CFL Betting Recap - Week 16
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 16
Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 16
Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 16
Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 16
The 'Over' went 4-0 in Week 16
Team Betting Notes
Calgary (13-1-1) is showing no signs of letting up. They won their 12th consecutive game with a convincing 48-20 victory at Toronto (5-10). The Stampeders are 12-0 SU in the past 12 dating back to July 8, and they have managed a 9-1 ATS mark over the past 10 outings, and 12-2 ATS in the past 14. The Stamps are doing it on the road, too, going 5-0-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their past six road games since dropping their first road game of the season in Week 1.
It mght be too little, too late for Saskatchewan (4-10), but they are playing much better football lately. The Roughriders won their third straight game, and their first road outing of the season, topping Ottawa (6-7-1). The Roughriders have dropped the RedBlacks in both meetings, and the 'over' is 2-0 in those games. Saskatchewan has posted an impressive 5-0-1 ATS mark over the past six games.
Montreal (4-10) still hasn't been able to cobble together a two-game win streak. After an impressive win last week, the Alouettes fell flat against Edmonton (8-7).
The Eskimos have equaled a season-best with three straight covers. The 'over' is 6-2 in the past eight games for the Esks heading into their showdown with the BC Lions (9-5). The Esks won 27-23 at home Sept. 23 in the first meeting with the Lions, one of just four games in 14 tries the Lions haven't covered.
Speaking of the Lions, they were dumped 37-35 at Winnipeg (9-6). The Bombers have covered three of the past four, and they're 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 outings.
OTTAWA (6 - 7 - 1) at HAMILTON (6 - 8 ) - 10/14/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-3 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (9 - 6) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 5) - 10/14/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 10) at TORONTO (5 - 10) - 10/15/2016, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 127-91 ATS (+26.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 116-84 ATS (+23.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
TORONTO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL (4 - 10) at CALGARY (13 - 1 - 1) - 10/15/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
CALGARY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.
CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 2-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Ottawa is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
WINNIPEG vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
British Columbia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
British Columbia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
SASKATCHEWAN vs. TORONTO
Saskatchewan is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
Saskatchewan is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
MONTREAL vs. CALGARY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Calgary's last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal
Ottawa at Hamilton
Ottawa: 1-8 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points
Hamilton: 13-4 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Winnipeg at British Columbia
Winnipeg: 2-4 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games
British Columbia: 6-0 ATS off a division game
Saskatchewan at Toronto
Saskatchewan: 49-30 ATS revenging a home loss versus opponent
Toronto: 6-16 ATS after playing a game at home
Montreal at Calgary
Montreal: 0-7 ATS after playing a game at home
Calgary: 9-2 ATS off a road win
CFL Betting Notes - Week 17
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
While it still might be a case of too little, too late Saskatchewan posted its third-straight win on Friday by beating Ottawa 32-20 in overtime as a 6½-point road favorite.
In Saturday’s CFL action, Winnipeg won a crucial West Division showdown by beating British Columbia 37-35 as a slight 1½-point favorite at home.
There were two games on Monday’s CFL holiday slate starting with Edmonton doubling up Montreal 40-20 as a three-point road favorite.
In the other matchup, Calgary continued its winning ways with a routine 48-20 romp over Toronto as a 9½-point road favorite to extend its current SU winning streak to 12 games.
Friday, Oct. 14
Ottawa RedBlacks (6-7-1 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -2
Total: 53
Game Overview
Ottawa has now lost five of its last seven games both straight-up and against the spread heading into the first game of this crucial East Division home-and-home series. Defensively, the RedBlacks have given up an average of 33 points over their last four games as opposed to a season average of 27.6 points allowed. In last week’s stunning loss to Saskatchewan, Ottawa turned to veteran quarterback Henry Burris for a spark and it is unclear as to whether or not Trevor Harris will remain the starter for Friday night.
The Tiger-Cats stumbled into last week’s bye with a troubling 1-3 SU record in their previous four games while going a costly 0-4 ATS. Their main issue during this recent slide has been putting points on the board with an average of just 19 points over their last four contests. The total has stayed UNDER in their last three games. Last time out against Calgary in Week 15, both Zach Collaros and Jeramiah Masoli saw action at quarterback after Collaros was injured in the first half. He is listed as out for Friday night.
Betting Trends
The RedBlacks have won the last three meetings SU and they have a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five games between these division rivals. The total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) vs. BC Lions (9-6 SU, 10-4 ATS
Point-spread: BC -5½
Total: 54½
Game Overview
This will be the second game in this West Division home-and-home showdown with Winnipeg gaining the early edge. Matt Nichols put the ball up 32 times in last week’s win against BC and his top two targets were Weston Dressler and Andrew Harris with a combined 10 catches for 115 yards and a score. The Blue Bombers gave up a total of 422 passing yards in that game along with another 91 yards on the ground.
While Jonathon Jennings had a career day throwing the ball in the first meeting, he also tossed a pair of interceptions that did not help BC’s cause. The Lions got a huge effort from wide receivers’ Bryan Burnham and Emmanuel Arceneaux in last week’s losing effort. Burnham caught nine balls for 208 yards and Arceneaux added 10 receptions for 150 yards, but neither player made their way into the end zone against the Blue Bombers.
