CFL Betting Update
By Bodog
Imagine if the AFC East and the NFC West were the only two divisions in the NFL. That would certainly change the way you bet on football. You’d grow very familiar with those eight teams after seeing them beat each other up all season long. You’d also have to be very careful when looking at the standings throughout the year. The New England Patriots may have a great record, but how many times did they play the St. Louis Rams?
You see where we’re driving. The CFL has all the betting advantages and disadvantages you’d expect from an eight-team league, and with the season more than halfway over, casual bettors who rely on the standings for guidance are ripe for the picking. Let’s harvest.
Friday: Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders (9:00 p.m. ET)
Things look great for the Stampeders (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) and their supporters. They’ve got the best record in the CFL, scoring the most points (35.9 per game) and giving up the fewest (20.2). But take a closer look: Each of Calgary’s last five games (5-0 SU and ATS) was against either the Edmonton Eskimos or B.C. Lions, the bottom two teams in the West Division.
Calgary’s only faced one winning team this year: the Roughriders (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS). And the way the Riders are playing, they won’t be a winning team much longer. They lost 40-20 to the Stamps in Week 4 as 2-point road dogs against the CFL odds; since then, Saskatchewan is 3-3 SU and ATS, alternating home wins and road losses. QB Darian Durant has three touchdown throws and 10 interceptions over that span. The UNDER is 5-1.
Saturday: Hamilton Tiger-Cats at British Columbia Lions (10:00 p.m. ET)
Hamilton is 5-5 SU and ATS. British Columbia is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. But check out those point differentials. The Ti-Cats have been outscored 255-235 on the season, compared to 260-245 for the Lions. Not much difference there. All five of Hamilton’s wins SU and ATS are against either the Winnipeg Blue Bombers or Toronto Argonauts, hardly the class of the CFL.
Meanwhile, the Lions absorbed a seven-game losing streak (1-6 ATS) with just one of those defeats coming at the hands of a losing team (Edmonton). British Columbia was also operating mostly without starting QB Casey Printers (seven TDs, three INTs), who has guided the Leos to a pair of wins SU and ATS over the past two weeks. They’ll be favored in this contest.
Sunday: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (1:00 p.m. ET)
Watch out for regression to the mean. The Blue Bombers (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) have a positive point differential thus far at 278-273. They’ve also played a pretty tough road schedule, going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS with no losing teams to fatten up their record. But in their return to Canad Inns last week, the Bombers crushed Saskatchewan 31-2 as 3.5-point home dogs.
As for the Argos (5-5 SU and ATS), they’ve been outscored 280-220 on the season. Remember all those close wins we talked about earlier this year? Now the Boatmen have lost three in a row (twice to Hamilton, once to B.C.), and they’re in danger of getting the underdog tag in this matchup. At least Toronto managed to sign DE Ricky Foley, who led the league last year with 12 sacks.
Sunday: Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (4:00 p.m. ET)
There’s really no dancing around the Eskimos’ record (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS). Yes, three of their last four games were against Calgary, but their defense has been ventilated by everyone in the league now. The OVER is 6-1 in Edmonton’s last seven games. While it’s a positive sign from a football standpoint that Eric Tillman has been hired as the new GM, Tillman is also a pariah from a community standpoint, and nothing on or off the field is going to magically change overnight.
The situation in Montreal is a bit more fluid. The Alouettes (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) had yet to declare at press time whether Anthony Calvillo (bruised sternum, ribs) will start against Edmonton. Second-stringer Adrian McPherson proved capable in last week’s 27-6 win at Hamilton (-3.5), going 21-of-37 for 238 yards, a TD, and a pick through the air and adding 121 yards rushing on 16 carries. Edmonton’s in trouble facing either of these gentlemen.
