CFL Betting Recap - Week 15
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorite/underdogs went 2-2 straight up in Week 15
Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 15
Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 15
Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 15
The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 15
Team Betting Notes
It was back to a score-fest in CFL play in Week 15, as the first three games of the week each went 'over' the total after the 'under' was 3-1 last weekend.
The East Division continues to gain respect late in the season after an embarrassingly slow start. Toronto (5-8) did the division proud with a 33-32 shootout win over Edmonton (9-5). Toronto has won back-to-back games against West Division teams, and they are 3-1 ATS over the past four.
The loss for the Eskimos in Toronto was bad news, but they were able to cover for a fourth consecutive game.
The freefall continues to Winnipeg (6-8), and Friday's loss to expansion Ottawa (2-11) might have been rock bottom. After starting out 5-1 SU/ATS, the Blue Bombers are now an inexplicable 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS during the past eight games. It doesn't figure to get much better at Edmonton Oct. 13, either, although at least the Bombers will be rested after a bye.
Speaking of those upstart RedBlacks, while their overall win-loss record might not show it, they haven't been that bad. They have now covered three of the past four games, and they are 4-3 ATS in seven games at home this season. Unfortunately for Ottawa, their next two games are on the road.
Calgary (12-2) continues to take down all comers, and they have blown open a three-game (six-point) lead in the previously tight West Division. The Stamps haven't lost to a West Division team since Aug. 1, and they have covered seven of the past nine.
Hamilton (6-7) started out 2-7, but they have rattled off four consecutive victories to vault into first place in the East Division. They surprised BC Lions (7-7) with a fourth quarter TD and come-from-behind win.
HAMILTON (6 - 7) at TORONTO (5 - 8) - 10/10/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-4 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-4 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OTTAWA (2 - 11) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 7) - 10/11/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in road games since 1996.
OTTAWA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in road lined games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 1-0 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 5) at MONTREAL (5 - 8) - 10/13/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 9 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 115-77 ATS (+30.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
MONTREAL is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.
MONTREAL is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-0 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINNIPEG (6 - 8) at EDMONTON (9 - 5) - 10/13/2014, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Monday since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 4-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games on the road
Hamilton is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Toronto is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Hamilton
OTTAWA vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Ottawa is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of British Columbia's last 8 games at home
British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
WINNIPEG vs. EDMONTON
Winnipeg is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
CFL Week 16 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett
Oddsshark.com
Week 16 of the Canadian Football League season stretches from Friday to Monday this week, with the slate getting underway at the Rogers Centre in Toronto on Friday night as the Argonauts take on the Tiger-Cats in a battle for top spot in the East division.
Find all of this week's CFL betting lines plus updated Grey Cup futures at Bovada.
Hamilton at Toronto
Last 10 Meetings: Toronto 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS | OU 6-4
The Toronto Argonauts lost but covered the posted spread in their first game of the season against the rival Hamilton Tiger-Cats as those Ontario teams meet once again on Friday night. Hamilton edged Toronto 13-12 as a 3-point home favorite back on September 1, making them 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four games between the two teams. The UNDER has paid off for totals bettors in three of their last four matchups.
Ottawa at B.C.
Last 10 Meetings: B.C. 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS | OU 0-1
The Ottawa RedBlacks and the B.C. Lions will meet for the second time this season on Saturday night, with the UNDER easily paying off in their first matchup back on September 5. B.C. topped Ottawa 7-5 as an 8-point road underdog in their first meeting of the season, failing to cover the spread in that easy UNDER result for totals bettors. The RedBlacks are a CFL-worst 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS this season.
Saskatchewan at Montreal
Last 10 Meetings: Montreal 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS | OU 3-7
The Montreal Alouettes have covered the posted spread in each of their last five games against the Saskatchewan Roughriders as those teams hit the gridiron together on Monday afternoon. The Roughriders topped the Alouettes 16-11 in their first meeting of the season back on August 16 but failed to cover the 13-point spread at home in that contest. The UNDER is 5-1 in their last six matchups.
