Betting the CFL
By Bodog
There’s a reason the football is shaped funny. Anyone who bet on the CFL matchup from Week 18 between the Montreal Alouettes and Toronto Argonauts received an extra hit of adrenaline during the game’s dying moments. The Alouettes (–4.5 road faves) were tied 30-30 with Toronto and attempting a field goal from 36 yards out; Damon Duval missed, then chaos ensued as the Argos tried to prevent a game-winning rouge. Montreal RB Dahrran Diedrick eventually recovered the bouncing ball in the end zone for the touchdown and the surprise cover.
Home dogs are still 14-6 ATS this year, but their momentum has been squashed heading into the final week of the regular season. We’re projecting two more home dogs before the playoffs start. But what else do they have to play for besides pride?
Friday: Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
The Stampeders have already clinched the West Division at 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS. The Blue Bombers have already been eliminated from the playoffs at 4-13 SU and 10-7 ATS. Winnipeg may be holding Fan Appreciation Night at Canad Inns Stadium, but last year, the Bombers finished the season at home with a 39-17 loss to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+1.5). Hamilton, however, did have second place in the East on the line.
Calgary is playing a relatively meaningless season finale on the road after crushing the Ti-Cats 55-24 last week as a 6-point home chalk. The Stamps are on a six-game zigzag SU and ATS that’s due to come up for a loss. Winnipeg, meanwhile, lost another close one last week, 16-13 in overtime to the Edmonton Eskimos (–8 home faves). That’s eight losses for the Bombers by four points or fewer. Check our latest CFL odds to see how many points Winnipeg gets this week.
Saturday: British Columbia Lions at Hamilton Tiger-Cats
The Tiger-Cats (9-8 SU and ATS) figure to join Winnipeg as home dogs this week. Hamilton is already assured of second place in the East for another year, but after that thumping at the hands of Calgary, the Ti-Cats should be motivated to enter the playoffs on a winning note and send the home crowd happy. To do so, they’ll have to play spoiler against the Lions (7-10 SU and ATS), who need this win to have a shot at the Grey Cup. They’re tied with Edmonton for third place in the West, only the Eskimos have the tiebreaker.
The Lions were on the verge of salvaging their season after a 1-7 SU and ATS start, but the meltdown of QB Casey Printers (10 TDs, six INTs) and a pair of overtime losses put B.C. on the brink of elimination. Undaunted, Travis Lulay (7 TDs, 10 INTs) has fought back valiantly in his second go-around as the starter, earning wins over Calgary (–8.5 at home) and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (+3 away) – the two best teams in the West – to keep B.C. alive. But talk about basketcases: The Leos are 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games as the favorites.
Saturday: Edmonton Eskimos at Saskatchewan Roughriders
We should know by kickoff whether or not the Eskimos (7-10 SU and ATS) need to win this one. They’re the hottest team in the league at 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS over the past six games, including a 39-24 win at home over the Roughriders (–2.5) two weeks ago. QB Ricky Ray (10 TDs, 16 INTs) is expected back under center this week after missing that game with an upper-body injury. Saskatchewan (9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS) has dropped four straight SU and ATS, as well as two of three to the Eskimos this year at 0-3 ATS. The Green Riders are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games against losing teams. They won their first six games at Taylor Field this year at 4-2 ATS before coming up dry against Toronto (+11.5) and Calgary (+1).
Sunday: Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes
The shenanigans have already begun for this rematch. The Alouettes (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) are reportedly giving QB Anthony Calvillo the day off; Adrian McPherson will get the start instead, and while McPherson (62.9 passer rating) has shown some flash in limited action, he’s a definite downgrade from Calvillo (32 TDs, seven INTs). The Als were 1-4 ATS in their last five before Calvillo shredded Toronto for 412 yards passing and three TDs, his third brilliant performance against the Boatmen this year at 2-1 SU and ATS. The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Montreal’s last nine games as the home favorite and 13-6 in Toronto’s last 19 on the road.
Blue Bombers host Stampeders to end regular season
By: David Schwab
The West Division champion Calgary Stampeders close out their regular season on the road against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who have already been eliminated from postseason play. This Week 19 matchup is scheduled for Friday, Nov.5 at Canad Inns in Manitoba with kickoff scheduled for 5 p.m. (PT).
