CFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Week 4 from various handicappers and websites
CFL Betting Recap - Week 3
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 3
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 3
Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 3
Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 3
The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 3
Analysis
Favorites and underdogs split for the first time this season, as two out of four favorites ended up cashing after going 0-8 ATS through the first two Canadian weekends. Road teams continue to go strong, going 3-1 SU/ATS. That's now 9-3 ATS through the first three weekends. Last week, we mentioned this was a trend that was all too familiar in the CFL last season, as road teams finished 16-2-2 ATS in the first five weekends of the 2016 regular season.
The 'under' is also hitting at a 66.7 percent clip through the first three weekends, going 8-4 through 12 regular season games. It's a trend we also saw last season, with the 'under' 19-8-1 through the first seven weekends in 2016. Defense reigned surpreme again in Week 3, with only the Hamilton (0-2)-Saskatchewan (1-2) game connecting for the 'over' (52) in a 37-20 win by the Roughriders.
The over has hit in each of Saskatchewan's two home games after an under result on the road in Week 1. Unfortunately for total bettors in Week 4, the Roughriders will be on their bye week. Montreal (1-2) will be in action, however, and they have been a favorite of bettors at the window. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 so far this season.
Team Betting Notes
The Alouettes have dropped two in a row after a win against the Riders in the opening weekend. Montreal's offense has struggled, averaging just 17.3 points per game (PPG) through three outings. In addition, they have managed an 0-2 ATS mark in two home outings. They'll be back at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium in Week 4 when Calgary (2-0-1) comes calling.
Speaking of the Stampeders, they're unbeaten through their first three regular season games. After failing to cover in their home-and-home against Ottawa (0-2-1) the Stamps won and covered in Winnipeg (1-1). Their defense was the talk in Week 3, as they allowed 10 points for an 'under' result after yielding 35.0 PPG in the first two games.
The TigerCats didn't benefit much from their bye in Week 2, as they returned to action and were roughed up in Saskatchewan by a 37-20 score. The TiCats are 0-2 SU/ATS through the first two weeks, both on the road. They'll return home in Week 4.
BC Lions (2-1) will be the first visitor at Tim Hortons Stadium in Hamilton, and the Lions hope the good times continue to roll on the road. They're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS in stops in Toronto (2-1) and Montreal. Also perfect is the 3-0 'under' record for the Lions, as they're allowing just 20.3 PPG through three outings.
The Argonauts pulled off a victory in Canada's capital city, edging the RedBlacks 26-25 in Week 3. Toronto is allowing 22.7 PPG through three games while scoring 24.3 points. That's the reason the 'under' has cashed in all three games with a total set at 54 1/2 or 55 so far.
Edmonton (2-0) will return from their bye looking to add to the woes of the RedBlacks at Commonwealth Stadium. So far the Esks are perfect on the season, and so is the 'under' at 2-0. Ottawa's high-octane offense 31.7 PPG will be a huge test for the Edmonton D.
CFL Week 4
Toronto (2-1) @ Winnipeg (1-1) — Blue Bombers swept Toronto 34-17/46-29 LY, after losing five of previous six series games. Argonauts are 5-2 in last seven visits here. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Toronto rallied from 12-1 halftime deficit to win 26-25 in Ottawa last week, their first road game of year. Winnipeg was held scoreless in 29-10 home loss to Calgary LW (they led 10-9 at half) in their home opener. Bombers forced five turnovers in splitting two games (+1).
Calgary (2-0-1) @ Montreal (1-2) — Home team won last seven series games; Stampeders lost last three visits here, by 16-18-9 points. Last six series games stayed under total. Calgary scored 34.3 pts/game in its 2-0-1 start; two of those three games were on road. Four of Stamps’ last five games went over. Alouettes scored 17.3 pts/game in its 1-2 start; they forced only one turnover in three games. Six of last seven Montreal games stayed under the total.
