CFL Betting Notes - Week 17
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
All six spots in the CFL postseason have been locked up after last week’s action, so now it is a matter of each team jockeying for position over the final three weeks of the regular season to secure a favorable spot in the upcoming playoffs. Last Friday, Toronto stunned Calgary 31-29 as a 6½ point home underdog to put a crimp in the Stampeders’ quest for the West Division title. Edmonton capitalized on the opportunity to grab a share of the lead in the West with a 24-10 victory over Winnipeg as a two-point home favorite in Friday’s other game.
Saturday’s games started-off with Montreal squeaking-out a 27-25 win over Hamilton as a six-point home favorite to move into the outright lead in the East. Despite the loss, the Tiger Cats still managed to clinch the sixth and final berth in the playoffs. British Columbia’s amazing run reached eight straight wins with a 29-18 victory over Saskatchewan as a 7½-point road favorite in Saturday’s night-cap. The Lions are now tied with the Eskimos for the top spot in the West.
The following is brief preview of this week’s games along with the opening point-spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.
Friday, October 21
Edmonton Eskimos (- 3) vs. Toronto Argonauts Over/Under (48)
Edmonton’s two-game winning streak has helped the club force a tie atop the West at 9-6 straight up (8-7 against the spread). It is 4-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last 10 games. Toronto’s win over Calgary last Friday was just its fourth of the year against 11 defeats. It is 7-8 ATS overall and 3-4 ATS at home. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last eight games.
The Eskimos beat the Argonauts 26-25 earlier in the season as eight-point home favorites with the total going ‘over’ the 49 ½-point line. It was their fourth SU win in the last five games, but the Argos have a slight 3-2 edge ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the last 10 meetings in Toronto. Edmonton is ranked second in the league in points allowed while Toronto is ranked second-to-last in scoring.
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders (-10) Over/Under (51)
Saskatchewan’s 11th loss of the season officially ended its chance to return to a third straight Grey Cup. It is 4-10 ATS overall and 2-5 ATS in seven road games this season. The total has stayed ‘under’ in its last four games. Calgary is now one game back in the West at 8-7 SU and ATS. It is 3-4 SU and ATS in seven home games and the total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last four games overall.
The Roughriders have lost all three previous games this season to the Stampeders both SU and ATS including a 40-3 rout as six-point road underdogs just three weeks ago. Calgary is now 5-2 both SU and ATS in the last seven meetings. Saskatchewan has been outscored by its opponents this season by an average of 9.1 points a game.
Saturday, October 22
Montreal Alouettes (-1½) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Over/Under (52½)
Montreal is back in the driver seat in the East at 10-5 SU, but is just 6-9 ATS this year. It is 4-3 SU in seven road games this season, and has covered the spread in three of the games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six games overall. Winnipeg’s loss last week dropped it to 9-6 SU (10-5 ATS) and one game back in the East. It is 4-3 SU (5-2 ATS) at home this season and the total has stayed ‘under in 10 of its 15 games overall.
This game should go a long way towards deciding the East title given the fact that the season series is tied at one-game apiece. The Alouettes have actually won eight of the last 10 games SU, but the Blue Bombers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last eight meetings. Montreal leads the league in scoring with an average of 30.8 points a game, while Winnipeg is ranked third in least points allowed.
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (PK) Over/Under (53½)
BC’s eight-game winning streak has run its record on the year to 9-6 SU (8-6 ATS). It is 5-3 SU (5-2 ATS) on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games overall. Hamilton’s two-game skid dropped it to 7-8 SU (8-7 ATS) on the year and in third-place in the East. It is 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) in seven home games and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six games overall.
The Lions lost to the Tiger-Cats 39-31 earlier in the season as 3.5-point home favorites with the total going well ‘over’ the 49½-point line. Hamilton is now 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two with the total going ‘over’ in four of the games. BC is the second-highest scoring team in the CFL with 429 points while Hamilton is a close fourth with 420.
Canadian Bacon: Week 17 Odds and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
By Covers.com
Edmonton Eskimos at Toronto Argonauts (+3, 48)
The Argos got an upset win in the last moments of their game against the Calgary Stampeders, but while it might have been their best performance of the season, don’t expect much moving forward.
Quarterback Steven Jyles looked good in the first half but he only threw for 118 yards with one TD and four picks.
The Stampeders really shot themselves in the foot more than anything else and it would be surprising to see the Eskimos, who still have legitimate chance on first place, doing the same.
The Eskimos have piled up seven sacks, six interceptions and allowed only one TD in their last two games. Edmonton will play the Lions next week in a game that could decide first place in the West. But for that game to bare any significance, they first win in Toronto.
Pick: Edmonton
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Calgary Stampeders (+1, 52.5)
Drew Tate will orchestrate Calgary’s attack after coach John Hufnagel decided to make a quarterback change and put Henry Burris on the bench. Tate, who took over against the Argos after Burris was pulled, threw for 263 yards with two touchdown passes. Now he’s looking to put an end to a two-game slide.