Calgary appears to be peaking at the right time after completely dismantling Hamilton 55-24 last Friday night. The Stampeders opened a 24-point lead at the half and coasted to the lopsided victory as a six-point home favorite. They even took the total of 53 ½ ‘over’ on their own.
The win moves Calgary to 12-5 straight-up on the year and 11-6 against the CFL spread. The Stamps have long since clinched the West Division and they will face the winner of the Edmonton/British Columbia at Saskatchewan semifinal game in the CFL playoffs.
Calgary is 5-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its last 10 games overall.
Winnipeg was eliminated from the playoffs two weeks ago and played like it in last Saturday’s 16-13 OT loss to Edmonton. The Blue Bombers did cover as an eight-point road underdog and the total stayed well ‘under’ the 50-point line.
The loss dropped Winnipeg to 4-13 SU for the season, but it improved to 10-7 ATS. If there were a consolation prize for close losses the Bombers would receive it after setting a record by losing eight games by four points or less.
They went winless on the road this season but were 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of their last nine games overall.
This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season. Calgary won the first game 23-20 in Week 5, but Winnipeg covered as a 6 ½-point road underdog. The total stayed ‘under’ the 55-point line. It was Stampeder WR Ken-Yon Rambo’s first game back after going down with a knee injury in 2009 and he made his presence known all game long. Rambo ended the day with six receptions for 86 yards, including a 20-yard touchdown catch to put Calgary on the board first in the first quarter.
Stampeder QB Henry Burris completed 28-of-38 attempts for 340 yards and two TD’s, while Steve Jyles went 17-of-30 for 227 yards and one TD for the Bombers. Terrence Edwards had a big day for Winnipeg in the loss with six catches for 162 yards and one TD.
BetED.com has opened the Stampeders as a three-point favorite and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 53 ½. Head-to-head, Calgary has won four out of the last seven games SU, but Winnipeg has gone 5-2 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of the last 10 games between these two.
Calgary will be playing to keep everyone healthy while Winnipeg will be playing for next season. Given the fact that the Bombers have kept so many games close this year, especially at home, take the three points and Winnipeg in this one.
CFL Betting: BC Lions favored at Hamilton
By: David Schwab
It is do or die for the British Columbia Lions who need a win in their final regular game against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats to still have a chance to make it into the postseason. This Week 19 matchup is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 6 at Ivor Wynne Stadium in Hamilton. Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. (PT).
The final game of the regular season is really another playoff game for B.C. Last week was its first and the Lions beat Saskatchewan 23-17 to stave off elimination from the postseason. B.C. covered as a three-point home favorite and the total stayed ‘under’ the 53 ½-point line.
The win moved the Lions to 7-10 both straight-up and against the CFL spread for the year. They are currently tied with Edmonton for third place in the West Division but the Eskimos hold the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series between the two 2-1.
A win in this game coupled with an Edmonton loss sends the Lions to Saskatchewan for next week’s playoff semifinals. B.C. is 4-4 SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has gone ‘over’ in seven of its last 10 games.
Hamilton will host next week’s semifinal playoff game against Toronto despite getting crushed by Calgary 55-24 last week. The Tiger-Cats clinched the fourth seed by virtue of Toronto’s 37-30 loss to Montreal. Hamilton failed to cover against the Stampeders as a six-point road underdog and the total went way ‘over’ the 53 ½-point line.
The Tiger-Cats are 9-8 both SU and ATS on the year. They are 5-3 SU and ATS in the eight games they have played at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in six of their last 10 games overall.
This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season. Hamilton pulled out a 35-31 win in Week 12 as a 3 ½ point-road underdog. The total went way ‘over’ the 50-point line. This game was decided on a Kevin Glenn to Chris Bauman TD pass with 1:26 left to play after B.C. fumbled the ball away at its own 26-yard line to give Hamilton a chance for the win.
Glenn ended the game completing 22-of-33 attempts for 292 yards and three TD’s while Casey Printers went 22-of-40 for 312 yards and three TD’s for the Lions. Travis Lulay has started the past few games at quarterback for B.C. and should get the call this time around.
BetEd.com has opened the Lions as a 3 ½-point favorite and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 52. Head-to-head, B.C. has won seven out of the last 10 games SU, but Hamilton is 6-4 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last ten games.
