CFL Betting Notes - Week 8
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Week 7 Betting Recap
It is no big surprise that the defending CFL Champion Calgary Stampeders are atop the standings in the West Division at 4-2 straight-up in the CFL heading into Week 8 of the regular season, but the East has been turned upside down with both Ottawa and Toronto leading the way with a 4-2 SU record as well.
The British Columbia Lions got things started in Week 7 with a 26-23 upset of Edmonton as 2½-point home underdogs and Ottawa followed suit with a 26-23 upset over Montreal as a two-point underdog at home. Toronto closed as a nine-point home favorite against Saskatchewan but it could not cover is a 30-26 victory this past Saturday. Hamilton closed things out in Week 7 with a convincing 38-8 victory against Winnipeg as an 8½-point home favorite.
Thursday, Aug. 13
Edmonton Eskimos (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (2-4 SU, 3-2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -1
Total: 45½
Game Overview
Edmonton will look to bounce back following just its second loss of the season either straight-up or against the spread. The Eskimos opened-up a 23-10 lead at halftime, but they were shutout in the second half. Matt Nichols has been filling in for an injured Mike Reilly at quarterback and while he did throw for 262 yards and two touchdowns, he was also picked-off twice in the losing cause.
The Alouettes have now lost three of their last four games SU with a 2-1-1 record ATS. This will be the first meeting this season against Edmonton, but Montreal is just 1-2 SU (2-0-1 ATS) against the West Division this year. It continues to rely on backup quarterback Rakeem Cato to run the offense. He threw for 303 yards in the loss to Ottawa after completing 20 of his 31 attempts. Cato’s completion rate on the year is a solid 68.6 percent.
Betting Trends
Edmonton is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings, but it won both games last season SU. The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven games between these two.
Friday, Aug. 14
Toronto Argonauts (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF
Game Overview
The surprising Argonauts have been getting it done with Trevor Harris under center. He leads the CFL in total passing yards with 1,819 as well as touchdown throws with 14. He has completed 75 percent of his 208 attempts while getting picked-off just four times. Toronto has been one of the higher scoring teams in the CFL this season with an average of 27.7 points a game.
The Blue Bombers have fallen to 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) in their last four games and they have now been outscored 70-11 in their last two losses. This past Sunday against Hamilton, they fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter and never recovered. Adding injury to insult, Winnipeg quarterback Drew Willy was taken out of the game in the third quarter with an apparent knee injury. His status for this Friday remains questionable at this time.
Betting Trends
The home team has won the past three meetings both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in all three contests. Toronto has a 6-3-1 edge ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Saturday, Aug. 15
British Columbia Lions (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -7½
Total: 52
Game Overview
BC evened its mark on the year both SU and ATS with last week’s upset while snapping a two-game losing streak both ways. It is now 2-0 (SU and ATS) when closing as an underdog. Travis Lulay was not at his best in last week’s win. He completed just 51.6 percent of his 31 attempts for 195 yards and while he did toss two touchdowns, he was also intercepted twice to raise his season total to a league-high seven picks.
The Tiger-Cats only managed to gain 54 yards on the ground in Sunday’s romp. Zach Collaros had another good day throwing the ball with 280 yards and three touchdown passes, but he was also intercepted twice. Hamilton remains the highest scoring team in the CFL with an average of 31.8 points a game. It is allowing an average of 19 points on defense.
Betting Trends
The Lions have failed to cover in seven of the last 10 meetings, but they come into the first meeting this season with a slight 3-2 edge ATS in the last five games. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings.
Sunday, Aug. 16
Ottawa RedBlacks (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (4-2 SU, 0-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -7½
Total: 48
Game Overview
The RedBlacks have been the biggest surprise of the new CFL season after winning just two games SU last season as an expansion team. They have allowed 19 more points than they have scored and their four SU wins are by a combined 21 points. Veteran quarterback Henry Burris has held up well through the first six games with 1,695 yards passing and nine touchdown throws.
Calgary comes off of it bye following a tight three-point home win against Montreal as a five-point favorite. It was the sixth-straight game this year it failed to cover ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the six games. Bo Levi Mitchell has pretty much gone the distance for the Stampeders at quarterback. He is ranked fourth in the league on total passing yards (1,622) and he has tossed seven touchdown throws against four interceptions.
Betting Trends
Ottawa stunned Calgary 29-26 in overtime on July 24 as a 4½-point home underdog. This was after the Stampeders swept last season’s two-game series both SU and ATS. The total has gone OVER in two of the three games.
EDMONTON (4 - 2) at MONTREAL (2 - 4) - 8/13/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1996.
EDMONTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 2-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 2-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TORONTO (4 - 2) at WINNIPEG (3 - 4) - 8/14/2015, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 3) at HAMILTON (4 - 2) - 8/15/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 51-26 ATS (+22.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games in August games since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 2-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 2-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OTTAWA (4 - 2) at CALGARY (4 - 2) - 8/15/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games since 1996.
OTTAWA is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road lined games since 1996.
CALGARY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
CALGARY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
CALGARY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on turf this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 2-1 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 2-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
7:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Edmonton's last 10 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing Edmonton
8:00 PM
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Winnipeg is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
7:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Hamilton is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Hamilton's last 11 games when playing at home against British Columbia
10:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games on the road
Ottawa is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Calgary is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games at home
CFL Week 8
Edmonton (4-2) @ Montreal (2-4) -- Alouettes lost their two post-bye games by total of six points, after leading both games at half; five of their six games stayed under total. Montreal is 2-1 at home, 1-1 as favorite at home. Eskimos are 1-2 on road, winning 23-12 at Ottawa but losing by 15 at Toronto, 3 in Vancouver last week. Edmonton swept Alouettes 33-23/33-16 last year, after losing previous eight series games; over is 6-0-1 in last seven series games. Eskimos' win here LY was their first in last eight visits to Quebec.
Armadillosports.com
Game of the day: Eskimos at Alouettes
Covers.com
Rakeem Cato threw for 303 yards and a touchdown, but also had two interceptions, including a pick in Ottawa's end zone in the third quarter of Friday's loss.
Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (PK, 44.5)
The Edmonton Eskimos look to bounce back from a disappointing Week 7 loss when they travel to Montreal to face the Alouettes on Thursday. The Eskimos let one slip away as they blew a 13-point lead in the 26-23 setback to the BC Lions and missed a golden opportunity to take sole possession of first place in the West Division.
Edmonton swept the season series against the Alouettes in 2014, including a 33-23 victory at Molson Stadium, but have dropped six of the last seven meetings in Montreal. The Alouettes are in danger of falling out of contention in the East Division following a 26-23 loss to the Ottawa Redblacks. Montreal defensive end Michael Sam made his much-anticipated debut but it was largely uneventful as the CFL's first openly gay player failed to record a tackle, and the Alouettes fell four points behind the rest of the pack. "This team is going through some adversity right now," Sam told reporters. "Hopefully we put this game aside and focus on Edmonton."
LINE HISTORY: This game opened as a Pick and the total opened at 45 but has been moved to 44.5.
INJURY REPORT: Eskimos - RB Shakir Bell (Probable, concussion).
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Quarterback Mike Reilly returned to the practice field in a limited role for the first time since injuring his knee in the season-opening loss to the Toronto Argonauts. "He's still a ways away, but when he's completely healthy we'll put him back out there," Edmonton coach Chris Jones told reporters. "He's got distinct cadence so it was good to have him back." Adarius Bowman, who leads the team with 400 receiving yards, sat out the second half with a lower-body injury against the Lions and is questionable for Thursday.
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Rakeem Cato threw for 303 yards and a touchdown, but also had two interceptions, including a pick in Ottawa's end zone in the third quarter. Montreal released kicker Sean Whyte, who lost his starting job to Boris Bede; linebacker Bryn Roy; and wide receiver Dobson Collins, whose fumble proved costly in the loss to the Calgary Stampeders in Week 6. S.J. Green had five receptions for 66 yards to go over the 6,000-yard mark for his career and currently leads the league with 539 receiving yards this season.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Eskimos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Eskimos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
* Alouettes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of users are backing the Alouettes.
Game of the day: Argonauts at Blue Bombers
By Covers.com
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+6, 48.5)
Winnipeg begins life without quarterback Drew Willy when it hosts the Toronto Argonauts on Friday, and Blue Bombers coach Mike O'Shea isn't saying who will be his replacement. Willy is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks after suffering a tibial plateau fracture and partial PCL tear in Winnipeg's 38-8 loss in Hamilton on Sunday - its third setback in the last four games, leaving Brian Brohm or Robert Marve to keep the Blue Bombers afloat until Willy returns.
Brohm hasn't recorded a touchdown pass while throwing five interceptions in 121 attempts covering two seasons, while Marve has thrown 29 passes in two years. Winnipeg also will be without running back Paris Cotton (team-best 268 yards) and slotback Darvin Adams (team-leading 360 receiving yards), who suffered a broken arm and an upper-body injury, respectively, against Hamilton. Toronto has won three of its last four contests and sits in a three-way tie for first place in the East Division following a come-from-behind 30-26 victory over Saskatchewan on Saturday. A big reason for the Argonauts' success has been the play of backup quarterback Trevor Harris, who leads the CFL in all major passing categories but could be back on the bench soon with Ricky Ray's return from offseason shoulder surgery looming.
