CFL Betting Recap - Week 19
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 3-1 (pending BC/EDM, TOR/MON) straight up in Week 19
Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 19
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 19
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 19
The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 19
Team Betting Notes
Hamilton (8-9) took care of Ottawa (2-15) by a 34-25 win for another road cover. The TiCats are 2-2 SU in their past four road games, but they have covered four in a row away from home.
The RedBlacks have hit the wall a bit, as they have dropped four in a row. While the offense has picked up a bit, the defense has allowed 28.5 points per game over the past four. The 'under' has still cashed in three of the past four, but that's because Ottawa's offense has managed an average of just 12.8 points per game during the span.
Winnipeg (7-11) wrapped up its season with a stunning win at Calgary (14-3), although the Stamps were resting with the top seed in the playoffs secured. The Blue Bombers had dropped eight in a row leading up to the finale.
Montreal (9-8) won for the sixth consecutive game, topping Toronto (7-10) by a 17-14 score. The Alouettes have posted a 5-0-1 ATS mark during their six-game win streak. The 'under' has hit in five of the six games during the stretch.
Edmonton (12-5) won its third straight game with a 37-3 demolition of the BC Lions (9-8). More importantly, the Esks have covered seven in a row heading into next week's season finale against Saskatchewan (9-8).
The 'under' hit in three of the four games in Week 19, and the under has hit in 10 of the past 16 games in the past month.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 20
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
We have reached the final week of the 2014 CFL regular season and a few of last week’s results have set the stage for a fantastic finish that will fill in any of the remaining pieces of the postseason puzzle.
Hamilton stayed in the playoff hunt in the East with a 34-25 victory over Ottawa last Friday night as a seven-point road favorite. The total in that game went OVER the 43½-point closing line. In a case of too little, too late Winnipeg ended its season on a high note with a stunning 18-13 victory against Calgary on Saturday as a 10-point road underdog with the total staying UNDER the 50½-point closing line.
Saturday’s other game was a 37-3 victory by Edmonton as a 5½-point home favorite against British Columbia. The total stayed UNDER in that contest against a closing line of 48. Montreal earned a spot in the Grey Cup Playoffs by knocking-off East rival Toronto 17-14 on Sunday as a slight 1½-point home favorite to close things out in Week 19. The total in that game stayed UNDER the 50-point closing line.
Friday, Nov. 7
Ottawa (2-15 SU, 6-10-1 ATS) at Toronto (7-10 SU, 6-11 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF
Game Overview
Ottawa continues to play for pride in its inaugural season in the CFL as the RedBlacks and it would love nothing more than to squash its division rival’s slim playoff hopes with a straight-up win on Friday night. While they did fail to cover their last time out, the RedBlacks have been a tough out down the stretch with a 4-3-1 record ATS in their last eight games.
Toronto not only lost a game it desperately needed to win, it may have also lost its quarterback Ricky Ray for the season finale after getting injured in last week’s contest. This would be a tremendous loss after he led the CFL this season by a wide margin in both total passing yards (4,595) and touchdown throws (28).
Betting Trends
One of Ottawa’s two SU wins this season came against Toronto in an 18-17 victory in Week 3 as a one-point home underdog. The total in that game stayed UNDER the closing 52-point line. The Argonauts are just 1-6 ATS as favorites this season.
Calgary (14-3 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) at British Columbia (9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -1½
Total: 46
Game Overview
You cannot put all that much weight on last week’s loss to Winnipeg considering that the Stampeders had already locked-up the top spot in the West Division a few weeks back. They will probably approach this game in the same cautious fashion to keep everyone as healthy as possible for a run to this year’s Grey Cup title.
At the other end of the spectrum there should be some serious concern in BC after last week’s dismal performance against a team it could very well face in the opening round of the West Division Playoffs. Kevin Glenn and John Beck combined for a total of just 95 yards passing in the loss to Edmonton. The Lions could not run the ball either with a total of 66 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
The Stampeders have won 17 of the last 25 meetings SU, yet they are just 1-4 SU in their last five trips to BC Place. The total has stayed UNDER in 11 of their last 14 road games and it has stayed UNDER in seven of the Lions’ last nine games at home.
