CFL Betting Notes - Semis
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The 2016 CFL regular season came to a close this past weekend and Winnipeg was able to avenge a previous loss to Ottawa in the backend of a home-and-home series with a 33-20 victory on Friday as a four-point road favorite. Montreal closed out its season with a 32-25 win over Hamilton as a 2½-point road underdog in the first of three Saturday games.
Edmonton tuned up for the postseason with a 41-17 rout of Toronto as a 3½-point favorite at home and the regular season ended with British Columbia pounding Saskatchewan 41-18 as a heavy 15-point home favorite to pull off the sweep that home-and-home West Division clash.
East Division Semifinals
Edmonton Eskimos (10-8 SU, 8-9-1 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-11 SU, 6-12 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -2½
Total: 56½
Game Overview
The Eskimos come into the playoffs as a crossover team from the West in what could easily be a direct path back to the Grey Cup Championship against a very weak lineup of East Division teams. They have gotten hot down the stretch with a 5-1 run both straight-up and against the spread over their past six games. The total went OVER 50 in this past Saturday’s win and it has gone OVER in three of their last five games.
Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly sat out last week’s game and still led the CFL in passing with 5,554 yards on the year. He was second in the league in touchdown throws with 28. Reilly also showed great mobility with 406 yards and nine scores on the ground. Running back John White was fourth in the CFL in rushing with 886 yards and he found the end zone eight times.
You can honestly say that Hamilton backed into the playoffs on the strength of it early season record. Since an early September loss to Toronto as 6½-point road favorites, the Tiger-Cats have just two SU wins in their last eight games. Even worse for bettors is a 1-7 record ATS over this same stretch of games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last seven games.
To have any shot at advancing to the East finals, Hamilton is going to need a big effort from quarterback Zach Collaros. He ended the regular season with 2,938 passing yards and 18 touchdown throws while battling through an injury-plagued campaign. When his game is on he has proven to be one of the top passers in the league. Hamilton will also need a much better effort from a defense that has allowed at least 29 points in each of its last five games.
Betting Trends
The road team has won the last four meetings both SU and ATS. Edmonton beat the Tiger-Cats 29-26 on Oct. 28 as 2½-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER the 57½-point closing line in that game and it has stayed UNDER in four of the last six games in this inter-division matchup.
West Division Semifinals
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (12-6 SU, 13-5 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -5
Total: 55
Game Overview
The Blue Bombers went 3-1 both SU and ATS in their last four regular season games with Friday’s win at Ottawa and they come into this game with a 7-2 record ATS on the road this year. They have also been a solid bet as underdogs with a 7-2-1 record ATS when getting points. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven games.
Matt Nichols took over the starting role at quarterback mid-summer and he led Winnipeg to a 10-3 SU record in 13 games. He is fifth on the list in total passing yards with 3,666 and he has tossed 18 touchdowns on the year. Another big part of this offense is running back Andrew Harris with 974 rushing yards on the year. The Blue Bombers averaged 27.6 points a game this season, while allowing an average of 25.2 points on the other side of the ball.
BC needed that win over Saskatchewan to lock up home field advantage for this game and with that victory it closed out the regular season with a 4-2 record both SU and ATS in its last six games. The total went OVER in four of those contests. The Lions are 6-3 ATS at home this season and they went 8-3 ATS when closing as favorites. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games played at home.
The combination of Jonathon Jennings throwing the ball to slotback Emmanuel Arceneaux accounted for 1,566 yards and 13 touchdowns on 105 receptions. Jennings ended the year with 5,226 passing yards which was third-most in the CFL and he was also third in touchdown throws with 27. BC was able to average 30.3 points a game on offense and its defense matches up exactly with Winnipeg in points allowed (25.2).
Betting Trends
These division foes met twice this year with Winnipeg pulling off the season sweep both SU and ATS. They last met on Oct. 14 and the Blue Bombers outlasted BC 35-32 as 5½-point road underdogs. The total went well OVER the 56-point closing line in that win and it has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings. Winnipeg is now 4-0 (SU and ATS) in its last four games against BC.
EDMONTON (10 - 8 ) at HAMILTON (7 - 11) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
HAMILTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (11 - 7) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (12 - 6) - 11/13/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in games played on turf this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 5-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON vs. HAMILTON
Edmonton is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Hamilton's last 25 games at home
WINNIPEG vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of British Columbia's last 14 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
StatFox Super Situations
EDMONTON at HAMILTON
Play On - Underdogs or pick (HAMILTON) revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite 34-8 since 1997. ( 81.0% | 25.2 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
EDMONTON at HAMILTON
Play On - Any team vs the money line (HAMILTON) off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record 67-52 since 1997. ( 56.3% | 0.0 units ) 4-4 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
WINNIPEG at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WINNIPEG) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season 30-6 since 1997. ( 83.3% | 23.4 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
CFL Playoffs
Edmonton (11-7) @ Hamilton (8-10) — Eskimos are on road for 5th time in last six games; they won five of last six games, with only loss 32-25 at BC three weeks ago. Edmonton is 3-1 vs spread as a road favorite this year. Hamilton lost five of last six games, with only win in OT at Ottawa; they’ve lost last four home games, are 0-1 as a home underdog. Teams split season series for 5th year in row; road team won both meetings this year, TiCats (+4.5) winning 37-31 in Edmonton July 23, then losing 29-26 at home to Eskimos two weeks ago. Edmonton won four of last six visits here. Four of last six series games stayed under total.
Winnipeg (11-7) @ British Columbia (12-6) — Blue Bombers went 10-3 in last 13 games after a 1-4 start; they won seven of last eight road games, with only loss by 2 at Calgary. Six of last seven Winnipeg games went over the total. Bombers are 6-3 vs spread as an underdog this year; they won last four series games, sweeping BC this season, 37-35/35-32; four of last five series games went over. Lions scored 32.7 pts/game in winning last three games, but two of those were vs lowly Saskatchewan; BC is 8-3 as a favorite this year- four of their last six games went over the total.
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