Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 7/27/18
Toronto Argonauts vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Preview and Predictions 07-27-2018 in CFL
CFL Previews 24th July 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 07/24/2018
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers hope to complete the season sweep of the Toronto Argonauts when they host the defending Grey Cup champions Friday. Andrew Harris racked up a career-high 161 rushing yards to lead Winnipeg to a comfortable 38-20 victory over the Argonauts in Week 6 and the Blue Bombers hope to move over .500 for the first time in 2018 by posting their third straight home win in the series with Toronto.
"We can't get too high or too low," Harris told reporters. "We've got to keep building off this and look forward to playing this team again in a couple of days." The Argonauts fell to 1-4 for the first time in four seasons after they were limited to 165 yards of offence against Winnipeg. Toronto hasn't scored more than 20 points in any of its five games and hopes to salvage a season that is spinning out of control by notching their first victory in Winnipeg since Aug. 14, 2015. "We're deep in it...and we have to win some games along the way," Toronto coach Marc Trestman admitted to reporters. "We know what we have to do and we have to do it better."
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TSN, ESPN Plus
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (3-3): Harris caught a touchdown and added another on the ground as he moved past Jon Cornish (6,844) for second place on the CFL's all-time rushing yards list among Canadians with 6,878. Winnipeg traded wide receiver Adarius Bowman, who struggled to fit into the offence after recording four 1,000-yard seasons in seven years with the Edmonton Eskimos, to the Montreal Alouettes for a conditional eighth-round pick in the 2019 CFL Draft. Defensive back Chris Randle was a late scratch last weekend but is expected to play Friday while Winnipeg added linebacker Frederic Plesius and wide receiver Brisly Estime to the practice squad.
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (1-4): Franklin was held to 151 yards passing with an interception while S.J. Green was limited to three receptions for nine yards after finishing with 10 catches for 131 yards in his previous game against Edmonton. Toronto traded defensive end Shawn Lemon, who registered 23 sacks in 33 games with the Argonauts, to the BC Lions for a player to be named later. Dynamic kick returner/running back Dexter McCluster, who earned Pro Bowl honours with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013, could make his CFL debut Friday while linebacker Bear Woods and running back Anthony Coombs are inching closer to a return.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Winnipeg has won four of the last five meetings with Toronto.
2. Harris has recorded three straight 100-yard games.
3. Toronto has surrendered a league-worst 412.8 yards per game.
PREDICTION: Blue Bombers 33, Argonauts 18
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Friday CFL Best Bet
Toronto vs Winnipeg
The CFL has been a league of home-and-home's between numerous teams the past few weeks and that run appears to end tonight with the latter half of Toronto and Winnipeg's home-and-home.
Winnipeg blew the doors off Toronto on the Argos own field last week (38-20) as bettors who continually pounded Winnipeg all week long – that spread opened as a pick'em and closed Winnipeg -3.5 – were handsomely rewarded.
This week the contest shifts over to Winnipeg and now the Blue Bombers have opened up as a double-digit favorite, been bet up to as high as -11.5 at some places, and now back down to the original number of -10.
So where should your money be going here?
BetOnline.ag Odds: Winnipeg -10; Total set at 53.5
Coming into the week I was always curious about this point spread would be considering all the support Winnipeg got a week ago. It was clear that respectable money was backing the Blue Bombers all week long for that game considering they closed past that key number of -3, but to see where this week's number opened up after that game was a little surprising. An 18-point win where Toronto's two TD's both came from the defense deserves to have some adjustment Winnipeg's way (on top of having home field now), but it's hard not to feel as though this is a bit of an over-adjustment.
Clearly some bettors felt that way when this line hit -11 and bet it back down the past 24 hours or so, but if you thought Winnipeg was essentially a -6 home favorite against Toronto prior to last week's game with them opening up at pick'em, it seems to me that the oddsmakers here are weighing that game's result much too heavily here. That's not putting me on Toronto plus the points, but that is probably the only way to go on this side if you ask me. Instead, this total has basically stayed the same as a week ago and with since Toronto did get 14 points they probably shouldn't have with those defensive TD's, I'm surprised this number didn't see more adjustment.
Bettors were pounding the 'over' in this game a week ago and after collecting their profits when 58 points were scored, it looks like nothing has changed for this week. This total has already been pushed up a half-point to 53.5, and considering how easy Winnipeg made it look against the Argos defense, you can't help but expect the Blue Bombers to have success offensively again. But how much of it remains the question, and with some rainy, potential thunderstorms in the forecast, things could be much tougher this time around.
So we've already got a situation where 14 points from a week ago aren't likely to happen in a similar fashion, we've got weather concerns, and huge concerns about the Argos ability to put up points with QB James Franklin at the helm. In three full games that Franklin has started, Toronto's offense has accounted for just 13.66 points per outing and that's just not going to get it done. Thankfully Toronto's defense has been able to hold down the fort in some regard and keep some of these scores respectable, but the Argos are learning quickly that without Ricky Ray and his tremendous experience reading defenses and dissecting them, Toronto's best chance at success this year is in 24-20 type games. And there will be some days where Toronto's offense will be lucky to get to 24 points.
Tonight feels like one of those days as both teams have a much better idea of how the other plans to attack them. Toronto's defense has had arguably their two best performances of the year in their two road games, and Winnipeg's defense will do their part to keep this game lower-scoring as well.
The last five meetings between these two may have all cashed 'over' tickets and part of the reason why this total has been bumped a bit, but so far this year, in the 2nd half of home-and-home's between two teams, the 'under' has gone a perfect 2-0. If you want to also count the two “series” that had either one week in-between or a bye week between return matchups in home-and-home matchups, the 'under' is 3-0-1 against the number and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Odds per - BetOnline.ag
Best Bet: Under 53.5 points