CFL Week 13 Odds and Picks
By Charles-Andre Marchand
Montreal Alouettes at Edmonton Eskimos (+1.5, 54)
The Montreal Alouettes are still weakened by injuries and that could be a serious problem against an Eskimos team that seems stronger than it did earlier this year now that it's protecting QB Ricky Ray better. The absence of defensive back Dwight Anderson (hip) makes the Montreal secondary much more vulnerable. Still battling the effects of a concussion, middle linebacker Shae Emry will also be missed while Ramon Guzman and Diamond Ferri will try to fill in the gap.
Keep in mind that WR Kerry Watkins injured as well.
On Edmonton’s side, not only did the offense make some progress but defensively they have improved thanks to young DE Julius Williams. The Eskimos will probably take full advantage of the recent lack of chemistry between QB Anthony Calvillo and his receivers.
If the Alouettes don't start running the ball more often, they could be in for a very long night in Edmonton.
Pick: Edmonton
B.C. Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-1.5, 50)
These two teams are making everyone forget their terrible starts now that they are back in the thick of things in the West Division. Don’t count them out for the playoff race since both squads will play six of their last seven games against divisional rivals.
The Lions have won four in a row while the Riders are on a three-game winning streak. The Lions currently lead the CFL allowing only 22.2 points per game, but their recent strong stretch has brought that average down. B.C. has allowed just 42 points over the last four games.
Ken Miller's return at the helm of the Riders has been a turning point for the entire team and especially for QB Darian Durant. He has eight TD passes in his last three games and now averages better than nine yards per pass attempt.
This should be a close one but since it is played in Regina, we have to go with the Riders.
Pick: Regina
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (+3.5, 48.5)
After picking up a key win in Montreal, the Blue Bombers are now in a great position to widen the gap at the top of the East Division against the weakest link of the CFL, the Toronto Argonauts.
While Buck Pierce and his troops will work in the deadly silence of Rogers Stadium, the second-place Montreal Alouettes will have much more adversity at Commonwealth Stadium.
Pierce didn’t take the usual abuse last week and should be in top shape to keep the Bombers attack rolling against a Toronto defense that isn't as stingy as it has been in the recent years. Meanwhile, the Argos' offense isn't scaring anyone - even with Steven Jyles behind center.
That said, the danger for Winnipeg is to have a letdown after a very emotional win against the Alouettes while playing on a short week. But how can the Bombers flop after last year's terrible campaign now that they have a chance to run away with first place in the East?
Pick: Winnipeg
Calgary Stampeders at Hamilton Tiger Cats (Pick’em, 54.5)
With the Stampeders and Tiger-Cats squaring off in Moncton, New Brunswick, this could be the toughest game on the board for bettors. Being the second Touchdown Atlantic celebration, there will be lots of distractions around.
However, Calgary is fighting for first place in the West and must feel a sense of urgency. A bye week to start the playoffs will be a strong motivating factor. Also keep in mind that neither team will have much of a home advantage even if the Tiger-Cats are listed as the home team. The Stampeders are unbeaten in five road games this season and should keep that streak going.
Pick: Calgary
CFL Betting Notes - Week 13
By David Schwab
The 2011 CFL regular season has begun to really heat up as teams continue to jockey for position for a run at this year’s Grey Cup. Last Friday, Edmonton moved back into a tie for the lead in the West Division with a 38-23 upset of Hamilton as a 4½-point road underdog. Saturday’s double-header kicked-off with Saskatchewan outlasting Toronto 30-20 as an eight-point home favorite. In the nightcap, British Columbia shocked Calgary 32-19 as a four-point road underdog. Winnipeg wrapped-up Week 12 with yet another upset as it knocked-off Montreal 25-23 as an eight-point road underdog to extend its lead over the Alouettes to two games in the East.
The following is brief preview of this week’s games along with the opening point spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.com.
Friday, September 23
Montreal Alouettes (-1) at Edmonton Eskimos Over/Under (54)
Montreal’s quest for a third-straight CFL title keeps hitting bumps in the road as it is now 6-5 straight-up on the year and 5-6 against the spread. The Alouettes are 2-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last five games. Edmonton is 7-4 SU (6-5 ATS) overall and 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) at home. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its last 10 games.
The Alouettes cruised to a 27-4 victory over the Eskimos in Week 7 as 6 ½-point home favorites with the total staying ‘under’ the 54 ½-point line. They are 5-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall, but just 2-7 ATS in their last nine trips to Edmonton. Montreal still has the league’s top-ranked passer (Anthony Calvillo), rusher (Brandon Whitaker), and receiver (Jamel Richardson) in total yards.