Hamilton has nothing on the line in this game while B.C. is still playing in hopes of extending its season at least one more game. The Lions have won two straight games to keep their chances alive and are counting on the third win to be the charm. Take the Lions minus the 3 ½ points in this one.
CFL odds favor Alouettes at home versus Argonauts
By: David Schwab
The Toronto Argonauts take on the East Division champion Montreal Alouettes for the second week in a row in what could be a preview of a showdown in the playoff finals two weeks from now. This Week 19 matchup is scheduled for Sunday, Nov. 7 at Percival-Molson Memorial Stadium in Montreal with kickoff set for 1 p.m. (PT).
Toronto is still trying to figure out how it lost last week’s game. A missed field goal by Alouette kicker Damon Duval on the game’s last play was kicked around and ended up recovered by Dahrran Diedrick in the end zone for a Montreal touchdown.
The play was reviewed and upheld giving the Alouettes the 37-30 win. Montreal covered as a 4 ½ point road favorite and the total went ‘over’ the 48=point line.
The loss dropped the Argonauts to 8-9 both straight-up and against the CFL spread. It also sealed their fate as the fifth seed in the playoffs which entitles them to take a trip to Hamilton next week to face the Tiger-Cats in the semifinal round of the playoffs. The winner of that game gets yet another shot at knocking off the Alouettes in the playoff finals in Montreal on Sunday, Nov. 21.
Toronto is 4-4 SU and ATS on the road this year and the total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its last 10 games.
Last week’s win pushed Montreal’s overall record to 12-5 SU but it is just 8-9 ATS. The Alouettes are currently tied with Calgary for the best record in the league which entitles them to a week off while they await the winner of next week’s semifinal. They are 7-1 SU at home this season and 5-3 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of their last six games overall.
This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season. Montreal crushed Toronto 41-10 the series opener in Week 5. The Alouettes were a 10 ½-point home favorite and the total stayed ‘under’ 53. Montreal QB Anthony Calvillo lit things up by completing 30-of-36 attempts for 394 yards and two TDs.
Toronto evened the score in Week 7 with an impressive 37-22 win as a 7 ½-point home underdog. The total went ‘over’ the 52-point line. This time it was Argonaut QB Cleo Lemon who came out on top, completing 13-of-19 attempts for 269 yards and three TDs.
BetED.com has opened Montreal as a seven-point favorite this time around and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 49 ½. Head-to-head besides the three games this season, Montreal has won the previous seven games SU and ATS as the Alouettes have completely dominated this series over the past three years. This season was Toronto’s first win either SU or ATS in the last 10 games.
Despite Toronto’s troubles against Montreal, you have to question how much motivation the Alouettes will bring into this game. The Argonauts may not get the actual win, but take them to keep it close enough to cover with the seven points.
Edmonton Eskimos need win at Roughriders
By: David Schwab
It is a 'win and you're in' scenario for the Edmonton Eskimos as a victory over the Saskatchewan Roughriders in this season finale would punch their ticket to the playoffs. This Week 19 matchup is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 6 at Mosaic Stadium in Regina SK. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. (PT).
All Edmonton needs to clinch the sixth and final spot in the playoffs is a win in this game. The Eskimos can still get in with a loss and a B.C. loss to Hamilton, but after last week’s 16-13 win over Winnipeg, they would love nothing more than to ride into the postseason on a four-game winning streak. They failed to cover against the Blue Bombers as an eight-point home favorite and the total stayed well ‘under’ the 50-point line.
Edmonton is currently tied with B.C. for third place in the West Division. The Eskimos would actually be in Saskatchewan again next week for playoff semifinal game against the Roughriders should they clinch a berth. They are 7-10 both straight-up and against the CFL spread this season.
The Eskimos are 2-6 SU in eight road games this year and 3-5 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of their last five games.
Saskatchewan is coming off its fourth straight loss after last week’s 23-17 setback to B.C. The Roughriders were a three-point road underdog and the total stayed ‘under’ the 53 ½-point line. They had previously clinched the third seed in the playoffs, but need to stop the bleeding with a win in an effort to build some momentum going into the postseason.
The loss dropped them to 9-8 SU for the year and 8-9 ATS. Saskatchewan is 6-2 SU at home this season but just 4-4 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last 10 games overall.
