CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The underdogs dominated the first two weeks of the 2015 CFL regular season with a number of stunning upsets, but it was a mixed bag of results in Week 3.
Edmonton got things started last Thursday night with a 47-17 rout of Ottawa as a seven-point home favorite. In the first of two Friday games, Winnipeg got past Montreal 25-23 but it could not cover as a three-point home favorite. Later that night, British Columbia also closed as a three-point favorite at home and it snuck past Saskatchewan 35-32 in overtime for the PUSH. Week 3 closed things out on Monday with Calgary holding off Toronto 25-20, but failing to cover as an eight-point home favorite.
Opening odds provided by 5Dimes.
Thursday, July 16
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -3
Total: 53½
Game Overview
Hamilton split its first two games on the road this season with a 24-23 loss to Calgary as a six-point underdog followed by a 52-26 romp over Winnipeg as a one-point underdog heading into last week’s bye. Quarterback Zach Collaros is off to a strong start with 635 yards passing while completing 74.6 percent of his 71 attempts.
Montreal lost two quarterbacks to injury in Week 1, but it got a huge spark from Rakeem Cato in the Alouettes stunning 29-11 upset of Calgary in Week 2 as 9½-point home underdog. In Friday’s loss to Winnipeg, Cato threw for 317 yards after completing 22-of-31 attempts but he was also intercepted twice including one that was returned for a touchdown.
Betting Trends
The Tiger-Cats are 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 road games, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against Montreal. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven road games against the Alouettes.
Friday, July 17
Edmonton Eskimos (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -3½
Total: 49
Game Overview
Edmonton returned to form in the opener of this home-and-home series after losing to Toronto 26-11 on the road in Week 1 as a 7½-point road favorite. Matt Nichols took over the reins at quarterback for an injured Mike Reilly and threw for 212 yards and three touchdowns in the win against the RedBlacks last Thursday.
The RedBlacks equaled last season’s two-game win total in the first two weeks of this season with victories against Montreal on the road and British Columbia at home both straight-up and ATS. The total stayed UNDER in those two wins before going OVER the 45½-point closing line in Thursday’s loss.
Betting Trends
The Eskimos have now won all three meetings against the expansion RedBlacks SU dating back to last season. They also have a 2-1 edge ATS and the total had stayed UNDER in both games in 2014.
British Columbia Lions (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -3½
Total: 50½
Game Overview
The Lions evened their SU record on the year with last week’s win in this home-and-home series after getting stunned by Ottawa in their season opener. Travis Lulay looked sharp at quarterback in last Friday’s win by throwing for 404 yards and three scores while completing 34-of-44 attempts. Austin Collie and Andrew Harris combined for 12 receptions for 158 yards and one score in that game.
Saskatchewan has dug itself into an early 0-3 hole following the loss of quarterback Darian Durant in Week 1 with a season-ending ankle injury. In his place, Kevin Glenn has thrown for a CFL-high 868 yards while completing an impressive 79.3 percent of his 87 attempts, but this has yet to translate to victories on the field. The Roughriders have allowed an average of 35.7 points in those three losses.
Betting Trends
BC has now won the last three meetings SU, but it is just 1-3-2 ATS in the last six games between the two. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last seven games in Saskatchewan.
Saturday, July 18
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -10
Total: 53
Game Overview
The Blue Bombers are off to a solid 2-1 SU start behind an offense that has averaged 27 points through their first three games. This is a huge turnaround from a unit that failed to score more than 23 points in any of its final seven games last year. Quarterback Drew Willy was back in the lineup on Friday night and he completed 20-of-29 attempts for 251 yards.
Calgary closed out Week 3 with a tight victory over the Argonauts to bounce back from a stunning 29-11 loss to Montreal the week before as a 9½-point road favorite. The Stampeders got a big effort from wide receiver Eric Rogers on Monday night with six receptions for 114 yards and a score. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell ended the night with 303 passing yards and two touchdown throws.
Betting Trends
Winnipeg has failed to cover in four of the last seven meetings overall and it is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against Calgary. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their five road games against the Stampeders.
