CFL Week 1: Analysis and Predictions
By Charles-André Marchand
Toronto Argonauts (4-14 in 2008) vs Hamilton Tiger Cats (3-15 in 2008)
These two teams invited no less than 90 new players at their training camps. Toronto wishes the acquisition of linebacker Zeke Moreno will transform their defence but will he be surrounded adequately? Nothing is less sure. At QB, the Argonauts look better off with Kerry Joseph but many will predict a very bright future to Quinton Porter, Hamilton’s quarterback. But just when is that future? These are two teams trying to rebuild and at the present time, Hamilton shows many more question marks and therefore could most likely miss the playoffs for a fifth year in a row.
Prediction: Toronto
Montreal Alouettes (11-7 in 2008) vs Calgary Stampeders (13-5 in 2008)
The Grey Cup finalists square off once more, this time in Calgary at McMahon Stadium. The nucleus of both teams is pretty much intact yet you can expect a lot of points to be scored in that game where two of the best passers in the CFL, Anthony Calvillo et Henry Burris, will face each other. The defensive line of the Stampeders remains suspect while the Als will show a rejuvenated defence that will try to play more aggressively. This could be a preview of the next Grey Cup game but for this opening night, the Stampeders, with the support of their loyal fans, should prevail. But it might very well be by a narrow margin.
Prediction: Calgary
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-10 in 2008 vs Edmonton Eskimos (10-8 in 2008)
The Eskimos may be the most improved team in the CFL and they could even end up wining the Western Conference. The Blue Bombers have also improved during the offseason and they should be pursuing the Alouettes for the Eastern Conference title. But one can still wonder if Stefan LeFors is the QB that will bring them back to the glory days in Winnipeg. If the youthful secondary of the Eskimos hangs on, their new head coach Richie Hall could celebrate his first win at the helm of this Edmonton squad.
Prediction: Edmonton
B.C. Lions (11-7 in 2008) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-6 in 2008)
The Lions will miss defensive end Cam Wake and running back Stefan Logan, who both departed for the riches of the NFL. And that’s without mentioning the losses of tackle Rob Murphy, slotback Jason Clermont or linebacker Otis Floyd. But the Lions still have tremendous passing power and defensively they are still stronger than the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Riders are a squad who seem condemned to a year of misery, especially with many injuries at key positions for the start of this season. B.C. fans probably won’t have has many reasons to rejoice this season as in the past but at least they should celebrate a victory this week in Regina.
Prediction: B.C.
CFL Season Betting Preview
If bettors are looking for something to hold them over until college and NFL football begins, the CFL is a great way to warm up your wagering. Our Canadian Football League insider gives you his predictions for the 2009 season.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Prediction
1. Edmonton Eskimos 16-2
2. Calgary Stampeders 12-6
3. B.C. Lions 5-13
4. Saskatchewan Roughriders 4-14
EDMONTON ESKIMOS (+200 to win Grey Cup)
Certainties
The acquisition of injury-prone halfback Jesse Lumsden could make a world of difference for this offence. Ricky Ray and slot back Kamaur Peterson are still the pillars of the offence. On the defensive side, the additions of linebacker Maurice Lloyd, defensive halfback Kelly Malveaux and defensive end Kai Ellis beef up the Eskimos depth chart.
Question Marks
The biggest lost is slot back Kelly Campbell, who received an invitation from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL. But this team has plenty of good receives and his absence should go unnoticed.
CALGARY STAMPEDERS (+175)
Certainties
Henry Burris is still one of the best QBs in the league and he can still rely on slotback Nik Lewis or WR Ken-Yon Rambo. Halfback Joffrey Reynolds is also back, giving Burris a chance to diversify the schemes. The addition of former QB Dave Dickenson as an assistant offensive coordinator should reinforce a very capable coaching staff led by coach of the year John Hufnagel.
Question Marks
The Stampeders defensive front will suffer from the departure of defensive end Charleston Hughes (Philadelphia Eagles). The special teams unit will miss long snapper Pat Macdonald (Carolina Panthers).
