CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The march towards this year's Grey Cup Playoffs continued this past weekend in the CFL with a few teams pulling off huge wins to help their cause. Hamilton got the ball rolling last Friday night with a 33-19 victory over Toronto as a 3½ -point underdog on the road. Later that night, Saskatchewan snapped a four-game skid with a 31-17 win over British Columbia as a three-point road underdog that secured a spot in the playoffs.
Saturday's action started with Montreal rolling over Edmonton 47-24 as a three-point road underdog to firm up its grasp on the sixth and final seed in the postseason. Calgary tightened its grip on the West Division title with a 38-11 victory over Winnipeg as a prohibitive 16-point favorite at home.
The following is a brief betting preview for Week 16's games in the CFL with the opening pointspread and 'over/under' lines provided by 5Dimes.
Friday, Oct. 11
British Columbia vs. Calgary Stampeders
Point-spread: Calgary -7½
Total Line: 53
The Lions are two games back in the West Division title race at 9-5 straight-up on the year. They are 7-7 against the spread after failing to cover in last week's loss. While BC is a tough out when playing at home, it is just 3-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The total has gone OVER in four of its last five road games.
Calgary continues to steamroll its way towards the West title with six SU wins in its last seven games on its way to the best record in the CFL at 11-3. It is 9-5 ATS overall including a 4-3 record ATS at home. The Stampeders are the also the highest scoring team in the league with an average of 31.9 points a game.
These two have already met twice this season with the home team winning each game both SU and ATS. Calgary is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of those games. BC is just 6-14-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings between the two.
Saturday, Oct. 12
Edmonton Eskimos vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -10
Total Line: 54½
Edmonton is left to play the role of spoiler after last week's loss to Montreal dropped its overall record to just 3-11 SU on the year. The Eskimos have hung tough ATS with a record of 6-8 and they are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. They are 4-2 ATS on the road this season and the total has now gone OVER in 10 of their last 12 road games.
The return of running back Kory Sheets to the Roughriders' lineup last Friday added a much needed spark to a sagging Saskatchewan offense. Even after missing the previous few games, he is still ranked second in the CFL in rushing with 1,302 yards. The Roughriders are now 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games.
Saskatchewan won both games on the road against Edmonton this season SU, but they were split 1-1 ATS. The total went OVER in both contest and it has gone OVER in 10 of the last 13 meetings in Saskatchewan. The series is tied 3-3 SU and ATS in the last six games.
Monday, Oct. 14
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Montreal Alouettes
Point-spread: Montreal -12
Total Line: 50½
Winnipeg has been riding out the string since late summer with just two SU wins in its first 14 games. It is 4-10 ATS and the total has stayed UNDER in six of seven road games this year. The Blue Bombers are averaging 19.9 points a game, while allowing a league-high 32.8 points a game.
The Alouettes continue to climb their way back to .500 on the year with back-to-back victories over Edmonton and Saskatchewan in their last two games. They are 6-8 SU overall with an 8-6 record ATS. They are 3-4 SU and ATS at home and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the seven games.
Montreal opened the season with a 38-33 victory over Winnipeg as a 3½-point road favorite. It lost to the Blue Bombers 19-11 the following week as a seven-point favorite at home. This series is tied 5-5 SU in the last 10 meetings with Winnipeg holding a 7-3 advantage ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the 10 games.
Toronto Argonauts vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Point-spread: Hamilton OFF
Total Line: OFF
Toronto will look to avenge last week's loss in the back-end of this home-and-home series. It still has a two game lead over the Tiger-Cats in the East Division title race at 9-5 SU (8-6 ATS). The Argonauts are 6-1 SU on the road this season while covering in six of the seven games as well. The total has gone OVER in five of these seven road games.
Hamilton's win last Friday night locked-up a spot in the playoffs and evened its mark on the year at 7-7 both SU and ATS. It is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of its last four outings. The Tiger-Cats are 4-3 SU at home this season, but a costly 2-5 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in five of those seven games.
These two also met on opening day with Toronto coming away with a 39-34 victory as a 3 ½-point home favorite. It now has a 6-4 SU edge in the last 10 meetings and a 7-3 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in six of the 10 games.