Betting Trends
Winnipeg has now won four of the last six meetings SU with a 4-1-1 record ATS. The total went OVER last week’s 54-point closing line and it has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.
Saturday, Oct. 15
Saskatchewan Roughriders (4-10, 8-6 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (5-10 SU, 5-10)
Point-spread: Toronto -1
Total: 51
Game Overview
The Roughriders’ late-season push to possibly sneak into the playoffs continued with their third SU win, but the bigger story for bettors has been six-straight covers ATS. Last week against Winnipeg, Darian Durant had one of his best road games of the season with 328 passing yards and two touchdown throws while going 22-for-38. The bad news is that after Armanti Edwards came up big in that game as well with six receptions for 83 yards he was lost for the season with a hand injury.
The Argonauts’ steady downward spiral that started with an early August loss to Winnipeg has resulted in just one win both SU and ATS in their last nine games. The total went OVER the 52½-point closing line in Monday’s loss to Calgary and it has now gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in five of their last six games behind a defense that has allowed an average of 38.5 points during this same span.
Betting Trends
Toronto has won five of the last six meetings SU while going 4-2 ATS including a 30-17 victory in Week 2 as a 3½-point road underdog. The total stayed UNDER 51½ points in that game after going OVER in six of the previous seven games between the two.
Montreal Alouettes (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (13-1-1 SU, 12-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -15½
Total: 52
Game Overview
Montreal is another team from the East that has far more losses than wins since August with a SU 2-7 record in its last nine games. The Alouettes did manage to cover in two of their last three games and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in three of their last five contests. After showing some signs of life on offense with a 38-point outburst two weeks ago in a win against Toronto, Montreal slid back into its old ways behind quarterback Rakeem Cato with 330 yards of total offense and 20 points against the Eskimos this past Monday.
The Stampeders have been almost unstoppable during this impressive 12-game SU run and they have also been a financial boon to bettors with nine covers ATS in their last 10 games. They could easily run the table heading into the playoffs with games against Toronto and Montreal left on the slate before a Week 20 bye. Calgary has been scoring points at a high rate all season long but it has taken things up a notch or two with an average of 41.2 points over its last six games.
Betting Trends
This will be the first meeting this season and the home team in this inter-division tilt has won the last five meetings SU with Montreal covering ATS in the last three games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings overall.
StatFox Super Situations
OTTAWA at HAMILTON
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season 39-11 since 1997. ( 78.0% | 26.9 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
OTTAWA at HAMILTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (OTTAWA) versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite 56-51 since 1997. ( 52.3% | 0.0 units ) 1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | 0.0 units )
MONTREAL at CALGARY
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (CALGARY) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team 41-12 since 1997. ( 77.4% | 27.8 units ) 1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | -2.3 units )
CFL Week 17
Ottawa (6-7-1) @ Hamillton (6-8 ) — Favorites won/covered five of six series games (over 4-2); Ottawa swept LY’s games, by 6-16-7 points, after going 0-3 vs TiCats in 2014, losing by 10-10-9 points. RedBlacks are 3-7 in last 10 games after a 3-0-1 start; they’re 4-3 SU on the road, 1-2 as road underdogs this year. Three of last four Ottawa games went over. Hamilton lost six of last nine games; under is 4-1-1 in its last six; TiCats are 3-3 SU at home, 2-4 as home favorites.
Winnipeg (9-6) @ British Columbia (9-5) — Bombers (-1.5) beat BC Lions 37-35 Saturday at home, scoring GW TD with 8:10 left; they’ve won four of last five games against the Lions, taking last three by 8-3-2 points- three of those four games went over the total. Winnipeg won seven of last nine games after a 1-4 start; they’re 5-2 SU on foreign soil, 4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Over is 7-1 in Bombers’ last eight games. Lions lost two of last three games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites. Three of last four BC games went over the total.
Saskatchewan (4-10) @ Toronto (5-10) — Roughriders won last three games by total of 7 points, with two wins in OT, after their 1-10 start. Riders Argonauts won last six games against the Roughriders, winning first meeting this year 30-17 (+3.5) in Regina June 30. Riders lost last two visits to Toronto, 48-15/30-26, with last three played here over. Saskatchewan got its first road win in seven tries in OT at Ottawa LW. Toronto lost four in row, 8 of last 9 games after a 4-2 start; Argos are 2-6 SU at home, 1-2 as a home favorite.
Montreal (4-10) @ Calgary (13-1-1) — Underdogs covered five of last seven series games with last four staying under the total. Home side won last five series games. Alouettes lost last six visits to Calgary, with four of the six by 11+ points. Last four series games stayed under the total. Montreal lost five of last six games overall; they’re 3-3 as a road underdog. Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Calgary won its last 12 games, is 9-1 vs spread in last ten; they’re 5-2 against the spread as a home favorite.
Armadillosports.com
StatFox Super Situations
MONTREAL at CALGARY
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 after gaining 325 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games 39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
SASKATCHEWAN at TORONTO
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in October games 31-4 since 1997. ( 88.6% | 0.0 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | 0.0 units )