Week 19 CFL Odds and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Covers.com
Hamilton Tiger Cats at Toronto Argonauts (+2, 50.5)
This is the only game being played this week that is guaranteed to have no playoff implications.
So it’s probably not surprising that the Tiger-Cats will sit RB Avon Cobourne, linebackers Rey Williams and Jamall Johnson as well as receiver and return specialist Marc Thigpen.
Plus, coach Marcel Bellefeuille announced this week that QB Jason Boltus may play in Toronto, saying “it was the perfect opportunity to give him some play time and contribute to his development.”
It looks like the Argos will have a chance to give their disappointing season a happy ending in front of their fans. Wideout Maurice Mann, who was recently traded to the Argos by the Tiger Cats, will also find extra motivation by facing his former teammates for the first time.
Pick: Toronto
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (-8.5, 47)
The Edmonton Eskimos are still fighting for first place in the West despite losing 29-20 last week in Vancouver.
After struggling in the midseason, Ricky Ray has been pretty solid down the stretch and has six touchdown passes in his last three games. Running back Jerome Messam had a tougher night than usual in British Columbia and was limited to only 62 rushing yards, but expect him to bounce back this week.
On defense, the Eskimos have been sloppy over the last few weeks and will need to tighten up. Out of the playoff picture, the Roughriders are trying to end the season on a bright note but will also look to give coach Ken Miller a final win before he retires. It could also be the last game for 33-year-old Jason Clermont.
Pick: Edmonton
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders (-6, 51.5)
After stumbling in Toronto, the Blue Bombers must beat the Stampeders to finish on top of their division, which will give them a week off and a home game for the Eastern final.
However, they will face the Stampeders without QB Buck Pierce, who suffered a knee injury, and without DB Johnny Sears, who was suspended for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Toronto’s QB Steven Jyles Friday night.
And there’s some tension in the locker room too. Defensive end Odell Willis doesn’t appreciate being use in a rotation with teammate Doug Brown and has vented about it on his Twitter account. A loss in Calgary and a win for the Alouettes in B.C. would give Montreal first place, the bye and the right to host the Eastern final.
The Stampeders can still finish second and host the West Division semifinal next week instead of travelling to either Edmonton or Vancouver. But if both the Eskimos and the Lions lose, then the Stamps would take first place and host the Western final.
Drew Tate was pretty solid last week in the win against Montreal but when your substitute is Henry Burris, you have to stay on top of your game to keep the starting job.
Pick: Calgary
Montreal Alouettes at B.C. Lions (-3.5, 54)
The Alouettes are going to Vancouver with a chance to take first place from the Blue Bombers – if Winnipeg loses earlier on Saturday. So the Als will only know the relevance of this final regular season when they step on the field of B.C. Place.
In any case, Montreal will be without two key players: LT Josh Bourke (shoulder) and WR Kerry Watkins (broken leg). The Als have plenty of resources to replace Watkins but it is not quite the case when it comes to replacing Bourke, their best offensive lineman. The Alouettes have won only once in their last 10 visits in Vancouver since 2001.
The Lions would secure first place in the West and will host the division’s final in two weeks with a win. Travis Lulay was outstanding last week with 322 passing yards and three touchdowns which made him Offensive Player of the Week. At the end of the game, with the Eskimos within two points, Lulay led an 80-yard surge to put the game away.
Pick: B.C.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 19
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
There is just one week left in the regular season before the start of this year’s CFL playoffs and while all six berths were secured a few weeks back, both division titles remain up for grabs. Starting with last Friday’s game, Toronto threw a monkey wrench into the works with a shocking 27-22 victory over Winnipeg as an 8½-point road underdog. Saskatchewan got into the upset act in Saturday’s first game with a 19-3 win over Hamilton as a six-point home underdog. Later that day, British Columbia pulled away from Edmonton 29-20 as a four-point home favorite to keep its West Division title hopes alive. Calgary finished off the weekend with a thrilling 32-27 win over Montreal as a 5½-point road underdog to create a three-way log jam atop the West. The Alouettes’ loss kept them tie with the Blue Bombers for the lead in the East.
The following is brief preview of this week’s games along with the opening point spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.
Thursday, Nov. 4
Hamilton Tiger Cats (-2½) vs. Toronto Argonauts Over/Under (51½)
Hamilton is the only set seed for the postseason at No.6 with an overall record of 8-9 straight-up (9-8 against the spread. It is 2-6 SU (4-4 ATS) on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in its last five games overall. Toronto is 5-12 SU, but a solid 8-9 ATS. It is 3-5 both SU and ATS at home and the total has gone ‘over’ in its last three games.
The Tiger Cats have beaten the Argonauts twice this season SU, but the series is tied at 1-1 ATS. The total is also split at 1-1. Hamilton is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Toronto. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the last eight meetings. The Argos have averaged 26.3 points in their last three games after averaging just 21.4 points on the year.
