CFL Week 10 power poll
By ALEX SMART
1: Edmonton Eskimos (5-3/1-0) (5-2-1 ATS) (LW: 3)
A 5-2-1 mark ATS and a 27-10 victory over the No. 1 team in the CFL Power Poll is more than enough to jump the Eskimos all the way up to the top spot this week. They easily covered the spread as six-point favorites against the Roughriders, and used a stifling defensive effort to hold Saskatchewan scoreless for the final three quarters and keep the game well under the closing ‘total’ for CFL bettors. QB Ricky Ray is making a good push for Most Outstanding Player honors, as he is second in the league in passing (2,584 yards) and has been the glue that has pushed the green and gold within a game of the Western Division lead.
Next up: Away @ Calgary (5-3)
2: Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-2/0-1) (6-2 ATS) (LW: 1)
After back-to-back poor performances against Calgary and Edmonton, it’s time to move the Riders out of the top spot of the poll. The offence was serviceable in the first quarter of their Week 9 betting affair, putting up ten points against the Edmonton defense, but they failed to score again after that. The 27-10 loss was the second consecutive game in which the Riders failed to cover the spread after six straight covers to start the season. It looks like Saskatchewan is set to turn to their fourth different quarterback of the year, as the team has traded for former Kansas State QB Michael Bishop, presumably to take over the reigns from Marcus Crandell, who has struggled since coming back from an injury a month ago.
Next up: Home vs. Winnipeg (2-6)
3: Montreal Alouettes (5-3/0-0) (5-3 ATS) (LW: 3)
Montreal bettors hope that the Alouettes don’t change a thing going into the second half of the season. These next two games are huge for the Als, hosting the slumping Lions and Argonauts. If they can win both of these match-ups, they’ll be coasting towards an Eastern Division title after being 10-1 long shots to win the division at the beginning of the season.
Next up: Home vs. BC (4-4)
4: Calgary Stampeders (5-3/1-0) (5-3 ATS) (LW: 5)
In their Week 9 betting match-up, the Stamps posted their most significant victory of the season, breaking a long hex of bad luck in BC Place with their 36-29 victory over the defending Western Division champs. They easily covered the spread as three-point underdogs, and their game-winning touchdown with inside 3:00 remaining pushed the game over the ‘total’. The Stamps can still be players for the Western Division title, but they need to at least manage a split with the Eskimos, beginning with their Labor Day Classic in Calgary on Monday.
Next up: Home vs. Edmonton (5-3)
5: British Columbia Lions (4-4/0-0) (3-5 ATS) (LW: 4)
It appears as though the BC Lions are really in deep trouble after dropping into last place in the West following their 36-29 home loss to the Stampeders. For the second straight game, HC Wally Buono has pulled the plug on Jarious Jackson in favor of Buck Pierce, once again stirring up the controversy over which quarterback should be under center for the remainder of the season. If there’s good news for the slumping Leos, they’re still comfortably in the playoffs because of the crossover spot, and they’re still just two games behind Saskatchewan for the Western lead. They’ve got two road games against Eastern Division opponents this week, which could be the perfect remedy for moving back into the Western playoff picture.
Next up: Away @ Montreal (5-3)
6: Toronto Argonauts (3-5/0-0) (2-5-1 ATS) (LW: 6)
While there is quarterback controversy throughout the rest of the CFL, the Argonauts erased all doubts about who their starting QB is when they used their bye week to deal Michael Bishop to the Saskatchewan Roughriders for a conditional draft pick. HC Rich Stubler has unconditionally turned the ball over to Kerry Joseph, the 2007 Most Outstanding Player, in hope that things will begin to turn around on Monday, when they head into Ivor-Wynne Stadium to take on the Ti-Cats as part of the Labour Day Classic.
Next up: Away @ Hamilton (2-6)
7: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-6/0-0) (2-6 ATS) (LW: 7)
Winnipeg is about set to embark on a stretch of games that will decide their season. They have back-to-back betting match-ups with the team with the best record in the CFL, then travel to Toronto and Hamilton. It is very possible that the Bombers could be 2-10 in another month, and if that’s the case, Winnipeg will certainly miss the playoffs for the first time since they were a part of the Western Division. HC Doug Berry still has his job, but the bye week made a good forum for fans all around Winnipeg to wonder why.
