CFL Betting Notes - Week 3
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The new CFL regular season is just two weeks old and Winnipeg and Edmonton’s four straight-up victories are already more than half of their combined win total for 2013. The Blue Bombers made it two straight with last Thursday’s 36-28 victory as 3½-point home favorites over Ottawa with the total going OVER the 53-point closing line.
Saturday’s action started out with Montreal shutting down British Columbia 24-9 as a three-point home underdog with the total staying UNDER 49½ points. The Eskimos remained perfect on the year with a 28-24 win against Hamilton, but they could not cover the closing 4½-point spread as favorites at home. The total in that contest stayed just UNDER the 54-point closing line.
Toronto roared back from an ugly opening week loss with a convincing 48-15 romp over Saskatchewan as a two-point home underdog on Sunday to close-out action in Week 2. The total in that game went OVER the 56-point line.
Friday, July 11
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -2½
Total: 50½
Game Overview
Winnipeg’s new-found success after winning just three games last season has to be heavily attributed to the early play of quarterback Drew Willy. He has thrown for a CFL-high 615 yards in two games while completing 66.7 percent of his throws. The Blue Bombers also lead the league in scoring with 81 points.
It has been a tale of two weeks for the re-tooled Montreal offense. After coming up flat in Week 1 with just eight points, this unit behind quarterback Troy Smith looked much more efficient against BC last week. One of the biggest differences was a rushing attack that gained 203 yards against the Lions.
Betting Trends
The Blue Bombers have covered against the spread in five of their last six trips to Montreal and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 14 games played at Percival Molson Stadium.
Ottawa RedBlacks (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -6½
Total: 54½
Game Overview
The RedBlacks looked like a veteran ball club in the first quarter of their first ever CFL regular season game by jumping out to a 21-7 lead over Winnipeg, but their defense could not hold on to preserve a win. Henry Burris looked fairly sharp throwing the ball with 241 yards and two touchdowns while completing passes to seven different players.
Edmonton is halfway to last season’s win total on the strength of quarterback Mike Reilly’s arm. He completed 29-of-40 attempts for 253 yards against Hamilton last week after putting up similar numbers in an opening week victory against BC. Also give credit to a much-improved Eskimos’ defense that was ranked second-to-last in points allowed last year.
Betting Trends
The Eskimos come into this inter-division matchup with a 0-4 record ATS in their last four home games and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in six of Edmonton’s last nine games following a win SU.
Saturday, July 12
Calgary Stampeders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Toronto -1½
Total: 53
Game Overview
Calgary enjoyed the week off after posting an impressive 29-8 victory over Montreal in Week 1 as a 7½-point favorite at home. Bo Levi Mitchell established himself as the new starting quarterback for the Stampeders with 313 yards passing and two touchdowns while completing 64 percent of his throws.
The Argonauts are another team from the East that quickly returned to form after getting crushed in a 45-21 loss to Winnipeg in Week 1 as seven-point road favorites. Ricky Ray was at his best this past Sunday with 407 yards passing and three touchdown throws. Toronto rolled-up 23 fourth quarter points to blow a tight game wide open.
Betting Trends
The Stampeders have had their share of problems at the Rogers Centre with a 1-5 record ATS in their last six trips there. They are just 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings overall and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Toronto.
British Columbia Lions (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -6½
Total: 48½
Game Overview
BC came into the new season as 5Dimes’ favorite to win this year’s Grey Cup title and while a 0-2 start is not the end of the world, this week’s game suddenly looks like a must win. The offense sputtered under quarterback Kevin Glenn so the Lions turned to John Beck in later part of Saturday’s loss in hopes of finding a suitable replacement for the injured Travis Lulay, who remains out with a shoulder injury.
The defending champs played the part in a 31-10 season-opening victory against Hamilton as 3 ½-point home favorites, but they had no answer for Toronto in Week 2. Darian Durant threw for 295 yards and two scores against the Argonauts, but two costly interceptions including one that was returned 108 yards for a touchdown certainly did not help Saskatchewan’s cause.
Betting Trends
The Lions have gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games against their West Division rivals and the total in this matchup has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings at Mosaic Stadium. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings SU.
