Alouettes 10-point favorites vs. Argonauts
By: David Schwab
The Toronto Argonauts look to continue their ‘worst to first’ journey all the way to this season’s Grey Cup when they take on the Montreal Alouettes in the CFL East Division Final this Sunday, Nov. 21. Kickoff from Percival-Molson Memorial Stadium in Montreal is set for 10 a.m. (PT).
Toronto suddenly finds itself one win away from playing in the 2010 Grey Cup after its dramatic 16-13 victory over Hamilton in the East semifinals last Sunday. The Argonauts covered as a 6 ½-point road underdog and the total stayed well ‘under’ 47 ½. They were able to capitalize on five Tiger-Cat turnovers to win their first playoff game since 2006.
The Argos now face a team they are extremely familiar with in the division finals, having played Montreal four times over the course of the regular season. Sportsinteraction.com opened the Alouettes as a 10-point favorite and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 51.
Montreal drew first blood in this series with a dominating 41-10 win in Week 5. It easily covered as a 10 ½-point home favorite and the total stayed ‘under’ the 53-point line. Avon Cobourne’s 115 yards on the ground along with another 166 yards receiving and two scores led the way for the Alouettes.
Two weeks later Toronto turned the tables on Montreal with a 37-22 victory on its home turf. The Argonauts were a 7 ½-point home underdog in their first outright victory over the Alouettes since 2007. The total went ‘over’ the 52-point line. This time it was Argos WR Chad Owens that came up big with six catches for 163 yards and two touchdowns.
These two teams finished the regular season with a home-and-home series in Week’s 18 and 19. Montreal came out on top the first time around with an improbable 37-30 victory on a last second missed field goal that had been kicked back into the field of play and later recovered in the end zone for the winning score in one of the wildest plays in CFL history. The Alouettes covered as a 4 ½-point road favorite and the total went ‘over’ 48.
The following week it was all Toronto in a 30-4 romp that evened the series at two games apiece. The Argonauts were a six-point road underdog but took advantage of the fact that both teams had decided to rest most of their starters given that their placed in the postseason was already set. The total stayed ‘under’ the 49 ½-point line.
Toronto is 5-5 both straight up and against the spread in its last 10 games. It is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games on the road and the total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of their last 10 games overall. The only game that went ‘over’ the total was the Argonauts Week 18 win over the Alouettes.
Montreal is 6-4 SU in its last 10 games but just 4-6 ATS. It is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in its last five games at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games.
Head-to-head, the Alouettes have won eight out of the last 10 games SU and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The cards are stacked against Toronto as a well-rested Montreal has had two weeks to prepare for this game after earning a first-round bye. All-star QB Anthony Calvillo and this high-powered Alouettes offense will prove to be too much for the Argos to handle as Montreal returns to its second straight Grey Cup with a dominating win.
CFL odds rematch in West Division Final
By: David Schwab
The Canadian Football League season is down to the final four and the Saskatchewan Roughriders will be gunning for their second straight trip to the Grey Cup when they take on the Calgary Stampeders in the CFL West Division final. Kickoff from MaMahon Stadium in Calgary this Sunday is set for 1:30 p.m. (PT).
Saskatchewan is returning to the West Division final for the second straight year, but this time it took an incredible 41-38 overtime victory over British Columbia last Sunday to get there. The Roughriders, a four-point home favorite, actually needed two overtimes to get by a Lions team that just refused to quit.
The game clincher was a 24-yard pass from Darian Durant to Jason Clermont in the second extra period that gave Saskatchewan the win and a trip back to the West Division finals. The 79-point total went well ‘over’ the 52-point line.
This Sunday’s game against Calgary is actually of repeat of last year’s division final, but this time the Stampeders earned a first round bye and home field advantage by virtue of winning the West in the regular season. Last year Saskatchewan came away with a 27-17 win as a three-point favorite and the total stayed ‘under’ the 54 ½=point line.
This time around Sportsinteraction.com has opened Calgary as a seven-point home favorite and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 55 ½ points.
This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this year after playing each other three times in the regular season. It was all Stampeders the first time they met in Week 4, as they blew open a close game with a 21-point barrage in the fourth quarter to come away with a 40-20 victory as a two-point home favorite. The total went ‘over’ the 55 ½-point line. The combination of QB Henry Burris to WR Romby Bryant proved to be the difference in this one as the two hooked up for seven receptions for 116 yards and two touchdowns.
The second game in Week 12 went to Saskatchewan, as the Roughriders clawed their way back from an early 10-point deficit to finally punch out a 43-37 win in overtime. They covered as a 3 ½-point home underdog and once again the game went ‘over’ 54 ½. This time it was the combination of Durant to WR Andy Fantuz that did most of the damage for the Roughriders. Fantuz ended the day with 10 catches for 255 yards and one TD.
Calgary won the rubber match, 34-26, as a one-point road underdog in Week 16. The total went ‘over’ for the third straight time with the line set at 57 ½. Burris was once again the difference as he engineered two long third quarter scoring drives to erase a nine-point deficit and help secure the win for the Stampeders.
Saskatchewan is 5-4 straight-up in its last nine games, but 4-5 against the spread. The Roughriders are 2-3 both SU and ATS in their last five road games and the total has gone ‘over’ in six of their last nine games overall.
Calgary is 6-4 SU in its last 10 games and 5-4-1 ATS. The Stamps are 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five games at home and the total has gone ‘over’ in nine of their last 10 games overall.
Head-to-head, Saskatchewan has won three out of the last five games SU and is also 3-2 ATS. The home team is 4-1 both SU and ATS in the last five games.
Calgary is well-rested and has a huge advantage playing this game at home, but last week’s win over the Lions does shift some momentum back towards the Roughriders. The Stampeders punch their ticket to the Grey Cup with the outright win, but stick with Saskatchewan to cover with the seven points.
CFL Conference Finals
Toronto (10-9) @ Montreal (12-6) - Teams split four meetings this year with road team winning in last two weeks of regular season. Argos lost 41-10/37-30, won 37-22/30-4. Montreal is 1-4 vs spread last five games as home favorite. Toronto is playing on road for fourth time in last five weeks; they're 5-3 in last eight games as dog. Eight of last nine Toronto games, three of last four Montreal games stayed under total.
Saskatchewan (11-8) @ Calgary (13-5) - Stampeders won two of three in series this year, with only loss in OT; they beat Riders 40-20 (-1.5) in Week 4, then lost 43-37 in OT in Regina (-3) in Week 12, before winning 34-26 in Regina (+1.5) four weeks later. Saskatchewan is 2-4 in last six games; Calgary scored 90 points in winning its last two games, after 2-4 skid that followed their 9-1 start. Over is 11-1 in last 12 Calgary games.
TORONTO (10 - 9) at MONTREAL (12 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 8-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (11 - 8) at CALGARY (13 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 147-114 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 147-114 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 84-53 ATS (+25.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-4 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-4 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Montreal's last 10 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan