CFL Betting Recap - Week 19
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Underdogs went 3-1 SU in Week 19
Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 19
Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 19
Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 19
The 'Under' went 4-0 in Week 19
Team Betting Notes
Defense is starting to ramp up for the playoffs, as the 'under' went 4-0 in Week 19, and is 7-1 over the past two weekends of CFL action.
Calgary (15-2-1) finally lost again, and not many people figured it would be Montreal (6-11) would be the team rising up to get them. The Alouettes have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, topping the Stampeders 17-8 at Stade Percival Molson for a third straight 'under' result for Montreal. The Stamps elected to rest QB Bo Levi Mitchell, going to backup QB Drew Tate for the start.
Hamilton (7-10) suffered a painful 29-26 overtime loss at home at the hands of Edmonton (9-8 ), as the Tiger-Cats are now 1-4 SU over their past five and in the midst of an ugly 1-6 ATS skid.
The Eskimos are enjoying a renaissance after an ugly September, going 4-1 SU/ATS over their past five games. The Esks will wrap up the regular season with a home game against Toronto (5-12).
The Argonauts were off in Week 19, but they head into the regular season finale with the Eskimos winless since Sept. 11, and 1-10 SU/ATS over the past 11 games after a 4-2 SU/ATS start.
The BC Lions (11-6) remain the biggest threat to the Stamps. They posted a solid 24-6 win on the road against Saskatchewan (5-12), as the Roughriders had been playing well. The 'under' cashed for the third straight game, and sixth time in seven tries for the Roughriders. The two sides meet again in the season finale Saturday in Vancouver. BC is 2-0 SU/ATS in the two previous meetings this season.
Ottawa (8-8-1) went to Winnipeg (10-7) and dropped the Blue Bombers 23-10, knocking Winnipeg out of a tie for second place in the West Division. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five games for Ottawa.
WINNIPEG (10 - 7) at OTTAWA (8 - 8 - 1) - 11/4/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL (6 - 11) at HAMILTON (7 - 10) - 11/5/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 49-80 ATS (-39.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-4 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-3 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (5 - 12) at EDMONTON (9 - 8 ) - 11/5/2016, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (5 - 12) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (11 - 6) - 11/5/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-1 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG vs. OTTAWA
Winnipeg is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 12 games when playing Winnipeg
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
MONTREAL vs. HAMILTON
Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Montreal is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Hamilton's last 15 games at home
Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
TORONTO vs. EDMONTON
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Saskatchewan is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Saskatchewan's last 10 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
British Columbia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
StatFox Super Situations
WINNIPEG at OTTAWA
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse 101-51 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 44.9 units ) 7-5 this year. ( 58.3% | 1.5 units )
MONTREAL at HAMILTON
Play On - Any team vs the money line (HAMILTON) off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record 67-51 since 1997. ( 56.8% | 0.0 units ) 4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.0 units )
SASKATCHEWAN at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SASKATCHEWAN) dominant team (outgain opp. by 1+ YPP) against a good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP), after gaining 250 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games 23-3 since 1997. ( 88.5% | 19.7 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CFL Betting Notes - Week 20
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Week 19 Betting Recap
Heading into the final weekend of the CFL regular season, Edmonton is coming off a big victory on the road against Hamilton this past Friday in a 29-26 win as a 2½-point underdog. The road teams kept things rolling on Saturday with Ottawa beating Winnipeg 23-10 as a 5½-point underdog and British Columbia cruising past Saskatchewan 24-6 as a five-point favorite in the first of two home-and-home matchups to close out the year.
Calgary closed out its regular season this past Sunday with a stunning 17-8 loss to Montreal as an eight-point road favorite to snap its 14-game straight-up winning streak.
Friday, Nov. 4
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) vs Ottawa RedBlacks (8-8-1 SU, 7-10 ATS)
Point-spread: PICK
Total: 51
Game Overview
The Blue Bombers could only manage three points in the first half of last week’s loss at home to Ottawa and while Matt Nichols ended the day with 289 passing yards on 35 completions, he threw three times as many interceptions (3) as touchdown passes (1). Andrew Harris still had a good day running the ball with 98 yards on 12 carries and he is currently second in the CFL in rushing this season with 914 yards.
Ottawa may only be .500 on the year with last week’s win, but that is good enough to clinch a second-straight East Division title. While that will take some of the meaning away from this Friday’s rematch given that its path in the playoffs has been set, you can still expect Henry Burris to be slinging the ball down field after completing 69.7 percent of his 33 attempts for 338 yards against Winnipeg last week.
Betting Trends
With last week’s win, the RedBlacks have now won four of their last five games against Winnipeg SU and they have a 3-1 edge against the spread in the last four meetings. The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 12 games.
Saturday, Nov. 5
Montreal Alouettes (6-11 SU, 8-9 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-10 SU, 6-11 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -2½
Total: 46½
Game Overview
Montreal’s season may be coming to end regardless of what happens in this Saturday’s game, but there could be some hope for next year behind quarterback Vernon Adams Jr, who added a spark to this offense over the past two weeks. He was forced out of Sunday’s game with an injury, so the Alouettes may have to go with Rakeem Cato under center in this matchup.
The Tiger-Cats will look to end their regular season on a bright note after winning just once both SU and ATS in their last five games. The loss to Edmonton stayed UNDER the closing 57-point total line and it has stayed UNDER in four of Hamilton’s last six games. Zach Collaros got the start in that game and he threw for 273 yards and a score while completing 26-of-40 attempts. The Tiger-Cats gained just 59 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
Hamilton has won the first two meetings in this East Division clash SU, but the series is split ATS after Montreal covered as a 10-point road underdog on Sept. 16 in a 20-17 loss. The total has stayed UNDER in both games and it has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings overall.
