CFL Rolls On
By Bodog
The start of the NFL regular season is a double-edged sword for folks north of the border. On one hand, the CFL’s available talent pool is deeper now, thanks to the influx of players who were cut from camp down south. On the other hand, people who bet on the CFL as a summer football alternative are now fixated on the NFL.
So be it. A less active CFL market can be a boon for sharp handicappers – just like in college football, where the mid-majors hold more value than the BCS conferences. So let’s keep this money train rolling. The second half of the 2010 regular season begins this week with four very important stops on the road to the Grey Cup.
Friday: Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Eskimos (9:00 p.m. ET)
On Labour Day, the Stampeders (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) opened up a giant can on the Eskimos (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS), dropping their Alberta rivals 52-5 at McMahon Stadium. Calgary thumped Edmonton 56-15 at the same location last month. Other than the change in venue, there’s no real reason to recommend the Eskimos in this matchup. The Stamps are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS versus the Eskies over the past calendar year.
Edmonton head coach Richie Hall agrees. “We are not doing anything consistently on any area to sit there and give praise towards,” Hall told the Canadian Press on Tuesday. This was after the Eskimos gave up three safeties to Calgary in the Labour Day Massacre, gaining just five yards rushing in total. Check Bodog Sports for the latest CFL odds on this mismatch.
Saturday: Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1:00 p.m. ET)
Chris Leak had his opportunity. With starting QB Anthony Calvillo out with a bruised sternum for the Montreal Alouettes (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS), Leak got his first CFL start last week against the B.C. Lions. It didn’t go so well. Leak was 15-of-27 for 135 yards and a pair of interceptions in a 38-17 loss, coughing up the cash as 10.5-point home faves. To add insult to injury, QB Ricky Santos entered the game in the fourth quarter after Leak hurt his hip and engineered two TD drives for Montreal.
There have been mixed reports about Calvillo’s availability this week, but the latest word from the CP has the three-time Most Outstanding Player listed as doubtful. However, second-string QB Adrian McPherson (knee) has come off the injured list and is expected to start against the Tiger-Cats (5-4 SU and ATS). This is an opportunity for Hamilton to end a five-game losing streak (2-3 ATS) against the Alouettes; when they met in July, Montreal prevailed 37-14 as a 7-point home chalk.
Saturday: Toronto Argonauts at British Columbia Lions (4:00 p.m. ET)
While the Lions (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) were able to take advantage of Leak’s inexperience, QB Casey Printers also ended up on the sidelines for B.C., leaving the game in the third quarter with leg cramps. This doesn’t appear to be an issue heading into this weekend. Printers and the Lions offensive line worked well for a change against Montreal, although they had the benefit of strong field position.
The Argonauts (5-4 SU and ATS) have come back down to earth the past couple of weeks, losing a pair of games to Hamilton home and away. QB Cleo Lemon (seven TDs, eight INTs) failed to find the end zone in either contest. It’s bad enough for the Argos that they’re going to be the underdogs when they visit Empire Field, just like they were in July when they beat B.C. 24-20 as 1.5-point home puppies.
Sunday: Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1:00 p.m. ET)
The Blue Bombers (2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS) rolled the dice on QB Buck Pierce, and it looks like they crapped out. Pierce dislocated his elbow last week against the Green Riders (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) and might not play again this season. Steven Jyles (eight TDs, two INTs) will get the start for Winnipeg in this week’s rematch – he’s played very well this year in relief of the oft-injured Pierce.
If only the Riders could get those kind of results from their starter. Darian Durant (11 TDs, 13 INTs) has been mediocre at best the past seven games in a row; his only touchdown in last week’s 27-23 nailbiter over the Bombers (+9 road dogs) came on the ground, but at least it was the winning score. The UNDER is on a 4-0 roll for Saskatchewan and 5-1 on the last six betting lines between the Riders and the Bombers.
Friday, September 10
CALGARY (8 - 1) at EDMONTON (2 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-4 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 7-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, September 11
MONTREAL (6 - 3) at HAMILTON (5 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-4 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 7-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (5 - 4) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Sunday, September 12
SASKATCHEWAN (6 - 3) at WINNIPEG (2 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 143-108 ATS (+24.2 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 143-108 ATS (+24.2 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 130-97 ATS (+23.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Friday, September 10
CALGARY vs. EDMONTON
Calgary is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Edmonton is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
Saturday, September 11
MONTREAL vs. HAMILTON
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing Montreal
TORONTO vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of British Columbia's last 15 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games at home
Sunday, September 12
SASKATCHEWAN vs. WINNIPEG
Saskatchewan is 1-6-1 SU in its last 8 games ,on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Week 11 CFL Games
Calgary (8-1) @ Edmonton (2-7) - Alberta rivals meeting for third time in five weeks, four nights after Stampeders crushed Edmonton 52-5, in a game Calgary led 33-5 at half. Calgary outscored Eskimos 108-20 in two meetings this year; total yardage in two games was 1,014-480. Stamps won last six games, covering last four, scoring 56-48-52 points last three gams. Eskimos are 2-3 at home, with losses by 15-1-10 points; they are 2-4 vs spread as an underdog, 1-1 at home.