Saturday, Nov. 8
Montreal (9-8 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) at Hamilton (8-9 SU, 8-9 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -3
Total: 45½
Game Overview
Montreal needs this win to secure a first-round bye as East Division champs and it is hard to see the Alouettes coming up short after posting an 8-1 SU record in their last nine games with a profitable 7-1-1 record ATS. The total has now stayed UNDER in five of their last six games behind a defense that has not allowed more than 17 points in any of those contests.
The Tiger-Cats can still win the East with a win on Saturday, or they can miss the playoffs altogether with a loss combined with a Toronto win. They have also staged an impressive run during the second half of the season with six SU wins in their last eight games and a 5-3 record ATS. The total went OVER against Ottawa last week after staying UNDER in eight of Hamilton’s previous 10 games.
Betting Trends
Montreal has lost four of its last six games against Hamilton SU overall and it is 0-5 SU in its last five road games against the Tiger-Cats. However, the Alouettes have managed to cover in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games played in Hamilton.
Edmonton (12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS) at Saskatchewan (9-8 SU, 6-11 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF
Game Overview
Edmonton is another team that is in position to rest some starters this week after wrapping up home field advantage for the opening round of the playoffs with last week’s win. The Eskimos have been the most profitable team to wager on in the CFL going back to mid-September with a perfect 7-0 record ATS. They went 5-2 SU during this seven-game run and the total stayed UNDER in five of their last six games.
The Roughriders are coming off a bye in what has been an extremely rough ride down the stretch. They have just one SU victory in their last seven games and they have failed to cover ATS in all seven contests. The total has gone OVER in three of their last four games. Amazingly enough, Saskatchewan has long since secured a spot in the postseason and it can still end-up as the No. 3 team in the East with a win and a BC loss.
Betting Trends
Edmonton is 8-4 SU in the last 12 meetings and it has covered ATS in the last five games between the two. The total in this series has gone OVER in 11 of the last 16 games played in Saskatchewan.
CFL Week 20 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett
Oddsshark.com
The Canadian Football League's regular-season schedule wraps up this week with two games on Friday and two games on Saturday, and the playoff picture in the East Division still hasn't been settled as we head into Week 20 of the slate.
Find all of this week's CFL betting lines plus updated Grey Cup futures at Bovada.
Ottawa at Toronto
Last 10 Meetings: Toronto 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS | OU 0-1
The Ottawa RedBlacks have only won two games SU all season long, but one of those victories came at home against the Toronto Argonauts back on July 18. The RedBlacks had been pegged as 1-point home underdogs in that contest, with the combined score falling well UNDER the game's posted total. The Argonauts need a win in this game and an Alouettes win over the Tiger-Cats on Saturday to make the playoffs.
Calgary at B.C.
Last 10 Meetings: B.C. 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 5-5
The Calgary Stampeders have already locked up first place in the West as they play on the road against a B.C. Lions team fighting for third place in the division with the Saskatchewan Roughriders heading into Week 20. The Stampeders and Lions have split their two meetings this season 1-1 both SU and ATS, with the OVER/UNDER going 1-1.
Montreal at Hamilton
Last 10 Meetings: Hamilton 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 5-5
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are on a five-game ATS losing streak against the Montreal Alouettes as those teams meet at Tim Hortons Field on Saturday. The Alouettes topped the Tiger-Cats 38-31 as a 1.5-point home underdog in their first meeting of the season on September 7; that was the first OVER result in their last four matchups. Montreal can clinch first place in the East with a win in this game, while Hamilton can finish first in the East with a win by more than seven points.