HAMILTON (1 - 1) at MONTREAL (1 - 2) - 7/16/2015, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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EDMONTON (1 - 1) at OTTAWA (2 - 1) - 7/17/2015, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 2-1 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (0 - 3) - 7/17/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in July games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 105-71 ATS (+26.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 50-26 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WINNIPEG (2 - 1) at CALGARY (2 - 1) - 7/18/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 112-82 ATS (+21.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 2-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Hamilton's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Hamilton's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games at home
Montreal is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
EDMONTON vs. OTTAWA
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 8 games at home
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of British Columbia's last 14 games when playing Saskatchewan
British Columbia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing British Columbia
WINNIPEG vs. CALGARY
Winnipeg is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
CFL Week 4
Hamilton (1-1) @ Montreal (1-2) -- TiCats won six of last eight series games, beating Als in playoffs last two years; home side won eight of last nine series games, with Hamilton losing five of last six visits here, last three by 2-31-7 points. Hamilton had bye last week after split of first two games (both on road); they led 18-10 at half in Calgary in their loss. Montreal lost two of first three games, allowing 18.7 ppg-- all three of those games stayed under total.
Edmonton (1-1) @ Ottawa (2-1) -- Ottawa won first two games as underdogs, allowing 16 ppg, but Eskimos were coming off a bye, smoked RedBlacks 46-17 last week, it was 36-11 at half; Edmonton outgained them 376-221 after they beat Ottawa 27-11/10-8 in two meetings LY. Eskimos were outgained 484-259 in opening 26-11 loss at Toronto; they've turned ball over eight times in two games (-3). Ottawa threw six INTs in its first three games.
British Columbia (1-1) @ Saskatchewan (0-3) -- Roughriders are 0-3 despite leading all three games in 4th quarter; they lost last two games in OT- they were outgained 480-442 last week in Vancouver. Riders led 17-10/7-6 at half last two weeks, allowed 32-29 points after the half. Saskatchewan won four of last six series games; under is now 14-3 in last 17 series games. Lions scored 7-6 points in first half of first two games- they lost road opener at Ottawa.
Winnipeg (2-1) @ Calgary (2-1) -- Stampeders won 10 of last 11 series games, winning last 11 here (2-2-2 vs spread in last six). Calgary is 0-3 vs spread this year with three games staying under total- their two wins were 24-23/25-20, both at home. Bombers allowed 33.7 ppg in 2-1 start, winning only road game 30-26 (+8) in Regina- two of their three games this year went over total. Over is 6-3 in first series meeting of season the last nine years.
Armadillosports.com
Game of the Day: Tiger-Cats at Alouettes
By Covers.com
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes (+3, 53)
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to notch their first regular-season win in Montreal in nearly 13 years when they face the Alouettes on Thursday. The Tiger-Cats have dropped 17 consecutive regular-season road games to the Alouettes and hope to emerge victorious in La Belle Province for the first time since Oct. 20, 2002.
Hamilton is coming off a bye week following an impressive 52-26 triumph over the West Division-leading Winnipeg Blue Bombers and has a chance to post back-to-back wins for the first time this season. Montreal looks to return to the win column following a 25-23 setback to the Blue Bombers on Friday. The Alouettes wasted a stellar performance from their defense, which did not give up a single touchdown on Friday, and are in danger of starting the season off 1-3 for the third consecutive year. Montreal has had Hamilton's number for the last decade at Molson Stadium, but has dropped the last two meetings overall - including a 40-24 decision in the East Division final last year.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers sent out Als +3, which still stands. The total opened at 53.5 and is down to 53.
INJURY REPORT: Ti-Cats - WR Luke Tasker (Questionable, lower body). Alouettes - Markell Carter (Questionable, undisclosed), WR Kyle Graves (Questionable, undisclosed), S James Tuck (Questionable, undisclosed).
ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Zach Collaros went 26-of-33 for 354 yards and two touchdowns before being rested in the fourth quarter in the blowout win versus Winnipeg. Bakari Grant hauled in five passes for 117 yards and a touchdown while Terrell Sinkfield added three receptions for 78 yards as Hamilton scored 38 first-half points, which was the most by a road team in 23 years. Defensive back Johnny Sears Jr, who leads the team with two interceptions, has not practiced since picking up a knock against the Bombers while running back Nic Grigsby and wide receiver Quincy McDuffie returned to the practice field this week.
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Rakeem Cato went 22-of-31 for 317 yards but finished without a touchdown pass and threw two interceptions, including a pick six in the second quarter versus Winnipeg. S.J. Green caught six passes for a career-high 180 yards and Tyrell Sutton continued his strong start to the season by rushing for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Standout linebacker Bear Woods underwent successful surgery on his right pectoral muscle last week and was placed on the six-game injury list, although there are growing concerns he could miss the rest of the season.
TRENDS:
* Tiger-Cats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
* Alouettes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Alouettes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 4.
* Over is 4-1 in Tiger-Cats last five Thursday games.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-two percent of Covers users are backing the visiting Tiger-Cats.