Ottawa (0-2-1) @ Edmonton (2-0) — Eskimos had last week off, will be out to avenge 35-23 loss at Ottawa in Grey Cup semis last year. RedBlacks were 3-0 vs Edmonton LY, winning in OT here- the wins were by 8-3-12 points. Ottawa blew 12-1 halftime lead LW in 26-25 home loss to Toronto; they were tied at half in their first two games, going 0-1-1 vs Calgary, losing 43-39 in only road game so far. Under is 5-2 in last seven Eskimo games, 8-2 in Ottawa’s last 10 games.
BC Lions (2-1) @ Hamilton (0-2) — Lions are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning last three, by 27-25-7 points. BC lost three of last four visits here; home side won seven of last eight series games- over is 6-2 in those eight games. Lions are on road for 3rd week in row; they were +19 in second half the last two weeks, wins at Toronto/Montreal. TiCats were outgunned by 287-258 yards in first two games, losses at Toronto (32-15), Saskatchewan (37-20)- this is their home opener.
Favorites vs spread for season: 4-8
Over/Under: 4-8
Armadillosports.com
CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
British Columbia became the first CFL favorite to cover against the spread this season with last Thursday’s 23-16 victory against Montreal as a three-point favorite on the road. Calgary kept things going with Friday’s 29-10 win against Winnipeg as a 3½-point road favorite.
The other half of Friday’s CFL action saw Toronto win on the road as a four-point underdog in a tight 26-25 victory over Ottawa and Week 3 came to an end on Saturday with Saskatchewan knocking off Hamilton 37-20 as a slight one-point underdog at home.
Thursday, July 13
Toronto Argonauts (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -3
Total: 52½
Game Overview
Toronto’s victory against Ottawa last week was a big step in the right direction following a poor second half against British Columbia at home in Week 2. A healthy Ricky Ray has been the difference on offense and he continues to lead the CFL in passing with 1,199 yards in his first three games. Against the RedBlacks, he completed 27 of his 41 passing attempts for 366 yards and two scores.
The Blue Bombers scored 43 points in their season-opening win against Saskatchewan on the road, but they came up flat against Calgary last week on their home field. They actually led that game 10-9 at the half before getting completely shut down over the next two quarters. Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols threw for 267 yards against the Stampeders, but he did not help his cause with a costly fourth-quarter interception that was returned for a touchdown.
Betting Trends
Winnipeg won both meetings last season straight-up while also covering ATS. The total went OVER the closing line in both contests and it has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings.
Friday, July 14
Calgary Stampeders (2-0-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5½
Total: 49
Game Overview
Calgary is once again starting to assert itself as the top team in the CFL. After racking up 74 points in a season-opening home-and-home series against Ottawa, the Stampeders relied on its defense to get the win last week at Winnipeg. Bo Levi Mitchell put the ball up 34 times against the Blue Bombers and he completed 22 passes for 332 yards and a score; however he was also picked off twice in that game.
The Alouettes saw their chances for a big win against BC fade with a late interception by Darian Durant, but the Montreal signal caller still finished the day with 245 yards passing while completing an efficient 66.7 percent of his 36 attempts. Defense still remains the primary strength of this team and with an average of just 20.7 points allowed through the Alouettes’ first three games, the total has stayed UNDER in all three contests.
Betting Trends
Montreal has covered ATS in its last five games against Calgary and it has a 3-2 edge SU in this inter-division matchup. The total has stayed UNDER in the last six meetings between the two.
Ottawa RedBlacks (0-2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -6
Total: 57½
Game Overview
The RedBlacks are still searching for their first SU win of the season behind a defense that has allowed an average of 33.3 points over its first three games. Offensively, Ottawa quarterback Trevor Harris has thrown for 1,095 yards and seven touchdowns while completing 73.2 percent of his 123 passing attempts. Greg Ellingson has been his primary target with 25 receptions for a league-high 369 yards.