B.C. LIONS (+500)
Certainties
The Lions offensive will still be a threat with Buck Pierce at QB and many talented targets around him, including slot backs Geroy Simon and Paris Jackson. The secondary is still solid with the returns of linebacker Barron Miles and defensive backs Korey Bank and Bren Johnson.
Question Marks
Can the Lions replace a defensive end with the skills of Cam Wake (Miami Dolphins) or a fullback like Stefan Logan (Pittsburgh Steelers)? Those two losses alone should hurt the Lions considerably during the course of the season.
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS (+1300)
Certainties
The Roughriders will score plenty of points. There is no doubt about that. Michael Bishop has been fired but Darian Durant is a very efficient QB and will be surrounded by halfback Wes Cates, slotback Andy Fantuz and WR Weston Dressler. The addition of local star Jason Clermont gives even more depth to the offence, despite the loss of good players to free agency and trades made for economical purposes.
Question Marks
Linebacker Scott Gordon left Regina for Edmonton as a free agent. Linebackers Anton MacKenzie and Kitwana Jones also took off. The offensive line was weakened by the departures of Steve Morley and Glen January during free agency.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Prediction
1. Montreal Alouettes 12-6
2. Winnipeg Blue Bombers 11-7
3. Toronto Argonauts 6-12
4. Hamilton Tiger Cats 4-14
MONTREAL ALOUETTES (+375 to win Grey Cup)
Certainties
The nucleus that took the Als to the Grey Cup final is pretty much intact but training camp showed lots of upcoming players that could soon develop into key elements. Adrian McPherson took over Brad Banks No. 2 spot behind starting QB Anthony Calvillo. Linebacker Shea Emry was so brilliant he stole veteran Reggie Hunt’s job and behind Avon Cobourne, young halfbacks like Brendan Whittaker made a big impression.
Question Marks
The Alouettes will have a much improved defence and will rely more on man-to-man coverage. Still, they have to find a way to concede less rushing yards. If Montreal was the least generous in points allowed, it was far more generous in terms of yards allowed.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS (+1100)
Certainties
If former Eskimo Stefan LeFors becomes the QB they hope, the Blue Bombers will tail the Alouettes all season long. If not, their season will resemble the last one: a second place finish with a record under .500. The offensive line is improved with the acquisitions of Glenn January from Edmonton and former Alouette Luke Fritz, who showed up in the best physical condition of his career. The Bombers running game will also be very dangerous with the likes of Fred Reid and Lavarius Giles.
Question Marks
The Blue Bombers defence lost many key elements. Linebacker Zeke Moreno was traded to Toronto, defensive end Kelly Malveaux has been shipped to Edmonton, tackle Jerome Haywood and cornerback Stanford Samuels chose to sign with Montreal as free agents and defensive end is now with the Eskimos.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS (+875)
Certainties
New head coach Bart Andrus has the hefty job of leading these Argos to victory and respectability. The Argos did replenish during the offseason and certain acquisitions will have an immediate impact. The offensive line is solid with the arrivals of free agents Rob Murphy and Dominic Picard.
Question Marks
The defensive front of the Argos is a cause for concern – and so is the secondary. Unless newcomers start emerging quickly, Toronto will continue to give up too much yardage.
HAMILTON TIGER CATS (+1600)
Certainties
Quinton Porter will be the No. 1 QB but Kevin Glenn, acquired through free agency, will be ready to take over if that should prove necessary. The offensive line has improved with the acquisitions of tackles Alexandre Gauthier and Dan Goodspeed. Former Alouette Dave Stala is an experienced WR that will prove useful to Porter.
Question Marks
The question marks are so numerous with the Tiger Cats that one wonders where to start. Their excellent but fragile HB Jesse Lumsden is gone to Edmonton, leaving Terry Caulley’s responsible for the running game. If the offensive line crumbles, he won’t be able to do much.