Next up: Away @ Saskatchewan (6-2)
8: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-6/0-0) (3-5 ATS) (LW: 8)
Hamilton has had two weeks to prepare for their annual Labor Day Classic against the Toronto Argonauts, the only team in the CFL they have registered a victory against. Much like Winnipeg, it could be all over but the crying for the black and gold in these next three weeks. After hosting their provincial rival, they take on BC and Edmonton, and losses in those three games could leave the Tabbies at 2-9 and a long way behind the fourth place team in the West or Toronto for the final playoff spot. It would be a tremendous statement to beat the Eastern Division pre-season favorites for a third time this week.
Next up: Home vs. Toronto (3-5)
Friday, August 29
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BRITISH COLUMBIA (4 - 4) at MONTREAL (5 - 3) - 8/29/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in August games since 1996.
MONTREAL is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, August 31
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WINNIPEG (2 - 6) at SASKATCHEWAN (6 - 2) - 8/31/2008, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 122-92 ATS (+20.8 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 122-92 ATS (+20.8 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 111-82 ATS (+20.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-1 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, September 1
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EDMONTON (5 - 3) at CALGARY (5 - 3) - 9/1/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TORONTO (3 - 5) at HAMILTON (2 - 6) - 9/1/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1996.
TORONTO is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 since 1996.
HAMILTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-3 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Trend Sheet
Friday, August 29
7:30 PM BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. MONTREAL
British Columbia is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games
British Columbia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Montreal is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games when playing British Columbia
Montreal is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing British Columbia
Sunday, August 31
3:00 PM WINNIPEG vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Winnipeg is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
Monday, September 1
4:00 PM EDMONTON vs. CALGARY
Edmonton is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Calgary is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Edmonton
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
7:30 PM TORONTO vs. HAMILTON
Toronto is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Hamilton
Toronto is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Hamilton
Hamilton is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Hamilton is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games at home
ATS Previews and Picks
By Ron Raymond
One of the best kept secrets in football is the CFL Labor Day Classic games, as these are the Canadian Football League's most popular double-header matches of the year and they carry many memories to long living CFL fans. Week 10 will kick off in Montreal with the Lions travelling to face the surging Alouettes. On Sunday, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers travel to Mosaaic Stadium for a showdown with the first place Roughriders. Then on Labor Day Monday, the Edmonton Eskimos and Calgary Stampeders will headline the Game of the Week; as both teams are 5-3 SU and depending on the Roughriders outcome on Sunday, could be sharing the top spot in the west with Saskatchewan. Finally, the other game on Monday is the showdown in Steel town, the 3-5 SU Argonauts travel down the QEW to face the 2-6 SU Tiger Cats. Both games on Monday will have plenty of energy in the stands and should deliver great memories. Enjoy the Classic CFL fans!
BC Lions (58.5) vs. Montreal (-4)
Lions vs. Alouettes History: The Lions are 10-3-0 (ATS), 3-10 (SU) and the O/U is 7-6-0 since 1996 in Montreal.
The BC Lions have been in some ways the Argos of the West at 4-4 SU on the season. In fact, when you look at it from an "us and them" situation, they have a QB controversy with Jarious Jackson and Buck Pierce. The Lions don't have an established running game and this Logan or Joe Smith situation smells like "what the hell is this all about?" Seriously, Joe Smith was a dominating factor for the Lions last season, why has he fallen in Wally's dog house? The defense is probably a touch better then the older looking Argos and the kicking game is a coin flip. However, the Lions are in a tougher division and the teams ahead of them are playing consistent football. In fact, the Lions can easily be a 6-2 SU football team, but they need more consistency at the QB position. The Lions are coming off a tough 32-29 lost toe the Stampeders and have allowed 35 points against in their last 3 games. All of the Lions last 4 games have gone OVER the total and they average 28 points for on the road this season. Montreal on the other hand, must be considered the current favorites to represent in the East for the Grey Cup. The Alouettes are doing everything right these days and head coach Marc Trestman must be given a ton of credit for getting this team back on track. The Alouettes were always a power house offense with Calvillo at the helm, but it's their defense which deserves the credit for helping this team gets to the top in the East. They?ve only allowed 19 points against in their last 3 games and have been solid on the road in their last 2 wins. Montreal is on a 3 game winning streak, but will have a tough task vs. a Lions team who will be looking to stay out of the losing column. From a point spread point of view, the Lions are 11-0-1 ATS on the road in August vs. a non-division opponent and that's going back to 1996. Another tough stat going against BC, Montreal is 14-2 SU at home in August during Week 8 to 12 of a CFL season. When it's all said and done, I believe this game will be decided by a big play on special teams and look for a long punt return or a missed field goal return for a TD to be the main reason for the win!