LINE HISTORY: The lines have yet to shift since opening at WPG +6, 48.5.
INJURY REPORT: Argonauts - LB Cory Greenwood (Ques-Concussion), S Jermaine Gabriel (Ques-Groin), K Swayze Waters (Ques-Quad) Blue Bombers - RB Paris Cotton (Out-Arm), SB Nick Moore (Ques-Lower Body), DT Bryant Turner Jr. (Ques-Hand)
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Harris tossed two of his CFL-leading 14 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter last week and also paces the league in completion percentage (75.0) and yards (1,819). Toronto boasts a deep stable of receivers including Diontae Spencer, who caught five passes for 94 yards and a touchdown Saturday in his first CFL contest. The depth will be key because Kevin Elliott (22 catches, 303 yards, three touchdowns) is doubtful to play Friday (ribs) while it appears Chad Owens (26, 284, one) will miss his second straight contest (ankle).
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U): O'Shea said Da'Rel Scott, a seventh-round draft pick of the New York Giants in 2011 who carried 31 times for 98 yards over three NFL seasons, will make his CFL debut while replacing Cotton. The expected return of Nick Moore (team-best 28 catches, 308 yards), who missed the last two games because of a lower-body injury, could soften the blow of losing Adams. The Blue Bombers' defence allows 30 points per game - second-worst to winless Saskatchewan (32.1) - but could be bolstered by the return of defensive linemen Greg Peach and Bryant Turner.
TRENDS:
*Argonauts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
*Blue Bombers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
*Under is 8-3 in Argonauts last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
*Under is 5-0 in Blue Bombers last 5 games overall.
CONSENSUS: 53 percent of Covers backers are taking the Argos with 55 percent on the over.
CFL Week 8
Toronto (4-2) @ Winnipeg (3-4) -- Argonauts won eight of last ten series games; five of last six went over the total. Toronto split its four road games this season; four of their last five games were decided by five or less points. Argos have yet to lead (0-5-1) at halftime so far this season. Three of Winnipeg's four losses are by 26+ points; they're 2-1 at home, with a 52-26 loss to Hamilton-- their last five games overall stayed under the total. After scoring 13+ points in each of first four games, they were outscored 45-10 in first half of last three.
Armadillosports.com
Game of the day: CFL Doubleheader
By Covers.com
B.C. Lions at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-9, 50.5)
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to continue their winning ways when they host the BC Lions on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats scored 31 first-half points en route to a 38-8 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to earn their third straight victory, and pull into a three-way tie for top spot in the East Division.
Hamilton is 8-0 in regular-season games at Tim Hortons Field since the stadium opened on Sept. 1, 2014, including a 19-17 victory over the Lions last October, and hopes to improve to 4-1 against West Division opponents this season. BC snapped a two-game skid with a morale-boosting 26-23 victory over the Edmonton Eskimos in Week 7. Andrew Harris seems to be fully recovered from an ankle injury, which kept him out of the last five games of 2014, as he's rushed for more than 100 yards in his last two contests and leads the league with 519 yards on the ground. The Lions have scored at least 36 points in three of the last six meetings with the Tiger-Cats and look for their first win against an East Division foe after failing to the Ottawa Redblacks and Toronto Argonauts earlier in the year.
INJURY REPORT: Lions - G Cody Husband (Ques-Undisclosed), DL Ese Mrabure-Ajufo (Ques-Undisclosed) Tiger-Cats - OL Landon Rice (Ques-Undisclosed), OL Brian Simmons (Ques-Undisclosed), DT Drake Nevis (Ques-Undisclosed)
LINE HISTORY: The Tiger-Cats opened as 8-point favorites before jumping a full point to -9. The total has fallen half-a-point from 51 to 50.5.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Hamilton Tigercats will host the B.C. Lions on Saturday, and Hamilton will be asked to cover a significant spread. The Ticats have never lost at Tim Horton's Field, and they've covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 overall. The Lions are a formidable opponent though, coming off an upset win at home over Edmonton. B.C. has won four of the last six meetings in this series, and both games Hamilton won were decided by single digits." - Covers Experts' Will Rogers
ABOUT THE LIONS (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Harris was named one of the CFL Top Performers of the Week after he accounted for 175 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns to lead the Lions past the Eskimos. "Andrew Harris is a tremendous running back and he's one of the biggest threats in the CFL," BC fullback Rolly Lumbala told reporters. "Just when you think he's hit his peak he surprises you with another crazy run." Travis Lulay overcame two interceptions to finish with 195 yards and two touchdowns, but has thrown six picks in his last three outings.
ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Emanuel Davis became the first Hamilton player to return two interceptions for touchdowns in the same game and earned one of the CFL Top Performers of the Week honours for his feat against the Blue Bombers. "I'm just happy to be part of something great this year," Davis told reporters. "I just had to wait for my time and luckily it's paying off right now." Zach Collaros threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns and has racked up 793 passing yards and seven scores during Hamilton's three-game winning streak.
TRENDS:
*Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
*Tiger-Cats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
*Under is 8-2 in Lions last 10 road games.
*Under is 4-0 in Tiger-Cats last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Ottawa Redblacks at Calgary Stampeders (-8.5, 48)
The Calgary Stampeders look to stay undefeated at home when they take on the Ottawa Redblacks on Saturday. The Stampeders erased a 17-point deficit en route to a 25-22 victory over the Montreal Alouettes in Week 6 to improve to 4-0 at McMahon Stadium, and have won 10 of their last 11 home games dating back to last season.
Calgary is tied with the Edmonton Eskimos for first place in the West Division with eight points and hopes to pull ahead of its provincial rival by avenging a 29-26 overtime loss to the Redblacks on July 24. Ottawa has already doubled its win total from a year ago following a 26-23 victory over the Alouettes in Week 7. Henry Burris is back on track after two disappointing displays against the Eskimos as he's thrown for 712 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games, including 389 yards and three scores against the Stampeders three weeks ago. Ottawa hopes to win three consecutive games for the first time in franchise history and break out of the three-team logjam at the top of the East Division.
LINE HISTORY: The Stamps opened at 7.5-point favorites before jumping a full point to -8.5. The total has remained at 48 since open.
INJURY REPORT: Redblacks - WR Chris WIlliams (Ques-Undisclosed) Stampeders - WR Joe West (Ques-Leg)
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Ottawa Redblacks come into Calgary as a big underdog this weekend, despite the fact that both teams have an identical 4-2 record. The Redblacks already upset the Stamps in Ottawa earlier this year, and they rank second overall in the CFL in total defense. It might be worth noting that all four of the Stampeders wins this season have come in games decided by less than a TD." - Covers Expert Will Rogers
ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Ottawa made some roster moves as it signed running back Travon Van and released Jock Sanders. "We brought Jock in hoping to implement him a bit more offensively but it hadn't gotten to that point," Redblacks general manager Marcel Desjardins told reporters. "He's been good, but he hasn't been what we'd hoped he'd be." Chris Williams had seven catches for 162 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with Calgary and leads the team with 432 receiving yards.
ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (4-2 SU, 0-6 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Calgary signed running back Keith Toston, who was cut at the end of preseason, to the practice squad to provide depth with Jon Cornish out for the foreseeable future with a broken thumb. "Keith had a really good training camp for us and he knows our system," Stampeders coach John Hufnagel told reporters. "If his numbers gets called he'll be ready to go." Defensive back Adam Thibault sustained an ankle injury in the first meeting with the Redblacks but is likely to return in time for Saturday's contest.
TRENDS:
*RedBlacks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Stampeders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
*Over is 4-1-1 in RedBlacks last 6 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 5-0 in Stampeders last 5 home games.
CFL Week 8
Ottawa (4-2) @ Calgary (4-2) -- RedBlacks (+4.5) upset Calgary 28-26 at home three weeks ago in game that Stampeders led 19-17 at half; that was only Ottawa game this season that went over total. RedBlacks outgained Stamps 422-350. Three of Ottawa's four wins are by four or less points; this is their first road game in five weeks- they're 1-1 on road, losing at Edmonton 46-17, winning in Montreal. Calgary is off its bye week; they're 0-6 vs spread so far this season; all four of their wins are by 5 or less points (0-3 as home favorite).
BCLions (3-3) @ Hamilton (4-2) -- Home side won six of last seven series games; Lions lost last two visits here, 37-29/19-17. Over is 7-4 in last 11 series games. TiCats won last three in a row, scoring 34.3 ppg; they won their two home games 34-18/38-8-- five of their six games stayed under the total. Lions have played six weeks in row since their Week 1 bye; they lost 27-16 in Ottawa, 23-13 in Winnipeg won at winless Saskatchewan. Hamilton's two losses are by total of five points; they've yet to trail a game at halftime (5-0-1) this season.
Armadillosports.com