Edmonton comes off the bye as the only undefeated team in the CFL. The Eskimos stunned BC as four-point road underdogs in Week 1 with a SU 30-27 victory, but they could not cover as nine-point home favorites in a tight four-point win against Montreal in Week 2. Heading into this contest, quarterback Mike Reilly has thrown for 601 yards and three touchdowns in those first two games. John White has done a good job running the ball with 112 yards on 20 carries.
Betting Trends
Ottawa has won the last three meetings SU and it has a 3-1 edge ATS in its last four games against the Eskimos. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last eight games in this inter-division tilt.
Saturday, July 15
British Columbia Lions (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -3
Total: 49
Game Overview
The Lions have won their last two games by a combined 20 points following that Week 1 loss to Edmonton. Behind improved play on defense, the total has stayed UNDER in all three of their games. Jonathon Jennings has proven to be one of the more versatile quarterbacks in the CFL with 853 yards passing and another 87 yards rushing through his first three starts. The Lions’ leading rusher has been Jeremiah Johnson with 196 yards on 35 carries.
Hamilton will be playing its first home game of the season following road losses to Toronto and Saskatchewan both SU and ATS. The total went OVER 52 points in last week’s loss after staying UNDER in its season opener. A healthy Zach Collaros has completed 45 of his first 73 passing attempts for 431 yards, but the Tiger-Cats’ ground game as been almost nonexistent with Ross Scheuerman leading the way with 19 yards on five rushing attempts.
Betting Trends
BC has covered ATS in five of the last six meetings and it has won the last three games in this matchup SU. The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight games between these two inter-division foes.
TORONTO (2 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 1) - 7/13/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in July games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 2-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 2-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (2 - 0 - 1) at MONTREAL (1 - 2) - 7/14/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 125-92 ATS (+23.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-0 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 2-2 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA (0 - 2 - 1) at EDMONTON (2 - 0) - 7/14/2017, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-3 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 1) at HAMILTON (0 - 2) - 7/15/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home
Winnipeg is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto
CALGARY vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing Montreal
Calgary is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Montreal's last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games
OTTAWA vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 9 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 8 games when playing at home against Ottawa
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. HAMILTON
British Columbia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
British Columbia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Hamilton
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Hamilton is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
TORONTO @ WINNIPEG
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing Toronto
CALGARY @ MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing Montreal
Calgary is 17-2-1 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Calgary
Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
OTTAWA @ EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
BRITISH COLUMBIA @ HAMILTON
British Columbia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
British Columbia is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Hamilton's last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing British Columbia
Thursday's CFL Betting Preview: Argonauts at Blue Bombers
Covers.com
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3, 52.5)
The Toronto Argonauts look to continue their promising start to the season when they hit the road to take on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday. The Argonauts scored 25 points in the second half en route to a 26-25 victory against the Ottawa Redblacks to move into first place in the East Division, and hope to take another step in the right direction by beating the Blue Bombers for the first time since Nov. 6, 2015.
Toronto has dropped nine straight games against West Division opponents dating back to last season, including both meetings against Winnipeg in 2016 by an average margin of 17 points. Winnipeg is left to go back to the drawing board following a disheartening 29-10 defeat to the Calgary Stampeders. The Blue Bombers harbored serious hopes of challenging the Stampeders for West Division supremacy, but were shut out in the second half en route to their seventh consecutive loss in the series, and hope to bounce back by downing the Argonauts for the third straight time. "It's not a gloomy feeling around here as we lost a football game to a good team," Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols told reporters. "We're going to come back and we have 16 more of these as it's a long season."
LINE HISTORY: The Bombers opened as three-point home favorites and the total hit the betting boards at 52.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, neither number has moved.
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Ricky Ray threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns to become the sixth player in CFL history to throw for 300 TDs in his career. "I will remember this one a little bit more because it came in a big win," Ray told reporters. "It will be nice when I'm old to think back and remember that was the one where we were able to come back in Ottawa and get to that 300 mark." S.J. Green had a career night as he caught 10 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown while Victor Butler continued his assault on opposing quarterbacks as he recorded three sacks to take his total to a league-leading seven through three games.
