CFL Week 18 Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Toronto Argonauts at Edmonton Eskimos (-7, 49.5)
Argonauts fans must feel like they are stuck in Groundhog Day, but without any trace of Bill Murray to make them laugh. The defense tries to keep it close at each game but the attack goes nowhere and the special units are pretty much invisible. Plagued by injuries in the last few weeks, the Eskimos D, the worst in the league, will breathe a little against the worst offensive attack. Even more so since head coach Bart Andrus might give the ball to rookie QB Stephen Reaves, a 24-year-old left-hander out of Southern Mississippi, to rest his No. 1 Kerry Joseph.
Opposing QB Ricky Ray, although leading CFL passers, has not been a shadow of himself since Kevin Strasser replaced Rick Worman as offensive coordinator and that could be a problem against one of the best defense in the league. The Eskimos are in a must-win situation to keep any hope of getting out of the West Division cellar and any chance they may still have of making the playoffs. Of course to achieve that they will also have to beat the Lions next week in Vancouver. The job of GM Danny Maciocia, whose team won’t host a playoff game in Edmonton for a fifth year in a row, may depend on it.
Pick: Edmonton -7
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-1, 55)
The Tiger Cats have greatly improved since last year and are always tough to beat in front of their home fans in Hamilton where they have a 5-3 record. In their last two games, the OL didn’t give a single sack and the team committed only one turnover. Slowing down DE’s as aggressive as the Riders Stevie Baggs and John Chick might present a quite different challenge. These two are challenging each other for the lead in sacks this season. Baggs shares the lead with Lions Ricky Foley with 11 while Chick already made 10 sacks. This is almost enough to overlook the losses of two of the best Riders defensive players, halfbacks Eddie Davis (knee) and Lance Frazier (dehydration).
The Tiger Cats could have had a much better record since four of their nine losses ended with a margin of three points or less. But they are only 1-9 this season against teams with winning records. Tough luck because the Roughriders, who share the provisional first place in the West with the Calgary Stampeders, didn’t suffer a loss in their last three games and each time, they have put at least 32 points on the board. A win in Hamilton before squaring with Calgary in the regular-season finale for the pennant, would give the Roughriders a serious option on a title that eluded them since 1976 and that confers the privilege of hosting the western final. To achieve this, QB Darian Durant must avoid turning over the ball. He has already been picked 20 times this season.
Pick: Saskatchewan +1
Calgary Stampeders at B.C. Lions (+1.5, 53)
In the heat of a championship race the Stampeders can’t afford to lose against a Lions team they have beaten six times in a row. In the last two games, Henry Burris has been back at the top of his game, showing the stuff he did when he led Calgary to the last Grey Cup. Last time the Stampeders played the Lions, RB Joffrey Reynolds had fun at the expenses of the opposing front seven rushing for 151 yards. In two games against the Lions, Reynolds averaged 141 rushing yards per game.
Casey Printers is back, after 10 months of inactivity and both the Lions’ uniform and playbook suit him quite well. Last week, in a 33-30 loss to the Roughriders, Printers passed for more than 300 yards - not bad for someone who hadn’t played since November 2008. Of course, he can count on two of the best receivers in the CFL in Geroy Simon and Paris Jackson. Simon caught six passes from Printers last week for 142 yards. The Lions, who had more than their share of injuries (Only 40 percent of the team is considered healthy), have little chance of finishing in first place but they can hope to host the Western Division semifinal and that should be more than enough to give this team some extra motivation.
Pick: Calgary -1.5
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes (-7)
The Blue Bombers are coming to Montreal fired up after inflicting the Alouettes with a rare 41-24 loss - the Birds’ only loss to an East Division rival this year. It was a fourth win in five games for Winnipeg, which can now challenge for second place in the East and therefore host the division’s semifinal. The Blue Bombers will play their last regular season game at home against the Hamilton Tiger Cats. WR Adarius Bowman, who lost consciousness after violently hitting the ground while trying to catch a pass, is considered doubtful for this rematch. Without their star QB Anthony Calvillo and top defensive players like Davis Sanchez, Shea Emry and Diamond Ferri, the Alouettes where outplayed last Saturday in Winnipeg. Could it be that the coaching staff of both the Tiger Cats and the Bombers found some weaknesses in Montreal’s armor?
In the Alouettes’ locker room, the defensive squad swears they will finish the season strong and make people forget these two bad performances. Sanchez, Emry and Ferri will be back in the lineup but the Als will be without excellent DT Eric Wilson (knee) and their possible Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Jerald Brown (groin), both of them possibly not returning before the East Final on November 22. But since Anthony Calvillo will also be back in action, the Bombers might find it quite difficult to repeat last week’s feat.
Pick: Montreal -7
Last Week 3-1, season 37-26-1
TORONTO (3 - 13) at EDMONTON (7 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
EDMONTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games this season.
EDMONTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
EDMONTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
EDMONTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
EDMONTON is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, October 31
SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 6 - 1) at HAMILTON (7 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 91-55 ATS (+30.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (9 - 6 - 1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (8 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-4 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Sunday, November 1
WINNIPEG (7 - 9) at MONTREAL (13 - 3)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 6-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 6-4 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Friday, October 30
TORONTO vs. EDMONTON
Toronto is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Saturday, October 31
SASKATCHEWAN vs. HAMILTON
Saskatchewan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Hamilton is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Saskatchewan
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
CALGARY vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Calgary is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games at home
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Sunday, November 1
WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Week 18 CFL Games
Friday, October 30
Toronto (2-14) @ Edmonton (7-9)-- Eskimos lost four of last five tilts, but only win was 22-19 at Toronto two weeks ago (-4); they lost three in row at home by 1-3-3 points. Edmonton trailed at half in nine of last ten games. Argonauts lost 12 games in row, but are 3-3 vs spread in last six- they're 3-4 vs spread on road- both their wins came away from the Rogers Centre. Four of last five Edmonton games stayed under the total, as did five of Toronto's last seven.
Saturday, October 31
Saskatchewan (9-6-1) @ Hamilton (8-8)-- TiCats snapped a four-game skid last week in Toronto; they lost last two home games, allowing 80 points, after winning five of first six at home. Roughriders are 3-1-1 last five games; they beat Hamilton 33-25 (-5) back in Week 7, outrushing TiCats 214-31. Riders are 4-3-1 on road, with last three decided by total of six points-- five of their last six overall were decided by four points or less. Five of last seven Hamilton games stayed under the total.
Calgary (9-6-1) @ BCLions (8-8)-- Lions lost twice to Calgary this year, 48-10/27-18, running ball for 219-208 yards; they've covered last four games (3-1 SU), won four of last five home games, winning by 15-7-6-3 points. BC covered six of its last seven as an underdog. Stampeders are 6-2-1 in last nine games; they're 1-6 vs spread on road (3-4 SU). Under is 10-3 in Lions' last 13 games, 5-1 in Calgary's last six. Last four Lion games were all decided by three points.
Sunday, November 1
Winnipeg (7-9) @ Montreal (13-3)-- Winnipeg won four of its last five games; they're 5-3 vs spread on road. Calvillo didn't play last week, Als got ambushed 41-24 in Winnipeg, as Blue Bombers avenged 39-12/33-14 defeats to Montreal earlier in year. Loss ended 6-game Montreal winning streak- they're 8-0 at home, 4-4 as home favorite. Alouettes gave up 38-41 points in last two games, after allowing total of 41 points in previous four games. Six of last eight Montreal games stayed under the total.