Game of the day: CFL Doubleheader
By Covers.com
Edmonton Eskimos at Ottawa Redblacks (+3.5, 48.5)
After notching their first victory of the season at the expense of the Ottawa Redblacks, the Edmonton Eskimos look to complete a home-and-home sweep when the clubs reconvene in the nation's capital on Friday. Matt Nichols made the most of his debut with Mike Reilly sidelined 10-12 weeks with a knee injury, going 12-of-21 for 212 yards and three touchdowns in a convincing 46-17 victory on July 10.
Adarius Bowman stepped up in lieu of injuries to both Reilly and running back John White (season-ending ruptured Achilles tendon), reeling in five catches for 120 yards and a touchdown as Edmonton emerged victorious following its early bye week. The Eskimos reverted to the form that made them the league's top defence in 2014 by limiting Ottawa to just 25 yards rushing while also taking advantage of 13 penalties for 139 yards in the win. "You don't win the Grey Cup in July, you don't lose the Grey Cup in July," Redblacks wide receiver Maurice Price told the Ottawa Citizen after the team surrendered its highest point total in its 21 regular-season games to date. "There's no sense in dwelling on it and letting it hang around. Just put it behind you and move on."
LINE HISTORY: There has been no movement on either the spread or total since open.
INJURY REPORT: Eskimos - DT Gregory Alexandre (Ques), WR Wallace Miles (Ques), DE Elie Ngoyi (Ques) Redblacks - QB Brock Jensen (Ques), WR Khalil Paden (Ques), DB Forrest Hightower (Ques), RB Jeremiah Johnson (Ques), Justin Capicciotti (Ques)
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "A rematch from last week where the Eskies blew out the Redblacks 46-17 in Edmonton. This time around the game is being played in Ottawa where the Eskimos are favored by 3 points and are getting 75 percent of the action at the time of writing this. The Total cashed on the over last week between these 2 teams and so far the 49 point total is getting 49 percent of the action on the over." - Michael Stewart of Carbon Sports
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Redblacks will likely be eager to get back on the field with a chance to avenge an ugly loss to the Eskies in Edmonton last week. Henry Burris had a tough game throwing for just 162 yards with no TDs and an INT. We should expect a far more competitive game as Ottawa will likely make adjustments and clean things up at home." - Covers Expert Will Rogers
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Coach Chris Jones admittedly was impressed after watching rookie cornerback John Ojo's momentum-turning interception for a touchdown in the first meeting. "What I liked most about it was when the opportunity presented itself, John had the wherewithal and the ability to finish," Jones told the Edmonton Journal on Monday. "Instinctually, he's playing corner. He was a natural safety in college (at Florida A&M), so he's still learning the position, but certainly he still brings everything we look for as far as physical attributes."
ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U): After throwing for 559 yards and four touchdowns in wins over Montreal and B.C., Henry Burris stumbled out of the blocks in the first meeting with the Eskimos. Burris tossed the interception by Ojo and completed just 20-of-36 passes for 162 yards before being pulled in the third quarter. "That pick-six was uncontested," coach Rick Campbell said. "Then, we took so many penalties in the first half ... it's hard to play winning football that way."
TRENDS:
*Eskimos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 10-4-1 in RedBlacks last 15 games overall.
*Under is 12-2 in Eskimos last 14 games following a ATS win.
CONSENSUS: 57 percent of the Covers public is backing the Eskimos with 50.5 percent on the over.
BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-3.5, 51.5)
The Saskatchewan Roughriders seek their first victory of the season when they host the BC Lions on Friday. The only remaining winless team in the league, Saskatchewan has been close in each of its first three contests, losing by a total of nine points.
After opening the campaign with a four-point defeat to Winnipeg, the Roughriders dropped a two-point decision to Toronto and suffered a 35-32 setback at BC last Friday - both in overtime. The Lions rallied from a 29-18 deficit late in the fourth quarter, with rookie Richie Leone kicking his fifth field goal of the game - a club-record 56-yarder - with 15 seconds remaining before Travis Lulay hit Manny Arceneaux with a 4-yard pass in overtime for the winning score. "To be able to come back like that says a lot about our team," said BC first-year coach Jeff Tedford, who notched his initial CFL win. "I was so proud of the guys."
LINE HISTORY: Initially the Roughriders were favored by three points, but have shifted to -3.5. The total has jumped a full point since opening at 50.5 and is now 51.5.