Winnipeg at Edmonton
Last 10 Meetings: Edmonton 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 4-6
The Edmonton Eskimos are 3-0 both SU and ATS in their last three games against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers as the Western clubs meet for the second time this season on Monday afternoon. Edmonton topped Winnipeg 26-3 as a 1.5-point road underdog in the first meeting of the season between the teams on July 17, in an UNDER result for totals bettors on the CFL odds at the sportsbooks.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The plot continues to thicken in this season’s race to the CFL Grey Cup Playoffs with eight of the nine teams still very much in contention for one of the six spots.
Last week in CFL action, Ottawa got things started by stunning Winnipeg 42-20 as a 3½-point home underdog. The total easily went OVER the 44½-point closing line. Calgary padded its lead in the West Division race with a 31-24 victory against Saskatchewan as a six-point road favorite in last Friday’s other game. The total went OVER the 46-point line in that contest.
Saturday’s two games kicked things off with Toronto squeezing-out a much needed 33-32 win over Edmonton as a 3½-point home favorite with the total going OVER the 54-point line. Hamilton maintained its one-game lead in the East in a 19-17 grinder against British Columbia as a four-point home favorite. That total stayed UNDER the 44½-point closing line.
Friday, Oct. 10
Hamilton (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) at Toronto (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Point-spread: Toronto -3½
Total: 52½
Game Overview
Hamilton will now have to go on the road to get another important division win where it is just 1-5 straight-up (3-3 against the spread) this season. Tiger-Cats’ quarterback Zach Collaros threw for 367 yards against BC last week, but kicker Justin Medlock was the difference with five field goals on five attempts.
The Argonauts are well-positioned for a run at the division title with the majority of their remaining games at home; however they have failed to cover in three of their last four outings at the Rogers Centre. As good as Ricky Ray has been passing the ball this season with 3,430 yards and a league-high 24 touchdown throws, Toronto’s chances to win the East still hinge on improving a defense that is allowing 27.5 points per game.
Betting Trends
Hamilton has won four of the last five meetings SU, but it has failed to cover in four of its last six road games against Toronto. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings at the Rogers Centre.
Saturday, Oct. 11
Ottawa (2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS) at British Columbia (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -9
Total: 44
Game Overview
The RedBlacks notched their second SU victory of the season with their biggest scoring output of the year. They had failed to cross the 10-point barrier in five of their previous six games and on the season Ottawa is averaging just 17.1 PPG. Jonathan Williams rushed for 180 yards on two scores in last week’s win.
The Lions are fading in the West Division race with three-straight losses in which they averaged just 15.7 PPG. The total has now stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games and in 11 of 14 games on the year. BC tallied a total of 11 yards rushing on six attempts in last week’s loss to Hamilton.
Betting Trends
BC won the first meeting this season with a 7-5 victory as a nine-point road favorite. The total for that game was set at 47½ points. The total has stayed UNDER in five of Ottawa’s last seven games and in six of the Lions’ last eight games at home.
Monday, Oct. 13
Saskatchewan (9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS) at Montreal (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -3½
Total: 47½
Game Overview
There is little doubt that Saskatchewan is in serious trouble at quarterback with the loss of Darian Durant a few weeks back. Tino Sunseri continues to get the call as his replacement, but the result has been just one SU win in the last four games with a costly 0-4 record ATS. The defense also has to share some of the blame after allowing an average of 28.8 PPG during this four-game stretch.
Montreal went into last week’s bye with four SU wins in its last five games to remain just a game back in the East Division race. It also covered ATS in four of those games and the total stayed UNDER in three of the contests. The Alouettes’ offense has finally shown some signs of life with quarterback Jonathan Crompton at the helm to average 24 PPG during this recent five-game run.
Betting Trends
The Roughriders have failed to cover in their last five games against Montreal and they are 4-10 SU in the last 14 meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five road games against the Alouettes.