Toronto Argonauts (5-12 SU, 5-12 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (9-8 SU, 7-9-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton OFF
Total: OFF
Game Overview
The Argonauts are another team headed to an early offseason in what has been a complete second half collapse. Heading into last week’s bye, they had posted just one win in their last 12 games both SU and ATS. Toronto has an offense that is averaging 21.5 points a game complementing a defense that is giving up an average of 31 points a game.
Edmonton’s Mike Reilly only put the ball up 31 times in last week’s win against Hamilton for 239 yards and two scores on 18 completions. The big story in that game was John White running the ball with 132 yards rushing on just 15 carries. He has now rushed for 886 yards on the year, which is the fourth-highest total in the CFL.
Betting Trends
The Eskimos rolled to a 46-23 victory against Toronto in late August as three-point road favorites and the total went way OVER the 52½-point closing line. Edmonton now has a slight 3-2 SU edge in the past five meetings while going 4-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in seven of the last eight matchups.
Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-12, 9-8 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (11-6 SU, 12-5 ATS)
Point-spread: BC OFF
Total: OFF
Game Overview
The Roughriders waited a bit too long to get things going this season, but despite back-to-back losses (SU and ATS) in their last two games they are 4-2 SU since mid-September and a profitable 7-2 ATS over their last nine games. The total stayed UNDER 53 points in last week’s loss to BC and it has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games. This offense only generated 20 points combined in its last two games after averaging 26.8 points during a recent four-game winning streak.
The Lions have put themselves in excellent position to host the West Division Semifinal Round game, but they still need to win on Saturday to lock things up. BC got a solid effort from Jeramiah Johnson on the ground last week with 101 rushing yards on 16 carries and you can expect that he will once again be a big part of the offensive game plan in the backend of this home-and-home series.
Betting Trends
The Lions’ SU winning streak against Saskatchewan now stands at five games with a 4-0-1 record ATS in those five meetings. The total stayed well UNDER 53 points in last week’s win after going OVER in three of the previous four meetings.
CFL Week 20
Winnipeg (10-7) @ Ottawa (8-8-1) — RedBlacks (+5.5) won first meeting this year 23-10 in Winnipeg last week; Ottawa picked off three passes in winning fourth straight series game, with last three staying under total. Blue Bombers are 2-3 in last five games but won six of last seven on road, with lone loss 36-34 at Calgary in Week 14. Ottawa is 2-3 in last five games, losing last two home games in OT- they’re 2-5-1 overall at home. Four of Ottawa’s last five games went over total; over is 8-2 in Winnipeg’s last ten games.
Montreal (6-11) @ Hamilton (7-10) — TiCats won first two meetings 31-7 (-2) in Montreal, 20-17 (-10) here- they’ve won last three series games by 12-24-3 points- under is 9-2 in last 11 series games, with last five all staying under total. Alouettes won last two games 19-14/17-8, upsetting Calgary LW; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Montreal is 5-3 as a road underdog this year. Hamilton lost four of its last five games; they’re 2-5 as a home favorite. Four of last six TigerCat games stayed under the total.
Toronto (5-12) @ Edmonton (9-8 )— Argonauts lost last six games, are 1-10 vs spread in last 11; their last seven losses are all by 13+ points. Toronto is 3-5 as road underdog this year, with last cover on road back in July. Eskimos (-3) won first meeting 46-23 in Toronto August 20. Edmonton won four of last five games after losing consecutive OT games before that; Eskimos are playing at home for first time since September 23; they’re 1-5 vs spread as a home favorite this season- they’re 4-4 at home SU. Four of last six Edmonton games stayed under.
Saskatchewan (5-12) @ British Columbia (11-6) — Lions won both meetings this year, 40-27 (+1.5) July 16, 24-6 (-4) last week; both games were in Regina. Roughriders lost 35-32/46-20 in last two visits here. Under is 16-5 in last 21 series games. Saskatchewan started season 1-10, then won four in a row, before losing 19-14/24-6 in last two games; Riders are won their last two road games SU, covered their last four- they’re 5-3 overall as road dog. BC won its last two games 32-25/24-6; they’re 4-3 as home favorites- three of their last four home games went over.
Armadillosports.com
StatFox Super Situations
WINNIPEG at OTTAWA
Play On - Underdogs or pick (OTTAWA) in a game involving two average defensive teams (23-28 PPG) after 9 or more games 122-65 since 1997. ( 65.2% | 50.5 units ) 4-5 this year. ( 44.4% | -1.5 units )
MONTREAL at HAMILTON
Play On - Any team vs the money line (HAMILTON) off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record 67-51 since 1997. ( 56.8% | 0.0 units ) 4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.0 units )
SASKATCHEWAN at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SASKATCHEWAN) dominant team (outgain opp. by 1+ YPP) against a good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP), after gaining 250 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games23-3 since 1997. ( 88.5% | 19.7 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
TORONTO at EDMONTON
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points 58-27 since 1997. ( 68.2% | 28.3 units ) 1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )
Montreal at Hamilton
Montreal: 1-7 ATS after playing a game at home
Hamilton: 31-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7
Toronto at Edmonton
Toronto: 1-7 ATS off a non-conference game
Edmonton: 5-1 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Saskatchewan at British Columbia
Saskatchewan: 1-9 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
British Columbia: 8-1 ATS off a division game