Week 3 CFL Games
Winnipeg (2-0) @ Montreal (1-1) -- First road game for Bombers after scoring 81 points in two home wins, when they averaged 10.2 yards/pass attempt. Montreal split its first two games, completing only 34-69 passes- they've lost four of last five games with Winnipeg, with visitor winning five of last six series games- Bombers won last three visits here, by 5-8-7. Alouettes ran ball for 203 yards in upset win over BC last week, with three takeaways (+2).
Ottawa (0-1) @ Edmonton (2-0) -- Eskimos have 10 taekaways (+6) in winning first two tilts, by 7-4 points, despite not leading either game at halftime. Edmonton covered only twice in last six games as a favorite. RedBlacks raced out to 21-7 lead in their first-ever game in Winnipeg last week, led 21-17 at half, lost 36-28, despite a +2 turnover ratio. Four of last six Edmonton games stayed under total. Home favorites are 4-1 vs spread in first two weeks this season.
Calgary (1-0) @ Toronto (1-1) -- Underdogs won last eight series games SU, with Argonauts winning seven of the eight; Calgary won here LY, snapping four-game skid in Skydome, with losses by 3-2-3-13 points-- four of those five games went over total. Stampeeders had bye last week after 29-8 win at home over Montreal in Week 1. Argos threw ball for 407 yards in easy home win over Saskatchewan last week, after they got waxed 45-21 in opener at Winnipeg.
BCLions (0-2) @ Saskatchewan (1-1) -- Lions were outscored 38-12 in last three halves after leading opener at half; they've turned ball over eight times (-6) in two games- they lost four of last five visits to Regina, losing 29-25 (+4) here in playoffs last fall. Ten of last eleven series games stayed under total. Riders got blasted 48-15 in Toronto last week, giving up 568 yards, 407 thru the air. Riders have 280 rushing yards in two games; BC allowed 203 yards on ground in loss at Montreal last week.
Armadillosports.com
WINNIPEG (2 - 0) at MONTREAL (1 - 1) - 7/11/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-3 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OTTAWA (0 - 1) at EDMONTON (2 - 0) - 7/11/2014, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CALGARY (1 - 0) at TORONTO (1 - 1) - 7/12/2014, 6:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-1 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 2) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 1) - 7/12/2014, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) in July games since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 47-24 ATS (+20.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-4 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
JULY 11, 7:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Montreal is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
JULY 11, 10:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. EDMONTON
Ottawa is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Edmonton
Ottawa is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Edmonton's last 8 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games at home
JULY 12, 6:30 PM
CALGARY vs. TORONTO
Calgary is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
Toronto is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
JULY 12, 9:30 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. SASKATCHEWAN
British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of British Columbia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games
CFL Week 2 Betting News and Notes
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
Here is the first installment of my weekly CFL News and Notes as we examine each team from a betting perspective.
Toronto Argonauts (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Give Toronto’s completely revamped defense credit for following up an embarrassing effort against Winnipeg in Week 1 (45 points, 450 yards allowed) with a much better performance in Saturday’s 48-15 blowout win against defending Grey Cup champion Saskatchewan. However, the Roughriders offense suffered cluster injuries at WR and RB and Anthony Allen was yanked out of the game for fumbling in the first half. That has to be taken into consideration moving forward because as mentioned this Argos D is still very much a work in progress (note that they acquired veteran, all-star CB Dwight Anderson from Saskatchewan via trade yesterday which should only help). Overall, quarterback Ricky Ray is arguably the best in the league and moving forward it will be up to him and the offense to carry Toronto to victory until the defense has time to gain some traction.
Montreal Alouettes (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
I’ve talked on the Sportsmemo Podcast about the multitude of problems plaguing the Montreal offense. They have a new quarterback, a rebuilt and struggling offensive line, and a first-year offensive coordinator after their previous OC was let go during training camp. It was a problem in Week 1’s 29-8 loss at Calgary and to a lesser degree in last week’s 24-9 win over BC. The Alouettes still only scored two touchdowns in the win and one came courtesy of a pick six. Montreal relied more on the running game which helped quarterback Troy Smith. He had a much better completion rate but many of his passes were dink-and-dunks as the Alouettes made a concerted effort to minimize the number of deep shots down the field. The Montreal defense however has been excellent. They wore down in the second half against Calgary but put a blanket over BC’s offense and forced two interceptions from Kevin Glenn. I had Montreal pegged to be a strong Under team and they haven’t disappointed (0-2 O/U).