These two teams have to be very familiar with one another with this the fourth game between them this season. Saskatchewan drew first blood in the series with a 24-20 win in Week 3 but failed to cover as a seven-point home favorite. The total stayed ‘under’ the 58-point line.
Edmonton evened things up with a 17-14 win in Week 9. The Eskimos covered as a 6 ½-point home underdog and the total stayed ‘under’ 57. They came out on top again just two weeks ago in a convincing 39-24 win over the Roughriders as a 2 ½-point home underdog. This time the total went way ‘over’ the 51 ½-point line.
BetED.com has opened Saskatchewan as a one-point home favorite and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 52. Head-to-head, Edmonton has won four out of the last six games SU and is 5-1 ATS. The average margin of victory in these six games has been less than six points with only one game won by double-digits. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last four games between the two.
This game may end up being meaningless if B.C. loses earlier in the day as neither team will want to show their hand in light of having to play one another again next week. Nonetheless, momentum is with Edmonton so stick with the Eskimos plus the one point in this one.
Friday, November 5
CALGARY (12 - 5) at WINNIPEG (4 - 13)
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WINNIPEG is 84-60 ATS (+18.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, November 6
BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 10) at HAMILTON (9 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
HAMILTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (7 - 10) at SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 146-113 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 146-113 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 133-101 ATS (+21.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 83-52 ATS (+25.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 6-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-4 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Sunday, November 7
TORONTO (8 - 9) at MONTREAL (12 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
MONTREAL is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing with 8 days rest since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 8-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Friday, November 5
CALGARY vs. WINNIPEG
Calgary is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Winnipeg
Calgary is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Winnipeg is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 10 games at home
Saturday, November 6
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. HAMILTON
British Columbia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of British Columbia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing British Columbia
Hamilton is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
EDMONTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Edmonton's last 10 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Saskatchewan's last 10 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Sunday, November 7
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
Toronto is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games
Montreal is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games
Week 19 CFL Games
Winnipeg (4-13) @ Calgary (12-5) - Bombers (+6) lost 23-20 at McMahon back in Week 5, game that started them on 2-11 tailspin. Winnipeg lost three in row and six of last seven games, but they’ve covered seven of last nine, including four of last five on road. Stampeders are 3-4 in last seven games, after 9-1 start; they’re 5-3 on road, 3-2 as road favorite. Winnipeg is 4-4 at home (3-0 as home dog), with losses by 2-11-4-19 points. Eight of last ten Bomber games stayed under the total, but over is 11-1 in last dozen Calgary games, with their last five all going over total.
BC Lions (7-10) @ Hamilton (9-8) - TiCats (+3.5) had five takeaways (+3), ran ball for 157 yards in 35-31 win over Lions back in Week 12 in Vancouver; Hamilton is 8-4 after a 1-4 start- they’re 5-3 as home favorite, winning last two at home by combined score of 76-14. BC is 6-3 in last nine games after 1-7 start- they scored 34.5 ppg in winning three of last four road games (4-3 as road dog). TiCats got crushed 55-24 in Calgary last week, after having won previous three games by combined score of 106-17. Over is 7-3 in BC’s last ten games, 3-7 in Hamilton’s last ten.
Edmonton (7-10) @ Saskatchewan (9-8) - Red-hot Eskimos won five of last six games despite being underdog in five of the six; they beat Roughriders 39-24 at home two weeks ago, third straight win for home team in this year’s series (Riders (-7) won 24-20 in Week 3, lost 17-14 (-7) in Edmonton six weeks later). Skidding Saskatchewan lost last four games, allowing 30 ppg, losing last two at Taylor Field (24-19/36-24). Eskimos are 3-5 as road dog this year, with last four road losses all by 17+ points. Under is 9-3 in last twelve Roughrider games. Bigger game here for Edmonton than Riders, with playoff spot up for grabs.
Toronto (8-9) @ Montreal (12-5) - Alouettes won two of three meetings this year, winning 37-30 last week (-4.5) at Rogers Centre, after losing there 37-22 in Week 7 (-7.5) and winning 41-10 (-10) in previous game played here. Als are 7-1 at home, 4-4 as home favorite (1-3 in last four); they gave up 30+ points in four of last six games. Argos are 4-4 on road, also 4-4 as road dog, losing away games by 14-31-15-21 points (they won last two away games). Eight of ten Toronto games stayed under the total, as did six of Montreal’s eight home games.