CFL News and Notes Week 17

Friday, October 23

HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
Hamilton is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Hamilton
Toronto is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing Hamilton

EDMONTON vs. CALGARY
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Edmonton is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Calgary is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Edmonton

Saturday, October 24

MONTREAL vs. WINNIPEG
Montreal is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. SASKATCHEWAN
British Columbia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
British Columbia is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia

Week 17 CFL Games

Hamilton (7-8) @ Toronto (2-13)-- TiCats won two of three in series so far this year; Argos won season opener 30-17 (led 30-3 at half) on road, then lost the rematch here 34-15 in Week 10, before Hamilton won third game 25-22 in OT here in Week 11. Hamilton lost last four games, falling 41-38 in Montreal last week despite outgaining Als by 204 yards. Argos lost their last 11 games, are 3-2 vs spread in last five games, 2-3 as home underdog this season.

Edmonton (7-8) @ Calgary (8-6-1)-- Stampeders won two of first three in series this year, losing first meeting 38-35 in Edmonton (+1) in Week 7, then winning 32-8 here in Week 10 (-6.5), and 35-34 on road the next week (-2), averaging 481.7 total yards in those games. Calgary is 3-4 as a home favorite this year, with last two home games decided by total of 1 point. Eskimos snapped three-game skid last week, are 2-5 in last seven games, 2-2 as dog on road. Six of last eight Calgary games stayed under.

Saturday, October 24

Montreal (13-2) @ Winnipeg (6-9)-- Alouettes won their last six games, covering four of last five; they won 39-12 at Winnipeg in Week 7 (-8), then again 33-14 at home five weeks later (-14), with eight takeaways in the two games. Als are 4-2 as road favorite this year. Bombers had three game win streak snapped by BC last week; they're 3-4 at home so far in '09, 2-2 as home dog. Winnipeg ran ball for 174-136-123 yards in last three games. Six of last seven Montreal games stayed under the total.

BC Lions (8-7) @ Saskatchewan (8-6-1)-- Lions won last three games, all by three points and weren't favored in any of them- they covered four of last five road games, are 4-1 as road dog this season. Home side won first two series games; Riders (-2) won here 28-24 in season opener, BC got revenge with 35-20 win five weeks later (+1), then beat Riders 19-16 in Week 14 (even). Roughriders are 1-3 against spread as home favorite this season. Seven of last eight Lion games stayed under the total.

CFL Week 17 Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand

Hamilton Tiger Cats at Toronto Argonauts (+3.5)

The Tiger Cats are coming to Toronto with the memories of an overtime loss to the Argos still in their heads. Kevin Glenn will once again be Hamilton’s starting QB. If he stays precise against the Argos, he should have a much more pleasant evening than last week’s loss. Especially considering that Toronto is doomed to finish dead last in the East, even if it wins its last three games. The Tiger Cats and the Blue Bombers will square off on November 8.

In Toronto the players can only wish to save their jobs for the 2010 season. Even head coach Bart Andrus has let it be known he would be contempt to see his team win at least one of the last three games of the regular season, if only not to have a worst record than last year. But remember that two of the three Toronto wins this season have been registered against its Southern Ontario rivals. Is that enough to think they will go all out against the Tiger Cats? The Argos have one of the best defensive squads in the CFL but their miserable offence doesn’t give any reason to be optimistic in Toronto.

Pick: Hamilton -3.5

Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-6)

This will be the fourth showdown between these two teams in 2009. The Stampeders won the last two contests in September (32-8 and 35-34). Edmonton had won the first one, on August 13. The rivalry between these two teams is such that one must take all statistics and analysis with a grain of salt. The Eskimos have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot more than the Stampeders, as the turnover ratio shows - a +7 for the Stamps and a -13 for the Eskimos, whose aerial attack has also been struggling. Fortunately for them, RB Arkee Whitlock has been successful. The Eskimos should also have Calvin McCarty back in action, which would provide them with a potent duo of running backs.

The Stampeders have a very efficient RB of their own in Joffrey Reynolds, who scored three touchdowns and gained 137 yards rushing last week. Henry Burris, after some sort of a drought, seems to be back to his usual top form. But don’t underestimate the Eskimos, who desperately need to win to get back in race for first place in their division. It will undoubtedly be a frantic game in Calgary.

Pick: Edmonton +6

Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+3.5)

The Alouettes are looking for their seventh win in a row and could match a team record with 14 wins in a season - a feat established in 2004 under Don Matthews. The perspective of a 16-2 record, the best in CFL history, also remains very attractive. But No. 1 QB Anthony Calvillo has a calf injury and might have to sit this one in favor of backup Adrian McPherson. McPherson completed 10-of-11 passes while replacing Calvillo in the middle of the third quarter last Sunday, leading the Alouettes to a 41-38 triumph over the Tiger Cats.

Whether in practice or in the few occasions he was used during games, McPherson has shown he’s got the stuff to become a quality starter in this league. He will have to beware of the Bombers defensive squad which leads the CFL with 29 picks. After an atrocious outing against the Tiger Cats, the Alouettes defence will likely play with urgency and demonstrate why they are the best D in the CFL.

Pick: Montreal -3.5

B.C. Lions vs Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7)

First place in the west, although provisional, is what will be at stake in this game. The Roughriders and the Stampeders have a share of the top spot in the division but the Lions are only one point behind. The Riders show a balanced attack which is second in points scored in the CFL after 15 games. With four quality receivers that each had at least one 100-yard game this season (Fantuz, Dressler, Getzlaf and Bagg) and 21 rushing touchdowns (the best in the league), the Roughriders are dangerous when throwing or running the ball.

On the Lions side, the QB position remains problematic. Travis Lulay did well against the Bombers, although his receivers didn’t make his task easy by dropping too many easy catches. However, he suffered a shoulder injury like Buck Pierce. Wally Buono has no other choice to rely on Casey Printers, under contract in Vancouver for less than a month, even if he hasn’t played football in the last 10 months. Printers knows the Lions’ offensive schemes but has he found his rhythm and synchronism? If he should fail, Buono will have to rely on fifth-stringer Zac Champion. Another important fact to consider, RB Martell Mallett might miss a second game in a row with a foot injury.

Pick: Saskatchewan -7

Last Week 2-2, season 34-26