Ottawa RedBlacks (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
The CFL’s brand new franchise lost their debut to Winnipeg, 36-28. After a Week 1 bye head coach Rick Campbell had his team ready to go as the RedBlacks stormed out to an early 21-7 lead and dominated most of the first half. However, the Blue Bombers made good adjustments and we saw Ottawa’s offense struggle to move the football in the second half while their defense didn’t force many stops against Drew Willy and the Winnipeg offense. Veteran quarterback Henry Burris played well going 17-for-30 with a pair of TDs. Despite the loss, this was still a positive for the RedBlacks – although a frustrating result for Ottawa backers who were in position to cash tickets until the fourth quarter. They came up short both SU and ATS but I still think Ottawa will be competitive moving forward.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Hamilton is dealing with a lot of issues despite being a Grey Cup contender heading into the season. The Ticats have a woeful offensive line that has suffered key personnel losses. It got so bad that quarterback Zach Collaros to take a wicked hit that knocked him out of the game and put his status for this week in question. The defense improved but the Ticats are still taking too many penalties and critical turnovers cost them against Edmonton and turned a fourth quarter lead into a 28-24 loss. To make matter worse news broke yesterday that Hamilton’s new stadium (Tim Hortons Field) will not be ready for their first two home games prompting them to play at Ron Joyce Stadium on the much smaller McMaster University campus. Already off to an 0-2 start and dealing with injuries and off the field issues, Hamilton’s upcoming bye week couldn’t have come at a better time.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Off last year’s 3-15 disaster the Winnipeg Blue Bombers notched two straight home wins against Toronto and Ottawa to kick off the campaign. First-year head coach Mike O’Shea has this team well prepared and playing with great energy and intensity. Quarterback Drew Willy has surpassed all reasonable expectations through two games and they seemed to have found a dynamic and explosive RB to complement the passing attack with Nic Grigsby (3 TDs last week). Last year’s league-worst defense has held its own so far and it has resulted in 2-0 SU and ATS marks. If the Blue Bombers hope to keep it rolling, they will need to show what they are made of in their first road game of the season on Friday night against the Montreal Alouettes.
Edmonton Eskimos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Edmonton is very similar to Winnipeg – a bad team last year (4-14) with a new head coach and a 2-0 start. Head coach Chris Jones was a great hire after serving many years as defensive coordinator for both Calgary and Toronto. He has instilled hard work and discipline with this team; something that was lacking during the Kavis Reed era. Quarterback Mike Reilly is more comfortable running the offense in his second season. The defense remains an area of strength with the likes of Odell Willis and J.C. Sherritt causing problems up front. I had Edmonton circled as an under-the-radar sleeper that could produce profits but I also didn’t expect to see them priced as significant favorites in back-to-back weeks. Edmonton closed as 5-point favorites last week against Hamilton but its 4-point win failed to cash tickets at the closing number.
Calgary Stampeders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Calgary enjoyed an early season Week 2 bye after toppling Montreal 29-8 in Week 1. The Stampeders still have plenty of quarterback concerns – can either Bo Levi Mitchell or Drew Tate consistently win games for them? Mitchell got the Week 1 starting nod and performed admirably but did nothing eye popping. The good thing for Calgary is they have workhorse running back Jon Cornish to offset any shortcomings at the quarterback position. The defense was dominant against Montreal but will be put to the test by Ricky Ray and the Toronto Argonauts this weekend.
Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
It’s been a tale of two games for the defending champs. They enjoyed a 31-10 blowout win against Hamilton in Week 1 and suffered a blowout loss against Toronto, 48-15. Saskatchewan is still very good but part of me thinks this team will take a small step back in 2014. They lost multiple key pieces from last year’s championship team on both sides of the football – a good explanation as to why we saw two very different results. As long as quarterback Darian Durant is under center there’s a chance for victory but there are still some problems to address, namely a defense that got chewed up by Ricky Ray and the Argos last week and an offense lacking depth at the skill positions.
