chris Garrett, who picked up 131 yards in last week’s victory against Hamilton.
However, the Bombers will probably have play the Eskimos without DE Kenny Mainor following a death in his family. Fernand Kashama and Jason Vega will be taking turns replacing him.
Edmonton’s Jerome Messam picked up Canadian Player of the Week honors with 118 rushing yards and a touchdown against Saskatchewan on Monday but that didn’t stop the Eskimos from trading for RB Hugh Charles. The club hopes Charles will be a perfect complement to what Messam and Calvin McCarthy bring to the table.
Pick: Edmonton
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes (-7.5, 56)
The Alouettes are in first place tie with the Blue Bombers, and a win would secure at least a playoff home game in Montreal.
The secondary of the Tiger Cats is once again depleted by injuries. Jason Shivers, Milt Collins and Carlos Thomas are all doubtful for this game. That means newly-acquired CB Dee Webb might have to move to the half-back position on the short side, where he will have the mission to contain SB Jamal Richardson. That is far from an ideal scenario for Tiger-Cats defensive coordinator Corey Chamblin.
On offense, Hamilton goes as well or as bad as Kevin Glenn goes. Glenn’s QB rating has been of 118.3 in his seven wins but is only 69.2 in seven losses. So it’s not surprising to hear head coach Marcel Bellefeuille warn that while Glenn is still his number one QB, we’ll see more of Quinton Porter in the upcoming weeks.
Pick: Montreal
B.C. Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (+8.5, 48)
Darian Durant is dinged up and we saw last week that neither Ryan Dinwiddie nor Cole Berquist has the right stuff to replace him anytime soon. Despite a broken bone on his left foot, Durant vows he will be starting this week and through the remainder of this season.
The Roughriders have not scored an offensive touchdown in more than three games and the club’s offensive line has to take a lot of the blame. Saskatchewan’s quarterbacks have been sacked twice and picked off three times in the last two games.
The Lions’ offense is hitting on all cylinders with Travis Lulay improving each week while the defense remains solid. The only concern comes with special teams. That unit conceded 299 yards to Calgary last week.
Last time the Lions and the Riders squared off, B.C. easily won 42-5. Besides the support of the loudest fans in the league, the Riders might face another humbling outcome this time around.
Pick: B.C.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab
The postseason picture in the CFL is starting to take shape with five teams clinching a spot in the playoffs after this past week’s games. Winnipeg punched its ticket in the East Division with a 33-17 victory over Hamilton this past Friday as a four-point road underdog. On Saturday, British Columbia defeated Calgary 33-31 as a 3½-point home favorite, but both teams clinched a playoff berth in the West Division by virtue of Edmonton’s 17-1 win over Saskatchewan as a 6½-point home favorite. This was the first of two games scheduled on Monday as part of Canada’s Thanksgiving Day Holiday celebration. The Eskimos are also celebrating a playoff berth as well as a result of their lopsided win. Montreal knocked off Toronto 29-19 as a 13½-point home favorite in Monday’s other game to ensure it will have a shot at winning its third straight Grey Cup with a place in the postseason.
The following is brief preview of this week’s games along with the opening point spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by TheGreek.com.
Friday, October 14
Calgary Stampeders (-6½) vs. Toronto Argonauts Over/Under (52½)
Despite last week’s loss, Calgary still has a share of the lead in the West with an overall record of 8-6 both straight up and against the spread. It is 5-1 SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six games. Toronto’s postseason hopes are on life-support at 3-11 SU, but it has been tough ATS at 6-8. It is 2-4 SU and ATS at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last seven games.
The Stampeders were stunned on opening day in a 23-21 loss to the Argonauts as eight-point home favorites. The total stayed ‘under’ the 51-point line. Playing on the road has been even tougher for Calgary in this series as it is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Toronto. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the last five meetings.
Saturday, October 15
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Edmonton Eskimos (-2½) Over/Under (49)
Winnipeg failed to make the playoffs last season, but it is currently tied for first in the East at 9-5 SU (10-4 ATS). It is 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this year and the total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games. Edmonton was the other team to miss the postseason in 2010, but it is part of the three-way tie in the West at 8-6 SU (7-7 ATS). It is 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) at home this season and the total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last four games.
The Blue Bombers beat the Eskimos 28-16 in Week 6 as one-point home favorites with the total staying ‘under’ the 50-point line. They are now 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Edmonton. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last six games between the two. These two teams are amongst the best in the league in points allowed; each holding their opponents to 23 points a game.