Friday, Nov. 5
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Eskimos (8½) Over/Under (47)
Saskatchewan moved to 5-12 SU (5-11 ATS) with last week’s win. It is 2-6 SU and ATS in eight road games this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in its last six games overall. Edmonton is 10-7 SU (9-8 ATS) on the year. It is 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) at home this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games.
The Roughriders lost both games to the Eskimos this season SU and ATS by a combined score of 59-29. They managed to score just one point in the last game as a six-point road underdog. Edmonton is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games and 7-2 ATS in the last nine. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four meetings. Saskatchewan is the lowest scoring team in the league with an average of just 19.2 points a game.
Saturday, Nov. 6
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders (-6½) Over/Under (52)
Winnipeg is 10-7 SU (11-6 ATS) and can clinch the East with a win over the Stampeders. It is 5-3 SU and ATS on the road and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games overall. Calgary is also 10-7 SU (9-7 ATS) on the year. It is 4-4 SU and ATS in eight home games and the total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games.
The Blue Bombers have lost five of six to the Stampeders SU including a 21-20 setback earlier this season as 3½-point home favorites. They do however, have the advantage ATS with a 7-2-1 record in the last 10 meetings. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the previous seven games between the two. Winnipeg quarterback Buck Pierce remains doubtful for this game with a knee injury.
Montreal Alouettes vs. British Columbia Lions (-3) Over/Under (53½)
At 10-7 SU (6-11 ATS), Montreal needs a win and some help to secure a fourth-straight East title. It is 4-4 SU (3-5 ATS) on the road this year and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games. BC is also 10-7 SU (9-7 ATS). It is 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) at home this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games overall.
The Alouettes have beaten the Lions four of the last five games SU, but BC is 5-1 ATS in the last six. Montreal won the only meeting this season 30-26 as a five-point home favorite with the total going ‘over’ the 53-point line. The total has now gone ‘over’ in three of the last four games. The Alouettes should finish the regular season with the top quarterback (Anthony Calvillo), running back (Brandon Whitaker), and receiver (Jamel Richardson) in the league in terms of total yards gained at each position.
HAMILTON (8 - 9) at TORONTO (5 - 12)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 6-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 7-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (5 - 12) at EDMONTON (10 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus division opponents this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 62-40 ATS (+18.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 103-68 ATS (+28.2 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 89-61 ATS (+21.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
EDMONTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 61-88 ATS (-35.8 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
EDMONTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 7-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 6-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (10 - 7) at CALGARY (10 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
WINNIPEG is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
WINNIPEG is 90-63 ATS (+20.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL (10 - 7) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (10 - 7)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
Hamilton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games at home
Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN vs. EDMONTON
Saskatchewan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Edmonton is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
WINNIPEG vs. CALGARY
Winnipeg is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Winnipeg is 16-6-2 ATS in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
MONTREAL vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Montreal is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of British Columbia's last 13 games
CFL Week 19
Hamilton (9-8) @ Toronto (5-12) - TiCats beat Toronto twice this year, 37-32 (-7.5) at home in Week 7, 27-12 (-4) five weeks ago. Argos split last six games after a 2-9 start, with wins by 1-2-5 points- they're 3-5 at home, 7-7 as underdogs, 2-3 at home. Hamilton lost three of its last four games; they've lost five of last six road games. Last five Hamilton games stayed under total; last three Toronto games went over. TiCats are 2-3 as favorites this season. 1-0 on road (@ Toronto).
Saskatchewan (5-12) @ Edmonton (10-7) - Eskimos beat Riders twice so far this year, 42-28 (+6.5) on Opening Day in Regina, 17-1 (-6) four weeks ago at home. Edmonton won three of last four games; they're 4-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 18-16-1-16-14 points. Riders snapped 5-game skid with win in home finale last week; they're 2-6 as a road underdog, losing away games by 30-13-6-37-16-12 points, with a couple wins, at Montreal/Winnipeg. Last seven Saskatchewan games, three of last four Eskimo games stayed under the total.
Winnipeg (10-7) @ Calgary (10-7) - Stampeders (-3) won 21-20 back in Week 3 at Winnipeg, rallying from down 11-7 at half; Calgary won last couple games after 2-5 skid- they're 4-4 at home, beating Roughriders in last two home games, 40-3/25-13. Stampeders are 4-4 as home favorites. Bombers lost six of last nine games after 7-1 start; they're 2-3 in last five road games- they covered five of six as a road underdog this year. Over is 5-2 in last seven Calgary games, 1-3 in last four Winnipeg tilts. Stamps allowed 32+ points in each of their last five losses.
Montreal (10-7) @ BC Lions (10-7) - Lions (+6.5) opened season with a 30-26 loss at Montreal; after a 1-6 start, BC has gone 9-1, losing only at Hamilton two weeks ago. BC won its last four home games, by 22-9-2-9 points- they're 4-4 as home favorites. Under is 3-1 in last four Montreal games, 3-0 in Lions' last three. Alouettes are 0-5 against spread in last five games, losing last two weeks 26-25/32-37; they've lost four of last six road games, are 1-1 as underdog this season. This is first time since Week 8 that Montreal has been an underdog.