Montreal (6-3) @ Hamilton (5-4) - Montreal hurting without star QB Calvillo (ribs); sub MacPherson eligible to come off injured list for this. TiCats won last four games, beating Argos, Winnipeg twice each; they lost 37-14 at Montreal in Week 4 (+7), in game that was just 10-6 at half. Hamilton won last three home games after losing home opener by point to Riders. Als are 2-2 on road; they're dog for first time in 2010.
Toronto (5-4) @ BCLions (2-7) - BC (-2) lost 24-20 at Toronto back in Week 4; Argos ran ball for 169 yards in game they trailed 17-10 at half. Toronto is 2-2 on road, with two wins by total of just 3 points. Lions snapped 7-game skid with upset win at Montreal last week; they're 0-4 at home, losing by 19-4-5-13 points. BC picked off seven passes in last three games, after four picks in first sx contests.
Saskatchewan (6-3) @ Winnipeg (2-7) - Roughriders lost last three road games, by 20-4-3 points; they held off Bombers 27-23 last week (-9), in game where Winnipeg outgained them by 35 yards. Three of Riders' last four games were decided by four or less points. Bombers lost their last five games; they're 2-2 at home, losing 36-34 to Argos, 39-28 to TiCats. Last four Saskatchewan games stayed under the total.
CFL Week 11 Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Eskimos (+11, 54)
Less than a week after suffering a 52-5 beating at the hands of the Stampeders, the Eskimos must face once more their rivals from Alberta. This time it’s in front of their home crowd in Edmonton but it shouldn’t be any easier.
The Eskimos will be without two pillars: running back Arkee Whitlock (foot injury) and special team leading man Chris Ciezki.
The Stampeders come to Edmonton on a six-game winning streak and they’ve won their last five games against the Eskimos. On the bright side for Edmonton, kick returner Tristan Jackson will be back in action after spending nine weeks on the injury list.
The stats are lopsided against the Eskimos who have the worst offensive production in the CFL (167 points) and the most generous defense (305 points allowed). It’s quite the opposite for the Stampeders who boast the most explosive attacking unit (323 points) and the cheapest defense (182 points allowed).
Pick: Calgary
Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-3, 52)
The Alouettes were stunned earlier this week when Walter Spencer, their top special teams player, was almost killed outside a bar in Montreal. A loss in Hamilton could cost the Alouettes first place in the East.
Adrian McPherson comes back from a knee injury to try and replace Anthony Calvillo, who’s still recovering from that nasty hit he took a few weeks ago. McPherson insists he’s in game shape and vows he will be able to run the ball at ease despite wearing a brace for precautionary reasons.
The Alouettes want to bounce back from a tough loss to B.C. in front of their Montreal fans but it won’t be an easy task against these TiCats. Hamilton renewed its confidence after two straight wins against the Toronto Argonauts.
Pick: Hamilton
Toronto Argonauts at B.C. Lions (-4.5, 48.5)
The Argonauts head into Vancouver without some their key players. Dominic Picard and Taylor Robertson will be the only two regular starters on offensive line for Toronto. The Argos will also be without star receiver Jeremaine Copeland (elbow) and Adriano Belli (foot) who has been one of their pillars on defense.
To have a shot at victory in this one, the Argonauts will need to QB Cleo Lemon and RB Cory Boyd to be as productive as they were earlier in the season. But for that to happen, the refurbished offensive line will need to play above expectations.
The Lions are a better team than their record indicates. Just as the Alouettes.
Pick: British Columbia
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+4, 56.5)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, last in the East, suffered another blow on Labour Day when their starting QB Buck Pierce fell to another serious injury in a 27-23 loss to these Roughriders. Backup QB Steven Jyles is now the one who will try to stop a five-game losing streak.
In four starts this season, Jyles completed almost 63 percent of his pass attempts, gained 1322 yards through the air, threw eight touchdown passes and was intercepted only twice. He has the second-best QB rating in the CFL (104.1) right behind Anthony Calvillo of the Alouettes (111.6).
Grey Cup finalists last year, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have proved to be an enigma so far in 2010, mainly because of a lack of consistency on offense. After scoring tons of points in their first two games of the regular season against the Alouettes and the Lions, the Riders have had ups and downs with an offense that featured the best and the worst from QB Darian Durant.
Despite losing key players like John Chick, Stevie Baggs, Rey Williams and Eddie Davis during the offseason, the Riders’ stopper unit has been as reliable as last year. But this defense is not totally healthy.
Safety James Patrick, who leads the CFL for interceptions with seven, missed practice this week because of a knee injury that will most likely prevent him from playing on Sunday. Linebacker Daniel Francis is also injured but expected to play against the Bombers.
Pick: Saskatchewan