forecast: Montreal 29 BC Lions 18
Stat of the Game: When MONTREAL team played as Home team as a Favorite -During the month of August -Before a division game; The Alouettes are 11-0 SU in this role since '96.
Winnipeg (51) vs. Saskatchewan (-3)
Blue Bombers at Roughriders History: The Bombers are 7-9-0 (ATS), 6-10 (SU) and the O/U is 10-5-1 since 1996 in Saskatchewan.
What looked like a team that was flirting with perfection through six week is now a team who will face their biggest game of the year and here's the reason why I'm stating this fact. When the Riders lost their first game of the year 30-25 to Calgary a few weeks back, it was a close game that could have went either way. However, they got man handled last week in Edmonton 27-10 and lost by 17 points. Now, this third game will be major challenge for the boys from Regina on how this story plays out the rest of the year. If the Riders win in a convincible fashion, they are for real and just went through a hiccup stage the last few weeks. However, if they lose and lose bad, then it's the law of averages taking care of business on the back side. The Bombers remind me of a dysfunctional family who have all the right pieces to the puzzle, but can't find the corner pieces to lay the foundation. Winnipeg is only as good as when Charles Robert is playing dominating football, and he's yet to find his form this season. In the meantime, it's the QB position who is accepting all the mud being slung their way. Until Roberts gets his act together, the QB position will be the person getting all the blamed or all the glory for wins and loses. The Bombers have a chance to start a good streak in the second half of the season and be the Argos of the 2007 season. Winnipeg won 37-29 last week to Hamilton and is coming off a 2 game home stand. If you?re thinking this game might be decided by defenses, there's a good chance you are right! The UNDER is 8-2-0 for Winnipeg when they are a road team after a division game and the total is between 49.5 and 51.0. However, if you're backing up the Riders this Sunday, they are 7-3 SU and 6-4-0 ATS as a Home Favorite during Week 8 to 12 vs. these same Bombers. Defense will be the story of this game in my view.
forecast: Saskatchewan 19 Winnipeg 17
Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as a Road team -Before a non division game - Coming off a 2 game Home stand - Allowed scored 24 points or less against - Coming off a game scored 35 points or more; The UNDER is 12-6-0 for the Road Team in this position.
Edmonton (57) vs. Calgary (-5.5)
Eskimos at Stampeders History: The Eskimos are 9-14-0 (ATS), 10-13 (SU) and the O/U is 8-15-0 since 1996 in Calgary.
What a great way to start the Labor Day classics with a good old fashion shootout at the Calgary "ok coral"! The Eskimos and Stampeders could switch players and you wouldn't know the difference, that's how identical these two Alberta teams have been this season. Both teams are 5-3 SU on the season and both are averaging 32 Points For on offense this year. However, the Stampeders have been the better defensive team and the kicking game is pretty much a coin toss too with DeAngelis and Prefontaine having great seasons! Edmonton is coming off a nice butt kicking last week, as they smoked the Roughriders 27-10 at home, but when an away underdog has allowed 10 points or less in their last game, they are only 19-35 SU in their next game. Therefore, this will be a big statement game for Ricky Ray and the Eskimos to prove they are true contenders of the Western Division and look for Henry Burris to outshine Ricky Ray on Monday. Calgary is coming of an emotional road win in BC, where they scored in the last minute of the game to steal a win. The last two games for the Stamps have gone OVER the total and expect another sell out at McMahon Stadium in this "Battle of Alberta" on Monday. Another betting angle that supports the Stampeders; the Eskimos are only 4-11 SU as a +3.5 to +6.5 point underdog vs. a division foe and they are coming off a division opponent. Plus, here's a CFL trend that goes back to 1996 that supports the Stamps this week; when any CFL team is a Home Favorite during a Monday game in September, they are 12-3 SU in this betting spot. I see this being a classic shootout game, but Calgary and the home crowd goes home happy! But not ATS Happy?