Week 16 CFL
British Columbia (9-5) @ Calgary (11-3) — Calgary is on roll, opening two-game lead in west while winning six of last seven games; they’re 4-3 as home favorites this year (6-1 SU), with four of six home wins by 11+ points. Lions had 3-game win streak snapped by Riders last week; they’re 1-3 as underdogs this year, 3-4 SU on road, with losses by 12-26-1-8- they won last two road games. Teams split first two meetings this year; Stampeders (-3.5) won season opener 44-32 at home, running ball for 200 yards in game they led 31-6 at half, then lost 26-22 (+3.5) on road in Week 8, despite +3 turnover ratio (had three INTs). Lions won four of last six visits here, but home teams have won four of last five series games, after losing eight of nine before that. Three of BC’s last four games stayed under the total; three of last four series games went over.
Edmonton (3-11) @ Saskatchewan (9-5) — Eskimos lost their last ten games that weren’t with Winnipeg; they lost 39-18 (+2.5) to Riders in season opener (turned ball over four times (-4) trailed 22-1 at half), then 30-27 (+4) in Week 9, when Saskatchewan gained 487 yards and was +3 in turnovers. Edmonton lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 4-8-16 points. Last four series games went over the total, as did eight of last 11 Eskimo games overall, but four of Riders’ last five stayed under. After leading Toronto 15-1 at half two weeks ago, Edmonton was outscored 80-31 in last three halves; they’re 3-2 as a road dog this year, losing away games by 10-5-3-3, with wins at Hamilton/Winnipeg. Roughriders ended 4-game skid with upset win in Vancouver last week; they lost last two home games, are 3-3 as home favorites this year.
Winnipeg (2-12) @ Montreal (6-8) — Teams split meetings in Weeks 1-2; lot of coaches from those two games have been fired since; Bombers are 1-11 since upsetting Alouettes 19-11 (+7) in Week 2—they’re 1-7 vs spread in last eight games, losing last two weeks by combined score of 91-28- they failed to cover last four road games, losing by 23-23-18-27 points. Winnipeg was outscored 57-17 in second half of last three games; they’ve won three of last four games with Alouettes, with four of last five meetings played here staying under the total. Montreal won its last two games, outscoring foes 45-6 in first half; they’re 3-3 as favorites this year, 1-3 at home- they’re 3-4 SU at home, with wins by 5-1-5 points. Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 series games. Last three Bomber games and four of last five Montreal home games went over the total.
Toronto (9-5) @ Hamilton (7-7) — TiCats (+3.5) upset Argos 33-19 in Rogers Centre last week, their first series win in last five tries; that snapped Toronto’s 4-game win streak. Argos lost four of last six visits here, with losses by 9-5-15-19 points; they’ve won/covered last six away games, despite being underdog in three of the six-- they trailed last seven games at halftime, getting outscored 37-7 in first half the last two weeks. Argos outscored last five opponents 115-50 in second half. Only team to beat Argos on road this were BC Lions, who won 24-16 (-7) over Toronto back in Week 2. Toronto (-3.5) won 39-34 at home in first meeting this year, in season opener. Hamilton is 6-3 in its last nine games overall after a 1-4 start; they’re 4-3 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 5-23-8-2 points. Five of last six series games went over total.
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BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 5) at CALGARY (11 - 3) - 10/11/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 46-22 ATS (+21.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-4 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (3 - 11) at SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 5) - 10/12/2013, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (2 - 12) at MONTREAL (6 - 8) - 10/14/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.
MONTREAL is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-4 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (9 - 5) at HAMILTON (7 - 7) - 10/14/2013, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-3 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-4 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
British Columbia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
British Columbia is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Calgary's last 11 games at home
EDMONTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Edmonton's last 13 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Saskatchewan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games on the road
Winnipeg is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
TORONTO vs. HAMILTON
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Hamilton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Lions at Stampeders: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
B.C. Lions at Calgary Stampederes (-7, 53)
The BC Lions are struggling to maintain their position in the West Division after suffering a rare home loss, but their confidence in backup quarterback Thomas DeMarco gives them a chance when they visit the division-leading Calgary Stampeders on Friday. DeMarco has shown flashes of injured starter Travis Lulay in the two games since Lulay suffered a separated shoulder, throwing for 286 yards and recording a 21-yard run last week against the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Unfortunately for the Lions, DeMarco also threw three picks in that contest, something he’ll need to control better against a Calgary defense that has 18 interceptions.