Edmonton at Saskatchewan
Last 10 Meetings: Saskatchewan 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS | OU 5-5
The Edmonton Eskimos will finish in second place in the West as they play in Saskatchewan against the Roughriders on Saturday night. The Riders, on a five-game SU losing streak, are also on 0-3 SU and 0-5 ATS runs against the Eskimos heading into the weekend, with Edmonton beating them 24-19 as a 4.5-point road favorite in their last meeting on October 19. That game was an UNDER result.
OTTAWA (2 - 15) at TORONTO (7 - 10) - 11/7/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 1-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 1-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CALGARY (14 - 3) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 8) - 11/7/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1996.
CALGARY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-4 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-5 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MONTREAL (9 - 8) at HAMILTON (8 - 9) - 11/8/2014, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 49-78 ATS (-36.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
MONTREAL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-3 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-3 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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EDMONTON (12 - 5) at SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 8) - 11/8/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 7-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-4 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA vs. TORONTO
Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Ottawa is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
CALGARY vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Calgary is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Calgary's last 21 games
British Columbia is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Calgary
British Columbia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
MONTREAL vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Montreal is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Hamilton is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
EDMONTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Edmonton is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Edmonton
Saskatchewan is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
StatFox Super Situations
EDMONTON at SASKATCHEWAN
Play Against - Any team (EDMONTON) good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 9+ games, after allowing 325 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games 24-4 since 1997. ( 85.7% | 19.6 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CALGARY at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (CALGARY) versus division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite 32-22 since 1997. ( 59.3% | 0.0 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
MONTREAL at HAMILTON
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (MONTREAL) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team 35-9 since 1997. ( 79.5% | 25.1 units ) 3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )
CFL Week 20
Ottawa (2-15) @ Toronto (7-12) — RedBlacks (+1.5) got first-ever win 18-17 at home vs Argonauts in Week 4, picking off two passes (+2 TO ratio) in game where Toronto outgained them 371-313; they’ve only won one game since, losing last four in a row (1-3 vs spread). Ottawa is 1-7 as road underdogs this year, losing 41-3/45-12 in last two road games. Argos lost two of last three games, are 0-5 vs spread in last five; they’re 1-4 as home favorites this year, 5-3 SU at home, with last three home wins by total of four points. Under is 7-4 in last 11 Ottawa games, 3-0 in Argos’ last three.
Calgary (14-3) @ BCLions (9-8) — Teams split pair of meetings in Calgary earlier this year; Lions (+4) won 25-24 in Week 6, rallying from down 21-10 at half. Calgary (-6.5) won rematch 14-7 five weeks ago, running ball for 189 yards and shutting Lions out in second half (BC led 7-3 at half). Stampeders lost five fumbles (-4) in 18-13 loss at Winnipeg last week, game they led 10-3 at half; they’re 6-1-1 as road favorites this year, with only loss at Montreal. Lions lost four of last six games; they get crushed 37-3 in Edmonton last week- they’re 4-4 SU at home. Three of Stamps’ last four visits to Vancouver stayed under total.
Montreal (9-8) @ Hamilton (8-9) — Home side won last seven series games, with Alouettes losing last seven visits here, with both losses LY (at Guelph) by three points. Als won last six games (5-1) vs spread; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs this year, but they’ve won last three on road, with two of three at expansion Ottawa. TiCats won five of last seven games, with losses by combined total of three points; Hamilton is 6-2 at home; five of those eight games were decided by either 1 or 2 points. Five of last six Montreal games, five of last seven Ti-Cat tilts, three of last four series games stayed under total.
Edmonton (12-5) @ Saskatchewan (9-8) — Free-falling defending champs lost last five games (-9 TO ratio in those games), are 0-7 vs spread in last seven; they lost 24-0 (+4.5) in Edmonton five weeks ago, then 24-19 (+4.5) at home to Eskimos two weeks ago. Riders are 5-3 at home, losing last two there- their last three home wins are all by 5 or less points. Edmonton won five of last seven games (7-0 vs spread) with only losses by total of three points; they’ve covered six of eight road games. Five of last six Eskimo games stayed under total, as did three of last four series games, but three of last four Rider games went over.
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