Sunday, October 16
Hamilton Tiger Cats vs. Montreal Alouettes (-6½) Over/Under (56)
Hamilton has yet to clinch a playoff spot, but at 7-7 SU (7-7 ATS) is just one win away from locking down the final spot. It is 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last five games. Montreal is tied atop the East at 9-5 SU, but is just 6-8 ATS this year. It is 5-2 SU (3-4 ATS) in seven home games and the total has gone ‘over’ in two of its last three games overall.
The Tiger Cats won the first two games of this season’s series both SU and ATS at home, but lost 43-13 in Week 11 as five-point road underdogs. It was just their fifth ATS loss in the last 16 meetings in Montreal. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the last 10 games of the series. Last week, Alouette quarterback Anthony Calvillo became the CFL’s all-time leader in passing yards with 305 yards on the day.
British Columbia Lions (-8) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Over/Under (47)
BC’s current winning streak reached seven games with last week’s victory and it is now tied for the lead in the West at 8-6 SU (7-6 ATS). It is 4-3 SU (4-2 ATS) on the road this year and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games. At 4-10 SU (4-9 ATS) Saskatchewan would probably need to win out to make the playoffs. It is just 2-5 SU (2-4 ATS) at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games.
The Lions are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games of this series overall and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Saskatchewan. This season they are a perfect 2-0 SU in two lopsided wins in which they outscored the Roughriders 66-17. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 10 of the last 14 meetings. Saskatchewan has only managed to score a combined nine points in its last three games and may be without quarterback Darian Durant on Sunday. He is currently listed as ‘questionable’ with a foot injury.
CALGARY (8 - 6) at TORONTO (3 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (9 - 5) at EDMONTON (7 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
WINNIPEG is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 5-0 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON (7 - 7) at MONTREAL (8 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-4 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-3 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA (8 - 6) at SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 67-93 ATS (-35.3 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 102-65 ATS (+30.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-58 ATS (+24.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 52-29 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-5 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY vs. TORONTO
Calgary is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Calgary
WINNIPEG vs. EDMONTON
Winnipeg is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Winnipeg is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Edmonton9-1-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Edmonton's last 13 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
HAMILTON vs. MONTREAL
Hamilton is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Montreal is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Hamilton
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of British Columbia's last 10 games
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games
Saskatchewan is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
CFL Week 16
Calgary (8-6) @ Toronto (3-11) - Argos started season by upsetting Stamps 23-21 (+7.5) in Alberta, but its been all downhill since; they’ve lost five of last six games, are 2-4 at home, 1-2 as home dog, with home losses by 9-13-13-15 points. Stamps lost three of last four games; they’ve allowed 31+ points in four of last six games. Calgary is 5-2 on road, but allowed 88 points in losing last two- they’re 6-5 as favorites, 3-1 on road. Six of last seven Toronto games stayed under the total; six of last nine Calgary games went over, including three of last four on road.
Winnipeg (9-5) @ Edmonton (8-6) - Bombers are 2-4 since starting season 6-1; they’re 8-0 vs spread as underdogs this season, 5-0 on road, with only road losses 27-7 in Regina, 25-24 in Toronto (the two worst teams in CFL). Eskimos (-1) were 5-0 when they went to Manitoba and lost 28-16 in Week 6, starting them on current 3-6 slide; they’ve lost three of last four home games, and are 3-3 as favorites this year, 3-2 at home. Under is 5-2 in both Winnipeg road games and Eskimo home games this season. Edmonton is 2-4 if they score 24 or less points, 6-0 if they score more.
Hamilton (8-6) @ Montreal (9-5) - Home side won all three series meetings this year; TiCats won 34-26 (+3.5) in Week 5, 44-21 (+2.5) six weeks later, then lost 43-13 (+5) a week later. Hamilton is 3-4 on road, 3-3 as road dog, losing away games by 18-12-3-30 points. Montreal scored 34-32-29 points in winning last three games; they’re 3-4 as home favorites (5-2 SU), with home wins by 4-23-23-30-10 points. Alouettes covered just two of their last seven games overall. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Hamilton games, 0-5 in Montreal’s last five games at home.
BCLions (8-6) @ Saskatchewan (4-10) - Red-hot Lions won last seven games after 1-6 start, winning last four road games, all by 13+ points; they’re 4-4 as favorites this season, 1-0 on road. Roughriders (+3) lost 24-11 at BC in Week 6, then 42-5 (-1.5) here three weeks ago, game that started Riders on skid where they’ve been outscored 99-9 the last three weeks. Saskatchewan is 2-5 at home, with four losses by 10+ points; they’re 3-8 as underdogs this season, 1-3 as home dogs. Under is 10-2 in last dozen Roughrider games, 7-3 in Lions’ last ten (1-3 in last four).