The Stampeders have dealt with their share of injuries to key personnel and it has not slowed them at all as veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn can attest. Even though starting pivot Drew Tate was 3-for-4 last week in his first pass attempts since Week 2, Glenn’s strong performance in Tate’s absence (169-for-247 passing with 14 touchdowns to five interceptions) will make him tough to bench. With other important players such as wide receiver Joe West in full health as well, Calgary’s problems are ones most teams would love to have.
LINE: Calgary opened as a 7.5-point home favorite and has been bet down to -7. The total is steady at 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 40s (9 degrees) with partly cloudy skies and a 30 percent chance of rain with winds blowing SE at 3 mph.
ABOUT THE LIONS (9-5, 7-7 ATS): BC’s defense averages a league-best 246.7 passing yards allowed and is second in rushing yards allowed per game with 86.6. Linebackers Adam Bighill and Solomon Elimimian play a big part in containing opposing offenses, with Bighill leading the team with with 72 tackles and six sacks, while Elimimian has 53 tackles, two sacks and three interceptions. Veteran quarterback Buck Pierce has seen limited snaps since arriving from the BC Lions, completing 6-of-13 passes as he becomes reacquainted with the team that launched his CFL career.
ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (11-3, 9-5 ATS): West caught eight passes for 120 yards in his first action since injuring his shoulder in Week 4. Running back Jon Cornish was named offensive player of the week and Canadian player of the week after rushing for a season-high 208 yards with two touchdowns against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to overtake Kory Sheets for the league rushing lead. Cornish led the league in rushing last season with a career-high 1,457 yards and is 42 yards away from matching that total with four games remaining.
TRENDS:
* Lions are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
* Lions are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Lions last five road games.
* Over is 9-2 in Stampeders last 11 home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Calgary K Rene Paredes leads the league in kicking points with 166 - four shy of his career-best. Paredes has made 41-of-43 field goal attempts.
2. The Stampeders are tied for the league lead in sacks with 48.
3. BC is 3-4 on the road; Calgary is 6-1 at home.
Eskmos at Roughriders: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Edmonton Eskimos at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-10, 54.5)
Running back Kory Sheets returned last week to halt the Saskatchewan Roughriders losing skid. Sheets and the Roughriders host the Edmonton Eskimos on Saturday hoping to regain some of the ground they lost in the West Division playoff race. Saskatchewan is tied with the BC Lions, four points behind the Calgary Stampeders for second in the division and will need Sheets and quarterback Darian Durant to play well in the final four regular-season games in order to compete for a first-round bye.
The Eskimos are barely alive in their hunt for the final playoff spot, but they will start quarterback Mike Reilly despite his recent concussion concerns after being knocked around for much of the season. Reilly has 3,345 passing yards even though Edmonton has allowed 45 sacks, while also running for a team-high 539 yards. The Eskimos lost to the Roughriders 30-27 at Edmonton in August and are 0-6 against divisional opponents.
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (3-11): Slotback Fred Stamps is the only player in the league with more than 1,000 receiving yards. Stamps, who has 1,086, has reached the 1,000-yard mark in each of his last five seasons. Defensive end Marcus Howard leads the team with nine sacks, but Edmonton’s defense has collapsed in recent efforts, allowing 80 points over the last six quarters as part of a division-worst 409 points allowed this year.
ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (9-5): Saskatchewan acquired defensive end Alex Hall from the Winnipeg Blue Bombers this week. Hall, who leads the league in sacks with 15, will be a free agent after this season and did not plan on staying in Winnipeg, which is last in the league. Hall joins a defense that already has 47 sacks thanks to a defensive line that includes Jermaine McElveen and Ricky Foley (seven sacks apiece), but has been lacking explosiveness without injured linebacker Renauld Williams.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Eskimos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. West.
* Roughriders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 10-1-1 in Eskimos last 12 road games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Saskatchewan traded non-import OL Patrick Neufeld and a fourth-round draft pick in 2015 to Winnipeg for Hall.