Winnipeg (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS) at Edmonton (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -7½
Total: 50½
Game Overview
The Blue Bombers have returned to the form that led to just three SU wins in 2013. They will bring a SU five-game losing streak into this matchup and they have failed to cover in their last four outings. They have averaged 13.3 PPG in their last three contests, while allowing 28 PPG on defense.
Edmonton is another team that has had its issues winning games lately with a SU 2-4 record in its last six tries, but the Eskimos have been friendly to bettors with a 4-0 mark ATS in their last four games. Mike Reilly was largely responsible for keeping last week’s game close with 272 yards passing and two scores while completing 75 percent of his 32 attempts.
Betting Trends
Winnipeg has posted a costly 1-5 record both SU and ATS in its last six games against the Eskimos and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games that were played in Edmonton.
StatFox Super Situations
HAMILTON at TORONTO
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season 35-8 since 1997. ( 81.4% | 26.2 units )
OTTAWA at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (OTTAWA) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, when playing on a Saturday 55-22 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )
HAMILTON at TORONTO
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (HAMILTON) in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after outgaining opp by 120 or more total yards in their previous game 26-5 since 1997. ( 83.9% | 20.5 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CFL Week 16
Hamilton (7-7) @ Toronto (5-8) — Red-hot TigerCats won last five games after 2-7 start, holding three of last four opponents to 17 or less points; TiCats (-2.5) beat Toronto 13-12 at home in Week 9, passing for 317 yards while being held scoreless in second half- they’ve won last four series games, winning 33-19/36-24 in last two visits here. Argonauts won last two games, scored 33+ points in last three; they’re 3-2 at home, 1-1 as home favorite. TiCats are 3-2 as road underdogs. Three of last four series games stayed under total, as have last four Hamilton games. Last three Argos games went over.
Saskatchewan (9-5) @ Montreal (6-8) — Hoege was mercifully relieved after throwing three picks in nine passes last week, as Riders lost 31-24 to Calgary, their third loss in four games, all with starting QB Durant out injured; Saskatchewan (-14) beat Alouettes 16-11 at home in Week 8, with three takeaways (+3) in game that was 4-4 at half. Home side won four of last five series games; Riders lost five of last six visits here, losing 34-28/17-12 in last two. Montreal won four of last five games, winning last three at home by 7-10-16 points. Seven of last nine series games stayed under total, as have seven of last ten Montreal games.
Ottawa (2-11) @ British Columbia (7-7) — Expansion RedBlacks got their second win last week, blasting Winnipeg 42-20 at home; they’re 1-5 as road underdogs, losing all six away games by 8-16-11-21-10-3 points- they’ve covered three of last four games overall. Lions lost last three games, scoring 15.7 ppg; they’re 3-4 SU at home, 2-5 as home favorites, with home wins by 36-7-17 points. BC (-9) won ugly 7-5 game at Ottawa in Week 11, forcing two turnovers (+2) in game where neither team gained 250 yards. Six of last seven Lion games, five of last seven Ottawa games stayed under the total.
Winnipeg (6-8) @ Edmonton (10-4) — Sliding Bombers lost last five games, losing by three TDs at expansion Ottawa last week; they lost 26-3 (-2) at home to Eskimos in Week 4, when both teams came into game at 3-0- Edmonton ran ball for 192 yards, outgained Winnipeg 384-241, led 13-3 at half. Eskimos won five of last six series games, taking last three by 18-8-23 points; Bombers lost last six visits here since a tie in ’07. Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 series games. Edmonton lost four of last six games, but covered last four, losing last two road games by combined total of 3 points- they’re 5-2 vs spread as favorite this year.
Armadillosports.com
StatFox Super Situations
WINNIPEG at EDMONTON
Play On - Underdogs or pick (WINNIPEG) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team in the second half of the season 39-11 since 1997. ( 78.0% | 26.9 units )
WINNIPEG at EDMONTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (WINNIPEG) versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a favorite 64-54 since 1997. ( 54.2% | 0.0 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )
WINNIPEG at EDMONTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WINNIPEG) off a road loss, team with a losing record in the second half of the season 29-7 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.6% | 21.3 units ) 4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )