CFL Betting Notes - Week 2
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The new CFL regular season just got underway this past weekend and we have already seen a pair of shocking upsets to kick things off. Winnipeg got the ball rolling with a 45-21 romp over Toronto last Thursday night as a seven-point home underdog.
After Calgary thumped Montreal 29-8 on Saturday as a 7½-point favorite at home, Edmonton went on the road to beat British Columbia 27-20 as an eight-point underdog. In a rematch of last season’s Grey Cup Championship, Saskatchewan was even more dominant this time around with a 31-10 victory over Hamilton as a 3½-point home favorite to close things out for Week 1.
Total bettors watched the ‘under’ produce a 3-1 record in Week 1.
Opening numbers provided by 5Dimes
Thursday, July 3
Ottawa RedBlacks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF
Game Overview
The Ottawa RedBlacks are the CFL’s newest franchise and they will make their debut on the road this Thursday night after enjoying an extra week to prepare with a bye. The expectations for an expansion team are never that high, but Ottawa will have an experienced gunslinger at the helm in veteran quarterback Henry Burris, who led the CFL in passing yards last season with 4,925 while playing for Hamilton.
The Blue Bombers only won three games straight-up in 2013 while averaging just 20.1 points a game, but they more than doubled that total last week against Toronto with Drew Willy lighting things up at quarterback. He completed 19-of-27 throws for 308 yards and four touchdowns.
Betting Trends
While there are obviously no recent betting trends for Ottawa, Winnipeg comes into this matchup with a 3-9-1 record against the spread in its past 13 games and they are just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in seven of its last 10 home games.
Friday, July 4
British Columbia Lions (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Point-spread: British Columbia -1
Total: 51
Game Overview
BC was listed as 5Dimes’ favorite to win this season’s Grey Cup on its preseason futures board, but last week’s loss at home has already raised some red flags. Kevin Glenn, who replaced an injured Travis Lulay at quarterback, was picked-off four times and the Lions’ ground game was held to just 53 yards.
The expectation level for Montreal’s re-tooled offense that now features former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith at quarterback and Chad Johnson at wide receiver, sputtered out of the gate with just eight points in Saturday’s loss. Smith struggled to complete just 44 percent of his 41 passes for a total of 154 yards. Johnson recorded two catches for 20 yards.
Betting Trends
The Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Montreal and they are 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings overall. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between these two, including the last five games played at Percival Molson Stadium.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Pointspread: Edmonton -2½
Total: 52
Game Overview
Hamilton will quickly need to put last week’s trip to Saskatchewan in the rear view mirror to avoid a 0-2 start on this West Division road trip. It fell behind 24-1 at the half behind new starting quarterback Zach Collaros. He ended the day with 139 yards passing and a lost fumble and interception.
The Eskimos had the second-worst record in the CFL last season at 4-14 SU, but they looked like a whole different team in last Saturday’s upset against BC. Mike Reilly threw for 229 yards and three touchdowns while adding 33 yards on the ground. Edmonton’s defense was torched for an average of 28.8 points per game last season, but it came up big against BC in its 2014 season opener by holding the Lions to just three second-half points.
Betting Trends
The home team in this series has gone 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five games. Hamilton does hold a 13-6 edge ATS in the last 19 meetings in this matchup.
Saturday, July 5
Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Pointspread: PICK
Total Line: 53½
Game Overview
The defending champs are off to another solid start this year after going 8-1 SU in their first nine games of the 2013 regular season. Darian Durant was efficient throwing the ball in the win over Hamilton last Sunday with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent, but it was the Roughriders’ ground game that led the way. Anthony Allen ran the ball 27 times for 158 yards and one score while averaging 5.9 yards a carry.
The Argonauts are still trying to figure out what hit them in last Thursday’s season opener that started with a 17-0 hole in the first quarter. Ricky Ray’s numbers were solid with 283 yards passing and two touchdowns, but Toronto’s defense failed to show up after giving-up well over 300 yards through the air and over 130 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
The Roughriders come into this contest with a 4-1 record ATS in the last five meetings in Toronto and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 13 games between the two at the Rogers Centre. The road team in this matchup has won six of the last eight meetings SU.