2. Edmonton RB Hugh Charles has 1,217 total combined yards.
3. Roughriders K Chris Milo is 4-for-8 on field goal attempts over the last three games after starting the season 30-for-31.
Blue Bombers at Alouettes: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes (-11, 50.5)
The Montreal Alouettes are making the most of their playoff push with victories in each of their last two games. The Alouettes will clinch the final playoff spot with a win over the struggling Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Monday. Montreal's offense came alive last week as it scored a season-high 47 points on the strength of four touchdown passes by quarterback Josh Neiswander, who is likely to start again against Winnipeg.
The Blue Bombers have turned their attention to next season. Winnipeg, mired in a four-game losing skid, has scored 279 points - 61 fewer than any other team - and faith in quarterback Max Hall (81-for-139 for 974 yards, four touchdowns, eight interceptions) is quickly diminishing. Running back Will Ford has emerged as a bright spot in the Blue Bombers attack after running for a career-high 156 yards last week, but without a quarterback, Winnipeg will be in tough to win a third game before the regular season ends.
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (2-12): Winnipeg traded star defensive end and league sacks leader Alex Hall to the Saskatchewan Roughriders for non-import offensive lineman Patrick Neufeld and a draft pick. The move weakens the Blue Bombers already porous defense, which has allowed a league-worst 459 points. Linebacker Henoc Muamba is tied for second in the league with 86 tackles.
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (6-8): Quarterback Anthony Calvillo said he will be healthy in time for the final game of the regular season. Montreal has struggled to find an identity on offense without the veteran pivot, who has not played since Week 8. Montreal’s defense, led by linebackers Chip Cox and Kyries Hebert, leads the league in interceptions with 22 and allows a league-low 82.6 rushing yards per game.
TRENDS:
* Blue Bombers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Alouettes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Under is 8-3-1 in Alouettes last 12 home games.
* Blue Bombers are 1-6 ATS in their last seveb games following a S.U. loss.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Cox - a potential candidate for most outstanding defensive player - leads the league with 90 tackles and has four interceptions and six sacks.
2. Ford has 1,168 total combined yards in his second CFL season.
3. Montreal and Winnipeg opened the season by splitting road victories in a home-and-home series.
Argonauts at Tiger-Cats: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (Pick, 56)
The Toronto Argonauts will look to stay hot on the road when they visit the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Guelph, Ont., on Monday to determine who wins the season series between the provincial rivals. The Tiger-Cats won in Toronto last week and trail the Argonauts by four points for the East Division lead. A Toronto victory coupled with a loss by Montreal on Monday against Winnipeg would clinch the division title and a first-round playoff bye for the Argonauts.
Toronto has won six straight road games to compensate for its 3-4 record at Rogers Centre that includes a 33-19 loss to the Tiger-Cats last week.. Hamilton quarterback Henry Burris leads the league with 4,173 passing yards, but will have to contend with Argonauts defensive back Patrick Watkins, who is tied for the league lead in interceptions with five. The Tiger-Cats limited Toronto running back Chad Kackert to 43 rushing yards last week and will need to do so again to contain the Argonauts' varied offense.
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (9-5): Quarterback Ricky Ray is close to returning to regular action, but coach Scott Milanovich would not confirm whether Ray or Zach Collaros would start Monday. Collaros was limited to one rushing touchdown and 277 passing yards against Hamilton last week. Slotback Chad Owens returned to the lineup last week and caught six passes for 52 yards, and returned three punts for 19 yards.
ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (7-7): Wide receiver Luke Tasker, son of former NFL standout Steve Tasker, caught his first touchdown pass in his second CFL game last week. Running back C.J. Gable has emerged as a force in his first year in the league, with 665 rushing yards and 490 receiving yards for a combined 10 touchdowns. Former Toronto linebacker Brandon Isaac has four sacks and one interception since joining Hamilton.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Argonauts are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Tiger-Cats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Tiger-Cats last 10 games in October.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Burris is 27 rushing yards short of reaching 5,000 in his career.
2. Toronto allows a league-worst 294.5 passing yards per game, while Hamilton has allowed a league-worst 28 passing touchdowns.
3. The Tiger-Cats are 5-1 against divisional opponents.