INJURY REPORT: Lions - SB Courtney Taylor (Prob), G Cody Husband (Ques), DB Ryan Phillips (Ques), LB Jason Arakgi (Doub) Roughriders - LB Shea Emry (Ques)
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Another rematch from last week where these two teams needed overtime to decide the winner where the Lions came out on top with a 3 point victory in Vancouver. This week the scene shifts to Saskatchewan where the Roughriders are 4 point home favs getting a whopping 93 percent of the action so far. The total cashed on the over last week and so far the 51.5 point total is seeing all over action." - Michael Stewart of Carbon Sports
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Saskatchewan Roughriders are still looking for their first victory of the 2015 season, and they host the 1-1 B.C. Lions on Friday. This game features the top two offenses in the CFL, and they are fresh off an entertaining 35-32 game at B.C. Place last Friday." - Covers Expert Will Rogers
ABOUT THE LIONS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Safety Eric Fraser has returned home, as the native of Burnaby was signed by BC on Tuesday. A product of Central Michigan, Fraser spent four seasons with Calgary after being selected in the first round of the 2010 draft. The 28-year-old was taken by Ottawa in the expansion draft following the 2013 season but was cut by the Redblacks during this year's training camp.
ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-0 O/U): With Weldon Brown nursing a shoulder injury, Saskatchewan also added to its defensive backfield Tuesday by signing cornerback Geoff Tisdale. A former All-Star, Tisdale has collected 29 interceptions - four for touchdowns - in 114 career games with Hamilton, Calgary and Montreal. The Roughriders also signed cornerback Paul Woldu, who was released after the preseason, to the practice squad.
TRENDS:
*Lions are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Roughriders are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
*Under is 36-15 in the last 51 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 57.3 percent of the Covers users are backing the 'Riders with 61 percent on the over.
Game of the Day: Blue Bombers at Stampeders
By Covers,com
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders (-9, 52.5)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers will face quite the litmus test as they vie for early West Division supremacy when they visit the reigning Grey Cup-champion Calgary Stampeders in Saturday. Both clubs posted narrow victories to improve to 2-1 on the young season, with Winnipeg rebounding from a shellacking in its home opener to record a 25-23 triumph over Montreal on Friday while Calgary pieced together a patchwork offensive line and scraped to a 25-20 win over Toronto three days later.
"Everything that Calgary has shown in the recent history I've been looking at them is, a player goes down and the next guy steps up," Blue Bombers coach Mike O'Shea said of the Stampeders, who saw offensive linemen Edwin Harrison and Dan Federkeil suffer lower-leg injuries during the second quarter. Defensive lineman Quinn Smith switched both positions and jerseys in order to lend a hand on the offensive side for Calgary. "That was huge," said reigning Grey Cup Most Valuable Player Bo Levi Mitchell, who was 25-of-34 for 303 yards and two touchdowns as the Stampeders rebounded from a 29-11 road loss to the Alouettes on July 3. Trusted target Eric Rogers reeled in six catches for 114 yards and a score, upping his totals to 30 receptions for 512 yards and six touchdowns in seven CFL contests.
LINE HISTORY: The opening spread has not shifted from CGY -9. The total has dropped 0.5-points from 53 to 52.5.
INJURY REPORT: Blue Bombers - DT Bryant Turner Jr. (Out-Hand) Stampeders - WR Kamar Jorden (Ques-Undisclosed), OL Larl Lavoie (Doub-Shoulder)
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Winnipeg relied on its defence for offence last week, as Johnny Adams returned an interception 40 yards for a touchdown and fellow defensive back Teague Sherman recovered a blocked punt in the end zone for a score. "We couldn't get it in the end zone as an offence, but the defence and special teams stepped up," wide receiver Nick Moore told the Winnipeg Sun. Quarterback Drew Willy didn't miss a beat after taking a helmet-to-helmet shot from Hamilton defensive end Adrian Tracy the previous week, completing 20-of-29 passes for 251 yards while adding another 28 on the ground.
ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Jon Cornish continued his assault on Calgary's franchise rushing records, as he rumbled for 56 yards on Monday to move past Lovell Coleman into fourth place on the all-time list. Cornick has amassed 6,407 yards in his career and needs 588 to surpass Earl Lunsford for third place while sitting behind Joffrey Reynolds and Kelvin Anderson. As for the injury bug, wide receiver Simon Charbonneau-Campeau suffered a leg injury and is expected to be sidelined long term, coach John Hufnagel revealed on Tuesday.
TRENDS:
*Blue Bombers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
*Stampeders are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. West.
*Over is 5-2 in Blue Bombers last 7 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 4-0 in Stampeders last 4 games overall.
CONSENSUS: As of this writing, 52 percent of Covers Consensus users were on the Blue Bombers.