OTTAWA at WINNIPEG (1 - 0) - 7/3/2014, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 1) at MONTREAL (0 - 1) - 7/4/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 2-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 2-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAMILTON (0 - 1) at EDMONTON (1 - 0) - 7/4/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 67-95 ATS (-37.5 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
EDMONTON is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) when playing on a Friday since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 2-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 2-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 0) at TORONTO (0 - 1) - 7/5/2014, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 114-74 ATS (+32.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in dome games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 49-25 ATS (+21.5 Units) in July games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 2-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 2-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
8:30 PM
OTTAWA vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games on the road
Ottawa is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing Ottawa
Winnipeg is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ottawa
7:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. MONTREAL
British Columbia is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
British Columbia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Montreal is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against British Columbia
10:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Hamilton's last 10 games
Hamilton is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Edmonton is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Hamilton
3:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. TORONTO
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Saskatchewan is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 14 games at home
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Game of the Day: Redblacks at Blue Bombers
By Covers.com
Ottawa Redblacks at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
The expansion Ottawa Redblacks play their first game Thursday when they visit the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Redblacks are already at the top of the East Division without playing a game thanks to Week 1 losses by every other East team. That position will be difficult to maintain against Winnipeg, which posted 45 points with its new-look offense against the Toronto Argonauts.
Quarterback Drew Willy tossed four touchdowns in his Blue Bombers debut, setting the bar high for his second outing. Veteran pivot Henry Burris will be under center for Ottawa, which has not had a CFL team since 2005. Special teams are a concern for Winnipeg after allowing a pair of long returns against Toronto, while the Redblacks finally decided on a kicker, going with 24-year-old Brett Maher.
LINE HISTORY: Lines for this game are currently off the board.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Bombers couldn't have looked any better in last week's 45-21 win over the Argos, and they'll have the advantage of staying at home for another winnable game against the expansion Redblacks on Thursday. Ottawa really is an unknown commodity at this point. There are undoubtedly going to be some growing pains, even with plenty of veteran talent on the roster. Until we get a grasp of what the Redblacks have to offer, this is a difficult game to handicap. Bombers could find themselves slightly overvalued off last week's big, albeit surprising victory." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.
ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (0-0): Ottawa will be without receiver Carlton Mitchell, who is on the one-game injured list. Backup quarterback Thomas DeMarco jokes he is behind “the CFL’s Brett Favre” in Burris, 39, who brings 51,526 career passing yards of experience to the expansion franchise. Running back Chevon Walker looked sharp in preseason action, scoring three touchdowns in a win over the Montreal Alouettes.
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (1-0): Winnipeg added receiver Romby Bryant and defensive back Troy Stoudermire to its roster Sunday, presumably for depth purposes. First-year running back Nic Grigsby got his CFL career off to an excellent start with 122 rushing yards in Week 1. The Blue Bombers' defense forced three fumbles and recorded one sack against the Argonauts.
TRENDS:
* Blue Bombers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.
* Blue Bombers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 5-2 in Blue Bombers last 7 games in Week 2.
Week 2 CFL
Ottawa (0-0) @ Winnipeg (1-0) -- First game for expansion Ottawa team that split its pair of exhibition games; no idea what to expect from them. Winnipeg is favored for first time since its last game in 2012, and just third time in last 39 games- they upset Toronto 45-21 last week on this field, averaging 11.3 yards/pass attempt while also running ball for 132 yards. Winnipeg is just 10-27 SU since losing 2011 Grey Cup to BC; they can't be overconfident here.
Saskatchewan (1-0) @ Toronto (0-1) -- Road underdogs won SU in last four series games; dogs are 8-3-1 vs spread in dozen series tilts. Roughriders are 7-1 in last eight visits here, winning in last two trips, 36-10/39-28; they led Hamilton 24-1 at half last week in easy 31-10 win, with 164 rushing yards and three takeaways (+1). Toronto (-7) got drilled 45-21 in Winnipeg; they allowed 11.3 yards/pass attempt. Argos lost five of last six home games last year.
BC Lions (0-1) @ Montreal (0-1) -- Home side won last six series games; Lions lost last three visits here, by 4-5-1 point; underdogs are 8-4-1 vs spread in last 13 series games, with five of last seven going over total. BC turned ball over five times (-4) to Edmonton last week, getting upset in home opener, with QB Lulay out; they lost last three road games LY, allowing 34.7 ppg. Montreal lost in Calgary last week; Troy Smith was just 17-40/127 passing.
Hamilton (0-1) @ Edmonton (1-0) -- Eskimos won eight of last 12 series games, but TiCats' 30-29 (+3) win here LY snapped six-game skid here for Hamilton, which lost 31-10 last week in Regina, turning ball over three times (was 24-1 at half). Four of last five series games went over total. Edmonton pulled upset in Vancouver last week, picking off four passes, rallying back from 17-13 halftime deficit to win 27-20 (+8), taking advantage of QB Lulay's absence.