Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 6/30/18
Saturday's CFL Best Bet
June 29, 2018
Saturday CFL Week 3 Best Bet
Montreal Alouettes vs Saskatchewan Roughriders
The closing game of Week 3 in the CFL has a very bad Montreal team in Saskatchewan to play the Riders. Montreal has lost 13 games in a row both SU and ATS dating back to the end of last year and they've been outscored 78-20 through two games this season.
They are a team without a longterm plan at QB, and given how bad everyone knows they are, they are a team bettors love to fade. Should that be the case again on Saturday?
BetDSI.eu Odds: Saskatchewan (-10.5); Total set at 45.5
This is the third week in a row the Roughriders are playing an Eastern team and given the dominance by the West teams in those matchups the past few years, Saskatchewan had to love the chances of starting out hot when the schedule was released. After this week the Riders have a home-and-home with Hamilton (with a bye week thrown in), so it really is critical they take advantage of these games they should win.
Saskatchewan laid an egg for the most part against Ottawa last week and are in a great spot to bounce back against this brutal Montreal squad.
Yet, is laying double digit points with the Riders something you really want to do. The QB battle that was more of a thing during training camp has now been handed over to “backup” Brandon Bridge in Saskatchewan with Zach Collaros on the shelf for the next few weeks.
Bridge has plenty of experience in this league but probably isn't the pocket passer that Collaros is. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the Riders, in fact it could be quite the opposite, it's just a different thing to them to adapt to and work with this week.
But really, let's be honest, I don't think it matters who plays QB for the Riders, they should win this game rather easily. I'm not willing to lay the points given the potential for Montreal to sneak in with a backdoor cover, but Saskatchewan should be in control of this game from the get-go and put up points seemingly at will. It wouldn't be all that different then the “56” Winnipeg hung on Montreal last week. I doubt the Riders get that high, but scoring 30+ should come with relative ease.
However, I'm not willing to lay the points here even if that is the case because I do believe Montreal's offense shows us a bit more this week. The Alouettes have shown flashes of quality plays at times this year but never for sustained success. Week 1 they went to half with a lead thanks to an ultra-aggressive mindset early on and I think we see them get back to that style of play here.
Ottawa had some success throwing deep against this Riders secondary a week ago and Montreal could end up having the same. And really, if you're Montreal, what do you have to lose by taking plenty of shots deep? Your on a 13-game losing streak.
Regardless of whether or not the Alouettes take shots deep, they should be able to score in that 10-15 point range they've favored during this losing run. That's a number I've got on the low end of things for this Montreal team which is why I think taking this total to get surpassed is the safer wager.
If Montreal does make a game of it, chances are the score is going to be in the 20's for both sides late, and if it's another dominant, blowout win for a Montreal opponent, the Alouettes are bad enough that Saskatchewan could score 40+ themselves.
In the end, there is just much more margin for error by going 'over' this low total than taking a side in a game that could easily land as a 7-14 point win for the Riders. Do you want to sweat the full game hoping you're on the right side of that ATS result. I know I don't and with many different results more likely to be higher scoring relative to this total, 'over' is the only way to go.
Montreal's a bad team that has to show teams that they are capable of putting up enough points on the board to beat anyone on an average day.
That's 20+ in the CFL and if Alouettes can hit that figure here, without question an 'over' ticket should cash.
Odds per - BetDSI.eu
Best Bet: Over (45.5)