Friday, September 17
CALGARY (9 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (6 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 143-109 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 143-109 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 95-57 ATS (+32.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 130-98 ATS (+22.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 82-51 ATS (+25.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
CALGARY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-3 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, September 18
HAMILTON (5 - 5) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 7)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Sunday, September 19
WINNIPEG (3 - 7) at TORONTO (5 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 15 since 1996.
TORONTO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.
TORONTO is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-4 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (2 - 8) at MONTREAL (7 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Friday, September 17
CALGARY vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games at home
Saskatchewan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Saturday, September 18
HAMILTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Hamilton is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of British Columbia's last 12 games when playing Hamilton
British Columbia is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Hamilton
Sunday, September 19
WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 10 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games at home
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Edmonton is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Montreal is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home
CFL Week 12 Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Friday
Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders (+3.5, 55.5)
This game was supposed to be featuring the best teams in the West, maybe even the best the CFL had to offer. But the Roughriders’ unexplainable 31-2 loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers has us reconsidering our expectations here.
While the Stampeders are still the team to beat, with an impressive 9-1 record (their best start since 1996), the Roughriders appear to be in panic mode. In Regina there are plenty of questions about starting QB Darian Durant who now has thrown more interceptions than TD passes (14-11).
Not surprisingly, the Green Riders made some personnel moves. The axe fell on wide receiver Prechea Rodriguez and it now looks like the unpredictable Ryan Grice-Mullen, a former Lion, will now be the kick returner replacing Dominique Dorsey. Grice-Mullen has speed but he is not always reliable.
The Stampeders have won four of their last 10 games against the Riders in Saskatchewan. Earlier this season, the Stampeders beat the Riders 40-20 at McMahon Stadium.
Pick: Calgary
Saturday
Hamilton Tiger Cats at B.C. Lions (-3.5, 49.5)
After a miserable start, the Lions now seem back on track with consecutive wins against Montreal and Toronto. B.C. QB Casey Printers looks like a QB still recovering from a knee injury out on the field but he’s been opportunistic.
Meanwhile the Tiger-Cats aren't getting as much as they would like from RB DeAndra’ Cobb and WR Matt Carter, who was injured in the Alouettes game and won’t be available.
DE Garrett McIntyre also got hurt last week and remains doubtful. But the team did improve defensively by signing DE Stevie Bagg who registered 12 sacks and 55 tackles last season with the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
The TiCats won their last two games against the Lions last season but had lost the nine previous meetings.
Pick: B.C.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-1, 51.5)
A game against Winnipeg is just what the doctor ordered for the slumping Argos. Toronto looks to snap its three-game losing streak against at home vs. the Blue Bombers.
But Winnipeg just knocked out off Saskatchewan with Steven Jyles taking snaps at QB. The Bombers will show up in Toronto playing with house money. They've got nothing to lose.
And it's not like the Argos are striking fear into opponents. All the good the Argos did at the start of the season seem like a distant memory now.
QB Cleo Lemon is multiplying mistakes and gaffes with every game. And RB Cory Boyd, who was so sensational earlier on, will not play after because of a concussion. Toronto will also be without OT Rob Murphy, DT Adriano Belli and possibly SB Jeremaine Copeland.
Pick: Winnipeg
Sunday
Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (-12, 52.5)
If all goes according to the plan, QB Anthony Calvillo will be back behind center after missing two games because of a bruised sternum. The veteran pivot says he feels fine and will wear new shoulder pads that should provide better protection.
The swift and elusive Adrian McPherson showed last week he can be a bigger part of Montreal's offense with or without Calvillo on the field.
The Eskimos do have a new GM in Eric Tillman and you can bet some players will try to impress the new boss but the real immediate reinforcement might come from Fred Stamps, who's expected back after missing the last two games due to injury. Stamps was the easier the best receiver in the CFL in 2009.
To replace Arkee Whitlock and Chris Ciezki, the Eskimos will likely go to RB Daniel Porter; a former star from Louisiana Tech. Safety Elliott Richardson should also be back in the formation after missing nine games because of a wrist fracture.
Pick: Montreal