2009 Canadian Football League Betting Odds
It's hard to believe but the Canadian Football League kicks off play this Wednesday. Sportsbook.com has a wide variety of 2009 Canadian Football League betting odds.
One of the most popular football futures wagers - whether in the CFL or the NFL - is the over/under total of regular-season wins for each team.
Sportsbook.com has win totals for all eight CFL teams, with the highest total at 12.5 for the defending Grey Cup champion Calgary Stampeders. Over pays +100 while the under is -130.
It should be noted that the Stampeders are a little banged up heading into the 2009 season.
A rash of injuries coming out of training camp, however, has injected unease into the club heading into their season-opener Wednesday against Montreal (TSN, 10 p.m. ET).
"I was pleased with our training camp, but there are some concerns that I had and I still have them," head coach and GM John Hufnagel said.
On the offensive line, Jesse Newman (ankle) missed all of training camp and another starter Jeff Pilon (knee) also just recently started practicing. Derek Armstrong (torn bicep) is out indefinitely.
Quarterback and Grey Cup MVP Henry Burris, who recently signed a four-year contract extension, doesn't believe he'll be on the run to start the season, however.
"We're going to find guys to put there that can make it happen," Burris declared. "We have depth and that's the thing that's made us successful.
"We have injuries all across the board right now, just like every team does coming out of camp and pre-season games. The teams that have guys that can step in and continue execution and do their part, those teams will be successful especially early on."
Next up are the B.C. Lions and Edmonton Eskimos, both of which are expected to challenge Calgary for the West Division title. Both teams are at 11.5 wins, with B.C. at +120 for the over and -150 for under, and Edmonton at -115 for over and under.
There's been a change of personnel and a shift of attitude on the B.C. Lions this season.
"We're not a team anymore that has laurels placed upon us for no reason," said veteran centre Angus Reid. "That's probably a good thing.
"Being the best for a long time and being expected to be the best . . . human nature would start to make you believe that. Now they say we're not. Human nature now is go out and prove critics wrong."
The Lions slipped to third in the CFL West last season with a 11-7-0 record. It was the first time in five years B.C. didn't finish first in the division.
A painful loss to Calgary in the West Final signalled a winter of change for the Lions. B.C. was 0-2 in the exhibition season, losing to Calgary and Edmonton. The team's first test of the regular season will be Friday when the Lions play the Roughriders in Regina.
"I think there is reason to be optimistic and I think there is reason to understand that there is a lot of work to be done," said Buono, who is entering his 20th season as head coach and seventh with B.C.
"I think the West is going to be very competitive and I believe we can be very competitive ourselves. I think we've fixed a number of areas. Have we fixed all of them? I think that is still a work in progress."
Eskimos head coach, Richie Hall, said of his team coming into the new season:
"There's been a lot of changeover. It's just a matter of us coming together."
For the Eskimos, good times returned in 2008 after two consecutive years in the non-playoff wilderness. The Double-E was 10-8 in the regular season and finished last in the West Division, but made the East playoffs as a crossover team. They lost 36-26 to the Montreal Alouettes in the division final.
Then there's the Grey Cup finalist Montreal Alouettes at 10.5 wins, with the over favored at -140 and the under at +110.
Other 2009 Canadian Football League Betting Odds available are division and Grey Cup winners, with Calgary a +175 favorite to win the West, followed by Edmonton (+225), B.C. (+250) and longshot Saskatchewan Roughriders (+500).
Things aren't as tight in the East, where Montreal is a big, -250 favorite to win the division. The Toronto Argonauts are +550, followed by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+650) and Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+700).
Calgary is a +250 favorite to repeat as CFL champions and win the 2009 Grey Cup, followed by Edmonton at +400, B.C. (+450) and Montreal (+600).
Saskatchewan (+900), Toronto (+1200), Winnipeg (+1200) and Hamilton (+1400) are the Grey Cup longshots.
Calgary won the 2008 Grey Cup with a 22-14 win over Montreal last November.
😀 wrong league