CFL Power Poll: Week 12
By ALEX SMART
1: Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-2/1-0) (8-2 ATS) (LW: 2) Twenty unanswered points in the 4th quarter propelled the Roughriders to their CFL-best eighth win of the season and back to the top of the heap in the CFL Power Poll after a two-week drop from the top spot. It was a game that Winnipeg looked to have covered from the get-go, but Michael Bishop’s massive fouth quarter gave the ‘W’ to Riders bettors in their Week 11 betting clash. In total, Bishop went 24/30 for 370 yards and three scores without a pick.
Next up: Away @ BC (5-5)
2: Montreal Alouettes (7-3/1-0) (6-4 ATS) (LW: 3) All of a sudden, one of the best-looking teams in the CFL is the Montreal Alouettes. They’ve very quietly gone about their business in a miserable East, and all but have the division wrapped up 11 weeks into the season. On Sunday, they crushed Toronto 45-19, easily covering the spread for the sixth time this year. QB Anthony Calvillo moved into third place in CFL history for passing touchdowns last week. He leads the league with 24 TD tosses, and has to be considered the odds-on favorite to win the ’08 Most Outstanding Player award.
Next up: Away @ Calgary (6-4)
3: Edmonton Eskimos (6-4/0-1) (6-3-1 ATS) (LW: 1) The green and gold will really be kicking themselves for this one at the end of the season. Edmonton had a chance to stick within a game of the Riders for the top spot in the West and put Calgary two games in its rear view mirror when they hosted the Stampeders in Week 11 CFL betting. QB Ricky Ray threw for 357 yards on the night, but it wasn’t enough as Calgary upset Edmonton 38-33 in a game that easily went over the total. There are four-straight games against Eastern Division opponents on the horizon, so there’s still time for the Eskies to get back ahead of Calgary in the standings.
Next up: Home vs. Hamilton (2-8)
4: Calgary Stampeders (6-4/1-0) (6-4 ATS) (LW: 4) It’s splitting hairs to determine whether Calgary should be in front of or behind Edmonton, but Calgary has still been too inconsistent for its CFL bettors this year. After getting dumped by Edmonton in Week 10, the Staps played a much better offensive game in their 38-33 upset victory last week. Though Joffrey Reynolds and the rushing game were held to just 60 total yards, QB Henry Burris threw for 323 yards and three majors, including two in the fourth quarter to give Calgary bettors a much-needed victory.
Next up: Home vs. Montreal (7-3)
5: British Columbia Lions (5-5/1-0) (5-5 ATS) (LW: 6) For the second-straight week, the BC Lions have gotten a ton of offensive production from QB Buck Pierce. After recording almost 450 yards of total offense two weeks ago, he racked up another 375 yards in the Lions’ 35-12 romp of the hapless Ti-Cats. As expected, BC completed a deal this week that sent RB Joe Smith to the Blue Bombers for Charles Roberts. Blink will likely make his debut this week when the Lions host division-leading Saskatchewan in a game they absolutely must win if they have any chance of repeating as Western Division champs.
Next up: Home vs. Saskatchewan (8-2)
6: Toronto Argonauts (4-6/0-1) (3-6-1 ATS) (LW: 5) Perhaps it’s time to make a change in Toronto. With the Argos chances of winning the East on the line in Montreal, the Argonauts laid a massive egg in the second half, getting rolled by the Alouettes 45-19 in the most lopsided game of the Week 11 betting slate. Once again, Toronto had no running game to speak of, rushing 10 times for 38 yards. RBs Dominick Dorsey and Jamal Robertson have combined for just 475 rushing yards on the year, fewer rushing yards than all seven other starting running backs in the CFL. Though it wouldn’t be surprising if HC Rich Stubler is fired this week. A loss at home to Winnipeg next week will certainly be the last straw.
Next up: Home vs. Winnipeg (2-8)
7: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-8/0-1) (2-8 ATS) (LW: 7) As each week goes by, the Blue Bombers seem to sink to new lows. This week, Winnipeg held a 31-14 lead over the Roughriders going into the fourth quarter of last week’s matchup. QB Michael Bishop carved up the Bombers defense, throwing for 370 yards to send the Bombers to their eighth loss of the season, and dropping them three games behind BC for the crossover playoff spot. They remain two behind Toronto in the East, but if they have any playoff aspirations whatsoever, they must beat the Double Blue next week.
Next up: Away @ Toronto (4-6)
8: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-8/0-1) (3-7 ATS) (LW: 8) Apparently it doesn’t matter who is under centre for Hamilton. The Ti-Cats stand very little chance of competing either way. After Casey Printers only completed seven of his 15 passes, Richie Williams came in and went 2/6 for 47 yards before yielding to third-stringer Quinton Porter. The offensive line gave up seven sacks. Pair those with four turnovers, and the equation doesn’t look too good. Don’t look for things to get much better next week either when they head across the country to face the Eskies.
Next up: Away @ Edmonton (6-4)
Friday, September 12
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WINNIPEG (2 - 7) at TORONTO (4 - 6) - 9/12/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing on a Friday this season.
TORONTO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.
TORONTO is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) off a loss against a division rival since 1996.
TORONTO is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-4 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MONTREAL (7 - 3) at CALGARY (6 - 4) - 9/12/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Saturday, September 13
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HAMILTON (2 - 8) at EDMONTON (6 - 4) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SASKATCHEWAN (7 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 - 5) - 9/13/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 123-92 ATS (+21.8 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 123-92 ATS (+21.8 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 82-50 ATS (+27.0 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-4 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-4 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Trend Sheet
Friday, September 12
7:00 PM WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
10:00 PM MONTREAL vs. CALGARY
Montreal is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games
Saturday, September 13
7:00 PM HAMILTON vs. EDMONTON
Hamilton is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
10:00 PM SASKATCHEWAN vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Saskatchewan is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when playing British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games
British Columbia is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Week 12 CFL games
Friday, September 12
Winnipeg (2-8) @ Toronto (4-6)-- Bombers had a 31-14 lead at home in fourth quarter last week, lost 34-31 to Saskatchewan; they're 0-4 on road, losing by 14-9-7-13 points, 1-5 vs spread as underdog. Argonauts lost three of last four games, giving up a hefty 38.3 ppg since beating Bombers 18-11 in Week 6 (-3.5). In season's first meeting, Argos (+2.5) won 23-16 at Winnipeg.
Montreal (7-3) @ Calgary (6-4)-- Red-hot Alouettes won five in row, scoring 37.2 ppg, but they lost 23-19 at home to Calgary in Week 3 (-4.5), their first loss of season, and only time in '08 Als scored less than 30 points. Road team won last five Stampeder games, with Stamps losing last two at McMahon, to Eskimos, Riders. Five of last seven Calgary games went over the total.
Saturday, September 13
Hamilton (2-8) @ Edmonton (6-4)-- TiCats lost last three games, by 13-3-23 points; they allowed 33.4 ppg in last five games and lost last three on road by 27-7-13 points. Eskimos won 19-13 in Week 5 at Hamilton (-2)- they scored 31+ points in seven of last nine games, are 6-0 this year when they allow less than 34 pts. Seven of the last nine Hamilton games went over the total.
Saskatchewan (8-2) @ BCLions (5-5)-- Roughriders (+6) came back from 17 down in 4th quarter last week, beat the Bombers 34-31 to avoid third loss in last four games; they won 26-16 in Vancouver back in Week 2 (+6). Lions won three of last four at home since the Week 2 loss- last week was first time in last six games they allowed less than 20 points.