forecast: Calgary 31 Edmonton 30
Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as Home team as a Favorite -During the month of September -Before a conference game -During Week 8 to 12 - Allowed scored 30 points or less against; The Home Fave is 10-2 SU in this position since '96.
Toronto (54.5) vs. Hamilton (-3)
Argonauts vs. Tiger Cats History: The Argos are 11-11-1 (ATS), 12-10-1 (SU) and the O/U is 10-13-0 since 1996 in Hamilton.
Well, this is too easy to start ripping the Argos and where they went wrong from training camp to where they are at today. If anything, I'm very disappointed in Michael "Pinball" Clemons for letting Rich Stubbler take most of the heat for the Argos struggle this season. Let's focus on the main reason why the Argos are in this 3-5 SU situation and it starts with leadership. Who is the leader on this team? The defense is getting old, some veteran players don't have the football speed to attack the holes, and they can't establish a running game on offense and nobody knows for sure who?s calling the offense. I'm a handicapper and I can see this from my living room, which makes me wonder what the hell they do all week in practice? The Bishop thing was a given and should have been rectified weeks ago, but you can't be averaging 18 Points For on offense and expect to win football games in a pass happy league like the CFL. The Argos are coming off a 32-14 lost to Montreal and they'll be facing a Hamilton team who are loose, but will be keeping a close eye on Casey Printers who's coming back from a thumb injury. I think this is a marketing move by the Tiger Cats, because Richie Williams is the real deal and I haven't seen a Tiger Cats offense score so many points in 3 consecutive games since the Danny Mac days. Hamilton has been averaging 34 points per game in their last 3 outings, but they still need to find a way to tighten it up on defense, because 32.67 Points Against in their last 3 games is the main reason why they are not 3-0 in their last 3 games. Well, when it rain it pours as they say and here's more ammunition for the media to beat up Toronto; the Argos are in a horrible position on Monday, they are 1-11 SU as a Road Underdog vs. division foes during Week 8-12 of a CFL season. Hamilton on the other hand are perfect in September as a home favorite during week 8 to 10; like 9-0-1 SU perfect since '96. The bookmakers have this number right, I like the Tabbies to win by a field goal!
forecast: Hamilton 27 Toronto 24
Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL team played as Road team as a Underdog -During the month of September - Allowed score 31 points or more against; The Road Dog is 8-25 SU in this role since 1996.
CFL betting: Week 10 preview and picks
By CHARLES-ANDRÉ MARCHAND
British Columbia Lions (4-4) at Montreal Alouettes (5-3 ) (Alouettes by 4)
This game could very well be a preview to the Grey Cup which will be played at Montreal’s Olympic Stadium next November. The Lions, despite some quarterback controversy surrounding former Notre-Dame star Jarious Jackson and back-up turned number one Buck Pierce, have played recently much better football, although they lost last to Calgary, 32-29. Historically, B.C. always seem to be more successful in the second half of the season. The Alouettes can’t seem to win in Vancouver (8 losses in a row) but, overall, since 1995, they edged B.C. with a 13-12 record. The explosive offence of Montreal could create problems to the Lions defence that has been allowing almost 30 points a game so far this season. The Alouettes are coming off a bye week after beating Toronto 32-14 in week 8. Anthony Calvillo threw three touchdown passes while Avon Cobourne had a fabulous game, with 103 yards receiving, 107 yards gained on the running game, and a touchdown. It was the third consecutive win for the Alouettes who will try to avenge the 36-34 loss suffered to the Lions last month at B.C. Place.
Pick: Montréal (-4)
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-6) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-2) (Saskatchewan by 3)
After winning six games in a row, the reigning Grey Cup Champs have their last two games including a brutal 27-10 loss to the Edmonton Eskimos in week 9! Marcus Crandell had a terrible night, completing only six passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. The Blue Bombers, who are coming off a bye week, won 37-24 against Hamilton in week 8. Kevin Glenn threw for 285 yards, completing 24 of 37 pass attempts for one touchdown. Charles Roberts rushed for 145 yards and pair of touchdowns. But expect defence to be the difference in this game and if that’s the case, it will be to advantage of the Roughriders who, so far this season, as allowed about 23 points a game while Winnipeg concedes around 30 points a game. In short, the Blue Bombers usually give up one more touchdown each game than the Riders…and it probably won’t be different this coming Sunday.
Pick: Saskatchewan (-3)
Edmonton Eskimos (5-3) at Calgary Stampeders (5-3) (Calgary by 5.5)
This has all the ingredients to be THE game to watch on Labour Day! These great Albertan rivals both have a 5-3 record and score around 30 points a game. Both teams average more than 300 passing yards a game, although Calgary has fared better running the ball and shutting off the opponents rushing, which actually is not strength on Edmonton’s side. Ricky Ray will need a strong performance to prove the Eskimos should be treated seriously as contenders for the Western division championship, but it will be a huge challenge against Calgary’s defensive squad, especially if their forced to rely only on their passing game. This being said, I would not recommend taking the Stampeders with a 5.5 points margin. Expect a shootout that will be resolved by less than three points.
Pick: Edmonton (+3)
Toronto Argonauts ( ) at Hamilton Tiger Cats ( ) (Hamilton by 3)
Kerry Joseph won’t have the responsibility of calling the Argos offensive plays and that should be good news for Toronto fans. But it also shows the lack of leadership of Joseph who felt distracted by play-calling! In fact, one gets to wonder if anybody has leadership in the Argos dressing room. CFL’s outstanding player last season has struggled so far in 2008, completing only 56.4 per cent of his passes and throwing six interceptions and only 4 touchdown passes! The Argonauts loss to Montreal in week 8, 32-14 and parted earlier this week with backup QB Michael Bishop, traded to Saskatchewan. It was the second consecutive loss for Toronto. The Tiger Cats lost their last game 37-24 to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but, if you compare stats, they score more points a game than the Argos and have a stronger running game led by Jesse Lumsden.
Pick: Hamilton (-3)
Week 10 CFL games
The four eastern teams had last weekend off.
Friday, August 29
BC Lions (4-4) @ Montreal (5-3)-- Alouettes won three in a row since 36-34 loss in British Columbia in Week 5, game when Als lost despite four takeaways (+2). Offensive wizard Trestman's Als scored 32+ points in seven of eight games so far. In their last four games, BC allowed 34-35-34-36 points, as all four went over total. Has all the makings of another shootout.
Sunday, August 31
Winnipeg (2-6) @ Saskatchewan (6-2)-- Riders lost last 2 games after 6-0 start, then traded for QB Bishop, as Crandell was 7-24 passing in last week's loss. Bombers are 0-3 on road, losing by 14-9-7 points- they scored 32-37 points in their two wins, after scoring average of 17.3 ppg in six losses. Riders gained total of just 549 yards in last two games, after averaging 390.3 first six
Monday, September 1
Edmonton (5-3) @ Calgary (5-3)-- Stampeders lost 34-31 back in Week 2 at Edmonton (-2.5); all three Stamp losses are by four or less points- they won last two games, both on road, scoring 30-36 points in upset wins at Regine, BC. Four of last five Calgary games went over total. Eskimos allowed 34-35-40 points in their three losses- they've won five of their last seven games.
Toronto (3-5) @ Hamilton (2-6)-- TiCats may be 2-6, but both wins are vs Arognauts; they ran ball 57 times for 620 yards in those two games- they're 0-5 when scoring less than 32 points. Six of last seven Hamilton games went over the total. Toronto got outgained 510-177 in its last game; they had a +8 turnover ratio in first six games, but don't have a takeaway last two (-4).