BC Lions (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Whatever a team can do wrong BC has done it in its first two games. The Lions are getting dreadful quarterback play from Kevin Glenn who has thrown 6 INTs and just 1 TD. Part of Glenn’s problem has come from BC’s porous offensive line. The Lions defense has been slightly better and deserves credit for keeping them close against Montreal. But ultimately, the team’s fate rests of what is currently a bad offense. They can’t run the football as Andrew Harris hasn’t gotten much open space. The receiving corps is mediocre compared to some of the past editions, and as mentioned the offensive line isn’t holding up. BC is 2-0 to the Under to go along with their 0-2 SU and ATS marks and it will be interesting if both of those side and total trends continue this week as they head to Saskatchewan to face the Roughriders on their always formidable home field.
Game of the Day: CFL Double Header
Covers.com
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes (-2.5, 49.5)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers take their red-hot offence to Montreal on Friday to face the Alouettes. Winnipeg won its first two games at home, scoring a league-leading 81 points. The Alouettes' defence looked strong in their Week 2 home opener, but will have its hands full against Drew Willy and the Blue Bombers’ passing game.
Alouettes quarterback Troy Smith will need his team’s defence to be strong again unless he can begin throwing touchdowns. Willy is off to a flying start under centre for Winnipeg, completing 40-of-60 passes and throwing four touchdowns, but Montreal’s defensive line promises to be the toughest he has faced. Alouettes defensive end John Bowman recorded four sacks in Week 2, while defensive tackle Scott Paxson caught an interception and forced a fumble.
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Als as 2.5-point home faves. The total opened 50.5 at most shops, but has dropped one point to 49.5.
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (2-0): Running back Nic Grigsby is quickly becoming a star in Winnipeg, recording 251 combined yards (184 rushing) and three touchdowns. Willy is also working well with slotbacks Aaron Kelly and Nick Moore, who have received 283 of Willy’s 615 passing yards. Kick returner Aaron Woods leads the league in return yards with 287.
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-1): Smith completed nine touchdown passes as a rookie in 2013, but has zero touchdowns, one interception and a 50 percent pass-completion rate through two starts in 2014. Linebacker Marc-Olivier Brouillette caught the second interception of his career in Week 2 - something he will expected to do more of in his expanded role within the defence. Running back Brandon Whitaker has 135 rushing yards and is on pace to have his best season since 2011.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-0 in Alouettes last six games overall.
* Blue Bombers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Montreal.
* Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Montreal.
CONSENSUS: Sixty-three percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are coming in on the Alouettes.
Ottawa Redblacks at Edmonton Eskimos (-6.5, 54.5)
The Ottawa Redblacks visit the Edmonton Eskimos on Friday looking for their first victory after letting their CFL debut slip away. Edmonton looks strong on offence and defence through two games but has yet to establish a running game. Ottawa stormed out of the gate in its first game before being outscored 19-7 in the second half and will need to play a full game against the Eskimos.
Veteran quarterback Henry Burris looks like he hasn’t lost a step with his new team, throwing for 241 yards and two touchdowns in his Redblacks debut. Burris will face an Edmonton defence that has recorded a league-high seven interceptions. Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly has better protection in front of him to start 2014 and it shows in his 68 percent completion rate and four touchdowns.
LINE HISTORY: The Eskimos opened -6.5 and the total has also held at the opening number of 54.5.
ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (0-1): Running back Chevon Walker made the move to Ottawa from the Hamilton Tiger-Cats along with Burris and recorded 99 combined yards and two touchdowns in his debut. Defensive back Jerrell Gavins caught an interception in his CFL debut but was fined for a late and low hit on Winnipeg Blue Bombers quarterback Drew Willy. Defensive lineman Jonathan Williams matched a career-high with two sacks in his first Redblacks game.
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (2-0): Defensive lineman Odell Willis was fined for a hit on Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback Zach Collaros after replays revealed contact with Collaros’ neck. Edmonton signed former Alouettes running back Noel Devine in an effort to bolster its running game. Kicker Grant Shaw leads the league in kicking points with 25.
TRENDS:
* Eskimos are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Eskimos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in July.
* Over is 18-8-1 in Eskimos last 27 games overall.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing Edmonton.