Ken-Yon Rambo, still nursing an Achilles tendon injury, will miss a third game in a row. Nik Lewis, who has fought a virus, claims to feel much better and has been active in full practices all week.
If the Stampeders’ offense is a disappointment, Saskatchewan’s has been frankly pathetic. Darian Durant, who has a left foot fracture, claims it would be best if he was not starting now that Saskatchewan is out of the playoff picture but coach Ken Miller thinks otherwise.
Last week, in a loss that ended the club’s playoff hopes, kicker Chris Milo scored all 18 points for this team. Now the Roughriders only hope is to spoil any chances the Stampeders still have of finishing first.
Pick: Calgary
Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+1, 52.5)
The Blue Bombers, after winning seven of the first eight games of the season, have lost five of their last seven. Buck Pierce isn’t helping matters. He had 10 TD passes and six picks in the first eight games but threw 10 picks and only three touchdown passes in the last seven.
The Alouettes head to Winnipeg riding a four-game winning streak. Winnipeg won in Montreal 25-23 in mid-September but lost a few weeks later in front of its home fans at Canad Inns when the Bombers had three chances to win it from the 1-yard line with a few seconds left.
A Montreal win would assure Marc Trestman’s squad of hosting the East division final at the Big O.
Pick: Montreal
B.C. Lions at Hamilton Tiger Cats (+1, 53)
The Lions have won eight in a row and are still in the thick of the West division title, but this has been a short week and last week’s win was costly on the injury front. Receiver Shawn Gore suffered a concussion and won’t play against Hamilton. Rookie Marco Iannuzzi will take his place. Cornerback Dante Marsh also suffered a concussion but practiced all week and might play. Running back Tim Brown is out with a rib injury and will be replaced by Jock Sanders, who joined the Lions only last week. On special teams, Hamid Mahmoudi will replace Jason Arakgi (ankle) and linebacker Solomon Elimimian should miss a second game in a row.
The Tiger-Cats are struggling and coach Marcel Bellefeuille is playing yo-yo with his quarterbacks Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter. I can’t recall any team having much success alternating quarterbacks during a game like he did last week in Montreal.
Pick: B.C.
CFL Week 17
Edmonton (9-6) @ Toronto (4-11) - Argonauts (+8.5) lost 26-25 back in Week 6 in Edmonton; Argos covered three of last four games- they're 6-6 as underdogs, 2-2 at home. Toronto is 3-4 at home, with losses by 9-13-13-15 points. Eskimos are 8-0 when they allow 25 or less points, 1-6 if they don't; they're 4-3 on road, 4-3 as favorites, 0-1 on road. Last week was first time in eight games Toronto scored more than 25 points. Under is 10-4 in last 14 Eskimo games, 6-2 in last eight Argonaut games.
Saskatchewan (4-11) @ Calgary (8-7) - Stampeders have already beaten Saskatchewan three times this season, 40-3 (-8.5) here three weeks ago, 22-18 (-2.5)/45-35 (-3.5) at Taylor Field. Riders scored 7.3 ppg in losing last three games by 37-16-11 points; they're 2-5 as road underdogs, with road losses by 30-13-6-37-16 points. Calgary lost four of their last five games, losing each of their last two games by 2 points each- they're 3-4 as home favorites, with home wins by 12-7-37 points (3-4 SU).
Montreal (10-5) @ Winnipeg (9-6) - Road team won both meetings this season; Bombers (+8) won 25-23 in Quebec five weeks ago, then lost at home to Alouettes 32-26 (+6.5) two weeks later, so this is third meeting in last six weeks. Montreal won last four games, failing to cover three in row and six of eight- they're 4-3 SU on road. Winnipeg is 2-5 since their bye after starting season 7-1; they're 4-3 at home, but lost last two home games, allowing 45-32 points. Under is 10-5 in Bomber games.
BCLions (9-6) @ Hamilton (8-7) - TigerCats (+3) upset the Lions 39-31 back in Week 4, when BC was stumbling, but Lions have now won eight games in row (7-1 vs spread)- they've won last five road games, scoring 33.6 ppg. TigerCats lost four of last six games but covered three of last four; they're 5-2 at home, losing only to Edmonton (38-23), Winnipeg (33-17). After allowing 25+ points in six of first seven games, BC held six of last eight opponents under 20 points. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Lion games, 3-0 in last three Hamilton tilts.
EDMONTON (9 - 6) at TORONTO (4 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1996.
EDMONTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 4-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 11) at CALGARY (8 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus division opponents this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a division game this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a loss against a division rival this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 102-67 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-60 ATS (+22.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-5 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-5 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL (10 - 5) at WINNIPEG (9 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 89-62 ATS (+20.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 5-4 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 7-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 6) at HAMILTON (7 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
HAMILTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
HAMILTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 4-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON vs. TORONTO
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Edmonton is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
Toronto is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Edmonton
SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Saskatchewan's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 8 games at home
Calgary16-7-1 SU in its last 24 games at home
MONTREAL vs. WINNIPEG
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games
Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of British Columbia's last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
British Columbia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Hamilton's last 12 games