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Nichols completed 27-of-40 passes for 267 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions, including a pick six in the third quarter that turned the tide in Calgary's favor. Weston Dressler caught six passes for 76 yards against the Stampeders to reach 9,000 receiving yards for his career. Linebacker Ian Wild, who recorded 70 tackles in 12 games last season, left the game with an upper-body injury and is out for the foreseeable future while defensive end Tristan Okpalaugo missed the fourth quarter with an undisclosed knock and is doubtful for the clash against his former team.
TRENDS:
* Argonauts are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
* Blue Bombers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Argonauts last 6 games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Blue Bombers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The home favorite Blue Bombers are getting 56 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers.
EXTRA POINTS:
* Ray leads the CFL in passing yards (1,199).
* Winnipeg K Justin Medlock has made 24 straight field goals dating back to last season.
* Blue Bombers DB T.J. Heath tops the league in interceptions (three) after registering a CFL-best seven in 2016.
Saturday's CFL Betting Preview: Lions at Tiger-Cats
Covers.com
BC Lions at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+3, 51.5)
The BC Lions look to conclude their Eastern road swing with their third straight win when they tangle with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Saturday. The Lions came from behind to beat the Toronto Argonauts 28-15 on June 30 before downing the Montreal Alouettes 23-16 in Week 3, to notch their eighth consecutive win against East Division opponents, and they hope to continue their dominance by taming the Tiger-Cats for the fourth straight time.
BC has averaged 37.7 points over the last three meetings with Hamilton and looks for some more offensive fireworks against the Tiger-Cats' mistake-prone secondary. Hamilton is left to pick up the pieces following a disappointing 37-20 setback to the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Tiger-Cats have dropped seven of their last eight regular-season games dating back to last year and they hope to find a cure for an ailing offence that has scored just one touchdown over eight quarters while averaging a CFL-low 237 yards per game. "It starts with me so I have to play better and if the quarterback plays better you win more games," Hamilton quarterback Zach Collaros told reporters. "If you're not executing you're not going to win ball games and I don't care what level you're at you're just not going to win."
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the winless Ti-Cats as 3-point underdogs for their first home game of the season and the line has yet to move off that number. However, we have seen movement when it comes to the total. The Over/Under hit the board at 49.5 and has been bet up two points to sit at the current number of 51.5.
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football in Hamilton, Ontario, with the forecast calling for mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to high 20's around kickoff. There will a crossfield wind of around 11 miles per hour and gusting as high as 15 mph.
ABOUT THE LIONS (2-1, 2-1 ATS,0-3 O/U): Linebacker Solomon Elimimian was named one of the CFL's Top Performers of the Week after making 15 tackles in the win against Montreal, which was one shy of equaling the single-game league record set by Reggie Hunt in 2003. "Solomon is a great player and when your best guys come to work everyday then you've got a great situation," BC coach Wally Buono told reporters. "He knows it's his show and he's embraced the role." Running back Jeremiah Johnson accounted for 102 yards and two touchdowns against the Alouettes to extend his TD streak to three games.
ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Defensive back Will Hill was handed a one-game suspension for grabbing an official by the jersey and fined an undisclosed amount for punching an opposing player on the same play during the third quarter of the loss to Saskatchewan. Offensive lineman Mike Filer limped off the field against the Roughriders and did not practice early in the week while linebacker Simoni Lawrence took some reps with the defence after missing a significant portion of last week's loss with a lower-body injury. Defensive back Abdul Kanneh, who was one of Hamilton's high-profile free-agent signings in the offseason, could make his debut after missing the first two games due to injury.
TRENDS:
* Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite.
* Tiger-Cats are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 6-2 in Lions last eight road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Tiger-Cats last six games as a home underdog.
* Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.