Saturday, September 24
BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-1½) Over/Under (50)
BC has firmly worked itself into the playoff picture with four straight wins to get to 5-6 SU (6-5 ATS) on the year. It is 3-3 SU (4-2 ATS) in six road games and the total has stayed ‘under in its last seven games overall. Saskatchewan is still in last-place in the West, but is back in the hunt for the playoffs with three straight wins to go to 4-7 both SU and ATS. It is 2-4 SU (2-4 ATS) at home this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games overall.
The Lions stuffed the Roughriders 24-11 the first time they met this season as 3½-point home favorites with the total staying ‘under’ the 53 ½-point line. BC is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games of this series overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games played in Saskatchewan. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 10 of the last 14 meetings. The Lions’ defense is ranked first in the league in points allowed; giving up an average of 22.5 a game.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3) at Toronto Argonauts Over/Under (48½)
Winnipeg now has the best record in the CFL at 8-3 SU (8-3 ATS). It is 4-1 SU (4-1 ATS) on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its last seven games. Toronto has now lost three straight games to fall to a woeful 2-9 SU. It is 4-7 ATS overall, but 1-3 ATS at home. The total has stayed ‘under’ in its last four games.
The Blue Bombers have won both of the previous meetings this season with a 22-16 win as one-point home favorites in early July, followed by a 33-24 victory as 3 ½-point road underdogs two weeks later. Winnipeg is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games in Toronto and the total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last seven games played there. The Argonauts are last in the league in scoring with a total of just 206 points on the year.
Sunday, September 25
Calgary Stampeders at Hamilton Tiger Cats (PICK) Over/Under (54½)
Calgary is now 7-4 SU (6-5 ATS) overall, but remains a perfect 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) on the road. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last nine games, including the last three. Hamilton is now 5-6 both SU and ATS after two straight losses. It is 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in six home games and the total has gone ‘over’ in seven of its last eight games overall.
The Stampeders rolled to a 32-20 victory over the Tiger-Cats in Week 6 as 3 ½-point home favorites. The total crept just ‘over’ the 51-point line. They are now 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the total has stayed ‘under’ in the last five meetings in Hamilton. These two teams are ranked second and third in scoring this season with a combined average of just under 50 points a game.
CFL Week 13
Montreal (6-5) @ Edmonton (7-4) - Alouettes lost three of four games since beating Edmonton 27-4 (-6.5) in Week 7; Als lost three of last four road games, with setbacks by 8-7-23 points- they're 4-5 as favorite, 1-2 on road. Edmonton is 7-0 when it scores 24+ points, 0-4 when it does not, but they've lost last two home games. Alouettes allowed 25+ points in seven of their 11 games. All five Montreal road games went over the total, but eight of last ten Eskimo games stayed under.
BC Lions (5-6) @ Saskatchewan (4-7) - Lions won five of last six games after 0-5 start, first win of which was 24-11 (-3) over Roughriders back in Week 6; Saskatchewan is 3-0 since changing coaches during bye week, winning by 20-23-10 points. This is fourth road game in last six weeks for Lions, who are 4-2 vs spread on road, winning last three SU. Six of last seven Lion games, seven of last nine Rider games stayed under total. Riders are 4-2 when they allow 24 or less points, 0-5 otherwise.
Winnipeg (8-3) @ Toronto (2-9) - Surprising Bombers have already won twice against Toronto this year, 22-16 (-2) in Week 2, 33-24 (+3) here in Week 4. Underdogs are 9-2 vs spread in Winnipeg games this year, with Bombers failing to cover last three tries as a favorite- they're 4-1 on road, with wins by 8-9-2-13 points (0-1 as road fave). Toronto is 0-3 since its bye, losing by 13-22-10 points. Under is 8-3 in Winnipeg games, 4-0 in Argonauts' last four contests.
Calgary (7-4) @ Hamilton (6-5) - TiCats were 4-1 when they went out to Calgary and lost 32-20 (+4) at McMahon, starting them on 2-4 skid. Hamilton's home loss to Edmonton last week was their first loss in five home games- they've allowed 32+ points in five of last six games. Seven of last eight TiCat games went over the total. Stampeders are 5-0 on road this season, with three of five wins by 4 or less points. Calgary is 6-0 if it scores more than 21 points- they were favored in last nine games.
MONTREAL (6 - 5) at EDMONTON (7 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when playing on a Friday since 1996.
MONTREAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 - 6) at SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 9 or more games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in September games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-56 ATS (+26.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (8 - 3) at TORONTO (2 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-4 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (7 - 4) vs. HAMILTON (5 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games
Edmonton is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. SASKATCHEWAN
British Columbia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of British Columbia's last 14 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Saskatchewan's last 9 games
WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Winnipeg is 7-15-1 SU in its last 23 games ,when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
CALGARY vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Calgary's last 12 games when playing Hamilton
Calgary is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Hamilton is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games